Suicide and the South African business cycle
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Pitot, A
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396138 , vital:69153 , xlink:href="https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC-18880c26e4"
- Description: Using monthly data for January 2006 - December 2015, this study explores the relationship between suicide and the South African business cycle. Contrary to most previous research, the findings reveal that suicide is pro-cyclical.
- Full Text:
Family functioning and socioeconomic status in South African families: A test of the social causation hypothesis
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Booysen, Frikkie , Wouters, Edwin
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/433176 , vital:72948 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-017-1600-x"
- Description: Optimal family relationships are central to individual well-being. The focus of this paper is on family functioning and how socioeconomic status (SES) explains family functioning. Ecological theory states that a family’s socioeconomic context is determined by macro-systemic factors, thereby influencing individuals’ perceptions of family functioning. Within this context, the social causation hypothesis asserts that social conditions influence family functioning. This paper uses the Family Attachment and Changeability Index as measure of family functioning. SES is viewed as multidimensional and individual-, household-, and subjective SES indices are developed using multiple correspondence analysis. Multivariate regression models suggest that household- and subjective SES are associated with higher levels of perceived flexibility in the family. There is no association between SES and family members’ attachment to each other. In general, the findings support the social causation hypothesis.
- Full Text:
Satisfaction with family life in South Africa: The role of socioeconomic status
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Booysen, Frikkie
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396115 , vital:69151 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-017-9929-z"
- Description: This paper investigates the determinants of self-reported satisfaction with family life, applied to the South African context, with socioeconomic status (SES) as the main covariate and family functioning as the secondary covariate of interest. An individual-, household-, and subjective SES index is constructed via multiple correspondence analysis. Structural equation modelling (SEM) and multiple-group SEM (MGSEM) are used to analyse the role of SES in explaining satisfaction with family life. Higher levels of SES, especially household SES and subjective SES, are related to greater satisfaction with family life. Family functioning, in terms of better family flexibility, is associated with higher satisfaction with family life. The MGSEM results indicate that the role of family flexibility in explaining satisfaction with family life is similar across SES quartiles; family flexibility is an important predictor of family-life satisfaction, regardless of SES quartile.
- Full Text:
Exports, capital formation and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Feddersen, Maura , Nel, Hugo , Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396035 , vital:69145 , xlink:href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/aref/article/view/162150"
- Description: In South Africa the export sector is frequently accorded a special role in encouraging faster economic growth. Nonetheless, a question that remains unresolved is whether higher export growth indeed leads to higher economic growth and what particular role exports may play within the overall economic growth process of the country. This study applies Johansen’s cointegration procedure, impulse response functions, variance decomposition analysis and Granger causality tests to shed light on the channels through which export growth may impact South Africa’s economic growth rate. Quarterly time series data ranging from 1975q1 to 2012q4 is employed in the study’s empirical tests. The results support the notion that the role of exports lies in their ability to encourage investment and capital formation. While export growth directly supports higher economic growth in the short-run, the long-term effect was found to lie in supporting faster capital formation, and in turn, significantly increasing economic growth. Overall, a strategy of export-led growth that does not explicitly emphasize the export-capital-growth connection is likely to fall short of reflecting the dynamics contained within the exports-growth relationship in South Africa.
- Full Text:
Art investment in South Africa: portfolio diversification and art market efficiency
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Snowball, Jeanette D , Scott, Brett
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/64794 , vital:28601 , http://www.dx.doi.org/10.17159/2222-3436/2016/v19n3a4
- Description: Art has been suggested as a good way to diversify investment portfolios during times of financial uncertainty. The argument is that art exhibits different risk and return characteristics to conventional investments in other asset classes. The new Citadel art price index offered the opportunity to test this theory in the South African context. Moreover, this paper tests whether art prices are efficient. The Citadel index uses the hedonic regression method with observations drawn from the top 100, 50 and 20 artists by sales volume, giving approximately 29 503 total auction observations. The Index consists of quarterly data from the period 2000Q1 to 2013Q3. A vector autoregression of the art price index, Johannesburg stock exchange all-share index, house price index, and South African government bond index were used. Results show that, when there are increased returns on the stock market in a preceding period and wealth increases, there is a change in the Citadel art price index in the same direction. No significant difference was found between the house price index and the art price index, or between the art and government bond price indices. The art market is also found to be inefficient, thereby exacerbating the risk of investing in art. Overall, the South African art market does not offer the opportunity to diversify portfolios dominated by either property, bonds, or shares.
- Full Text:
Sport consumption patterns in the Eastern Cape: cricket spectators as sporting univores or omnivores
- Authors: Brock, Kelcey , Fraser, Gavin C G , Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/69362 , vital:29508 , https://doi.org/10.4102/jef.v9i3.64
- Description: Since its inception, consumption behaviour theory has developed to account for the important social aspects that underpin or at least to some extent explain consumer behaviour. Empirical studies on consumption behaviour of cultural activities, entertainment and sport have used Bourdieu’s (1984) omnivore/univore theory to investigate consumption of leisure activities. The aim of this study is to investigate whether South African cricket spectators are sporting omnivores or univores. The study was conducted among cricket spectators in the Eastern Cape at four limited overs cricket matches in the 2012/2013 cricket season. The results indicate that consumption behaviour of sport predominantly differs on the grounds of education and race. This suggests that there are aspects of social connotations underpinning sports consumption behaviour within South Africa.
- Full Text:
The good African society index
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396194 , vital:69157 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-015-0891-z"
- Description: This paper constructs a Good Society Index for 45 African countries, termed the Good African Society Index (GASI). The GASI consists of nine main indexes: (1) economic sustainability, (2) democracy and freedom, (3) child well-being, (4) environment and infrastructure, (5) safety and security, (6) health and health systems, (7) integrity and justice, (8) education, and (9) social sustainability and social cohesion. Each component is split into four sub-components for a total of 36 indicators. Tunisia ranks highest on the GASI, followed by Cape Verde and Botswana. Chad has the lowest GASI score, followed by Central African Republic and Cote d’Ivoire. The GASI is strongly related to the 2012 Human Development Index and Fragile States Index, to a lesser extent, GNI per capita.
- Full Text:
Art investment as a portfolio diversification strategy in South Africa
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Scott, Brett , Snowball, Jeanette D
- Date: 2015
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/67422 , vital:29086
- Description: publisher version , Art has been suggested as a good way to diversify investment portfolios during times of financial uncertainty. The argument is that art exhibits different risk and return characteristics to conventional investments in other asset classes. The new Citadel Art Price index offered the opportunity to test this theory in the South African context. The Citadel index uses the hedonic regression method with observations drawn from the top 100, 50 and 20 artists by sales volume, giving approximately 29 503 total auction observations. The Index consists of quarterly data from the period 2000Q1 to 2013Q3. A VAR of the art price index, Johannesburg Stock Exchange all-share index, house price index, and South African government bond index were used. Flowing from the VAR results, additional analyses included variance decomposition, impulse response, and, to determine volatility, variance and standard deviation measures for each index. Results show that, when there are increased returns on the stock market in the previous period and wealth increases, there is a change in the Citadel Art Price Index in the same direction. This finding is consistent with Goetzmann et al. (2009), who reported that there is a strong relationship between art and equity markets and that art price changes are driven by capital gains and losses. No significant difference was found between the house price index and the art price index, and neither between the art and government bond price indices. Overall, the South African art market does not offer the opportunity to diversify portfolios dominated by either property, bonds, or shares.
- Full Text:
Modelling stock return volatility dynamics in selected African markets
- Authors: King, Daniel , Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396104 , vital:69150 , xlink:href=" https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.11.008"
- Description: This paper examines whether accounting for structural changes in the conditional variance process, through the use of Markov-switching models, improves estimates and forecasts of stock return volatility over those of the more conventional single-state (G)ARCH models, within and across selected African markets for the period 2002–2012. In the univariate portion of the paper, the performances of various Markov-switching models are tested against a single-state benchmark model through the use of in-sample goodness-of-fit and predictive ability measures. In the multivariate context, the single-state and Markov-switching models are comparatively assessed according to their usefulness in constructing optimal stock portfolios. Accounting for structural breaks in the conditional variance process, conventional GARCH effects remain important in capturing heteroscedasticity. However, those univariate models including a GARCH term perform comparatively poorly when used for forecasting purposes. In the multivariate study, the use of Markov-switching variance–covariance estimates improves risk-adjusted portfolio returns relative to portfolios constructed using the more conventional single-state models. While there is evidence that some Markov-switching models can provide better forecasts and higher risk-adjusted returns than those models which include GARCH effects, the inability of the simpler Markov-switching models to fully capture heteroscedasticity in the data remains problematic.
- Full Text:
Subjective well-being in Africa
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Snowball, Jeanette D
- Date: 2015
- Language: English
- Type: article , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/61084 , vital:27946
- Description: Research on quality of life and subjective well-being (SWB) has witnessed a remarkable growth over the past four decades or so. Since Easterlin’s (1974) seminal contribution on the relationship between happiness and income, thousands of studies have followed that examine the intricacies of subjective well-being (for reviews, see Frey and Stutzer, 2002; Dolan et al., 2008; MacKerron, 2012). These studies have uncovered some very important aspects of individual well-being and have pointed to the fact that money or income is not always (as is often assumed) the most important determinant of SWB.
- Full Text:
A Note on the (Continued) Ability of the Yield Curve to Forecast Economic Downturns in South Africa
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Keeton, Gavin
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/395994 , vital:69142 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12053"
- Description: In 2002-2003, the South African yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that never materialised. This paper provides two reasons for this false signal. First, while the Reserve Bank never actually officially declared the start of a downswing, by alternative measures a downswing did actually occur. It is this severe weakness in economic activity at that time that the yield curve pointed to. Second, short-term interest rates in 2003 were higher than they should have been because of a mistake made in measuring consumer price inflation. Because South Africa had recently introduced an inflation-targeting regime, policy interest rates were, as a result of this error, kept too high for too long. This policy mistake was rectified as soon as the error in the Consumer Price Index was discovered. Thus, the yield curve in 2003 pointed to the reality that short-term interest rates were too high and risked pushing the economy into full blown recession. This is demonstrated by the fact that it was a fall in long bond interest rates that caused the yield spread to turn negative, indicating expectations that short-term interest rates would need to be cut – as indeed they were.
- Full Text:
Family functioning and life satisfaction and happiness in South African households
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Booysen, Frikkie
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396048 , vital:69146 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0485-6"
- Description: Families form an integral part of society and in fostering individual well-being. Despite the acknowledged importance of family, the association between family functioning and individual well-being outcomes have remained unexplored in the current body of knowledge. This paper explores the association between family functioning and reported levels of life satisfaction and happiness in South Africa. The paper employs the Family Attachment and Changeability Index (FACI8) to measure family functioning, using data from the 2011 South African Social Attitudes Survey. Four measures of family functioning are utilised, namely the aggregate FACI8 scale, the attachment and changeability sub-scales, and family functioning type. Improvements in the level of family functioning as well as in the levels of attachment and changeability are positively associated with life satisfaction and happiness. In addition, individuals living in midrange or balanced family functioning types are more satisfied with life and happier compared to persons living in extremely or moderately dysfunctional families. The findings highlight the importance of supportive intra-family dynamics in fostering greater individual well-being. This in turn places emphasis on the investigation of likely correlates of family functioning and impact evaluations of family-focused social work interventions’ impact on family functioning as areas for future research.
- Full Text:
Life satisfaction and education in South Africa: Investigating the role of attainment and the likelihood of education as a positional good
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396091 , vital:69149 , xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0452-2"
- Description: This paper explores various dynamics in the relationship between life satisfaction and education in South Africa using the 2008 National Income Dynamics Survey. The results indicate a strong positive association between educational attainment and individual satisfaction with life, which is true in the overall sample and for men and women. This positive relationship also holds for Black and Coloured individuals, but is insignificant in the Asian and White samples. Evidence indicates that education is a positional good, in that people who have attained more than the mean level of education in their relevant cluster are significantly more satisfied with life compared to those possessing less than the mean education.
- Full Text:
Determinants of student satisfaction with campus residence life at a South African University
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Snowball, Jeanette D , De Klerk, Vivian A , Radloff, Sarah E
- Date: 2013
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/68543 , vital:29281 , https://econrsa.org/publications/working-papers/determinants-student-satisfaction-campus-residence-life-south-african
- Description: Publisher version , Although there are a number of studies on the determinants of general quality of life among university students, these occur mainly in developed countries and do not focus specifically on campus-based residence life. It has long been accepted that factors outside the classroom (“the other curriculum”) can contribute to academic success, as well as the achievement of other important outcomes such as the appreciation of human diversity. Striving towards equality of residence life satisfaction across different racial and gender groups, for example, is thus important for academic outcomes and for the development of well-functioning citizens. This study is based on the 2011 Quality of Residence Life (QoRL) Survey, conducted at a South African university, comprising roughly 2 000 respondents. Based on descriptive analyses and ordered probit regressions, the study investigates the association between satisfaction with QoRL and (i) residence milieu and characteristics, (ii) direct and indirect discrimination, (iii) perceptions of drug and alcohol issues in residence, (iv) safety, and (v) individual student characteristics. One of the main findings is that there are no significant differences in satisfaction with QoRL across racial and gender groups; a finding that suggests significant progress in university transformation and equity goals. The general atmosphere and characteristics of residences are also important predictors of QoRL satisfaction. , Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) is a research programme funded by the National Treasury of South Africa.
- Full Text:
Does national sporting performance affect stock market returns in South Africa?
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , De Beer, Carl
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396023 , vital:69144 , xlink:href="https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC135922"
- Description: This study explores whether South African national sporting performance can influence investors in such a way that it has the ability to impact on market returns. Using standard event study methodology, this study determines the constant mean return using the daily All-Share price index on the JSE for the period of 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2010. This study focuses on three of South Africa's most popular sports, namely soccer, cricket and rugby, and examines if these three sports have the ability to influence market returns. Although there is some evidence of a relationship between stock returns and sporting performance in the descriptive analysis, the regression results indicate that sporting performance in South Africa does not significantly explain abnormal market returns on the JSE. The study provides a number of possible reasons for this finding and concludes by suggesting areas for future research.
- Full Text:
Stock returns and Friday the 13th effect in five African countries
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396127 , vital:69152 , xlink:href="https://www.ajol.info/index.php/aref/article/view/91060"
- Description: This study is concerned with Friday the 13th and daily stock market returns in five African countries. Using the MSCI Global Equity Indices during various periods, the evidence overwhelmingly suggests that there is no Friday the 13th effect.
- Full Text:
The gold of one’s ring is not far more precious than the gold of one’s heart: Reported life satisfaction among married and cohabitating South African adults
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Booysen, Frikkie
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396181 , vital:69156 , xlink:href=" https://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-012-9337-3"
- Description: This paper tests for differences in reported life satisfaction between married and cohabiting persons, i.e. the cohabitation gap, and in particular whether selection factors can explain the cohabitation gap. The paper also explores whether age at marriage and at start of cohabitation as well as the duration of relationship type matters for subjective well-being. Based on statistical and regression analysis of the 2008 National Income Dynamics Survey, married and cohabiting persons exhibit some differences in their respective determinants of life satisfaction. While the age at relationship commencement has no relationship with well-being, there is evidence to suggest that married people become more satisfied at a later stage in marriage, while cohabitants are more satisfied initially. A significant cohabitation gap exists (0.251), but after controlling for various selection factors, the cohabitation gap virtually disappears (0.042) and becomes insignificant, which suggests that marriage and cohabitation are very similar in South Africa. Relative income, absolute income, and education explain the largest part of the cohabitation gap. Against the global backdrop of an increasing trend towards cohabitation and declining marriage rates, the overall results of this paper suggest that, since a cohabitation gap no longer exists after controlling for selection factors, South Africans may as well not go the “official route” of entering into marriage, as cohabitation provides similar benefits in terms of its contribution to individual satisfaction with life.
- Full Text:
The relationship between marital status and life satisfaction among South African adults
- Authors: Botha, Ferdi , Booysen, Frikkie
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396207 , vital:69158 , xlink:href="https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC138900"
- Description: This article examines the association between marital status and reported life satisfaction in South Africa. Using the 2008 National Income Dynamics Survey, the relationship between marital status and life satisfaction is heterogeneous. In the overall sample, life satisfaction is significantly higher for married compared to widowed individuals, while the former are more satisfied than those from all other marital statuses. In the overall and female samples, married people are more satisfied compared to those from all other marital status groups. Married men are not significantly more satisfied than men from other marital statuses as a whole. Marriage is positively associated with life satisfaction among women, but not among men.
- Full Text:
A production function for cricket: the South African perspective
- Authors: Brock, Kelsey , Fraser, Gavin C G , Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396007 , vital:69143 , xlink:href="https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC124240"
- Description: Production functions are common to any productive activity. Although it may not appear obvious, cricket is no different. Production functions in cricket provide a wide range of information, utilised to enhance efficiency and maximize match success. Given these benefits, this study involved the derivation of a production function for the South African SuperSport Series and an analysis of technical efficiency. An econometric analysis was conducted on data from the 2004-2011 cricket seasons and it was concluded that the most optimal strategy for South African teams involved a combination of attacking batting and defensive bowling. Furthermore, South African teams had a relatively low variable substitutability and a high degree of technical efficiency.
- Full Text:
Firm age, collateral value, and access to debt financing in an emerging economy: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Ezeoha,Abel , Botha, Ferdi
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: To be catalogued
- Language: English
- Type: text , article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/396060 , vital:69147 , xlink:href="https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC31367"
- Description: This paper applies the Blundell and Bond system generalised method of moments (GMM) two-step estimator to examine the impact of age and collateral value on debt financing, using a panel of 177 non-financial companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over the period 1999 to 2009. The results show that South African firms have target leverage ratios and adjust their capital structures from time to time to achieve their respective targets, that the relationship between firm age and debt financing is non-monotonic, and that firms with higher collateral value are likely to face fewer constraints on borrowing and therefore have greater access to medium-term and long-term debts. Robustness tests also reveal that during start-up and maturity stages, a firm's access to debt markets is significantly influenced by investments in assets that are acceptable to external creditors as collateral. These findings suggest that debt financing policies could be more critical for firms in the start-up and maturity stages.
- Full Text: