List of Titles

Behaviour of quiet time ionospheric disturbances at African equatorial and midlatitude regions

Authors: Orford, Nicola Diane
Date: 2018
Subjects: Ionospheric storms , Ionospheric storms -- Africa , Ionosphere , Plasmasphere , Q-disturbances , Total electron content (TEC)
Language: English
Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62672 , vital:28228
Description: Extreme ionospheric and geomagnetic disturbances affect technology adversely. Prestorm enhancements, considered a potential predictor of geomagnetic storms, occur during quiet conditions prior to geomagnetic disturbances. The ionosphere experiences general disturbances during quiet geomagnetic conditions and these Q- disturbances remain unexplored over Africa. This study used TEC data to characterize the morphology of Q-disturbances over Africa, exploring variations with solar cycle, season, time of occurrence and latitude. Observations from 10 African GPS stations in the equatorial and midlatitude regions show that Q-disturbances in the equatorial region are predominantly driven by E x B variations, while multiple mechanisms affect the midlatitude region. Q- disturbances occur more frequently during nighttime than during daytime and no seasonal trend is observed. Midlatitude Q-disturbance mechanisms are explored in depth, considering substorm activity, the plasmaspheric contribution to GPS TEC and plasma transfer between conjugate points. Substorm activity is not a dominant mechanism, although Q-disturbances occurring under elevated substorm conditions tend to have longer duration and larger amplitude than general Q-disturbances. Many observed Q-disturbances become non-significant once the plasmaspheric contribution to the TEC measurements is removed, indicating that these disturbances occur within the plasmasphere, and not the ionosphere. Transfer of plasma between conjugate points does not seem to be a mechanism driving Q-disturbances, as the corresponding nighttime behaviour expected between depletions in the summer hemisphere and enhancements in the winter hemisphere is not observed. Pre-storm enhancements occur infrequently, rendering them a poor predictor of geomagnetic disturbances. Pre-storm enhancement morphology does not differ significantly from general quiet time enhancement morphology, suggesting pre-storms are not a special case of Q-disturbances.
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Date Issued: 2018

Updating the ionospheric propagation factor, M(3000)F2, global model using the neural network technique and relevant geophysical input parameters

- Oronsaye, Samuel Iyen Jeffrey

Authors: Oronsaye, Samuel Iyen Jeffrey
Date: 2013
Subjects: Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionospheric radio wave propagation , Ionosphere , Geophysics , Ionosondes
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:5434 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001609 , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionospheric radio wave propagation , Ionosphere , Geophysics , Ionosondes
Description: This thesis presents an update to the ionospheric propagation factor, M(3000)F2, global empirical model developed by Oyeyemi et al. (2007) (NNO). An additional aim of this research was to produce the updated model in a form that could be used within the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) global model without adding to the complexity of the IRI. M(3000)F2 is the highest frequency at which a radio signal can be received over a distance of 3000 km after reflection in the ionosphere. The study employed the artificial neural network (ANN) technique using relevant geophysical input parameters which are known to influence the M(3000)F2 parameter. Ionosonde data from 135 ionospheric stations globally, including a number of equatorial stations, were available for this work. M(3000)F2 hourly values from 1976 to 2008, spanning all periods of low and high solar activity were used for model development and verification. A preliminary investigation was first carried out using a relatively small dataset to determine the appropriate input parameters for global M(3000)F2 parameter modelling. Inputs representing diurnal variation, seasonal variation, solar variation, modified dip latitude, longitude and latitude were found to be the optimum parameters for modelling the diurnal and seasonal variations of the M(3000)F2 parameter both on a temporal and spatial basis. The outcome of the preliminary study was applied to the overall dataset to develop a comprehensive ANN M(3000)F2 model which displays a remarkable improvement over the NNO model as well as the IRI version. The model shows 7.11% and 3.85% improvement over the NNO model as well as 13.04% and 10.05% over the IRI M(3000)F2 model, around high and low solar activity periods respectively. A comparison of the diurnal structure of the ANN and the IRI predicted values reveal that the ANN model is more effective in representing the diurnal structure of the M(3000)F2 values than the IRI M(3000)F2 model. The capability of the ANN model in reproducing the seasonal variation pattern of the M(3000)F2 values at 00h00UT, 06h00UT, 12h00UT, and l8h00UT more appropriately than the IRI version is illustrated in this work. A significant result obtained in this study is the ability of the ANN model in improving the post-sunset predicted values of the M(3000)F2 parameter which is known to be problematic to the IRI M(3000)F2 model in the low-latitude and the equatorial regions. The final M(3000)F2 model provides for an improved equatorial prediction and a simplified input space that allows for easy incorporation into the IRI model.
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Date Issued: 2013

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Investigation into the extended capabilities of the new DPS-4D ionosonde

- Ssessanga, Nicholas

Authors: Ssessanga, Nicholas
Date: 2011
Subjects: Ionosondes , Ionosphere , Ionosphere -- Observations -- South Africa -- Hermanus (Cape of Good Hope) , Ionosphere -- Research -- South Africa -- Hermanus (Cape of Good Hope)
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:5472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005257 , Ionosondes , Ionosphere , Ionosphere -- Observations -- South Africa -- Hermanus (Cape of Good Hope) , Ionosphere -- Research -- South Africa -- Hermanus (Cape of Good Hope)
Description: The DPS-4D is the latest version of digital ionosonde developed by the UMLCAR (University of Massachusetts in Lowell Center for Atmospheric Research) in 2008. This new ionosonde has advances in both the hardware and software which allows for the promised advanced capabilities. The aim of this thesis was to present results from an experiment undertaken using the Hermanus DPS-4D (34.4°S 19.2°E, South Africa), the first of this version to be installed globally, to answer a science question outside of the normally expected capabilities of an ionosonde. The science question posed focused on the ability of the DPS-4D to provide information on day-time Pc3 pulsations evident in the ionosphere. Day-time Pc3 ULF waves propagating down through the ionosphere cause oscillations in the Doppler shift of High Frequency (HF) radio transmissions that are correlated with the magnetic pulsations recorded on the ground. Evidence is presented which shows that no correlation exists between the ground magnetic pulsation data and DPS-4D ionospheric data. The conclusion was reached that although the DPS-4D is more advanced in its eld of technology than its predecessors it may not be used to observe Pc3 pulsations.
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Date Issued: 2011

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Development of a neural network based model for predicting the occurrence of spread F within the Brazilian sector

- Paradza, Masimba Wellington

Authors: Paradza, Masimba Wellington
Date: 2009
Subjects: Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionosphere , F region
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:5460 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005245 , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionosphere , F region
Description: Spread F is a phenomenon of the ionosphere in which the pulses returned from the ionosphere are of a much greater duration than the transmitted ones. The occurrence of spread F can be predicted using the technique of Neural Networks (NNs). This thesis presents the development and evaluation of NN based models (two single station models and a regional model) for predicting the occurrence of spread F over selected stations within the Brazilian sector. The input space for the NNs included the day number (seasonal variation), hour (diurnal variation), sunspot number (measure of the solar activity), magnetic index (measure of the magnetic activity) and magnetic position (latitude, magnetic declination and inclination). Twelve years of spread F data measured during 1978 to 1989 inclusively at the equatorial site Fortaleza and low latitude site Cachoeira Paulista are used in the development of an input space and NN architecture for the NN models. Spread F data that is believed to be related to plasma bubble developments (range spread F) were used in the development of the models while those associated with narrow spectrum irregularities that occur near the F layer (frequency spread F) were excluded. The results of the models show the dependency of the probability of spread F as a function of local time, season and latitude. The models also illustrate some characteristics of spread F such as the onset and peak occurrence of spread F as a function of distance from the equator. Results from these models are presented in this thesis and compared to measured data and to modelled data obtained with an empirical model developed for the same purpose.
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Date Issued: 2009

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Forecasting solar cycle 24 using neural networks

- Uwamahoro, Jean

Authors: Uwamahoro, Jean
Date: 2009
Subjects: Solar cycle , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density , Ionospheric forecasting , Solar thermal energy
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:5468 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005253 , Solar cycle , Neural networks (Computer science) , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density , Ionospheric forecasting , Solar thermal energy
Description: The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near-Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating the various consequences of Space Weather. Several prediction techniques have been applied and have achieved varying degrees of success in the domain of solar activity prediction. These techniques include, for example, neural networks and geomagnetic precursor methods. In this thesis, various neural network based models were developed and the model considered to be optimum was used to estimate the shape and timing of solar cycle 24. Given the recent success of the geomagnetic precusrsor methods, geomagnetic activity as measured by the aa index is considered among the main inputs to the neural network model. The neural network model developed is also provided with the time input parameters defining the year and the month of a particular solar cycle, in order to characterise the temporal behaviour of sunspot number as observed during the last 10 solar cycles. The structure of input-output patterns to the neural network is constructed in such a way that the network learns the relationship between the aa index values of a particular cycle, and the sunspot number values of the following cycle. Assuming January 2008 as the minimum preceding solar cycle 24, the shape and amplitude of solar cycle 24 is estimated in terms of monthly mean and smoothed monthly sunspot number. This new prediction model estimates an average solar cycle 24, with the maximum occurring around June 2012 [± 11 months], with a smoothed monthly maximum sunspot number of 121 ± 9.
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Date Issued: 2009

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A feasibility study into total electron content prediction using neural networks

- Habarulema, John Bosco

Authors: Habarulema, John Bosco
Date: 2008
Subjects: Electrons , Neural networks (Computer science) , Global Positioning System , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:5466 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005251 , Electrons , Neural networks (Computer science) , Global Positioning System , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
Description: Global Positioning System (GPS) networks provide an opportunity to study the dynamics and continuous changes in the ionosphere by supplementing ionospheric measurements which are usually obtained by various techniques such as ionosondes, incoherent scatter radars and satellites. Total electron content (TEC) is one of the physical quantities that can be derived from GPS data, and provides an indication of ionospheric variability. This thesis presents a feasibility study for the development of a Neural Network (NN) based model for the prediction of South African GPS derived TEC. The South African GPS receiver network is operated and maintained by the Chief Directorate Surveys and Mapping (CDSM) in Cape Town, South Africa. Three South African locations were identified and used in the development of an input space and NN architecture for the model. The input space includes the day number (seasonal variation), hour (diurnal variation), sunspot number (measure of the solar activity), and magnetic index(measure of the magnetic activity). An attempt to study the effects of solar wind on TEC variability was carried out using the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) data and it is recommended that more study be done using low altitude satellite data. An analysis was done by comparing predicted NN TEC with TEC values from the IRI2001 version of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), validating GPS TEC with ionosonde TEC (ITEC) and assessing the performance of the NN model during equinoxes and solstices. Results show that NNs predict GPS TEC more accurately than the IRI at South African GPS locations, but that more good quality GPS data is required before a truly representative empirical GPS TEC model can be released.
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Date Issued: 2008

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Ionospheric total electron content variability and its influence in radio astronomy

- Botai, Ondego Joel

Authors: Botai, Ondego Joel
Date: 2006
Subjects: Electrons , Global Positioning System , Global Positioning System -- Data processing , Ionosphere , Ionospheric radio wave propagation
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:5473 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005258 , Electrons , Global Positioning System , Global Positioning System -- Data processing , Ionosphere , Ionospheric radio wave propagation
Description: Ionospheric phase delays of radio signals from Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites have been used to compute ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC). An extended Chapman profle model is used to estimate the electron density profles and TEC. The Chapman profle that can be used to predict TEC over the mid-latitudes only applies during day time. To model night time TEC variability, a polynomial function is fitted to the night time peak electron density profles derived from the online International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2001. The observed and predicted TEC and its variability have been used to study ionospheric in°uence on Radio Astronomy in South Africa region. Di®erential phase delays of the radio signals from Radio Astronomy sources have been simulated using TEC. Using the simulated phase delays, the azimuth and declination o®sets of the radio sources have been estimated. Results indicate that, pointing errors of the order of miliarcseconds (mas) are likely if the ionospheric phase delays are not corrected for. These delays are not uniform and vary over a broad spectrum of timescales. This implies that fast frequency (referencing) switching, closure phases and fringe ¯tting schemes for ionospheric correction in astrometry are not the best option as they do not capture the real state of the ionosphere especially if the switching time is greater than the ionospheric TEC variability. However, advantage can be taken of the GPS satellite data available at intervals of a second from the GPS receiver network in South Africa to derive parameters which could be used to correct for the ionospheric delays. Furthermore GPS data can also be used to monitor the occurrence of scintillations, (which might corrupt radio signals) especially for the proposed, Square Kilometer Array (SKA) stations closer to the equatorial belt during magnetic storms and sub-storms. A 10 minute snapshot of GPS data recorded with the Hermanus [34:420 S, 19:220 E ] dual frequency receiver on 2003-04-11 did not show the occurrence of scintillations. This time scale is however too short and cannot be representative. Longer time scales; hours, days, seasons are needed to monitor the occurrence of scintillations.
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Date Issued: 2006

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An investigation into improved ionospheric F1 layer predictions over Grahamstown, South Africa

- Jacobs, Linda

Authors: Jacobs, Linda
Date: 2005
Subjects: Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Neural networks (Computer Science)
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:5511 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008094 , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density -- South Africa -- Grahamstown , Neural networks (Computer Science)
Description: This thesis describes an analysis of the F1 layer data obtained from the Grahamstown (33.32°S, 26.500 E), South Africa ionospheric station and the use of this data in improving a Neural Network (NN) based model of the F1 layer of the ionosphere. An application for real-time ray tracing through the South African ionosphere was identified, and for this application real-time evaluation of the electron density profile is essential. Raw real-time virtual height data are provided by a Lowell Digisonde (DPS), which employs the automatic scaling software, ARTIST whose output includes the virtual-toreal height data conversion. Experience has shown that there are times when the ray tracing performance is degraded because of difficulties surrounding the real-time characterization of the F1 region by ARTIST. Therefore available DPS data from the archives of the Grahamstown station were re-scaled manually in order to establish the extent of the problem and the times and conditions under which most inaccuracies occur. The re-scaled data were used to update the F1 contribution of an existing NN based ionospheric model, the LAM model, which predicts the values of the parameters required to produce an electron density profile. This thesis describes the development of three separate NNs required to predict the ionospheric characteristics and coefficients that are required to describe the F1 layer profile. Inputs to the NNs include day number, hour and measures of solar and magnetic activity. Outputs include the value of the critical frequency of the F1 layer, foF1, the real height of reflection at the peak, hmFl, as well as information on the state of the F1 layer. All data from the Grahamstown station from 1973 to 2003 was used to train these NNs. Tests show that the predictive ability of the LAM model has been improved by incorporating the re-scaled data.
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Date Issued: 2005

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Effects of precipitating electrons in the ionosphere

- Haschick, Aubrey D

Authors: Haschick, Aubrey D
Date: 1974
Subjects: Electrons , Electron precipitation , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:5526 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012220
Description: As early as 1896, around the time of the discovery of the electron by J.J. Thompson, Birkeland was led to propose that aurorae were caused by fast moving electrons or similarly charged particles emitted by the sun and 'sucked in towards' the auroral zones by the geomagnetic field. He later supported this idea by firing electrons at a dipole field surrounding a sphere covered with a fluorescent coating. Extensive ground based observations of auroral features eventually led, in 1950, to the initial direct evidence of the fact that auroral emissions are due to energetic charged particles, consisting partly of protons, entering the earth's atmosphere (Meinel, 1951). However, it was only in 1952 and 1953 that the first measurements of what was later interpreted as bremsstrahlung X- rays from precipitating electrons were made at auroral latitudes. (Meredith et aI, 1955) During the IGY, 1957 - 1958, a number of rockets were fired through and near, visible aurorae and large fluxes of low energy electrons were detected ... Intro., p. 1.
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Date Issued: 1974

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Electron precipitation and ionospheric disturbance

- Torr, Marsha R

Authors: Torr, Marsha R
Date: 1966
Subjects: Electrons , Electron precipitation , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:5509 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007691
Description: From Introduction: The minimum in the scalar magnitude of the geographic total field, which lies off the coast of Brazil, allows the mirror points of trapped particles to dip low into the atmosphere over the South Atlantic Ocean, resulting in two regions of maximum intensity of preciptated particles in that region, one from the inner belt and one from the outer. High charged particle fluxes have been observed at low altitudes over these regions by satellites Sputnik 5 and 6 (Ginsburg et al, 1961) and Discoverer 31 (Seward and Kornblum, 1963) amongst others. The more southerly of these two regions acts as a sink for electrons from the outer radiation belt and will be referred to in what follows as the Southern Radiation Anomaly. Gladhill and van Rooyen (1963) predicted that the energy deposited in the upper atmosphere by these charged particles would be sufficient to give rise to enhanced geophysical effects such as auroral emission, X-rays and ionization and heating of the upper atmosphere in this region. Although some of these effects have been correlated with precipitated electrons, no definite relation had until now been established between ionospheric effects and precipitated particles. The aim of this thesis was to investigate such a relationship and the results were extremely successful. It will be shown conclusively in what follows, that the precipitation of electrons can account for the ionospheric disturbances defined by a disturbance criterion at all stations around L=4. Part I describes the exploration of the radiation belts and the magnetosphere with rockets and satellites. The resulting theoretical models based on the observations are discussed. A brief review is given of the work that has been done to date to derive equations for the loss and replenishment of particles in the belts. Because of the complexity of these and the number of doubtful factors involved, a simple model of injection of electrons into the outer belt is devised, giving average values of trapped and precipitated electron fluxes at any point around L=4. In Part II, this model is employed together with the disturbance criterion of Gledhill and Torr (1965) to examine the relationship between ionospheric disturbances and electron fluxes. Also the energy range of the precipitated particles is examined.
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Date Issued: 1966

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Some properties of a model F1 layer of the ionosphere

- De Jager, Gerhard

Authors: De Jager, Gerhard
Date: 1963
Subjects: Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
Language: English
Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
Identifier: vital:5515 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1011046 , Ionosphere , Ionospheric electron density
Description: The present work was initially aimed at providing an explanation for some of the phenomena that occur in the ionosphere at sunrise. The approach that was taken was to determine the changes that take place on a theoretical model of the ionosphere and then to compare these with observations. A prerequisite for this approach was a theoretical model that would show, among other things, a bifurcation of the F layer during daytime without making unjustified arbitrary assumptions. The absence of such a model, particularly as far as non-equilibrium conditions are concerned, resulted in the present attempt to provide such a model for the F1 region.
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Date Issued: 1963

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A theoretical investigation of the effects of solar eclipses on the ionosphere

- Walker, Anthony David Mortimer

Authors: Walker, Anthony David Mortimer
Date: 1962
Subjects: Solar eclipses , Ionosphere , Solar activity
Language: English
Type: Thesis , MSc , Masters
Identifier: vital:5550 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013467
Description: The behaviour of the ionosphere during a solar eclipse is of great interest because radiation from the sun is the cause of ionization in the upper atmosphere and it is useful to be able to conduct experiments where this radiation is cut off and restored in a known manner. Experimental results, especially those dealing with the F2 layer, have proved puzzling. Cusps which cannot be explained appear on the records obtained from ionosphere sounders and in the F2 region the electron density at a given height shows a maximum after the eclipse where one would expect it simply to rise to a steady value. An attempt is made in this thesis to explain some of the anomalies in terms of tilts in the ionospheric layers and minima of electron density or "valleys" between the ionospheric layers. The problem is attacked theoretically. Part I deals with the theoretical background to ionospheric physics in general and to this problem in particular. Standard methods of dealing with radio propagation in the ionosphere as well as some methods developed by the author are discussed. Part II deals directly with the effects of a solar eclipse on a theoretical ionosphere. Ionograms which would be obtained in the theoretical ionosphere are constructed. These are scaled by standard methods to show where errors may arise . It appears that tilts in the layers have only a small effect. The effect of the valley is, however, extremely important, giving rise to the apparent maximum of electron density in the F2 layer at a given height after the eclipse. This maximum does not in fact exist but arises from an error in the scaling method which ignores the possibility of a valley. Some records taken during the solar eclipse of 25 December, 1954 have been scaled. They support the conclusion reached theoretically.
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Date Issued: 1962

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