Modelling storm-time TEC changes using linear and non-linear techniques
- Authors: Uwamahoro, Jean Claude
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Magnetic storms , Astronomy -- Computer programs , Imaging systems in astronomy , Ionospheric storms , Electrons -- Measurement , Magnetosphere -- Observations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/92908 , vital:30762
- Description: Statistical models based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis and non-linear regression analysis (NLRA) were developed for the purpose of estimating the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms. The well-known least squares method (LSM) and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (MHA) were used as optimization techniques to determine the unknown coefficients of the developed analytical expressions. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, and the Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System (MIDAS) tomographic inversion algorithm were also applied to storm-time TEC modelling/reconstruction for various latitudes of the African sector and surrounding areas. This work presents some of the first statistical modeling of the mid-latitude and low-latitude ionosphere during geomagnetic storms that includes solar, geomagnetic and neutral wind drivers.Development and validation of the empirical models were based on storm-time TEC data derived from the global positioning system (GPS) measurements over ground receivers within Africa and surrounding areas. The storm criterion applied was Dst 6 −50 nT and/or Kp > 4. The performance evaluation of MIDAS compared with ANNs to reconstruct storm-time TEC over the African low- and mid-latitude regions showed that MIDAS and ANNs provide comparable results. Their respective mean absolute error (MAE) values were 4.81 and 4.18 TECU. The ANN model was, however, found to perform 24.37 % better than MIDAS at estimating storm-time TEC for low latitudes, while MIDAS is 13.44 % more accurate than ANN for the mid-latitudes. When their performances are compared with the IRI model, both MIDAS and ANN model were found to provide more accurate storm-time TEC reconstructions for the African low- and mid-latitude regions. A comparative study of the performances of EOF, NLRA, ANN, and IRI models to estimate TEC during geomagnetic storm conditions over various latitudes showed that the ANN model is about 10 %, 26 %, and 58 % more accurate than EOF, NLRA, and IRI models, respectively, while EOF was found to perform 15 %, and 44 % better than NLRA and IRI, respectively. It was further found that the NLRA model is 25 % more accurate than the IRI model. We have also investigated for the first time, the role of meridional neutral winds (from the Horizontal Wind Model) to storm-time TEC modelling in the low latitude, northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions of the African sector, based on ANN models. Statistics have shown that the inclusion of the meridional wind velocity in TEC modelling during geomagnetic storms leads to percentage improvements of about 5 % for the low latitude, 10 % and 5 % for the northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions, respectively. High-latitude storm-induced winds and the inter-hemispheric blows of the meridional winds from summer to winter hemisphere have been suggested to be associated with these improvements.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Uwamahoro, Jean Claude
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Magnetic storms , Astronomy -- Computer programs , Imaging systems in astronomy , Ionospheric storms , Electrons -- Measurement , Magnetosphere -- Observations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/92908 , vital:30762
- Description: Statistical models based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis and non-linear regression analysis (NLRA) were developed for the purpose of estimating the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) during geomagnetic storms. The well-known least squares method (LSM) and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (MHA) were used as optimization techniques to determine the unknown coefficients of the developed analytical expressions. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, and the Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System (MIDAS) tomographic inversion algorithm were also applied to storm-time TEC modelling/reconstruction for various latitudes of the African sector and surrounding areas. This work presents some of the first statistical modeling of the mid-latitude and low-latitude ionosphere during geomagnetic storms that includes solar, geomagnetic and neutral wind drivers.Development and validation of the empirical models were based on storm-time TEC data derived from the global positioning system (GPS) measurements over ground receivers within Africa and surrounding areas. The storm criterion applied was Dst 6 −50 nT and/or Kp > 4. The performance evaluation of MIDAS compared with ANNs to reconstruct storm-time TEC over the African low- and mid-latitude regions showed that MIDAS and ANNs provide comparable results. Their respective mean absolute error (MAE) values were 4.81 and 4.18 TECU. The ANN model was, however, found to perform 24.37 % better than MIDAS at estimating storm-time TEC for low latitudes, while MIDAS is 13.44 % more accurate than ANN for the mid-latitudes. When their performances are compared with the IRI model, both MIDAS and ANN model were found to provide more accurate storm-time TEC reconstructions for the African low- and mid-latitude regions. A comparative study of the performances of EOF, NLRA, ANN, and IRI models to estimate TEC during geomagnetic storm conditions over various latitudes showed that the ANN model is about 10 %, 26 %, and 58 % more accurate than EOF, NLRA, and IRI models, respectively, while EOF was found to perform 15 %, and 44 % better than NLRA and IRI, respectively. It was further found that the NLRA model is 25 % more accurate than the IRI model. We have also investigated for the first time, the role of meridional neutral winds (from the Horizontal Wind Model) to storm-time TEC modelling in the low latitude, northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions of the African sector, based on ANN models. Statistics have shown that the inclusion of the meridional wind velocity in TEC modelling during geomagnetic storms leads to percentage improvements of about 5 % for the low latitude, 10 % and 5 % for the northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitude regions, respectively. High-latitude storm-induced winds and the inter-hemispheric blows of the meridional winds from summer to winter hemisphere have been suggested to be associated with these improvements.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Behaviour of quiet time ionospheric disturbances at African equatorial and midlatitude regions
- Authors: Orford, Nicola Diane
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms , Ionospheric storms -- Africa , Ionosphere , Plasmasphere , Q-disturbances , Total electron content (TEC)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62672 , vital:28228
- Description: Extreme ionospheric and geomagnetic disturbances affect technology adversely. Prestorm enhancements, considered a potential predictor of geomagnetic storms, occur during quiet conditions prior to geomagnetic disturbances. The ionosphere experiences general disturbances during quiet geomagnetic conditions and these Q- disturbances remain unexplored over Africa. This study used TEC data to characterize the morphology of Q-disturbances over Africa, exploring variations with solar cycle, season, time of occurrence and latitude. Observations from 10 African GPS stations in the equatorial and midlatitude regions show that Q-disturbances in the equatorial region are predominantly driven by E x B variations, while multiple mechanisms affect the midlatitude region. Q- disturbances occur more frequently during nighttime than during daytime and no seasonal trend is observed. Midlatitude Q-disturbance mechanisms are explored in depth, considering substorm activity, the plasmaspheric contribution to GPS TEC and plasma transfer between conjugate points. Substorm activity is not a dominant mechanism, although Q-disturbances occurring under elevated substorm conditions tend to have longer duration and larger amplitude than general Q-disturbances. Many observed Q-disturbances become non-significant once the plasmaspheric contribution to the TEC measurements is removed, indicating that these disturbances occur within the plasmasphere, and not the ionosphere. Transfer of plasma between conjugate points does not seem to be a mechanism driving Q-disturbances, as the corresponding nighttime behaviour expected between depletions in the summer hemisphere and enhancements in the winter hemisphere is not observed. Pre-storm enhancements occur infrequently, rendering them a poor predictor of geomagnetic disturbances. Pre-storm enhancement morphology does not differ significantly from general quiet time enhancement morphology, suggesting pre-storms are not a special case of Q-disturbances.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Orford, Nicola Diane
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms , Ionospheric storms -- Africa , Ionosphere , Plasmasphere , Q-disturbances , Total electron content (TEC)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62672 , vital:28228
- Description: Extreme ionospheric and geomagnetic disturbances affect technology adversely. Prestorm enhancements, considered a potential predictor of geomagnetic storms, occur during quiet conditions prior to geomagnetic disturbances. The ionosphere experiences general disturbances during quiet geomagnetic conditions and these Q- disturbances remain unexplored over Africa. This study used TEC data to characterize the morphology of Q-disturbances over Africa, exploring variations with solar cycle, season, time of occurrence and latitude. Observations from 10 African GPS stations in the equatorial and midlatitude regions show that Q-disturbances in the equatorial region are predominantly driven by E x B variations, while multiple mechanisms affect the midlatitude region. Q- disturbances occur more frequently during nighttime than during daytime and no seasonal trend is observed. Midlatitude Q-disturbance mechanisms are explored in depth, considering substorm activity, the plasmaspheric contribution to GPS TEC and plasma transfer between conjugate points. Substorm activity is not a dominant mechanism, although Q-disturbances occurring under elevated substorm conditions tend to have longer duration and larger amplitude than general Q-disturbances. Many observed Q-disturbances become non-significant once the plasmaspheric contribution to the TEC measurements is removed, indicating that these disturbances occur within the plasmasphere, and not the ionosphere. Transfer of plasma between conjugate points does not seem to be a mechanism driving Q-disturbances, as the corresponding nighttime behaviour expected between depletions in the summer hemisphere and enhancements in the winter hemisphere is not observed. Pre-storm enhancements occur infrequently, rendering them a poor predictor of geomagnetic disturbances. Pre-storm enhancement morphology does not differ significantly from general quiet time enhancement morphology, suggesting pre-storms are not a special case of Q-disturbances.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Long-term analysis of ionospheric response during geomagnetic storms in mid, low and equatorial latitudes
- Matamba, Tshimangadzo Merline
- Authors: Matamba, Tshimangadzo Merline
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms , Coronal mass ejections , Corotating interaction regions , Solar flares , Global Positioning System , Ionospheric critical frequencies , Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/63991 , vital:28517
- Description: Understanding changes in the ionosphere is important for High Frequency (HF) communications and navigation systems. Ionospheric storms are the disturbances in the Earth’s upper atmosphere due to solar activities such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), Corotating interaction Regions (CIRs) and solar flares. This thesis reports for the first time on an investigation of ionospheric response to great geomagnetic storms (Disturbance storm time, Dst ≤ −350 nT) that occurred during solar cycle 23. The storm periods analysed were 29 March - 02 April 2001, 27 - 31 October 2003, 18 - 23 November 2003 and 06 - 11 November 2004. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Total Electron Content (TEC) and ionosonde critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) data over northern hemisphere (European sector) and southern hemisphere (African sector) mid-latitudes were used to study the ionospheric responses within 15E° - 40°E longitude and ±31°- ±46° geomagnetic latitude. Mid-latitude regions within the same longitude sector in both hemispheres were selected in order to assess the contribution of the low latitude changes especially the expansion of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) also known as the dayside ionospheric super-fountain effect during these storms. In all storm periods, both negative and positive ionospheric responses were observed in both hemispheres. Negative ionospheric responses were mainly due to changes in neutral composition, while the expansion of the EIA led to pronounced positive ionospheric storm effect at mid-latitudes for some storm periods. In other cases (e.g 29 October 2003), Prompt Penetration Electric Fields (PPEF), EIA expansion and large scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) were found to be present during the positive storm effect at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. An increase in TEC on the 28 October 2003 was because of the large solar flare with previously determined intensity of X45± 5. A further report on statistical analysis of ionospheric storm effects due to Corotating Interaction Region (CIR)- and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven storms was performed. The storm periods analyzed occurred during the period 2001 - 2015 which covers part of solar cycles 23 and 24. Dst≤ -30 nT and Kp≥ 3 indices were used to identify the storm periods considered. Ionospheric TEC derived from IGS stations that lie within 30°E - 40°E geographic longitude in mid, low and equatorial latitude over the African sector were used. The statistical analysis of ionospheric storm effects were compared over mid, low and equatorial latitudes in the African sector for the first time. Positive ionospheric storm effects were more prevalent during CME-driven and CIR-driven over all stations considered in this study. Negative ionospheric storm effects occurred only during CME-driven storms over mid-latitude stations and were more prevalent in summer. The other interesting finding is that for the stations considered over mid-, low, and equatorial latitudes, negative-positive ionospheric responses were only observed over low and equatorial latitudes. A significant number of cases where the electron density changes remained within the background variability during storm conditions were observed over the low latitude stations compared to other latitude regions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Matamba, Tshimangadzo Merline
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms , Coronal mass ejections , Corotating interaction regions , Solar flares , Global Positioning System , Ionospheric critical frequencies , Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/63991 , vital:28517
- Description: Understanding changes in the ionosphere is important for High Frequency (HF) communications and navigation systems. Ionospheric storms are the disturbances in the Earth’s upper atmosphere due to solar activities such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), Corotating interaction Regions (CIRs) and solar flares. This thesis reports for the first time on an investigation of ionospheric response to great geomagnetic storms (Disturbance storm time, Dst ≤ −350 nT) that occurred during solar cycle 23. The storm periods analysed were 29 March - 02 April 2001, 27 - 31 October 2003, 18 - 23 November 2003 and 06 - 11 November 2004. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Total Electron Content (TEC) and ionosonde critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) data over northern hemisphere (European sector) and southern hemisphere (African sector) mid-latitudes were used to study the ionospheric responses within 15E° - 40°E longitude and ±31°- ±46° geomagnetic latitude. Mid-latitude regions within the same longitude sector in both hemispheres were selected in order to assess the contribution of the low latitude changes especially the expansion of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) also known as the dayside ionospheric super-fountain effect during these storms. In all storm periods, both negative and positive ionospheric responses were observed in both hemispheres. Negative ionospheric responses were mainly due to changes in neutral composition, while the expansion of the EIA led to pronounced positive ionospheric storm effect at mid-latitudes for some storm periods. In other cases (e.g 29 October 2003), Prompt Penetration Electric Fields (PPEF), EIA expansion and large scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) were found to be present during the positive storm effect at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. An increase in TEC on the 28 October 2003 was because of the large solar flare with previously determined intensity of X45± 5. A further report on statistical analysis of ionospheric storm effects due to Corotating Interaction Region (CIR)- and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven storms was performed. The storm periods analyzed occurred during the period 2001 - 2015 which covers part of solar cycles 23 and 24. Dst≤ -30 nT and Kp≥ 3 indices were used to identify the storm periods considered. Ionospheric TEC derived from IGS stations that lie within 30°E - 40°E geographic longitude in mid, low and equatorial latitude over the African sector were used. The statistical analysis of ionospheric storm effects were compared over mid, low and equatorial latitudes in the African sector for the first time. Positive ionospheric storm effects were more prevalent during CME-driven and CIR-driven over all stations considered in this study. Negative ionospheric storm effects occurred only during CME-driven storms over mid-latitude stations and were more prevalent in summer. The other interesting finding is that for the stations considered over mid-, low, and equatorial latitudes, negative-positive ionospheric responses were only observed over low and equatorial latitudes. A significant number of cases where the electron density changes remained within the background variability during storm conditions were observed over the low latitude stations compared to other latitude regions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Multi-instrument observations of ionospheric irregularities over South Africa
- Authors: Amabayo, Emirant Bertillas
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Ionosphere -- Research , Sudden ionospheric disturbances , Ionospheric storms , Solar activity , Sunspots
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5476 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005261 , Ionosphere -- Research , Sudden ionospheric disturbances , Ionospheric storms , Solar activity , Sunspots
- Description: The occurrence of mid-latitude spread F (SF) over South Africa has not been extensively studied since the installation of the DPS-4 digisondes at Madimbo (30.88◦E, 22.38◦S), Grahamstown (33.32◦S, 26.50◦E) and Louisvale (28.51◦S, 21.24◦E). This study is intended to quantify the probability of the occurrence of F region disturbances associated with ionospheric spread F (SF) and L-band scintillation over South Africa. This study used available ionosonde data for 8 years (2000-2008) from the three South African stations. The SF events were identified manually on ionograms and grouped for further statistical analysis into frequency SF (FSF), range SF (RSF) and mixed SF (MSF). The results show that the diurnal pattern of SF occurrence peaks strongly between 23:00 and 00:00 UT. This pattern is true for all seasons and types of SF at Madimbo and Grahamstown during 2001 and 2005, except for RSF which had peaks during autumn and spring during 2001 at Madimbo. The probability of both MSF and FSF tends to increase with decreasing sunspot number (SSN), with a peak in 2005 (a moderate solar activity period). The seasonal peaks of MSF and FSF are more frequent during winter months at both Madimbo and Grahamstown. In this study SF was evident in ∼ 0.03% and ∼ 0.06% of the available ionograms at Madimbo and Grahamstown respectively during the eight year period. The presence of ionospheric irregularities associated with SF and scintillation was investigated using data from selected Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver stations distributed across South Africa. The results, based on GPS total electron content (TEC) and ionosonde measurements, show that SF over this region can most likely be attributed to travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), caused by gravity waves (GWs) and neutral wind composition changes. The GWs were mostly associated with geomagnetic storms and sub-storms that occurred during periods of high and moderate solar activity (2001-2005). SF occurrence during the low solar activity period (2006-2008)can probably be attributed to neutral wind composition changes.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Amabayo, Emirant Bertillas
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Ionosphere -- Research , Sudden ionospheric disturbances , Ionospheric storms , Solar activity , Sunspots
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5476 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005261 , Ionosphere -- Research , Sudden ionospheric disturbances , Ionospheric storms , Solar activity , Sunspots
- Description: The occurrence of mid-latitude spread F (SF) over South Africa has not been extensively studied since the installation of the DPS-4 digisondes at Madimbo (30.88◦E, 22.38◦S), Grahamstown (33.32◦S, 26.50◦E) and Louisvale (28.51◦S, 21.24◦E). This study is intended to quantify the probability of the occurrence of F region disturbances associated with ionospheric spread F (SF) and L-band scintillation over South Africa. This study used available ionosonde data for 8 years (2000-2008) from the three South African stations. The SF events were identified manually on ionograms and grouped for further statistical analysis into frequency SF (FSF), range SF (RSF) and mixed SF (MSF). The results show that the diurnal pattern of SF occurrence peaks strongly between 23:00 and 00:00 UT. This pattern is true for all seasons and types of SF at Madimbo and Grahamstown during 2001 and 2005, except for RSF which had peaks during autumn and spring during 2001 at Madimbo. The probability of both MSF and FSF tends to increase with decreasing sunspot number (SSN), with a peak in 2005 (a moderate solar activity period). The seasonal peaks of MSF and FSF are more frequent during winter months at both Madimbo and Grahamstown. In this study SF was evident in ∼ 0.03% and ∼ 0.06% of the available ionograms at Madimbo and Grahamstown respectively during the eight year period. The presence of ionospheric irregularities associated with SF and scintillation was investigated using data from selected Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver stations distributed across South Africa. The results, based on GPS total electron content (TEC) and ionosonde measurements, show that SF over this region can most likely be attributed to travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs), caused by gravity waves (GWs) and neutral wind composition changes. The GWs were mostly associated with geomagnetic storms and sub-storms that occurred during periods of high and moderate solar activity (2001-2005). SF occurrence during the low solar activity period (2006-2008)can probably be attributed to neutral wind composition changes.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
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