Learnership program's effectiveness at an FET college
- Lekhelebana, Letlatsa George
- Authors: Lekhelebana, Letlatsa George
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Vocational education , Skilled labor -- South Africa , Unemployment -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Universities and colleges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:8870 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020314
- Description: High levels of unemployment and skills shortages in key parts of the South African economy are well documented. The failure of the South African economy to absorb new entrants to the job market is also well documented. The paradox of an economy that was growing for over a decade during the late nineties and early 2000s creating a lot of vacancies and yet at the same time seeing ever growing levels of unemployment numbers also makes for interesting reading. Learnership programs are intended to address this situation by reducing the problem of skills shortages and leading in the human capital development that is aligned to industry needs. Thus is the purpose of this study to determine whether the beneficiaries of the learnership programs, the graduates, find benefit from having completed these learnership programs. It is to evaluate whether they find the program to have been effective in either equipping them sufficiently to improve prospects of finding permanent employment or successfully starting their own businesses. An extensive literature study of the history of the FET and its development, the concept of learnership and legislation and statutes applicable to the sector in South Africa was undertaken so that the skills development initiatives in the country are contextualised. The empirical part of the study involved a self-constructed questionnaire designed to illicit perspectives of the FET training and learnership within the FET graduate population that have completed their studies at an FET institution within Nelson Mandela Bay. The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find the training to be effective and confirm the literature findings that learnerships can improve the issue of skills shortage in industry. The study makes recommendations that encompass work-based strategies and training based strategies to further improve the program. The recommendations are targeted at the FET college, the work-place training providers and the MERSETA and are meant solely to assist the organisations in overcoming the identified challenges emanating from learnership implementation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Lekhelebana, Letlatsa George
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Vocational education , Skilled labor -- South Africa , Unemployment -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Universities and colleges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:8870 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020314
- Description: High levels of unemployment and skills shortages in key parts of the South African economy are well documented. The failure of the South African economy to absorb new entrants to the job market is also well documented. The paradox of an economy that was growing for over a decade during the late nineties and early 2000s creating a lot of vacancies and yet at the same time seeing ever growing levels of unemployment numbers also makes for interesting reading. Learnership programs are intended to address this situation by reducing the problem of skills shortages and leading in the human capital development that is aligned to industry needs. Thus is the purpose of this study to determine whether the beneficiaries of the learnership programs, the graduates, find benefit from having completed these learnership programs. It is to evaluate whether they find the program to have been effective in either equipping them sufficiently to improve prospects of finding permanent employment or successfully starting their own businesses. An extensive literature study of the history of the FET and its development, the concept of learnership and legislation and statutes applicable to the sector in South Africa was undertaken so that the skills development initiatives in the country are contextualised. The empirical part of the study involved a self-constructed questionnaire designed to illicit perspectives of the FET training and learnership within the FET graduate population that have completed their studies at an FET institution within Nelson Mandela Bay. The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find the training to be effective and confirm the literature findings that learnerships can improve the issue of skills shortage in industry. The study makes recommendations that encompass work-based strategies and training based strategies to further improve the program. The recommendations are targeted at the FET college, the work-place training providers and the MERSETA and are meant solely to assist the organisations in overcoming the identified challenges emanating from learnership implementation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
National debt and sovereign credit ratings
- Authors: Orsmond, Daniel
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Credit ratings -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic history , Macroeconomics , Moody's Investors Service , Standard and Poor's Ratings Services , Fitch Ratings (Firm)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115160 , vital:34083
- Description: In recent years South Africa’s foreign and local denominated debt has been downgraded by the three major global credit agencies, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. The foreign debt has been downgraded to speculative grade or ‘junk’ status by all three agencies. Local debt has been downgraded to ‘junk’ by S& P and Fitch, but Moody’s currently maintains local debt at the lowest level of investment grade. Many economists believe that South Africa’s rapidly rising debt levels are the major contributor to the decisions to downgrade South Africa’s debt. Yet many countries with higher levels of debt continue to be rated investment grade. Clearly, factors other than the actual level of debt are important in determining the credit rating agencies’ rating decisions. The literature suggests several variables are important in determining a country’s sovereign credit rating. These variables include not just the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, but also a country’s real growth rate, inflation, gross domestic product per capita, external balance to gross domestic product, default history and the level of economic development. In examining the proposition that it is not a country’s debt level per se that matters, but rather the dynamics surrounding that debt, this research also includes three additional variables that are not usually mentioned in the literature. These, based on van der Merwe (1993), are the real GDP growth rate less the real interest rate, the ratio of the fiscal balance to GDP, and the ratio of government interest payments to government expenditure. The purpose of this addition is to examine whether rather than a country’s debt level (debt to GDP variable), it is the sustainability of a country’s ability to service debt, as indicated by the three additional ‘debt dynamic’ variables, that is most important when determining sovereign credit ratings. Panel data analysis for a sample of 12 countries over the period 1996Q1 to 2017Q4 indicates that of the broad macroeconomic variables mentioned in the literature, government debt to GDP, the real growth rate, inflation (cpi), and default history are all statistically significant, with the coefficients having the correct signs in all specification of the model, with the exception of the real growth rate in Models 2 and 3. With regards to the debt dynamic variables, the real growth rate less the real interest rate, as well as the interest payments to government expenditure variables are found to be significant determinants of sovereign credit ratings. Thus, the findings of the research suggest that the level of debt alone is an inadequate determinant of sovereign credit ratings. The dynamics of debt along with other macroeconomic variables are also important determinants of a country’s credit rating. Concerning policy recommendations, it is evident that debt sustainability is important for sovereign credit ratings. Evidence of the direct importance of economic growth in determining credit ratings is mixed, but growth is a key driver of debt dynamics variables and therefore of ratings. This suggests that policy should focus on stimulating growth to reduce the gap between real growth and real interest rates as well as increasing the denominator of the debt to GDP ratio and increase the size of the tax base, which would improve government’s ability to service the interest payments on its debt.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Orsmond, Daniel
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Credit ratings -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic history , Macroeconomics , Moody's Investors Service , Standard and Poor's Ratings Services , Fitch Ratings (Firm)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115160 , vital:34083
- Description: In recent years South Africa’s foreign and local denominated debt has been downgraded by the three major global credit agencies, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. The foreign debt has been downgraded to speculative grade or ‘junk’ status by all three agencies. Local debt has been downgraded to ‘junk’ by S& P and Fitch, but Moody’s currently maintains local debt at the lowest level of investment grade. Many economists believe that South Africa’s rapidly rising debt levels are the major contributor to the decisions to downgrade South Africa’s debt. Yet many countries with higher levels of debt continue to be rated investment grade. Clearly, factors other than the actual level of debt are important in determining the credit rating agencies’ rating decisions. The literature suggests several variables are important in determining a country’s sovereign credit rating. These variables include not just the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, but also a country’s real growth rate, inflation, gross domestic product per capita, external balance to gross domestic product, default history and the level of economic development. In examining the proposition that it is not a country’s debt level per se that matters, but rather the dynamics surrounding that debt, this research also includes three additional variables that are not usually mentioned in the literature. These, based on van der Merwe (1993), are the real GDP growth rate less the real interest rate, the ratio of the fiscal balance to GDP, and the ratio of government interest payments to government expenditure. The purpose of this addition is to examine whether rather than a country’s debt level (debt to GDP variable), it is the sustainability of a country’s ability to service debt, as indicated by the three additional ‘debt dynamic’ variables, that is most important when determining sovereign credit ratings. Panel data analysis for a sample of 12 countries over the period 1996Q1 to 2017Q4 indicates that of the broad macroeconomic variables mentioned in the literature, government debt to GDP, the real growth rate, inflation (cpi), and default history are all statistically significant, with the coefficients having the correct signs in all specification of the model, with the exception of the real growth rate in Models 2 and 3. With regards to the debt dynamic variables, the real growth rate less the real interest rate, as well as the interest payments to government expenditure variables are found to be significant determinants of sovereign credit ratings. Thus, the findings of the research suggest that the level of debt alone is an inadequate determinant of sovereign credit ratings. The dynamics of debt along with other macroeconomic variables are also important determinants of a country’s credit rating. Concerning policy recommendations, it is evident that debt sustainability is important for sovereign credit ratings. Evidence of the direct importance of economic growth in determining credit ratings is mixed, but growth is a key driver of debt dynamics variables and therefore of ratings. This suggests that policy should focus on stimulating growth to reduce the gap between real growth and real interest rates as well as increasing the denominator of the debt to GDP ratio and increase the size of the tax base, which would improve government’s ability to service the interest payments on its debt.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Official development assistance (ODA): coordination, management and its impact in the National Department of Science and Technology (DST)
- Authors: Tena, Mokgadi
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic sssistance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9161 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020023
- Description: South Africa (SA) has been a recipient of Official Development Assistance (ODA) prior to the democratic elections in 1994. Even though there has been progress in terms of aligning the ODA to SA government priorities and the good aid management principles, it has been a challenge to trace the amount of the ODA received across government departments and its impact thereon. For various reasons, reporting on the impact of the ODA has been very challenging for most of the departments. Some departments do not use government systems such as the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) account, through which it is required by the Policy Framework and Procedural Guidelines for the Management of ODA that all funds are transferred and channelled. As stipulated in the Policy Framework and Procedural Guidelines for the Management of ODA, the ODA is targeted towards innovation, piloting and value-add, as it only constitutes 1.5 percent of the overall budget of the country. As a result, most government departments utilise ODA as a gap-filler, to pay for unplanned activities that would have otherwise not been budgeted for in the government’s fiscal budget. This leads to departments not reporting as they fear that the ODA will then be withdrawn from them (Policy Guidelines2003). The Department of Science and Technology is one of the South African government departments that received high ODA for the period 2005-2011. The department not only spans across all sectors in terms of research and capacity development, but it has also established strategic international partnerships to collaborate in the research arena. In light of the above, it is interesting to explore how coordination is carried out and what impact if any; 2 the ODA has on the proposed Department of Science and Technology projects. This study explores the Department of Science and Technology, which is a recipient and implementer of ODA, and analyses how they co-ordinate, utilise and report on the ODA. The project that will be analysed is a Sector Budget Support Programme that focuses on poverty alleviation within the capacity development sector.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Tena, Mokgadi
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic sssistance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9161 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020023
- Description: South Africa (SA) has been a recipient of Official Development Assistance (ODA) prior to the democratic elections in 1994. Even though there has been progress in terms of aligning the ODA to SA government priorities and the good aid management principles, it has been a challenge to trace the amount of the ODA received across government departments and its impact thereon. For various reasons, reporting on the impact of the ODA has been very challenging for most of the departments. Some departments do not use government systems such as the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) account, through which it is required by the Policy Framework and Procedural Guidelines for the Management of ODA that all funds are transferred and channelled. As stipulated in the Policy Framework and Procedural Guidelines for the Management of ODA, the ODA is targeted towards innovation, piloting and value-add, as it only constitutes 1.5 percent of the overall budget of the country. As a result, most government departments utilise ODA as a gap-filler, to pay for unplanned activities that would have otherwise not been budgeted for in the government’s fiscal budget. This leads to departments not reporting as they fear that the ODA will then be withdrawn from them (Policy Guidelines2003). The Department of Science and Technology is one of the South African government departments that received high ODA for the period 2005-2011. The department not only spans across all sectors in terms of research and capacity development, but it has also established strategic international partnerships to collaborate in the research arena. In light of the above, it is interesting to explore how coordination is carried out and what impact if any; 2 the ODA has on the proposed Department of Science and Technology projects. This study explores the Department of Science and Technology, which is a recipient and implementer of ODA, and analyses how they co-ordinate, utilise and report on the ODA. The project that will be analysed is a Sector Budget Support Programme that focuses on poverty alleviation within the capacity development sector.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
Possible futures for the Republic of South Africa towards 2055
- Adendorff, Christian Michael
- Authors: Adendorff, Christian Michael
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/7816 , vital:24294
- Description: The purpose of this thesis was to develop four scenarios for South Africa over the next forty years: Mandela's Dream in which positive elements come into function for South Africa's economy and governance; the Historical African Syndrome, in which the key driving forces unfold in an uneven pattern, or have a differentiated impact on South Africa's economy; the Good, the Bad and the Ugly in which less good governance prevails, but where a fortunate economy and firm national management allow South Africa to become competitive and benefit from satisfactory economic growth; and the Pyramid Syndrome Scenario in which negative regional drivers of change corrode positive policies and initiatives in a manner which compounds the pre-existing threats to South Africa's growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Adendorff, Christian Michael
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/7816 , vital:24294
- Description: The purpose of this thesis was to develop four scenarios for South Africa over the next forty years: Mandela's Dream in which positive elements come into function for South Africa's economy and governance; the Historical African Syndrome, in which the key driving forces unfold in an uneven pattern, or have a differentiated impact on South Africa's economy; the Good, the Bad and the Ugly in which less good governance prevails, but where a fortunate economy and firm national management allow South Africa to become competitive and benefit from satisfactory economic growth; and the Pyramid Syndrome Scenario in which negative regional drivers of change corrode positive policies and initiatives in a manner which compounds the pre-existing threats to South Africa's growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
Social movements and economic development in post apartheid South Africa: lessons from Latin America
- Authors: Makoni, Tinotenda Charity
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- , Social movements -- South Africa , Social movements -- Latin America , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76420 , vital:30561
- Description: The aim of this research is to bring the literature on political agency and economics together in an analysis of whether social movements can play an important role in economic development in post-apartheid South Africa. The entrenched discourse of sluggish growth and high inequality in post-apartheid South Africa can largely be attributed to the political decision to implement a neoliberal economic development orthodoxy. On the one hand, there is an urgent need to shift the economic development model to an alternate developmentalist model. However, no clearly articulated alternative developmental model has emerged. As a result, economically, South Africa is seemingly stuck. On the other hand, the selection of an economic development model and change in macroeconomic policies requires a political shift. Politically, formal politics has assumed the form of neoliberal democracy, characterised by a largely centralised state and the usurpation of the state and institutions by a national bourgeoisie. Social movements have emerged in response to the failure of neoliberalism to fulfil the promises of early post independent periods. They have been largely successful at highlighting the injustices and the inequalities in the country. However their ability to influence structural economic development has come into question. Firstly, social movements and their “politically destabilising distributive demands” have faced repression from the state as the state and institutions are aligned behind the interests of capital under a neoliberal democracy. Secondly, social movements in South Africa have been largely ideologically under-developed. They have been largely fragmented and tended to contest specific single issues rather than aiming to shift the deeper underlying systemic drivers behind the symptomatic immediate discomforts. The economic dimensions of such a shift are particularly unclear. This fragmentation and apparent lack of economic pragmatism make management or suppression of disruptive movements by the state relatively easy. The research uses a contrast between the Latin American social movements against a South African background in order to see what lessons South Africa can draw from social movements in Latin America. The Latin American case is cautiously more positive and provides comparably more sanguine lessons. In this way, this research seeks to construct a more comprehensive framework for the further study of social movements in South Africa and their potential impact on economic development in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Social movements and economic development in post apartheid South Africa: lessons from Latin America
- Authors: Makoni, Tinotenda Charity
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- , Social movements -- South Africa , Social movements -- Latin America , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76420 , vital:30561
- Description: The aim of this research is to bring the literature on political agency and economics together in an analysis of whether social movements can play an important role in economic development in post-apartheid South Africa. The entrenched discourse of sluggish growth and high inequality in post-apartheid South Africa can largely be attributed to the political decision to implement a neoliberal economic development orthodoxy. On the one hand, there is an urgent need to shift the economic development model to an alternate developmentalist model. However, no clearly articulated alternative developmental model has emerged. As a result, economically, South Africa is seemingly stuck. On the other hand, the selection of an economic development model and change in macroeconomic policies requires a political shift. Politically, formal politics has assumed the form of neoliberal democracy, characterised by a largely centralised state and the usurpation of the state and institutions by a national bourgeoisie. Social movements have emerged in response to the failure of neoliberalism to fulfil the promises of early post independent periods. They have been largely successful at highlighting the injustices and the inequalities in the country. However their ability to influence structural economic development has come into question. Firstly, social movements and their “politically destabilising distributive demands” have faced repression from the state as the state and institutions are aligned behind the interests of capital under a neoliberal democracy. Secondly, social movements in South Africa have been largely ideologically under-developed. They have been largely fragmented and tended to contest specific single issues rather than aiming to shift the deeper underlying systemic drivers behind the symptomatic immediate discomforts. The economic dimensions of such a shift are particularly unclear. This fragmentation and apparent lack of economic pragmatism make management or suppression of disruptive movements by the state relatively easy. The research uses a contrast between the Latin American social movements against a South African background in order to see what lessons South Africa can draw from social movements in Latin America. The Latin American case is cautiously more positive and provides comparably more sanguine lessons. In this way, this research seeks to construct a more comprehensive framework for the further study of social movements in South Africa and their potential impact on economic development in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Some aspects of housing economics with reference to the coloured population of South Africa
- Authors: Farabi, Sadraddin
- Date: 1981 , 2013-04-02
- Subjects: Housing -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Regional economics -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Colored people (South Africa) -- Housing , Colored people (South Africa) -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1050 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006342 , Housing -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Regional economics -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Colored people (South Africa) -- Housing , Colored people (South Africa) -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1981
- Authors: Farabi, Sadraddin
- Date: 1981 , 2013-04-02
- Subjects: Housing -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Regional economics -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Colored people (South Africa) -- Housing , Colored people (South Africa) -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1050 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006342 , Housing -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Regional economics -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Colored people (South Africa) -- Housing , Colored people (South Africa) -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1981
The development of a strategic management model for industrial development zones to attract Greenfield Foreign Direct Investments
- Authors: Rich, Guy Martin
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Investments, foreign -- South Africa , Industrialization -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:10937 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/220 , Investments, foreign -- South Africa , Industrialization -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Description: In order to become globally competitive, South Africa has embarked on an industrial development zone (IDZ) programme to boost investment, increase the socio-economic climate, attract world-class manufacturers and generate local and foreign direct investment (FDI) while creating employment, encouraging skills and technology transfer, and increasing foreign exchange earnings. Twelve strategic areas within South Africa have been identified and are in the process of, or have been, declared IDZs. East London and Coega are the first two IDZs to come online in South Africa and have generated much publicity in the past number of years. One of the aims of the IDZs, as world-class production areas, is to generate FDI. Drivers of international FDI include globalisation, political, economic and legal environments and competitive advantage. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2002: 25), FDI accounts for 16 percent of worldwide gross fixed capital formation – and a growing proportion of this is going to developing nations. According to the World Economic Processing Zones Association (WEPZA), IDZs have been the star performer in attracting investment and technology to developing countries during the past 50 years (2002: www.wepza.org). If the Eastern Cape IDZ programme is to be a success, the development corporations that have been established as the management arms of the IDZs will need to facilitate strategic economic advantage, look towards strategic investments that are sustainable, take advantage of and grow existing industrial capacity and create economic and social benefits for the region. There are a number of dynamics and reasons behind global FDI decisions. In order to be successful at attracting FDI the development corporations need to understand these dynamics and reasons in order to achieve a strategic fit between potential investor and the IDZ. This can be done by adopting a strategic management model for greenfield FDI from international investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Rich, Guy Martin
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Investments, foreign -- South Africa , Industrialization -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:10937 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/220 , Investments, foreign -- South Africa , Industrialization -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Description: In order to become globally competitive, South Africa has embarked on an industrial development zone (IDZ) programme to boost investment, increase the socio-economic climate, attract world-class manufacturers and generate local and foreign direct investment (FDI) while creating employment, encouraging skills and technology transfer, and increasing foreign exchange earnings. Twelve strategic areas within South Africa have been identified and are in the process of, or have been, declared IDZs. East London and Coega are the first two IDZs to come online in South Africa and have generated much publicity in the past number of years. One of the aims of the IDZs, as world-class production areas, is to generate FDI. Drivers of international FDI include globalisation, political, economic and legal environments and competitive advantage. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2002: 25), FDI accounts for 16 percent of worldwide gross fixed capital formation – and a growing proportion of this is going to developing nations. According to the World Economic Processing Zones Association (WEPZA), IDZs have been the star performer in attracting investment and technology to developing countries during the past 50 years (2002: www.wepza.org). If the Eastern Cape IDZ programme is to be a success, the development corporations that have been established as the management arms of the IDZs will need to facilitate strategic economic advantage, look towards strategic investments that are sustainable, take advantage of and grow existing industrial capacity and create economic and social benefits for the region. There are a number of dynamics and reasons behind global FDI decisions. In order to be successful at attracting FDI the development corporations need to understand these dynamics and reasons in order to achieve a strategic fit between potential investor and the IDZ. This can be done by adopting a strategic management model for greenfield FDI from international investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
The effect of bond market on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Dingela, Siyasanga
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Bond market -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/7218 , vital:21306
- Description: This paper investigates the effect of bond market on economic growth in South Africa. Quarterly data for South Africa for the period 2003-2014 was used to develop a general- to- specific Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical results confirm that there is a positive relationship between Bond market and economic growth in South Africa. A co-integrated relationship between economic growth, stock market and banking sector was noticed in both the long-run and short-runs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Dingela, Siyasanga
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Bond market -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/7218 , vital:21306
- Description: This paper investigates the effect of bond market on economic growth in South Africa. Quarterly data for South Africa for the period 2003-2014 was used to develop a general- to- specific Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical results confirm that there is a positive relationship between Bond market and economic growth in South Africa. A co-integrated relationship between economic growth, stock market and banking sector was noticed in both the long-run and short-runs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
The effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Mazenda, Adrino
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: International Monetary Fund , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , International finance , Finance -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11462 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007027 , International Monetary Fund , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , International finance , Finance -- Developing countries
- Description: Foreign direct investment amongst other mechanisms provides capital inflow meant to stimulate economic growth. Apart from promoting economic growth, FDI can also lead to increase in employment, technology, technical knowhow and managerial skills. South Africa has implemented various policy initiatives in attempts to attract foreign investment. This study investigates on the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, with particular reference to the South African economy. The period of study is from 1980 to 2010. The study begins by reviewing literature on economic growth and foreign direct investment. South Africa’s macroeconomic background is examined to determine the trends in FDI inflows and economic growth. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of FDI on economic growth is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. Variables specified in the methodology include real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (INVE), real exchange rate (REXCH) and foreign marketable debt (DEBT). The long run results showed that FDI, REXCH and DEBT have a negative impact on growth. INVE has a positive impact on growth. Short run results indicated that there is no strong pressure on RGDP to restore long-run equilibrium whenever there is a disturbance. The short run lag of FDI was found to exert a positive impact on growth. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis complemented the long and short-run findings. Shocks on REXCH, and DEBT generated a negative response on RGDP. The shocks were not significantly different from zero and were transitory. Results from the variance decomposition analysis revealed that the fundamentals explain some, but not all, of the variations of RGDP. For the fifth year forecast error variance RGDP explains the largest component of the variation followed by INVE, REXCH, FDI and DEBT. After a period of ten years, the influence of RGDP and INVE declines, whereas REXCH, FDI and DEBT increase. Conclusions and policy recommendations were made using these results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mazenda, Adrino
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: International Monetary Fund , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , International finance , Finance -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11462 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007027 , International Monetary Fund , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , International finance , Finance -- Developing countries
- Description: Foreign direct investment amongst other mechanisms provides capital inflow meant to stimulate economic growth. Apart from promoting economic growth, FDI can also lead to increase in employment, technology, technical knowhow and managerial skills. South Africa has implemented various policy initiatives in attempts to attract foreign investment. This study investigates on the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, with particular reference to the South African economy. The period of study is from 1980 to 2010. The study begins by reviewing literature on economic growth and foreign direct investment. South Africa’s macroeconomic background is examined to determine the trends in FDI inflows and economic growth. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of FDI on economic growth is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. Variables specified in the methodology include real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (INVE), real exchange rate (REXCH) and foreign marketable debt (DEBT). The long run results showed that FDI, REXCH and DEBT have a negative impact on growth. INVE has a positive impact on growth. Short run results indicated that there is no strong pressure on RGDP to restore long-run equilibrium whenever there is a disturbance. The short run lag of FDI was found to exert a positive impact on growth. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis complemented the long and short-run findings. Shocks on REXCH, and DEBT generated a negative response on RGDP. The shocks were not significantly different from zero and were transitory. Results from the variance decomposition analysis revealed that the fundamentals explain some, but not all, of the variations of RGDP. For the fifth year forecast error variance RGDP explains the largest component of the variation followed by INVE, REXCH, FDI and DEBT. After a period of ten years, the influence of RGDP and INVE declines, whereas REXCH, FDI and DEBT increase. Conclusions and policy recommendations were made using these results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The effect of real exchange rate volatility on export performance: evidence from South Africa (2000-2011)
- Authors: Chamunorwa, Wilson
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11499 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018600 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The effect of real exchange rate volatility on export performance: evidence from South Africa (2000-2011) This study sought to investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance in South Africa. The main objective of the study was to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on export performance in South Africa. This relationship was examined using GARCH methods. Exports were regressed against real effective exchange rate, trade openness and capacity utilisation. The research aimed to establish whether exchange rate volatility impacts negatively on export performance in the manner suggested by the econometric model. The result obtained showed that exchange rate volatility had a significantly negative effect on South African exports in the period 2000-2011.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Chamunorwa, Wilson
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11499 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018600 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The effect of real exchange rate volatility on export performance: evidence from South Africa (2000-2011) This study sought to investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance in South Africa. The main objective of the study was to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on export performance in South Africa. This relationship was examined using GARCH methods. Exports were regressed against real effective exchange rate, trade openness and capacity utilisation. The research aimed to establish whether exchange rate volatility impacts negatively on export performance in the manner suggested by the econometric model. The result obtained showed that exchange rate volatility had a significantly negative effect on South African exports in the period 2000-2011.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The Effects of exchange rates on bilateral trade balances of SACU members states with their trading partners
- Authors: Mhaka, Simbarashe
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Purchasing power parity -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50371 , vital:42152
- Description: The fluctuations of exchange rates prevent countries from achieving stability in their external account records. Appreciation or depreciation has effects on international trade. This thesis examines the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations on bilateral trade balances focusing on the SACU region. There are several theories made to explain the relationship between exchange rate and trade balances. In examining this phenomenon, this thesis will unveil if the purchasing power parity theory, the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve effect holds in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries. This analysis is divided into three parts. The first part examines the stability of the exchange rate in the SACU countries in the long run as given by the purchasing power parity. To test for the Purchasing Power Parity theory, the recently developed powerful unit root test was applied with multiple smooth structural breaks of Omay (2015), based on a Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form (FFFFF) on unique data of SACU countries covering the monthly period of 1995M01-2017M11. The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) results show that the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of all SACU members does not provide evidence for PPP theory. In terms of the real effective exchange rate (REER), the PPP condition holds in the case of South Africa only. Further unit root investigations were carried out using the panel data for all SACU members, NEER and REER. The FFFFF test results for panel data shows strong evidence of the PPP while the standard DF test rejects PPP theory in the SACU’s NEER. Both the standard DF and the FFFFF tests show strong evidence of PPP theory in the case of SACU’s REER. The second section of the analysis examines the Marshall-Lerner condition employing annual data from the period of 1980-2017. The import and export model were examined firstly in a time series format and then in a panel data format. The time series data was examined using the ARDL (PMG) model while the panel data used the panel ARDL, fully modified OLS (FMOLS) method and the Dynamic OLS (DOLS) method of estimation. The PMG/ARDL model shows no evidence to support the existence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in the short run for all SACU members. However, only two out of five countries show evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in the long run. There is strong evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in Namibia and Botswana in the long run using the PMG/ARDL model.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mhaka, Simbarashe
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Purchasing power parity -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50371 , vital:42152
- Description: The fluctuations of exchange rates prevent countries from achieving stability in their external account records. Appreciation or depreciation has effects on international trade. This thesis examines the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations on bilateral trade balances focusing on the SACU region. There are several theories made to explain the relationship between exchange rate and trade balances. In examining this phenomenon, this thesis will unveil if the purchasing power parity theory, the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve effect holds in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries. This analysis is divided into three parts. The first part examines the stability of the exchange rate in the SACU countries in the long run as given by the purchasing power parity. To test for the Purchasing Power Parity theory, the recently developed powerful unit root test was applied with multiple smooth structural breaks of Omay (2015), based on a Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form (FFFFF) on unique data of SACU countries covering the monthly period of 1995M01-2017M11. The Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) results show that the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of all SACU members does not provide evidence for PPP theory. In terms of the real effective exchange rate (REER), the PPP condition holds in the case of South Africa only. Further unit root investigations were carried out using the panel data for all SACU members, NEER and REER. The FFFFF test results for panel data shows strong evidence of the PPP while the standard DF test rejects PPP theory in the SACU’s NEER. Both the standard DF and the FFFFF tests show strong evidence of PPP theory in the case of SACU’s REER. The second section of the analysis examines the Marshall-Lerner condition employing annual data from the period of 1980-2017. The import and export model were examined firstly in a time series format and then in a panel data format. The time series data was examined using the ARDL (PMG) model while the panel data used the panel ARDL, fully modified OLS (FMOLS) method and the Dynamic OLS (DOLS) method of estimation. The PMG/ARDL model shows no evidence to support the existence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in the short run for all SACU members. However, only two out of five countries show evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in the long run. There is strong evidence of the Marshall-Lerner condition in Namibia and Botswana in the long run using the PMG/ARDL model.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The future of banking in South Africa towards 2055: disruptive innovation scenarios
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
- Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
- Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The impact of capital flows on real exchange rates in South Africa
- Authors: Mishi, Syden
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11466 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007089 , Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical theory suggests that free flows of external capital should be equilibrating and thereby facilitating smoothening of an economy's consumption or production patterns. South Africa has a very low savings rate, making it highly dependent on capital inflows which create instability and volatility in global markets. A policy dilemma is undoubtedly evident: capital inflows help to cater for the domestic low savings and at the same time the inflows pose instability, a threat on competitiveness and volatility challenges to the same economy due to their impact on exchange rates. The question is: are all forms of capital flows equally destabilizing? Since studies based on South Africa considered only the relationship between aggregate capital flows and real exchange rate, modelling individual components of capital flows could enlighten policy formulation even further. The composition of the flows and their effects on the composition of aggregate demand determine the evolution of real exchange rate response to surges in capital flows. Through co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques applied to South African data between 1990 and 2010, the study found out that foreign portfolio investment exerts the greatest appreciation effect on the South African real exchange rate, followed by other investment and finally foreign direct investment. Thus the impact of capital flows on real exchange rate in South Africa differs by type of capital. This presents varied policy implications.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mishi, Syden
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11466 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007089 , Capital movements -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical theory suggests that free flows of external capital should be equilibrating and thereby facilitating smoothening of an economy's consumption or production patterns. South Africa has a very low savings rate, making it highly dependent on capital inflows which create instability and volatility in global markets. A policy dilemma is undoubtedly evident: capital inflows help to cater for the domestic low savings and at the same time the inflows pose instability, a threat on competitiveness and volatility challenges to the same economy due to their impact on exchange rates. The question is: are all forms of capital flows equally destabilizing? Since studies based on South Africa considered only the relationship between aggregate capital flows and real exchange rate, modelling individual components of capital flows could enlighten policy formulation even further. The composition of the flows and their effects on the composition of aggregate demand determine the evolution of real exchange rate response to surges in capital flows. Through co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques applied to South African data between 1990 and 2010, the study found out that foreign portfolio investment exerts the greatest appreciation effect on the South African real exchange rate, followed by other investment and finally foreign direct investment. Thus the impact of capital flows on real exchange rate in South Africa differs by type of capital. This presents varied policy implications.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of crime in socio-economic development of Mdantsane township
- Authors: Matyeni, Bukelwa Wendy
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Crime -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Criminal behavior , Criminal justice, Administration of -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9204 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020425
- Description: This study examined the impact of crime on socio-economic development in Mdantsane Township which is an urban area under Buffalo city Municipality. The study is concerned with the growing rate of crime, which is perceived to have affected community development. A survey was conducted for this study and questionnaires were administered for data collection. The study found that Mdantsane area is fraught with problems of high unemployment, high crime levels and lack of physical infrastructure. It was shown that the levels of crime like robbery and assault cases are the order of the day. Many crimes are committed either during the day or at night. This study made several recommendations relating to what should be done to ensure that local residents, potential developers and investors feel safe in Mdantsane. Amongst other recommendations put forward are the establishment of community relations with the police, namely community policing forums (CPFs) and development community safety centres.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Matyeni, Bukelwa Wendy
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Crime -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Criminal behavior , Criminal justice, Administration of -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9204 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020425
- Description: This study examined the impact of crime on socio-economic development in Mdantsane Township which is an urban area under Buffalo city Municipality. The study is concerned with the growing rate of crime, which is perceived to have affected community development. A survey was conducted for this study and questionnaires were administered for data collection. The study found that Mdantsane area is fraught with problems of high unemployment, high crime levels and lack of physical infrastructure. It was shown that the levels of crime like robbery and assault cases are the order of the day. Many crimes are committed either during the day or at night. This study made several recommendations relating to what should be done to ensure that local residents, potential developers and investors feel safe in Mdantsane. Amongst other recommendations put forward are the establishment of community relations with the police, namely community policing forums (CPFs) and development community safety centres.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The impact of crime on the South African economic growth
- Authors: Mtati, Nokuzola Julia
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Crime -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Crime -- Sociological aspects , Economic development -- South Africa , Criminal behavior
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9131 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018644
- Description: Crime in South Africa has been escalating over the past few years. Crime affects all societies in South Africa. It occurs amongst the rich and the poor, in the suburbs as well as in the townships. Serious and violent crimes are reported in most of the national newspapers almost on daily basis. There is no single satisfactory answer as to the causes of crimes and its impact on the economy of South Africa. The aim of this research report is to assess the impact of crime in the South African economy. In order to formulate a conceptual and theoretical framework of the study, growth theories, namely neoclassical growth theory, Harrod-Domar growth model classical growth theory and endogenous growth theory were presented. Although all these growth theories relate to this study as crime cuts-across all sectors of the economy the endogenous growth theory was chosen as a theoretical framework on which to base this study. Endogenous growth theory deals with domestic absorption. Crime interferes with this absorption as it constitutes a cost to the economy. Firms lose profits whilst the opportunity cost of running prisons using a tax payers’ money continues to grow. This study is based on a quantitative research technique, using a vector error correction model (VECM) on a quarterly time series data over a period 2003 to 2011. The variables used to explain variations in economic growth over this period are crime, real interest rates, real exchange rates, unemployment and poverty. The findings of this study suggest that crime exerts a negative impact on economic growth in a long run in South Africa. However, this relationship is not statistically significant both in a short run and a long run. . However, no evidence of short run adjustments between crime and economic growth were found. There is a long run negative relationship between real interest rates and economic growth. This relationship is also statistically significant in a long run but not in a short run. However, the relationship between real interest rates and economic growth is positive in a short run. This can be explained by the fact that high interest rates attract foreign investments causing a rise in economic growth but in a long run high interest rates dampen domestic investments thereby aggravating the unemployment problem. Rising unemployment is likely to lead to increase levels of crime in South Africa. The results also show that unemployment has a negative relationship with economic growth both in the short run and a long run. However this relationship is not statistically significant in a short run but in a long run. Poverty has a negative relationship with economic growth in a short run but a positive relationship in a long run. However, in both instances the relationship between poverty and economic growth is not statistically significant. Real exchange rate has a positive relationship with economic growth in a long run but a negative relationship in a short run. This relationship is statistically significant in a long run but not in a short run. This means that the benefits of a weak currency in South Africa are realised in a long run. The implications of this study with regard to the variable of interest namely crime, is that crime constitutes a cost to the economy of South Africa. The econometric modelling used in this study suggests a negative relationship between crime and economic growth. This means that the problem of crime in South Africa goes beyond just simple counts on a number of offenses. Based on the findings of this study it is recommended that crime prevention is better than cure. Crime prevention should use a wide range of ideas and abilities found throughout the society. Community planning, neighbourhood action, juvenile advocacy, security planning, education and training are some of the ways in which crime actions can be mitigated in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mtati, Nokuzola Julia
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Crime -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Crime -- Sociological aspects , Economic development -- South Africa , Criminal behavior
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9131 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018644
- Description: Crime in South Africa has been escalating over the past few years. Crime affects all societies in South Africa. It occurs amongst the rich and the poor, in the suburbs as well as in the townships. Serious and violent crimes are reported in most of the national newspapers almost on daily basis. There is no single satisfactory answer as to the causes of crimes and its impact on the economy of South Africa. The aim of this research report is to assess the impact of crime in the South African economy. In order to formulate a conceptual and theoretical framework of the study, growth theories, namely neoclassical growth theory, Harrod-Domar growth model classical growth theory and endogenous growth theory were presented. Although all these growth theories relate to this study as crime cuts-across all sectors of the economy the endogenous growth theory was chosen as a theoretical framework on which to base this study. Endogenous growth theory deals with domestic absorption. Crime interferes with this absorption as it constitutes a cost to the economy. Firms lose profits whilst the opportunity cost of running prisons using a tax payers’ money continues to grow. This study is based on a quantitative research technique, using a vector error correction model (VECM) on a quarterly time series data over a period 2003 to 2011. The variables used to explain variations in economic growth over this period are crime, real interest rates, real exchange rates, unemployment and poverty. The findings of this study suggest that crime exerts a negative impact on economic growth in a long run in South Africa. However, this relationship is not statistically significant both in a short run and a long run. . However, no evidence of short run adjustments between crime and economic growth were found. There is a long run negative relationship between real interest rates and economic growth. This relationship is also statistically significant in a long run but not in a short run. However, the relationship between real interest rates and economic growth is positive in a short run. This can be explained by the fact that high interest rates attract foreign investments causing a rise in economic growth but in a long run high interest rates dampen domestic investments thereby aggravating the unemployment problem. Rising unemployment is likely to lead to increase levels of crime in South Africa. The results also show that unemployment has a negative relationship with economic growth both in the short run and a long run. However this relationship is not statistically significant in a short run but in a long run. Poverty has a negative relationship with economic growth in a short run but a positive relationship in a long run. However, in both instances the relationship between poverty and economic growth is not statistically significant. Real exchange rate has a positive relationship with economic growth in a long run but a negative relationship in a short run. This relationship is statistically significant in a long run but not in a short run. This means that the benefits of a weak currency in South Africa are realised in a long run. The implications of this study with regard to the variable of interest namely crime, is that crime constitutes a cost to the economy of South Africa. The econometric modelling used in this study suggests a negative relationship between crime and economic growth. This means that the problem of crime in South Africa goes beyond just simple counts on a number of offenses. Based on the findings of this study it is recommended that crime prevention is better than cure. Crime prevention should use a wide range of ideas and abilities found throughout the society. Community planning, neighbourhood action, juvenile advocacy, security planning, education and training are some of the ways in which crime actions can be mitigated in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of electricity on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Ndlovu, Vanessa Constance
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Power resources -- South Africa , Electric power consumption -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9022 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1019787
- Description: Since 1994, with many of its sanctions lifted, South Africa became a stronger economic power house in Africa leading the continent‘s industrial output and mineral production and generating a large proportion of Africa‘s electricity. The South African economy has since been growing at a fast pace which has also led to an increase in the demand for electricity. South Africa‘s generating capacity has remained constant through a consistently increasing demand, leading to an electricity shortfall. An immediate threat to South Africa‘s continued economic growth is a capacity constraint in terms of energy supply. Increasing economic growth coupled with the rapid industrialisation and mass electrification programme of the last decade, as well as planned and unplanned maintenance and coal stock pile problems led, in January 2008, to demand out stripping supply. With electricity being an important component of economic development, it is vital that the impact of the supply of electricity on the economic growth of the country be well understood. Currently few studies have been done on the analysis of this relationship in South Africa specifically and how this relationship impacts specific sectors of the economy that contributes to the total GDP of the country. This study has assumed rigorous application of Granger technique with proper statistical verification of assumptions, selection of relevant variables and provides trusted statistical forecasts. In an attempt to understand this relationship, an Econometric model has been developed to assess the impact of electricity supply and price on the economic growth of South Africa. In the empirical analysis section of this study it was found that with a forecast for GDP, past values of electricity prices and coal sales may be used to forecast electricity supply. It was also found that if we have a forecast value of future electricity price we can use past values of electricity supply and coal sales to forecast GDP for the next quarter. We also found that electricity supply is granger caused by GDP; electricity price; and total coal sales. And that economic growth is granger caused by electricity supply; electricity price; and total coal sales. It was concluded that in order for government to improve the economic growth of South Africa, a major focus on the energy industry is needed to ensure sustainable supply capacity. The energy sector, as was shown in the study, has a major impact in the functioning of the Gross Domestic Product of the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Ndlovu, Vanessa Constance
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Power resources -- South Africa , Electric power consumption -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9022 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1019787
- Description: Since 1994, with many of its sanctions lifted, South Africa became a stronger economic power house in Africa leading the continent‘s industrial output and mineral production and generating a large proportion of Africa‘s electricity. The South African economy has since been growing at a fast pace which has also led to an increase in the demand for electricity. South Africa‘s generating capacity has remained constant through a consistently increasing demand, leading to an electricity shortfall. An immediate threat to South Africa‘s continued economic growth is a capacity constraint in terms of energy supply. Increasing economic growth coupled with the rapid industrialisation and mass electrification programme of the last decade, as well as planned and unplanned maintenance and coal stock pile problems led, in January 2008, to demand out stripping supply. With electricity being an important component of economic development, it is vital that the impact of the supply of electricity on the economic growth of the country be well understood. Currently few studies have been done on the analysis of this relationship in South Africa specifically and how this relationship impacts specific sectors of the economy that contributes to the total GDP of the country. This study has assumed rigorous application of Granger technique with proper statistical verification of assumptions, selection of relevant variables and provides trusted statistical forecasts. In an attempt to understand this relationship, an Econometric model has been developed to assess the impact of electricity supply and price on the economic growth of South Africa. In the empirical analysis section of this study it was found that with a forecast for GDP, past values of electricity prices and coal sales may be used to forecast electricity supply. It was also found that if we have a forecast value of future electricity price we can use past values of electricity supply and coal sales to forecast GDP for the next quarter. We also found that electricity supply is granger caused by GDP; electricity price; and total coal sales. And that economic growth is granger caused by electricity supply; electricity price; and total coal sales. It was concluded that in order for government to improve the economic growth of South Africa, a major focus on the energy industry is needed to ensure sustainable supply capacity. The energy sector, as was shown in the study, has a major impact in the functioning of the Gross Domestic Product of the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The impact of financial development on private investment in south Africa
- Authors: Mukuya, Prisca R
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11488 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018210 , Economic development -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa
- Description: Empirical evidence and theoretical propositions suggest that financial development is strongly correlated to private investment because financial development positively affects investments by affecting capital accumulation, altering savings rate or by channelizing savings to various capital producing technologies. This study empirically investigated the impact of financial development on private investment in South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1994/01 to 2011/04. This study assess whether the theoretical and empirical propositions can be supported in South Africa. Cointegration tests using the Johansen approach (1988) were conducted to examine if there is a stable relationship in the level of private investment and financial development in South Africa. As a proxy for financial sector development, credit to private sector as per cent of GDP and stock market development were employed. Other variables that affect investment such as real interest rates and real GDP were also included in the model. Results of the study indicate that stock market development and real GDP have a positive relationship with private investment. Bank credit to the private sector however showed a negative relationship with private investment. A negative relationship was also noted for the relationship between private investment and real interest rates.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Mukuya, Prisca R
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11488 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018210 , Economic development -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa
- Description: Empirical evidence and theoretical propositions suggest that financial development is strongly correlated to private investment because financial development positively affects investments by affecting capital accumulation, altering savings rate or by channelizing savings to various capital producing technologies. This study empirically investigated the impact of financial development on private investment in South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1994/01 to 2011/04. This study assess whether the theoretical and empirical propositions can be supported in South Africa. Cointegration tests using the Johansen approach (1988) were conducted to examine if there is a stable relationship in the level of private investment and financial development in South Africa. As a proxy for financial sector development, credit to private sector as per cent of GDP and stock market development were employed. Other variables that affect investment such as real interest rates and real GDP were also included in the model. Results of the study indicate that stock market development and real GDP have a positive relationship with private investment. Bank credit to the private sector however showed a negative relationship with private investment. A negative relationship was also noted for the relationship between private investment and real interest rates.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The impact of foreign debt on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Shayanewako, V B
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Debts, External -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Government spending policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11477 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1015140 , Debts, External -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Government spending policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Description: This study analyses the economic impact between foreign debt and economic growth in South Africa. By fitting a production function model to annual data for the period 1980-2011, the study examines the dynamic effect of debt service, capital stock and labour force on the economic growth of the country. By following Cunningham (1993), it has identified the long-run and short-run causal relationships among the included variables. The results indicate that the debt servicing burden has a negative effect on the productivity of labour and capital, and thereby affect economic growth adversely. The results also illustrate that the debt service ratio tends to negatively affect GDP and the rate of economic growth in the long-run, which, in turn, reduces the ability of the country to service its debt. Similarly, the estimated error correction term shows the existence of a significant long-run causal relationship among the specified variables. Overall, the results suggest the existence of short-run and long-run causal relationships running from debt service to GDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Shayanewako, V B
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Debts, External -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Government spending policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11477 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1015140 , Debts, External -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Government spending policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Description: This study analyses the economic impact between foreign debt and economic growth in South Africa. By fitting a production function model to annual data for the period 1980-2011, the study examines the dynamic effect of debt service, capital stock and labour force on the economic growth of the country. By following Cunningham (1993), it has identified the long-run and short-run causal relationships among the included variables. The results indicate that the debt servicing burden has a negative effect on the productivity of labour and capital, and thereby affect economic growth adversely. The results also illustrate that the debt service ratio tends to negatively affect GDP and the rate of economic growth in the long-run, which, in turn, reduces the ability of the country to service its debt. Similarly, the estimated error correction term shows the existence of a significant long-run causal relationship among the specified variables. Overall, the results suggest the existence of short-run and long-run causal relationships running from debt service to GDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The impact of private capital flows on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Dzangare, Gillian
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007134 , Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: In this study an analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth measured as real GDP growth and private capital inflows is explored. The link between private capital inflows and economic growth is well-documented in the literature. However, a void in the literature relates to examining the cointegrating relationship between private capital inflows and economic growth particularly for South Africa. It is widely claimed that private capital inflows foster economic growth by closing the savings/investment gap. However, clarity on this point is necessary because of the seemingly unclear nature of the relationship in the literature. The exact form of this relationship as well as the nature of capital flows that could impact on real growth requires further investigation. Moreover, what exactly happens to this relationship in an economic crisis such as recently recorded in the global financial crisis is not clear. The analysis is undertaken by employing cointegration and vector error correction modeling approach using quarterly data for the period 1989q4-2009q4. This study employs the Johansen (1998) cointegration test. This technique distinguishes itself since it establishes the long run relationship between variables. Thereafter, residual diagnostic checks are performed on the variables. Our results show among others, that private capital inflows have impacted positively on the growth of the South African economy. The areas for further research that emerge from this study include the effect of some government policies on economic growth that should also receive more attention in the future since political instability slows down investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Dzangare, Gillian
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007134 , Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: In this study an analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth measured as real GDP growth and private capital inflows is explored. The link between private capital inflows and economic growth is well-documented in the literature. However, a void in the literature relates to examining the cointegrating relationship between private capital inflows and economic growth particularly for South Africa. It is widely claimed that private capital inflows foster economic growth by closing the savings/investment gap. However, clarity on this point is necessary because of the seemingly unclear nature of the relationship in the literature. The exact form of this relationship as well as the nature of capital flows that could impact on real growth requires further investigation. Moreover, what exactly happens to this relationship in an economic crisis such as recently recorded in the global financial crisis is not clear. The analysis is undertaken by employing cointegration and vector error correction modeling approach using quarterly data for the period 1989q4-2009q4. This study employs the Johansen (1998) cointegration test. This technique distinguishes itself since it establishes the long run relationship between variables. Thereafter, residual diagnostic checks are performed on the variables. Our results show among others, that private capital inflows have impacted positively on the growth of the South African economy. The areas for further research that emerge from this study include the effect of some government policies on economic growth that should also receive more attention in the future since political instability slows down investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of real exchange rates on economic growth: a case study of South Africa
- Authors: Sibanda, Kin
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11469 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007129 , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study examined the impact of real exchange rates on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period of 1994 to 2010. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model was used to determine the impact of real exchange on economic growth in South Africa. The explanatory variables in this study were real exchange rates, real interest rates, money supply, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation. Results from this study revealed that real exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation and real interest rates have a positive long run impact on economic growth, while money supply and trade openness have a negative long run impact on economic growth in South Africa. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency significantly hampers growth in the long run, whilst it significantly enhances economic growth in the short run. As such, the policy of depreciating the exchange rates to achieve higher growth rates is only effective in the short run and is not sustainable in the long run. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that misalignment (overvaluation and undervaluation) of the currency should be avoided at all costs. In addition, the results of the study showed that interest rates also have a significant impact on growth and since interest rates have a bearing on the exchange rate, it was recommended that the current monetary policy in South Africa should be maintained.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Sibanda, Kin
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11469 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007129 , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study examined the impact of real exchange rates on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period of 1994 to 2010. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model was used to determine the impact of real exchange on economic growth in South Africa. The explanatory variables in this study were real exchange rates, real interest rates, money supply, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation. Results from this study revealed that real exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation and real interest rates have a positive long run impact on economic growth, while money supply and trade openness have a negative long run impact on economic growth in South Africa. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency significantly hampers growth in the long run, whilst it significantly enhances economic growth in the short run. As such, the policy of depreciating the exchange rates to achieve higher growth rates is only effective in the short run and is not sustainable in the long run. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that misalignment (overvaluation and undervaluation) of the currency should be avoided at all costs. In addition, the results of the study showed that interest rates also have a significant impact on growth and since interest rates have a bearing on the exchange rate, it was recommended that the current monetary policy in South Africa should be maintained.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012