The impact of stock market development on economic growth: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Vacu, Nomfundo Portia
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Stock market development , Economic growth , South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11655 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1006983 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Stock market development , Economic growth , South Africa
- Description: The main objective of this study is to examine the long run relationship between stock market development and economic growth in the case of South Africa. The study used quarterly data covering the period from 1990Q1 to 2010Q4. To empirically test the link between the two variables, the study used the Johnson’s cointegration approach and Granger causality so as to test the direction of the relationship. The Vector Error Correction Model was also employed to capture both short run and long run dynamics. Generally, the results reveal that a long run relationship exists between the two variables and the causality flows from economic growth to stock market development. Also, the extent to which of stock market development impacts on growth is statistically weak.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Vacu, Nomfundo Portia
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Stock market development , Economic growth , South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11655 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1006983 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Stock market development , Economic growth , South Africa
- Description: The main objective of this study is to examine the long run relationship between stock market development and economic growth in the case of South Africa. The study used quarterly data covering the period from 1990Q1 to 2010Q4. To empirically test the link between the two variables, the study used the Johnson’s cointegration approach and Granger causality so as to test the direction of the relationship. The Vector Error Correction Model was also employed to capture both short run and long run dynamics. Generally, the results reveal that a long run relationship exists between the two variables and the causality flows from economic growth to stock market development. Also, the extent to which of stock market development impacts on growth is statistically weak.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The impact of Taxation and corruption on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Rabinda, Aluwani Malvin
- Date: 2022-12
- Subjects: Taxation , Corrupt practices , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , Thesis
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/59832 , vital:62444
- Description: Developing countries, such as South Africa, have been on a mission to reduce corruption, particularly in the public sector, and to collect as much revenue as possible through taxation to fund the government expenditures. Low levels of corruption, preferable zero and higher tax collections, can boost a country's economic growth and development by creating jobs and increasing economic activity, which leads to economic growth. South Africa is one of the economies that are characterised by high levels of corruption. For South Africa to attract more foreign investors in the country, it should ensure that resources are used efficiently and that any act of corruption is punished. This study looked at the effects of taxation and corruption on economic growth from 1975 to 2019. An econometric analysis technique was used in the study to test the impact of taxation and corruption on economic growth. The augmented Dickey–Fuller method was used to test for unit root. According to the results of the tests, unit root l(1) is rejected in favour of the stationarity alternative. The empirical analysis used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration advocated by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) to examine for the longrun equilibrium among taxation and corruption on economic growth. The Wald causality test was also used to investigate the causal relationship between taxation, corruption, and economic growth. According to the Bounds test results, there is long-run co-integrating positive relationship between trade openness and GDP, gross capital formation, Corruption, and income taxation. Furthermore, when dependent variable was tested for longrun impact, the results confirmed that taxation and corruption have insignificant impact on economic growth. Trade openness, as a percentage of GDP, has insignificant positive relationship with economic growth in South Africa. Gross Capital Formation, as a percentage of GDP, is positively related to economic growth. Furthermore, short-run findings suggest a positive significant relationship between trade openness as a percentage of Gross domestic product. Corruption and income taxation have negative and insignificant effect on GDP in the short term. Furthermore, GDP and gross capital formation have negative relationship. V Government should also encourage the culture of transparency and accountability as far as corruption is concerned to stimulate economic growth. This will also create a culture where government officials are called upon to explain their government expenditure patterns and be held accountable for any misuse of any funds flowing into the country. , Thesis (MCom)-- Faculty of Business and Economic Science, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-12
- Authors: Rabinda, Aluwani Malvin
- Date: 2022-12
- Subjects: Taxation , Corrupt practices , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , Thesis
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/59832 , vital:62444
- Description: Developing countries, such as South Africa, have been on a mission to reduce corruption, particularly in the public sector, and to collect as much revenue as possible through taxation to fund the government expenditures. Low levels of corruption, preferable zero and higher tax collections, can boost a country's economic growth and development by creating jobs and increasing economic activity, which leads to economic growth. South Africa is one of the economies that are characterised by high levels of corruption. For South Africa to attract more foreign investors in the country, it should ensure that resources are used efficiently and that any act of corruption is punished. This study looked at the effects of taxation and corruption on economic growth from 1975 to 2019. An econometric analysis technique was used in the study to test the impact of taxation and corruption on economic growth. The augmented Dickey–Fuller method was used to test for unit root. According to the results of the tests, unit root l(1) is rejected in favour of the stationarity alternative. The empirical analysis used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration advocated by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) to examine for the longrun equilibrium among taxation and corruption on economic growth. The Wald causality test was also used to investigate the causal relationship between taxation, corruption, and economic growth. According to the Bounds test results, there is long-run co-integrating positive relationship between trade openness and GDP, gross capital formation, Corruption, and income taxation. Furthermore, when dependent variable was tested for longrun impact, the results confirmed that taxation and corruption have insignificant impact on economic growth. Trade openness, as a percentage of GDP, has insignificant positive relationship with economic growth in South Africa. Gross Capital Formation, as a percentage of GDP, is positively related to economic growth. Furthermore, short-run findings suggest a positive significant relationship between trade openness as a percentage of Gross domestic product. Corruption and income taxation have negative and insignificant effect on GDP in the short term. Furthermore, GDP and gross capital formation have negative relationship. V Government should also encourage the culture of transparency and accountability as far as corruption is concerned to stimulate economic growth. This will also create a culture where government officials are called upon to explain their government expenditure patterns and be held accountable for any misuse of any funds flowing into the country. , Thesis (MCom)-- Faculty of Business and Economic Science, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-12
The relationship between electricity supply and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/9251 , vital:26483
- Description: Since democratisation of South Africa in 1994, the economy of South Africa underwent significant structural changes. Among these structural changes was electrification for the poor rural areas. During the apartheid era, about two-thirds of the nation lacked access to electricity and hence, provision for electricity to everyone was considered a crucial part of the economic development, post 1994. Since then economic growth and the demand for electricity in South Africa have been increasing at an unprecedented rate. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in the consumption of electricity. In responding to the high increase in the demand for electricity, the electricity utility planned to build new power stations and put back in use the ones which were mothballed. But unfortunately the plan for investment in these power stations was late and in 2008, the existing power stations could not manage to supply enough electricity. The demand for electricity was such that it nearly damaged the power generating circuit and the electricity supply utility had to resort to load shedding. The imbalance between electricity supply and demand led to industrial sectors losing on production and as a result led to a downturn in economic growth. It also led to an increase in electricity prices which had a negative effect on individual and private sectors’ purchasing power. It is against this background that this study is designed to investigate the long term relationship between economic growth and electricity supply. The additional variables such as electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment were included as intermittent variables to form a multivariate framework. This study also assesses the Granger causality between these variables to determine which variable supersedes the other. Two models were applied in this study: The Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger-causality. The ARDL bounds technique was used to detect the long term relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment using annual data from 1985 to 2014. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1988) for the research for the following reasons: Firstly, the ARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long term relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. Secondly, it is suitable to use for testing co-integration when a small sample data is used. Thirdly, it does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order e.g. integrated of order zero I(0), integrated of order one I(1) or fractionally integrated, for it to be applicable. Lastly, it does not rely on the properties of unit root datasets and this makes it possible for the Granger-causality to be applied in testing the long term relationships between the variables. The VECM Granger-causality is used to examine the Granger-causality between the chosen variables. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting when dealing with an unconstrained model. The unit root results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shit (KPSS). The ARDL bound approach outcomes revealed that economic growth, electricity supply, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital move together in the long term. There were three co-integrated equations under the export and trade models while under the import model there was one co-integrated equation. The results are such that electricity prices have a negative impact on economic growth. The results further evidenced that; electricity supply, trade openness, employment and capital have a positive impact on economic growth in the long term. The VECM Granger causality findings suggested a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply, trade, exports, electricity prices, employment and capital to economic growth in the long term. There was another unidirectional causality established flowing from economic growth, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital to electricity supply. A one-way causality flowing from economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, employment and capital to export was evidenced. Overall, the study’s results of bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity supply and economic growth have a number of implications for forecasters and policy makers. This feedback hypothesis implies that the high level of economic growth leads to a high level of electricity supply, which would stimulate economic growth. Hence, South Africa demonstrates a kind of electricity dependence in a manner that a sufficiently large supply of electricity seems to ensure high economic growth. Electricity supply is a vitally important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South African policy makers formulate investor friendly policies that will encourage, promote and attract capital inflows to stimulate electricity supply. The South African government needs to primarily deregulate the electricity supply industry which is owned by Eskom (a monopoly), and allow more investors into this industry. The government should promote a change to other forms of energy sources such as renewable energy sources which will play an important role in restoring the balance between electricity supply and consumption. Moreover, it is recommended that the electricity regulator should take steps to curb the severe electricity price increases and to ensure prices affordable to the poor communities. The policy makers need to implement some investor friendly policies that will encourage and promote capital formation. Furthermore, the government should invest towards more job creating sectors such as (Small and Medium Enterprises) SMEs. Finally, the government should take into consideration the importance of trade openness to attract international investments into the economy. It is hoped that the findings of this study would prove beneficial to policy makers in South Africa and elsewhere in the world where power outages are experienced, and assist them in combating the problem.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/9251 , vital:26483
- Description: Since democratisation of South Africa in 1994, the economy of South Africa underwent significant structural changes. Among these structural changes was electrification for the poor rural areas. During the apartheid era, about two-thirds of the nation lacked access to electricity and hence, provision for electricity to everyone was considered a crucial part of the economic development, post 1994. Since then economic growth and the demand for electricity in South Africa have been increasing at an unprecedented rate. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in the consumption of electricity. In responding to the high increase in the demand for electricity, the electricity utility planned to build new power stations and put back in use the ones which were mothballed. But unfortunately the plan for investment in these power stations was late and in 2008, the existing power stations could not manage to supply enough electricity. The demand for electricity was such that it nearly damaged the power generating circuit and the electricity supply utility had to resort to load shedding. The imbalance between electricity supply and demand led to industrial sectors losing on production and as a result led to a downturn in economic growth. It also led to an increase in electricity prices which had a negative effect on individual and private sectors’ purchasing power. It is against this background that this study is designed to investigate the long term relationship between economic growth and electricity supply. The additional variables such as electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment were included as intermittent variables to form a multivariate framework. This study also assesses the Granger causality between these variables to determine which variable supersedes the other. Two models were applied in this study: The Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger-causality. The ARDL bounds technique was used to detect the long term relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment using annual data from 1985 to 2014. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1988) for the research for the following reasons: Firstly, the ARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long term relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. Secondly, it is suitable to use for testing co-integration when a small sample data is used. Thirdly, it does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order e.g. integrated of order zero I(0), integrated of order one I(1) or fractionally integrated, for it to be applicable. Lastly, it does not rely on the properties of unit root datasets and this makes it possible for the Granger-causality to be applied in testing the long term relationships between the variables. The VECM Granger-causality is used to examine the Granger-causality between the chosen variables. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting when dealing with an unconstrained model. The unit root results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shit (KPSS). The ARDL bound approach outcomes revealed that economic growth, electricity supply, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital move together in the long term. There were three co-integrated equations under the export and trade models while under the import model there was one co-integrated equation. The results are such that electricity prices have a negative impact on economic growth. The results further evidenced that; electricity supply, trade openness, employment and capital have a positive impact on economic growth in the long term. The VECM Granger causality findings suggested a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply, trade, exports, electricity prices, employment and capital to economic growth in the long term. There was another unidirectional causality established flowing from economic growth, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital to electricity supply. A one-way causality flowing from economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, employment and capital to export was evidenced. Overall, the study’s results of bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity supply and economic growth have a number of implications for forecasters and policy makers. This feedback hypothesis implies that the high level of economic growth leads to a high level of electricity supply, which would stimulate economic growth. Hence, South Africa demonstrates a kind of electricity dependence in a manner that a sufficiently large supply of electricity seems to ensure high economic growth. Electricity supply is a vitally important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South African policy makers formulate investor friendly policies that will encourage, promote and attract capital inflows to stimulate electricity supply. The South African government needs to primarily deregulate the electricity supply industry which is owned by Eskom (a monopoly), and allow more investors into this industry. The government should promote a change to other forms of energy sources such as renewable energy sources which will play an important role in restoring the balance between electricity supply and consumption. Moreover, it is recommended that the electricity regulator should take steps to curb the severe electricity price increases and to ensure prices affordable to the poor communities. The policy makers need to implement some investor friendly policies that will encourage and promote capital formation. Furthermore, the government should invest towards more job creating sectors such as (Small and Medium Enterprises) SMEs. Finally, the government should take into consideration the importance of trade openness to attract international investments into the economy. It is hoped that the findings of this study would prove beneficial to policy makers in South Africa and elsewhere in the world where power outages are experienced, and assist them in combating the problem.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
The relationship between electricity supply, power outages and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Energy consumption -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9024 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020069
- Description: The economic boom in South Africa following the 1994 democratisation led to increased welfare of the citizens and their purchasing power. This further resulted in increase in electricity consumption. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in electricity consumption leading to the 2008 shortage of electricity which nearly damaged the power generating circuit. The literature review has shown that electricity supply and consumption have a positive impact on economic growth. It further showed that employment enhances economic growth. Conversely, it showed that power outages negatively affect economic growth. The research serves to investigate the relationship between electricity supply and economic growth in South Africa and to examine the impact of power outages on economic growth. It also seeks to find the appropriate structure for electricity supply industry that will lead to increase in economic growth. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach was used to find the relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, power outages and employment using quarterly data from 2000 to 2012. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Johansen technique for the research because it uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long run relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. The ARDL technique is also suitable to use to test co-integration when a small sample data is used and does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger causality was also employed in the study to establish the causality between economic growth and electricity supply. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting, when dealing with an unconstrained model. The results from the ARDL bounds test showed that there is a long run relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, power outages and employment. Based on the causality tests, the findings showed a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply to economic growth. This implies that electricity supply affect economic growth in South Africa. The results further showed no causality flowing from economic growth to electricity supply which indicates that when economic growth is booming fewer funds are used for improvement of the electricity generation. Lastly, the results showed that power outages negatively affect economic growth in the long run. To sum up, electricity supply is an important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South Africa must put in place measures aimed at stimulating electricity supply. One of the measures aimed at increasing output of electricity is to unbundle the electricity sector. This process involves allowing entry of the Independent Power Producers (IPPs), Independent System Operator (ISO) and Regional Electricity Distributors (REDs). This will lead to increased supply of electricity and competitively lower prices of electricity. The study further recommends that renewable energy sources should be used to produce electricity instead of coal and nuclear fuels as they failed to produce enough electricity for the nation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Energy consumption -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9024 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020069
- Description: The economic boom in South Africa following the 1994 democratisation led to increased welfare of the citizens and their purchasing power. This further resulted in increase in electricity consumption. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in electricity consumption leading to the 2008 shortage of electricity which nearly damaged the power generating circuit. The literature review has shown that electricity supply and consumption have a positive impact on economic growth. It further showed that employment enhances economic growth. Conversely, it showed that power outages negatively affect economic growth. The research serves to investigate the relationship between electricity supply and economic growth in South Africa and to examine the impact of power outages on economic growth. It also seeks to find the appropriate structure for electricity supply industry that will lead to increase in economic growth. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach was used to find the relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, power outages and employment using quarterly data from 2000 to 2012. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Johansen technique for the research because it uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long run relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. The ARDL technique is also suitable to use to test co-integration when a small sample data is used and does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger causality was also employed in the study to establish the causality between economic growth and electricity supply. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting, when dealing with an unconstrained model. The results from the ARDL bounds test showed that there is a long run relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, power outages and employment. Based on the causality tests, the findings showed a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply to economic growth. This implies that electricity supply affect economic growth in South Africa. The results further showed no causality flowing from economic growth to electricity supply which indicates that when economic growth is booming fewer funds are used for improvement of the electricity generation. Lastly, the results showed that power outages negatively affect economic growth in the long run. To sum up, electricity supply is an important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South Africa must put in place measures aimed at stimulating electricity supply. One of the measures aimed at increasing output of electricity is to unbundle the electricity sector. This process involves allowing entry of the Independent Power Producers (IPPs), Independent System Operator (ISO) and Regional Electricity Distributors (REDs). This will lead to increased supply of electricity and competitively lower prices of electricity. The study further recommends that renewable energy sources should be used to produce electricity instead of coal and nuclear fuels as they failed to produce enough electricity for the nation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa: 1980 - 2010
- Authors: Mudenda, Caroline
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11463 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007044 , Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This study examined the role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa. The study used annual time series data for the period covering 1980 to 2010 and employed a Vector Error Correction Model to determine the effects of export diversification and possible factors that affect it on economic growth. Possible factors that affect export diversification considered as independent variables in this study include gross capital formation, human capital, real effective exchange rate and trade openness. Results of the study reveal that export diversification and trade openness are positively related to economic growth while real effective exchange rate, capital formation and human capital have negative long run relationships with economic growth. The study recommended the continual implementation of trade liberalisation by the South African government. The South African government is also encouraged to promote the production of a diversified export basket through subsidisation, promotion of innovation and production of new products.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mudenda, Caroline
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11463 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007044 , Economic development -- South Africa , International trade , Exports -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Human capital -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This study examined the role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa. The study used annual time series data for the period covering 1980 to 2010 and employed a Vector Error Correction Model to determine the effects of export diversification and possible factors that affect it on economic growth. Possible factors that affect export diversification considered as independent variables in this study include gross capital formation, human capital, real effective exchange rate and trade openness. Results of the study reveal that export diversification and trade openness are positively related to economic growth while real effective exchange rate, capital formation and human capital have negative long run relationships with economic growth. The study recommended the continual implementation of trade liberalisation by the South African government. The South African government is also encouraged to promote the production of a diversified export basket through subsidisation, promotion of innovation and production of new products.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The yield curve as a forecasting tool : does the yield spread predict recessions in South Africa?
- Authors: Khomo, Melvin Muzi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1040 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722 , Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Khomo, Melvin Muzi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1040 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722 , Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
Trade union investment schemes: a blemish on the social movement unionism outlook of South African unions?
- Authors: Rubushe, Melikaya
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Labor unions -- South Africa , Labor unions and communism , Cosatu , Economic development -- South Africa , National Union of Mineworkers (South Africa) , Labor unions -- Finance , Business enterprises, Black -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSocSc
- Identifier: vital:3331 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003119 , Labor unions -- South Africa , Labor unions and communism , Cosatu , Economic development -- South Africa , National Union of Mineworkers (South Africa) , Labor unions -- Finance , Business enterprises, Black -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Description: South African trade unions affiliated to Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) have taken advantage of the arrival of democracy and newly found opportunities available through Black Economic Empowerment to venture into the world of business by setting up their own investment companies. The declared desire behind these ventures was to break the stranglehold of white capital on the economy and to extend participation in the economic activities of the country to previously disadvantaged communities. Using the National Union of Mineworkers and the Mineworkers’ Investment Company as case studies, this dissertation seeks to determine whether unions affiliated to the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) are advancing the struggle for socialism through their investment schemes. Secondly, the dissertation determines whether, in the activities of the schemes, internal democracy is preserved and strengthened. The theoretical framework of this dissertation emerges from arguments advanced by Lenin and Gramsci on the limitations of trade unions in terms of their role in the struggle against capitalism. In addition, the argument draws on the assertions by Michels regarding the proneness of trade union leadership to adopt oligarchic tendencies in their approach to leadership. Of interest is how, according to Gramsci, trade unions are prone to accepting concessions from the capitalist system that renders them ameliorative rather than transformative. Drawing from Michels’ ‘iron law of oligarchy’, the thesis examines whether there is space for ordinary members of the unions to express views on the working of the union investment companies. By looking at the extent to which the investment initiatives of the companies mirror the preferences of the ordinary members of the unions, one can determine the level of disjuncture between the two. The study relies on data collected through interviews and documentary material. Interviews provide first-hand knowledge of how respondents experience the impact of the investment schemes. This provides a balanced analysis given that documents reflect policy stances whereas interviews provide data on whether these have the stated impact. What the study shows is a clear absence of space for ordinary members to directly influence the workings of union investment companies. It is also established that, in their current form, the schemes operate more as a perpetuation of the capitalist logic than offering an alternative system.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
- Authors: Rubushe, Melikaya
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Labor unions -- South Africa , Labor unions and communism , Cosatu , Economic development -- South Africa , National Union of Mineworkers (South Africa) , Labor unions -- Finance , Business enterprises, Black -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSocSc
- Identifier: vital:3331 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1003119 , Labor unions -- South Africa , Labor unions and communism , Cosatu , Economic development -- South Africa , National Union of Mineworkers (South Africa) , Labor unions -- Finance , Business enterprises, Black -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Description: South African trade unions affiliated to Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) have taken advantage of the arrival of democracy and newly found opportunities available through Black Economic Empowerment to venture into the world of business by setting up their own investment companies. The declared desire behind these ventures was to break the stranglehold of white capital on the economy and to extend participation in the economic activities of the country to previously disadvantaged communities. Using the National Union of Mineworkers and the Mineworkers’ Investment Company as case studies, this dissertation seeks to determine whether unions affiliated to the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) are advancing the struggle for socialism through their investment schemes. Secondly, the dissertation determines whether, in the activities of the schemes, internal democracy is preserved and strengthened. The theoretical framework of this dissertation emerges from arguments advanced by Lenin and Gramsci on the limitations of trade unions in terms of their role in the struggle against capitalism. In addition, the argument draws on the assertions by Michels regarding the proneness of trade union leadership to adopt oligarchic tendencies in their approach to leadership. Of interest is how, according to Gramsci, trade unions are prone to accepting concessions from the capitalist system that renders them ameliorative rather than transformative. Drawing from Michels’ ‘iron law of oligarchy’, the thesis examines whether there is space for ordinary members of the unions to express views on the working of the union investment companies. By looking at the extent to which the investment initiatives of the companies mirror the preferences of the ordinary members of the unions, one can determine the level of disjuncture between the two. The study relies on data collected through interviews and documentary material. Interviews provide first-hand knowledge of how respondents experience the impact of the investment schemes. This provides a balanced analysis given that documents reflect policy stances whereas interviews provide data on whether these have the stated impact. What the study shows is a clear absence of space for ordinary members to directly influence the workings of union investment companies. It is also established that, in their current form, the schemes operate more as a perpetuation of the capitalist logic than offering an alternative system.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
Trends and determinants of inward foreign direct investment to South Africa
- Authors: Rusike, Tatonga Gardner
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:995 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002730 , International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to provide the needed capital inflow to stimulate growth in a domestic economy. FDI can also result in increased employment levels, managerial skills and increase in technology. In efforts to attract FDI, host countries have undertaken various policy incentives to attract foreign investors. This study analyses the trends and determinants of inward FDI to South Africa for the period 1975-2005. The study starts by reviewing FDI literature on its determinants and provides the macroeconomic background and FDI related policies undertaken in South Africa. The trend and sectoral analysis provides the actual nature of FDI flows to South Africa. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical determinants of FDI is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. The study also augments the cointegration framework with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to complement the long and short run determinants of FDI. Dummy variables are used in each of the estimated FDI models to take into account the possibility of structural breaks. Results show that relative to the size of the economy and to other developing countries, South Africa still receives low levels of inward FDI. Only are few years are exceptional i.e. 1997, 2001 and 2005. From the sectoral distribution, the financial sector is now the major recipient of FDI followed by the mining and manufacturing sectors. The emergence of the financial sector could suggest that FDI motives could have shifted from the natural resource seeking and market seeking to efficiency seeking FDI. The United Kingdom emerges as the major source of FDI to South Africa followed by United States of America and Germany. Empirical analysis indicated that openness, exchange rate and financial development are important long run determinants of FDI. Increased openness and financial development attract FDI while an increase (depreciation) in the exchange rate deters FDI to South Africa. Market size emerges as a short run determinant of FDI although it is declining in importance. Most of the impulse response analysis confirmed the VECM findings. Variance decomposition analysis showed that FDI itself, imports and exchange rate explain a significant amount of the forecast error variance. The influence of market size variable is small and declining over time.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Rusike, Tatonga Gardner
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:995 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002730 , International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to provide the needed capital inflow to stimulate growth in a domestic economy. FDI can also result in increased employment levels, managerial skills and increase in technology. In efforts to attract FDI, host countries have undertaken various policy incentives to attract foreign investors. This study analyses the trends and determinants of inward FDI to South Africa for the period 1975-2005. The study starts by reviewing FDI literature on its determinants and provides the macroeconomic background and FDI related policies undertaken in South Africa. The trend and sectoral analysis provides the actual nature of FDI flows to South Africa. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical determinants of FDI is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. The study also augments the cointegration framework with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to complement the long and short run determinants of FDI. Dummy variables are used in each of the estimated FDI models to take into account the possibility of structural breaks. Results show that relative to the size of the economy and to other developing countries, South Africa still receives low levels of inward FDI. Only are few years are exceptional i.e. 1997, 2001 and 2005. From the sectoral distribution, the financial sector is now the major recipient of FDI followed by the mining and manufacturing sectors. The emergence of the financial sector could suggest that FDI motives could have shifted from the natural resource seeking and market seeking to efficiency seeking FDI. The United Kingdom emerges as the major source of FDI to South Africa followed by United States of America and Germany. Empirical analysis indicated that openness, exchange rate and financial development are important long run determinants of FDI. Increased openness and financial development attract FDI while an increase (depreciation) in the exchange rate deters FDI to South Africa. Market size emerges as a short run determinant of FDI although it is declining in importance. Most of the impulse response analysis confirmed the VECM findings. Variance decomposition analysis showed that FDI itself, imports and exchange rate explain a significant amount of the forecast error variance. The influence of market size variable is small and declining over time.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Why has South Africa been relatively unsuccessful at attracting inward foreign direct investment since 1994?
- Authors: Fulton, Mark Hugh John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Africa, Southern , Investments, Foreign -- Chile , Investments, Foreign -- Botswana , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries , Political corruption -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1097 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013056
- Description: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into South Africa have been very low for several decades, and this research examines the reason(s) why this has been the case since 1994. There is a common belief amongst economists that there is a positive relationship between the amount of FDI received and economic growth, thus the desire to attract greater FDI inflows. A literature review was conducted to establish the determinants of FDI globally and then data were collected and assessed to test which causes are most important. The performance of developing nations in attracting FDI was first compared with that of the developed nations. Thereafter, a regional breakdown of FDI flows was presented, with a particular focus on the Southern African region. FDI inflows to South Africa since 1994 were compared against the identified determinants of FDI, as well as with FDI inflows into two other major mining economies, Chile and Botswana. The friendliness of the government towards business was identified as a significant determinant of FDI inflows and the importance of this factor in explaining FDI inflows into environment in South Africa was looked at in more depth. It was found that many investors perceive the South African government as hostile towards business and as corrupt and/or inefficient. The empirical results show that this negative perception helps explain the FDI inflows attracted by South Africa since 1994. Therefore, increased friendliness to business by the government should increase future inward FDI flows into South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Fulton, Mark Hugh John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Africa, Southern , Investments, Foreign -- Chile , Investments, Foreign -- Botswana , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries , Political corruption -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1097 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013056
- Description: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into South Africa have been very low for several decades, and this research examines the reason(s) why this has been the case since 1994. There is a common belief amongst economists that there is a positive relationship between the amount of FDI received and economic growth, thus the desire to attract greater FDI inflows. A literature review was conducted to establish the determinants of FDI globally and then data were collected and assessed to test which causes are most important. The performance of developing nations in attracting FDI was first compared with that of the developed nations. Thereafter, a regional breakdown of FDI flows was presented, with a particular focus on the Southern African region. FDI inflows to South Africa since 1994 were compared against the identified determinants of FDI, as well as with FDI inflows into two other major mining economies, Chile and Botswana. The friendliness of the government towards business was identified as a significant determinant of FDI inflows and the importance of this factor in explaining FDI inflows into environment in South Africa was looked at in more depth. It was found that many investors perceive the South African government as hostile towards business and as corrupt and/or inefficient. The empirical results show that this negative perception helps explain the FDI inflows attracted by South Africa since 1994. Therefore, increased friendliness to business by the government should increase future inward FDI flows into South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014