The impact of foreign debt on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Shayanewako, V B
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Debts, External -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Government spending policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11477 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1015140 , Debts, External -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Government spending policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Description: This study analyses the economic impact between foreign debt and economic growth in South Africa. By fitting a production function model to annual data for the period 1980-2011, the study examines the dynamic effect of debt service, capital stock and labour force on the economic growth of the country. By following Cunningham (1993), it has identified the long-run and short-run causal relationships among the included variables. The results indicate that the debt servicing burden has a negative effect on the productivity of labour and capital, and thereby affect economic growth adversely. The results also illustrate that the debt service ratio tends to negatively affect GDP and the rate of economic growth in the long-run, which, in turn, reduces the ability of the country to service its debt. Similarly, the estimated error correction term shows the existence of a significant long-run causal relationship among the specified variables. Overall, the results suggest the existence of short-run and long-run causal relationships running from debt service to GDP.
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- Date Issued: 2013
The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
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- Date Issued: 2007
Financial liberalisation and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Sibanda, Hlanganani Siqondile.
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Finance -- Management , Capital movements -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Expenditures, Public
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11471 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007131 , Economic development -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Finance -- Management , Capital movements -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Expenditures, Public
- Description: This study examined the impact of financial liberalisation on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period 1980 to 2010. A vector error correction model was used to determine the short run and long run effects of financial liberalisation on economic growth in South Africa. The other explanatory variables considered in this study were government expenditure, investment ratio, public expenditure on education and trade openness. Results from this study revealed that financial liberalisation, government expenditure and public expenditure on education have a positive impact on economic growth while trade openness negatively affects economic growth in South Africa. Policy recommendations were made using these results.
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- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of real exchange rates on economic growth: a case study of South Africa
- Authors: Sibanda, Kin
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11469 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007129 , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study examined the impact of real exchange rates on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period of 1994 to 2010. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model was used to determine the impact of real exchange on economic growth in South Africa. The explanatory variables in this study were real exchange rates, real interest rates, money supply, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation. Results from this study revealed that real exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation and real interest rates have a positive long run impact on economic growth, while money supply and trade openness have a negative long run impact on economic growth in South Africa. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency significantly hampers growth in the long run, whilst it significantly enhances economic growth in the short run. As such, the policy of depreciating the exchange rates to achieve higher growth rates is only effective in the short run and is not sustainable in the long run. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that misalignment (overvaluation and undervaluation) of the currency should be avoided at all costs. In addition, the results of the study showed that interest rates also have a significant impact on growth and since interest rates have a bearing on the exchange rate, it was recommended that the current monetary policy in South Africa should be maintained.
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- Date Issued: 2012
Assessing the impact of the transition from MIDP to APDP in the South African automotive industry
- Authors: Strydom, Elwin
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/5908 , vital:21010
- Description: The South African automotive industry is by no means a ―cut and paste‖ version of their overseas counterparts. The industry and the market are very complex. The historical background of the industry is such that companies have difficulty forming partnerships and joint ventures with bigger international conglomerates. The difficulty with this kind of mindset is that it is restricting growth and development of the nation as a whole. Globalisation is a future we cannot be avoided. Should the nation continue to reject it and embrace the mindset of countries in Africa, South Africa (SA) will continue on the path that the rest of Africa is heading, a path that leading to self-destruct and segregation. Even though SA is a developing country, it is in some areas as developed as many other first world countries. For a country to generate wealth it needs to be innovative and develop an entrepreneurial consciousness. A young country like South Africa needs creative thinkers and opportunists that can see into the future, seizing every opportunity, to grow and develop new ideas and business. In order for a country to grow it needs a leadership that is to nurture the baby of innovation. If South Africa wants to be part of the global village it need to develop a trade policy that welcomes trade and at the same time creates stable and sustainable jobs. The environment for investments needs to be cultivated in a problem-free and growth prone nation. This can only happen when the educational level of the nation is improved. The fact that so many skilled workers need to be imported creates tension in the labour market. People with talent need to have a reason to stay in the country. Their salaries should match that of their overseas counterparts. Furthermore, with the same skill level and work ethic, should have the same rewards and remuneration.
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- Date Issued: 2015
Elasticity of the South African economy towards portfolio investments in BRICS countries
- Authors: Taonezvi, Lovemore
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44537 , vital:38141
- Description: The emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have been experiencing high growth rates since the turn of the millennium, whereas economic growth has been elusive in South Africa. As the newest member of BRICS, South Africa is expected to economically benefit through, amongst others, increases in capital flows, foreign investments by local firms, and increases in trade. Such benefits are anticipated to propel the country’s economic growth, thereby helping it to tackle its chronic problems of high unemployment, poverty, and economic inequality. The inclusion of South Africa in BRICS has, however, been viewed by critics as erroneous, since the country has, inter alia, poor economic growth; a small economy and population; and political instability. While foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows to South Africa have surged in recent years, economic growth has remained lacklustre. These flows have also faced sudden reversals, especially during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. With the potential to leverage its growth from intra-BRICS FPI inflows, it becomes of paramount significance for policymakers to have knowledge of the South African economy’s responsiveness to such inflows. With a theoretical framework based on the endogenous growth model, an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function was extended in this thesis in order to study the relationship between BRICS growth and intra-BRICS FPI in a dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) context. Similarly, the South African economy’s elasticity towards intraBRICS FPI was estimated. Vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis was used to evaluate the responsiveness of South Africa’s economy to an innovative shock to intra-BRICS FPI. Annual and quarterly data for the period 2000-2016 were used in panel data and VAR analysis, respectively. It was found that intra-BRICS FPI flows have a positive and statistically significant relationship with BRICS growth, while the elasticity of the South African economy to these flows is estimated at 0.007. Additionally, the efficiency and accessibility dimensions of financial market development do not assist FPI in promoting growth in BRICS, while financial market depth does. South Africa’s BRICS membership has a positive effect on its own growth, while for other BRICS nations, this membership is negative and insignificant. Credit rating downgrades have a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth, while the negative impact for inflation, government expenditure, and total labour employment is significant. Conversely, gross capital formation and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with BRICS growth. The study also determined that a unit shock on intra-BRICS FPI resulted in negative fluctuations of South Africa’s economy within the first eight quarters before being positive and mostly constant thereafter. By supplementing domestic savings and facilitating the international integration of domestic financial markets, FPI promotes growth in BRICS. The short-term, ease of reversibility, and speculative nature of FPI are amongst some of the reasons for its destabilising effect on South Africa’s economy. Furthermore, inflation is a key determinant of FPI inflows to South Africa. Additional BRIC cooperation in FPI and trade; increased investments in domestic capital; reductions of inflation and corruption; investments in education and skills development; and stock market reforms are some of the recommendations for BRIC, and South Africa in particular. South Africa can consider prudential use of a mix of capital account controls, as well as fiscal and monetary policies to cushion its economy from FPI shocks in the short- to medium-term.
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- Date Issued: 2019
Official development assistance (ODA): coordination, management and its impact in the National Department of Science and Technology (DST)
- Authors: Tena, Mokgadi
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic sssistance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9161 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020023
- Description: South Africa (SA) has been a recipient of Official Development Assistance (ODA) prior to the democratic elections in 1994. Even though there has been progress in terms of aligning the ODA to SA government priorities and the good aid management principles, it has been a challenge to trace the amount of the ODA received across government departments and its impact thereon. For various reasons, reporting on the impact of the ODA has been very challenging for most of the departments. Some departments do not use government systems such as the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) account, through which it is required by the Policy Framework and Procedural Guidelines for the Management of ODA that all funds are transferred and channelled. As stipulated in the Policy Framework and Procedural Guidelines for the Management of ODA, the ODA is targeted towards innovation, piloting and value-add, as it only constitutes 1.5 percent of the overall budget of the country. As a result, most government departments utilise ODA as a gap-filler, to pay for unplanned activities that would have otherwise not been budgeted for in the government’s fiscal budget. This leads to departments not reporting as they fear that the ODA will then be withdrawn from them (Policy Guidelines2003). The Department of Science and Technology is one of the South African government departments that received high ODA for the period 2005-2011. The department not only spans across all sectors in terms of research and capacity development, but it has also established strategic international partnerships to collaborate in the research arena. In light of the above, it is interesting to explore how coordination is carried out and what impact if any; 2 the ODA has on the proposed Department of Science and Technology projects. This study explores the Department of Science and Technology, which is a recipient and implementer of ODA, and analyses how they co-ordinate, utilise and report on the ODA. The project that will be analysed is a Sector Budget Support Programme that focuses on poverty alleviation within the capacity development sector.
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- Date Issued: 2013
The impact of stock market development on economic growth: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Vacu, Nomfundo Portia
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Stock market development , Economic growth , South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11655 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1006983 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Stocks -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Stock market development , Economic growth , South Africa
- Description: The main objective of this study is to examine the long run relationship between stock market development and economic growth in the case of South Africa. The study used quarterly data covering the period from 1990Q1 to 2010Q4. To empirically test the link between the two variables, the study used the Johnson’s cointegration approach and Granger causality so as to test the direction of the relationship. The Vector Error Correction Model was also employed to capture both short run and long run dynamics. Generally, the results reveal that a long run relationship exists between the two variables and the causality flows from economic growth to stock market development. Also, the extent to which of stock market development impacts on growth is statistically weak.
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- Date Issued: 2013
Assessing BEE policy's viability in advancing establishment and survival of SMMes in South Africa
- Authors: Waithaka, Stephen Kiumi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Small business -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/4376 , vital:20591
- Description: Black Economic Empowerment is an ideology and policy that was effected so as to streamline the inequalities that were and have been left to stand after the apartheid era in South Africa. Despite the mixed reactions that would surface as a result of the underpinnings of the policy, the main focus of the policy was and still is to provide for equality and build better business among the economic minority who in this case are the “black” people of South Africa. This report focuses on the policy and the different guidelines that have been set in place to counter the inequalities in businesses and economy with focus being on SMMEs and looking at ways in which various sections, especially the score card, with regard to exemptions to small businesses, how this aids them in achieving BEE compliance. The research accomplished this by looking at the requirements of the score card, focusing mainly on the stipulations placed on SMMEs and by the use of literary reports gathered information that would show whether the exemptions give the said enterprises added competitive advantage. The research produced a couple of findings; that although theoretically the necessity of boosting economic growth and business of one of the most productive enterprise sectors in an economy and the fact that the score card has focused infinitely on the need for SMMEs not to be fully focused on a specific cluster of criterion in the score card but more on which criterion would work best for them and which ones are easy to maneuver around to ensure maximum growth and contribution, there is the loop hole that is experienced of how this criterion is met and passed with disregard to actualization of the need to adhere to the strictness of the rules of how compliance is attained. There was also the main issue of fronting which is the falsification of ownership of a company by providing misleading information about the directors and owners of the business. The main conclusions drawn from this research are that it is important not to lose the foresight that the policy is meant to enhance and grow the economic ability of a sector and build business through which the policy makes very heavy recommendations but there are shortfalls experienced with regard to how compliance is approached putting into consideration that SMMEs have been given exemptions in the number of pillars of the score card they can apply to their business. It is also important to note that the influence and bulldozing that is expected when it comes to dealing with policies of this nature is not to be sidelined. This research aims to look at the discrepancies that are set out within the structures that hold the policy together so as to attain maximum results.
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- Date Issued: 2011
Exploring a capacity development framework for South African foreign economic representatives
- Authors: Williams, Mario Rene
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Finance, Public South Africa -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/13491 , vital:27210
- Description: Commercial trading in various formats has characterised relations between humans for centuries. However, in a world driven by higher levels of consumption, and where citizens demand higher returns for their hard-earned taxes, governments are becoming more active in ensuring favourable conditions for their own enterprises, either operating or seeking to operate, in foreign markets, as well as local enterprises that seek to extract value from foreign markets. The past failure of the markets to self-regulate, with the recent events of the 2008/09 market crash, gave fresh impetus for governments to play a more active role in ensuring favourable outcomes for their local economies. To be effective, requires the deployments of capable officials to fulfil this mandate. However, given that governments have traditionally not operated in the sphere of what is termed as ‘commercial diplomacy’, it is evident that a concerted effort needs to be made to have a skilled and capable workforce which can function in both the commercial and diplomatic market spaces across the world. Against the background sketched above, the South African government, with the dti spearheading the initiative, has been running capacity building programmes to train officials as designate FERs, to function as commercial diplomats in targeted foreign markets. This contrasts with its sister-department, DIRCO, which has established 126 foreign missions focusing on political diplomacy. Anecdotal evidence, and previous capacity building reports, have highlighted the need for a framework to regulate and inform the development of officials. Due to the framework’s broader focus, and the acknowledgement of the rich experiences of the officials being trained in the programme, it has been termed as capacity development. An initial review of the topic, revealed that there had been limited research into a framework that regulates the capacity development of foreign economic representatives (FERs), the term used for commercial diplomats of the South African government. Thus, the purpose of this study was to explore a capacity development framework (CDF) for South African FERs. This exploratory capacity development framework will then be tested, to inform the capacity development programme used for the training of designated FERs. To achieve this goal, a literature review of academic sources of information regarding the concepts of commercial diplomacy, capacity development and conceptual frameworks, was conducted. This led to the development of a qualitative questionnaire which was then distributed to all currently posted (27) and returned FERs (33), with 18 completed questionnaires returned. The questionnaire contained both closed and open-ended statements that delved deeper into the experiences and opinions held by the respondents. Using the dti as a case study, the content analysis method, which uses open coding, was applied to identify the theme and codes emanating from the data. This was assessed against the research questions (RQs) constructed in the research proposal, and was found to be in line with the sentiments flowing from the research data. The theme, indicated as capacity development and its concomitant codes (Process, Content, Technology and Management Support), thus formed the basis and skeleton of the exploratory capacity development framework. The codes were further analysed and sub-codes identified, which were incorporated into the exploratory capacity development framework. The analysis further revealed that, while the dti is committed to ensuring the designate FERs are adequately capacitated before being posted, much more could be done to improve the efficacy of the training provided. To this end, a number of gaps were identified from the data and these will need to be addressed to ensure that an effective capacity development programme is developed.
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- Date Issued: 2017