The predictive ability of the yield spread in timing the stock exchange: a South African case
- Authors: Cook, Jenna
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Stocks -- Mathematical models , Probits , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147025 , vital:38586
- Description: The use of the yield curve in forecasting economic recessions is well established in the literature. A new avenue of use for the yield curve has emerged in the form of using it to forecast bull and bear stock markets. This has the potential to change how investors manage portfolios. A dynamic market-timing strategy would allow investors to shift out of or in to stock markets based on the probability of bear stock market in the future. The relationship between the yield curve and the stock market is tested using an adapted probit model. This has proven positive with encouraging results for the US, India and Spain. This is tested for South Africa using the adapted probit model and the SA yield spread. Bear stock markets are identified on the JSE and forms part of the probit modelling process. Bear markets are identified using a six- and four-month criteria. As South Africa is a small, open and developing economy, the probit is also modelled using the US yield spread. The three probit models do not appear to track bear markets well. This is substantiated through the Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability. The results for the SA yield spread using both bear market criteria do not show market timing ability, however, the SA and US yield spread model does show potential market timing ability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Cook, Jenna
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Stocks -- Mathematical models , Probits , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147025 , vital:38586
- Description: The use of the yield curve in forecasting economic recessions is well established in the literature. A new avenue of use for the yield curve has emerged in the form of using it to forecast bull and bear stock markets. This has the potential to change how investors manage portfolios. A dynamic market-timing strategy would allow investors to shift out of or in to stock markets based on the probability of bear stock market in the future. The relationship between the yield curve and the stock market is tested using an adapted probit model. This has proven positive with encouraging results for the US, India and Spain. This is tested for South Africa using the adapted probit model and the SA yield spread. Bear stock markets are identified on the JSE and forms part of the probit modelling process. Bear markets are identified using a six- and four-month criteria. As South Africa is a small, open and developing economy, the probit is also modelled using the US yield spread. The three probit models do not appear to track bear markets well. This is substantiated through the Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability. The results for the SA yield spread using both bear market criteria do not show market timing ability, however, the SA and US yield spread model does show potential market timing ability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Factors constraining and enabling the adoption of a disruptive technology by African small, micro, and medium enterprises for the Fourth Industrial Revolution: The case of mobile money
- Authors: Tarr, Dillon
- Date: 2022-10-14
- Subjects: Disruptive technologies , Mobile commerce , Industry 4.0 , Small business Africa, Sub-Saharan , Diffusion of innovations Africa, Sub-Saharan , Technological innovations Management
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/357709 , vital:64770
- Description: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) is set to disrupt existing economic and social structures through the use of cyber-physical systems that result from a fusion of the digital, biological, and physical spheres. The fifth and current long wave of innovation is going through such a digital revolution in the ongoing deployment period which is being driven by the generalpurpose technologies of Artificial Intelligence and the Internet of Things, among other cyberphysical systems. The impact of mobile money in the access of financial services has shown how disruptive incremental innovations in mobile and digital technologies can be. The transformational power of mobile money in financial access is due to its use as an accessible financial tool that utilizes mobile devices to send and/or receive money over great distances. With the 4IR looming, this thesis determines the factors that enable and constrain the adoption of a disruptive technology amongst Sub-Saharan African small, micro, and medium enterprises (SMMEs). Therefore, due to its impact on financial inclusion and the formalization of SMMEs, mobile money is used as an indicator for the adoption of 4IR disruptive digital technologies. The adoption of mobile money was evaluated using secondary data from a survey conducted by Research ICT Africa, which surveyed 4408 SMMEs in nine African countries. The Diffusion of Innovations (DOI) model and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model were used to identify the factors enabling and constraining the adoption of a disruptive technology, in this case mobile money. Factors included gender, vocational training, business skills training, tertiary education, services, performance expectancy, social media, location, and nine African countries (Kenya, Mozambique, Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Senegal). The factors were grouped into owner characteristics, firm attributes and country attributes. SMME owners with business skills (49%) showed the highest level of adoption in terms of owner characteristics, Kenyan SMMEs (21%) had the highest adoption between the countries surveyed, and social media (62%) showed the highest adoption in terms of firm attributes followed by the formal variable (47%). In general, only 29% of SMMEs surveyed adopted mobile money. The study found that women SMME owners were more likely to be affected by business formality when adopting a disruptive technology compared to male owned SMMEs. This is because informality often exacerbates other barriers/challenges women face such as lower access to finance, lower ability to exercise property, business, and labour rights, and lower visibility. The results also demonstrate that vocational training is more important than general tertiary education for the ii adoption of a disruptive technology such as mobile money. Furthermore, when using social media as a tool for business advice SMME owners were more likely to adopt the disruptive technology. The study suggests that to encourage African SMMEs to adequately adopt disruptive technologies of the 4IR, more women owned SMMEs need to enter the formal economy, and vocational training targeted at business skills must be promoted amongst all SMME owners. Eastern African SMMEs were found to be more likely to adopt mobile money compared to other African regions. The finding demonstrates the need for more African countries (particularly outside of the Eastern African region) to encourage innovation by addressing the four enablers of mobile connectivity (i.e. infrastructure, affordability, consumer readiness, and mobile services) which will in effect lead to economic growth and development. The study shows that to address country/regional differences, in addition to building the required infrastructure in terms of mobile internet connectivity, countries should increase the local relevancy of disruptive technologies between SMMEs. To achieve this the study suggests increasing mobile social media penetration rates. This is because when social media is used as a tool for business advice SMME owners are more likely to adopt a disruptive technology (as is the case with mobile money) due to the social influence of social media. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-10-14
- Authors: Tarr, Dillon
- Date: 2022-10-14
- Subjects: Disruptive technologies , Mobile commerce , Industry 4.0 , Small business Africa, Sub-Saharan , Diffusion of innovations Africa, Sub-Saharan , Technological innovations Management
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/357709 , vital:64770
- Description: The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) is set to disrupt existing economic and social structures through the use of cyber-physical systems that result from a fusion of the digital, biological, and physical spheres. The fifth and current long wave of innovation is going through such a digital revolution in the ongoing deployment period which is being driven by the generalpurpose technologies of Artificial Intelligence and the Internet of Things, among other cyberphysical systems. The impact of mobile money in the access of financial services has shown how disruptive incremental innovations in mobile and digital technologies can be. The transformational power of mobile money in financial access is due to its use as an accessible financial tool that utilizes mobile devices to send and/or receive money over great distances. With the 4IR looming, this thesis determines the factors that enable and constrain the adoption of a disruptive technology amongst Sub-Saharan African small, micro, and medium enterprises (SMMEs). Therefore, due to its impact on financial inclusion and the formalization of SMMEs, mobile money is used as an indicator for the adoption of 4IR disruptive digital technologies. The adoption of mobile money was evaluated using secondary data from a survey conducted by Research ICT Africa, which surveyed 4408 SMMEs in nine African countries. The Diffusion of Innovations (DOI) model and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model were used to identify the factors enabling and constraining the adoption of a disruptive technology, in this case mobile money. Factors included gender, vocational training, business skills training, tertiary education, services, performance expectancy, social media, location, and nine African countries (Kenya, Mozambique, Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Senegal). The factors were grouped into owner characteristics, firm attributes and country attributes. SMME owners with business skills (49%) showed the highest level of adoption in terms of owner characteristics, Kenyan SMMEs (21%) had the highest adoption between the countries surveyed, and social media (62%) showed the highest adoption in terms of firm attributes followed by the formal variable (47%). In general, only 29% of SMMEs surveyed adopted mobile money. The study found that women SMME owners were more likely to be affected by business formality when adopting a disruptive technology compared to male owned SMMEs. This is because informality often exacerbates other barriers/challenges women face such as lower access to finance, lower ability to exercise property, business, and labour rights, and lower visibility. The results also demonstrate that vocational training is more important than general tertiary education for the ii adoption of a disruptive technology such as mobile money. Furthermore, when using social media as a tool for business advice SMME owners were more likely to adopt the disruptive technology. The study suggests that to encourage African SMMEs to adequately adopt disruptive technologies of the 4IR, more women owned SMMEs need to enter the formal economy, and vocational training targeted at business skills must be promoted amongst all SMME owners. Eastern African SMMEs were found to be more likely to adopt mobile money compared to other African regions. The finding demonstrates the need for more African countries (particularly outside of the Eastern African region) to encourage innovation by addressing the four enablers of mobile connectivity (i.e. infrastructure, affordability, consumer readiness, and mobile services) which will in effect lead to economic growth and development. The study shows that to address country/regional differences, in addition to building the required infrastructure in terms of mobile internet connectivity, countries should increase the local relevancy of disruptive technologies between SMMEs. To achieve this the study suggests increasing mobile social media penetration rates. This is because when social media is used as a tool for business advice SMME owners are more likely to adopt a disruptive technology (as is the case with mobile money) due to the social influence of social media. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-10-14
Modelling stock return volatility dynamics in selected African markets
- Authors: King, Daniel Jonathan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Rate of return -- Africa Stocks -- Prices -- Africa Finance -- Developing countries -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1051 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006452
- Description: Stock return volatility has been shown to occasionally exhibit discrete structural shifts. These shifts are particularly evident in the transition from ‘normal’ to crisis periods, and tend to be more pronounced in developing markets. This study aims to establish whether accounting for structural changes in the conditional variance process, through the use of Markov-switching models, improves estimates and forecasts of stock return volatility over those of the more conventional single-state (G)ARCH models, within and across selected African markets for the period 2002-2012. In the univariate portion of the study, the performances of various Markov-switching models are tested against a single-state benchmark model through the use of in-sample goodness-of-fit and predictive ability measures. In the multivariate context, the single-state and Markov-switching models are comparatively assessed according to their usefulness in constructing optimal stock portfolios. It is found that, even after accounting for structural breaks in the conditional variance process, conventional GARCH effects remain important to capturing the heteroscedasticity evident in the data. However, those univariate models which include a GARCH term are shown to perform comparatively poorly when used for forecasting purposes. Additionally, in the multivariate study, the use of Markov-switching variance-covariance estimates improves risk-adjusted portfolio returns when compared to portfolios that are constructed using the more conventional single-state models. While there is evidence that the use of some Markov-switching models can result in better forecasts and higher risk-adjusted returns than those models which include GARCH effects, the inability of the simpler Markov-switching models to fully capture the heteroscedasticity in the data remains problematic.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: King, Daniel Jonathan
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Rate of return -- Africa Stocks -- Prices -- Africa Finance -- Developing countries -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1051 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006452
- Description: Stock return volatility has been shown to occasionally exhibit discrete structural shifts. These shifts are particularly evident in the transition from ‘normal’ to crisis periods, and tend to be more pronounced in developing markets. This study aims to establish whether accounting for structural changes in the conditional variance process, through the use of Markov-switching models, improves estimates and forecasts of stock return volatility over those of the more conventional single-state (G)ARCH models, within and across selected African markets for the period 2002-2012. In the univariate portion of the study, the performances of various Markov-switching models are tested against a single-state benchmark model through the use of in-sample goodness-of-fit and predictive ability measures. In the multivariate context, the single-state and Markov-switching models are comparatively assessed according to their usefulness in constructing optimal stock portfolios. It is found that, even after accounting for structural breaks in the conditional variance process, conventional GARCH effects remain important to capturing the heteroscedasticity evident in the data. However, those univariate models which include a GARCH term are shown to perform comparatively poorly when used for forecasting purposes. Additionally, in the multivariate study, the use of Markov-switching variance-covariance estimates improves risk-adjusted portfolio returns when compared to portfolios that are constructed using the more conventional single-state models. While there is evidence that the use of some Markov-switching models can result in better forecasts and higher risk-adjusted returns than those models which include GARCH effects, the inability of the simpler Markov-switching models to fully capture the heteroscedasticity in the data remains problematic.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The labour market drop-out rate : a new approach to estimating the returns to government investment in higher education : the case for marine science in South Africa
- Authors: Grootes, Pieter Brian
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Labor market Marine scientists -- South Africa Education -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Higher education and state -- South Africa Education -- Social aspects Human capital -- South Africa Education, Higher -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:950 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002684
- Description: The private and social returns to education literature share the same conclusion: that education is beneficial for both the individual and society. However, the theoretical underpinnings are flawed as the literature does not account for the main feature that leads to the acquisition of education: the private demand for education. An understanding of the factors that motivate the individual to invest in education would lead to a deeper insight as to why both private and social returns to education exist, and would provide a clearer framework on which to base the government funding of education. This thesis provides a first attempt at filling this gap by introducing a method of estimating the returns to government investment in education, which is labelled the ‘labour market drop-out rate approach’. The approach focuses on the social return to education, not in terms of graduate earnings, but in terms of the interaction of the graduate with the economy. The approach introduces a measure of expertise utilisation, based on the premise that there is no social return to an individual acquiring education if he or she does not utilise the acquired knowledge base on entering the labour market. The approach is tested using the labour market for marine scientists in South Africa as a case study. In this case the private demand for education is found to be heavily influenced by the provision of student bursaries from the National Research Foundation, with a resulting estimate of the social return to a degree in marine science being a mere 20% to 25%. Owing to this, a new approach to government investment in marine science is introduced, that of graduate contribution schemes. Of broader significance is the ease of application of this approach, it may be adopted to analyse any funding programme in which a government may decide to invest. As such, the labour market drop-out rate provides an extension to the returns to education literature through its theoretical dealings of the private demand for education, as well as a practical tool which government agencies can use to evaluate the efficacy of any government funding of education.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
- Authors: Grootes, Pieter Brian
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Labor market Marine scientists -- South Africa Education -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Higher education and state -- South Africa Education -- Social aspects Human capital -- South Africa Education, Higher -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:950 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002684
- Description: The private and social returns to education literature share the same conclusion: that education is beneficial for both the individual and society. However, the theoretical underpinnings are flawed as the literature does not account for the main feature that leads to the acquisition of education: the private demand for education. An understanding of the factors that motivate the individual to invest in education would lead to a deeper insight as to why both private and social returns to education exist, and would provide a clearer framework on which to base the government funding of education. This thesis provides a first attempt at filling this gap by introducing a method of estimating the returns to government investment in education, which is labelled the ‘labour market drop-out rate approach’. The approach focuses on the social return to education, not in terms of graduate earnings, but in terms of the interaction of the graduate with the economy. The approach introduces a measure of expertise utilisation, based on the premise that there is no social return to an individual acquiring education if he or she does not utilise the acquired knowledge base on entering the labour market. The approach is tested using the labour market for marine scientists in South Africa as a case study. In this case the private demand for education is found to be heavily influenced by the provision of student bursaries from the National Research Foundation, with a resulting estimate of the social return to a degree in marine science being a mere 20% to 25%. Owing to this, a new approach to government investment in marine science is introduced, that of graduate contribution schemes. Of broader significance is the ease of application of this approach, it may be adopted to analyse any funding programme in which a government may decide to invest. As such, the labour market drop-out rate provides an extension to the returns to education literature through its theoretical dealings of the private demand for education, as well as a practical tool which government agencies can use to evaluate the efficacy of any government funding of education.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
The impact of good news and bad news on South Africa’s sectoral stock return volatility: an asymmetric GARCH analysis
- Authors: Muzinda, Edmond Toreva
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/6425 , vital:21108
- Description: This study explores the impact of good news and bad news on South Africa’s sectoral stock return volatility using an asymmetric GARCH analysis. Understanding the different impact of news on stock return volatility in different economic sectors has important implications for investors’ risk management practices, portfolio allocation strategies and asset pricing. The study employs data of daily closing prices for nine sectors and three benchmark indices for the period 2nd January 1997 - 17th August 2016. The data was split into sub-samples of pre-, during and post-global financial crisis, as well as the overall sample period. The incorporation of sub-samples was to help explain the outcomes of the overall sample period. To capture the different impact of good news and bad news on stock return volatility for each sector, asymmetric GARCH models namely, TGARCH and EGARCH were employed. The findings from this study revealed that volatility asymmetry was present in all sectors and benchmark indices of South African equity market. Bad news had more impact on stock return volatility for all sectors except the Oil and Gas sector, than good news of the same magnitude. In the Oil and Gas sector, good news was found to have an amplified effect on return volatility compared with bad news of the same magnitude. High volatility persistence was also found to be present in the Consumer goods, Financials, Industrials, All-share index and Mid-cap index. High differential impact of good and bad news were found in the Industrials, Financials, Basic materials, Consumer goods and the All-share index. Since the main objective of this study was to provide explanations of volatility asymmetry found in the South African sectors, the following were proposed as possible explanations of the findings. Within sectors, volatility asymmetry was explained by financial leverage, the role of the media, loss-averse investors and the behaviour of traders (overconfidence and extrapolation bias). Volatility asymmetry across sectors was explained by information flow, the uneven distribution of information by the media, investor sentiments, investor expectations and trading volumes. Overall, the results indicate that the stock return volatility of individual sectors of the South African equity market is driven mainly by bad news (except for Oil and Gas) and that leverage effects exist in all the sectors and in the benchmark indices.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Muzinda, Edmond Toreva
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/6425 , vital:21108
- Description: This study explores the impact of good news and bad news on South Africa’s sectoral stock return volatility using an asymmetric GARCH analysis. Understanding the different impact of news on stock return volatility in different economic sectors has important implications for investors’ risk management practices, portfolio allocation strategies and asset pricing. The study employs data of daily closing prices for nine sectors and three benchmark indices for the period 2nd January 1997 - 17th August 2016. The data was split into sub-samples of pre-, during and post-global financial crisis, as well as the overall sample period. The incorporation of sub-samples was to help explain the outcomes of the overall sample period. To capture the different impact of good news and bad news on stock return volatility for each sector, asymmetric GARCH models namely, TGARCH and EGARCH were employed. The findings from this study revealed that volatility asymmetry was present in all sectors and benchmark indices of South African equity market. Bad news had more impact on stock return volatility for all sectors except the Oil and Gas sector, than good news of the same magnitude. In the Oil and Gas sector, good news was found to have an amplified effect on return volatility compared with bad news of the same magnitude. High volatility persistence was also found to be present in the Consumer goods, Financials, Industrials, All-share index and Mid-cap index. High differential impact of good and bad news were found in the Industrials, Financials, Basic materials, Consumer goods and the All-share index. Since the main objective of this study was to provide explanations of volatility asymmetry found in the South African sectors, the following were proposed as possible explanations of the findings. Within sectors, volatility asymmetry was explained by financial leverage, the role of the media, loss-averse investors and the behaviour of traders (overconfidence and extrapolation bias). Volatility asymmetry across sectors was explained by information flow, the uneven distribution of information by the media, investor sentiments, investor expectations and trading volumes. Overall, the results indicate that the stock return volatility of individual sectors of the South African equity market is driven mainly by bad news (except for Oil and Gas) and that leverage effects exist in all the sectors and in the benchmark indices.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
Inflation threshold and nonlinearity: implications for inflation targeting in South Africa
- Authors: Morar, Derwina
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Inflation targeting -- South Africa Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- South Africa Monetary policy -- South Africa Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:984 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002718
- Description: Following many other central banks around the world, the South African Reserve Bank has adopted inflation targeting as its monetary policy framework. The aim of this is to achieve low levels of inflation in order to attain price stability thereby promoting growth. In South Africa, the chosen band to target is 3%–6%. This has been criticised by many trade unions who are calling for the abandonment of inflation targeting. Despite targeting 3%–6%, it is not known whether this is the optimal inflation range for South Africa. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the inflation threshold level for South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1983 to 2010. The first section determines whether or not there is a long-run relationship between inflation and growth using the Johansen cointegration method. Exogeneity tests determine the causality between these variables. Vector error correction models are estimated if cointegration is found. The second part determines the threshold level of inflation using the method of conditional least squares. The inflation level that maximises the R-squared value and minimises the residual sum of squares gives an indication of the threshold level. The third part of the study determines whether or not inflation volatility has a significant impact on growth. The first part established that there is long-run comovement between inflation and growth.The causality is bidirectional with both variables being endogenous.Findings regarding the threshold level show that the current inflation targeting band of 3%–6% may be extended up to 9.5%. In addition, the range of inflation from 5.5% to 6.5% promotes economic growth in South Africa. Finally, the evidence suggests that inflation volatility does not have a significant impact on economic growth and the focus of policy should be directed towards the level of inflation as has been the case.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Morar, Derwina
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Inflation targeting -- South Africa Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- South Africa Monetary policy -- South Africa Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:984 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002718
- Description: Following many other central banks around the world, the South African Reserve Bank has adopted inflation targeting as its monetary policy framework. The aim of this is to achieve low levels of inflation in order to attain price stability thereby promoting growth. In South Africa, the chosen band to target is 3%–6%. This has been criticised by many trade unions who are calling for the abandonment of inflation targeting. Despite targeting 3%–6%, it is not known whether this is the optimal inflation range for South Africa. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the inflation threshold level for South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1983 to 2010. The first section determines whether or not there is a long-run relationship between inflation and growth using the Johansen cointegration method. Exogeneity tests determine the causality between these variables. Vector error correction models are estimated if cointegration is found. The second part determines the threshold level of inflation using the method of conditional least squares. The inflation level that maximises the R-squared value and minimises the residual sum of squares gives an indication of the threshold level. The third part of the study determines whether or not inflation volatility has a significant impact on growth. The first part established that there is long-run comovement between inflation and growth.The causality is bidirectional with both variables being endogenous.Findings regarding the threshold level show that the current inflation targeting band of 3%–6% may be extended up to 9.5%. In addition, the range of inflation from 5.5% to 6.5% promotes economic growth in South Africa. Finally, the evidence suggests that inflation volatility does not have a significant impact on economic growth and the focus of policy should be directed towards the level of inflation as has been the case.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Incentive effects: assessing effort and heterogeneity in professional tennis
- Authors: Chadwick, Byron James Rhett
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Professional sports -- Economic aspects , Tennis players -- Wages , Tennis -- Tournaments , Achievement motivation , Incentive awards
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/69467 , vital:29541
- Description: This study explores the impact incentive effects have on the level of effort exerted by professional men and women tennis players. Understanding what impact incentives have on tennis players can allow for greater understanding of the impact incentives have in the workplace and how employees react to different incentive schemes. The study makes use of data from both the ATP and WTA tour of every tournament played during the 2016 season. This includes player statistics, tournament statistics and in-game statistics from the quarter-finals, semi-finals and finals of each tournament in an attempt to account for initial seeding effects. This provides a total of 440 ATP matches and 389 WTA matches for an overall sample size of 829 professional tennis matches. The findings from this study illustrate in the last three rounds of all the tournaments played, for both male and females, money is not considered to be a key motivator for players. The ATP and WTA results suggest that competitors do not alter their effort levels depending on the level of the tournament. This illustrates that players exert similar effort levels regardless of the amount of money or ranking points available. The outcome of the findings supports that of the capability effect of heterogeneity on players’ performance. This means that the outcome of a match is linked more to the abilities of the competitors involved as opposed to the incentives available. Thus, players will adjust their effort levels according to their opponent and not because there are more money or ranking points available. This suggests that both the ATP and WTA should aim to reduce the differences in abilities amongst the players in an attempt to raise the attractiveness of the sport. Overall, the findings from this study illustrate that the capability effect outweighs that of the incentive effect.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Chadwick, Byron James Rhett
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Professional sports -- Economic aspects , Tennis players -- Wages , Tennis -- Tournaments , Achievement motivation , Incentive awards
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/69467 , vital:29541
- Description: This study explores the impact incentive effects have on the level of effort exerted by professional men and women tennis players. Understanding what impact incentives have on tennis players can allow for greater understanding of the impact incentives have in the workplace and how employees react to different incentive schemes. The study makes use of data from both the ATP and WTA tour of every tournament played during the 2016 season. This includes player statistics, tournament statistics and in-game statistics from the quarter-finals, semi-finals and finals of each tournament in an attempt to account for initial seeding effects. This provides a total of 440 ATP matches and 389 WTA matches for an overall sample size of 829 professional tennis matches. The findings from this study illustrate in the last three rounds of all the tournaments played, for both male and females, money is not considered to be a key motivator for players. The ATP and WTA results suggest that competitors do not alter their effort levels depending on the level of the tournament. This illustrates that players exert similar effort levels regardless of the amount of money or ranking points available. The outcome of the findings supports that of the capability effect of heterogeneity on players’ performance. This means that the outcome of a match is linked more to the abilities of the competitors involved as opposed to the incentives available. Thus, players will adjust their effort levels according to their opponent and not because there are more money or ranking points available. This suggests that both the ATP and WTA should aim to reduce the differences in abilities amongst the players in an attempt to raise the attractiveness of the sport. Overall, the findings from this study illustrate that the capability effect outweighs that of the incentive effect.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Financial integration in East Africa: evidence from interest rate pass-through analysis
- Authors: Bholla, Zohaib Salim
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: East African Community -- Economic integration East African Community -- Economic conditions -- 21st century Interest rates -- Africa, East Interest rates -- Econometric models -- Africa, East Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Africa, East Banks and banking -- Africa, East
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1044 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006131
- Description: The successful launch of the European Monetary Union (EMU) raised an already ever growing interest in the economics of monetary integration and the formation of monetary unions around the world. Following the EMU experience, countries have considered forming a monetary union amongst themselves. The East African Community (EAC), comprising the three original member countries Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda and now including Burundi and Rwanda, is an example of such a group of countries that seek to form a monetary union. This study aims to identify the current level of financial integration amongst the East African countries. In order to do so the study examines whether the pass-through of monetary policy in the five countries has become similar over time. This is to provide an indication of the extent to which the nominal convergence criteria amongst the member countries have been met. The results of the study provide an indication of whether the formation of a monetary union in East Africa is possible. The empirical analysis used in this study included stationarity tests, four tests of co integration and an asymmetric error correction model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in the five countries has become more similar over the ten year sample period from 1999 to 2008. The analysis uses three interest rates and 6-year rolling windows to identify the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within the EAC, and consequently whether the formation of a monetary union is possible. The results suggest that the magnitude of the convergence amongst the countries remain low and there are significant rigidities in the deposit and lending rates over time, however the passthrough has improved with respect to the lending rate but not the deposit rate. The overall conclusion of the study suggests that an EAC wide monetary union is currently not possible based on the evidence provided from the pass-through analysis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Bholla, Zohaib Salim
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: East African Community -- Economic integration East African Community -- Economic conditions -- 21st century Interest rates -- Africa, East Interest rates -- Econometric models -- Africa, East Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Africa, East Banks and banking -- Africa, East
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1044 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006131
- Description: The successful launch of the European Monetary Union (EMU) raised an already ever growing interest in the economics of monetary integration and the formation of monetary unions around the world. Following the EMU experience, countries have considered forming a monetary union amongst themselves. The East African Community (EAC), comprising the three original member countries Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda and now including Burundi and Rwanda, is an example of such a group of countries that seek to form a monetary union. This study aims to identify the current level of financial integration amongst the East African countries. In order to do so the study examines whether the pass-through of monetary policy in the five countries has become similar over time. This is to provide an indication of the extent to which the nominal convergence criteria amongst the member countries have been met. The results of the study provide an indication of whether the formation of a monetary union in East Africa is possible. The empirical analysis used in this study included stationarity tests, four tests of co integration and an asymmetric error correction model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in the five countries has become more similar over the ten year sample period from 1999 to 2008. The analysis uses three interest rates and 6-year rolling windows to identify the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within the EAC, and consequently whether the formation of a monetary union is possible. The results suggest that the magnitude of the convergence amongst the countries remain low and there are significant rigidities in the deposit and lending rates over time, however the passthrough has improved with respect to the lending rate but not the deposit rate. The overall conclusion of the study suggests that an EAC wide monetary union is currently not possible based on the evidence provided from the pass-through analysis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Optimistic science: the effectiveness of economic methodology in achieving objectivity
- Authors: Holl, Ryan
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economics -- Methodology , Social epistemology , Knowledge, Theory of -- Science , Objectivity -- Science , Science -- Methodology , Optimism
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1105 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013393
- Description: This thesis examines the extent to which optimism has a bearing on objectivity in scientific inquiry. It is not, however, a psychological level examination into objectivity. Rather, the discussion focuses on collective attitudes, whether in the form of science or a more general public opinion. In essence, sources of optimism at the fundamental level of scientific inquiry are articulated with a careful attempt to differentiate between attitudes about the subject (methodology) and the object of study. The antithetical thread of optimism versus pessimism is teased out with the use of a joint case study of liberalism and Stalinism. The idea of antithesis, however, is contrasted by the fact that, although mirror image ideologies, these collective attitudes share a common faith in progress (albeit through different social mechanisms). This faith in progress provides the basis for the crux of the thesis as it moves to discuss scientific methodology. There is general agreement on what good science should look like and the possibility of progressive science can be articulated. However, it is also possible to highlight the conditions for degenerative science and to further link this to a degenerative social totality in which democracy and social progress are undermined. Economics is used as a case study and it is argued that dogmatic notions on progress have proved to be a major stumbling block to objectivity in the discipline. Furthermore, the implications on the real world are serious.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Holl, Ryan
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economics -- Methodology , Social epistemology , Knowledge, Theory of -- Science , Objectivity -- Science , Science -- Methodology , Optimism
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1105 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013393
- Description: This thesis examines the extent to which optimism has a bearing on objectivity in scientific inquiry. It is not, however, a psychological level examination into objectivity. Rather, the discussion focuses on collective attitudes, whether in the form of science or a more general public opinion. In essence, sources of optimism at the fundamental level of scientific inquiry are articulated with a careful attempt to differentiate between attitudes about the subject (methodology) and the object of study. The antithetical thread of optimism versus pessimism is teased out with the use of a joint case study of liberalism and Stalinism. The idea of antithesis, however, is contrasted by the fact that, although mirror image ideologies, these collective attitudes share a common faith in progress (albeit through different social mechanisms). This faith in progress provides the basis for the crux of the thesis as it moves to discuss scientific methodology. There is general agreement on what good science should look like and the possibility of progressive science can be articulated. However, it is also possible to highlight the conditions for degenerative science and to further link this to a degenerative social totality in which democracy and social progress are undermined. Economics is used as a case study and it is argued that dogmatic notions on progress have proved to be a major stumbling block to objectivity in the discipline. Furthermore, the implications on the real world are serious.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of macroeconomic and financial factors on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa
- Authors: Kwangware, Debra
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1042 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005641 , Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study exammes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa using monthly data for the period January 1996 to June 2008. Orthogonalised and non-orthogonalised house price returns and real estate returns are utilised as proxies for the housing property market in separate models. Three main issues were empirically analysed in relation to the linkage between selected variables and the housing property market. The first aspect examined the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial factors and property returns. Secondly, the study examined the influence that a unit shock to each variable has on property returns over a period of time. The third aspect focused on determining the proportion of property returns variation that results from changes in the macroeconomic and financial variables. VAR modelling was thus adopted to empirically analyse these three aspects. The results reveal that house price returns are influenced by most of the macroeconomic and financial variables used in this study. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate, interest rate spread and manufacturing production positively impact on house price returns while the domestic interest rate, the dividend yield and expected inflation have a negative effect. Furthermore, manufacturing production has a lagged effect on house price returns while the real effective exchange rate and domestic interest rate have a contemporaneous effect. Real estate returns are not influenced by most of the variables except for the domestic interest rate and dividend yield which have a negative effect.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Kwangware, Debra
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1042 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005641 , Microeconomics , Housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Prices -- South Africa , Real property -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study exammes the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on the performance of the housing property market in South Africa using monthly data for the period January 1996 to June 2008. Orthogonalised and non-orthogonalised house price returns and real estate returns are utilised as proxies for the housing property market in separate models. Three main issues were empirically analysed in relation to the linkage between selected variables and the housing property market. The first aspect examined the relationship between selected macroeconomic and financial factors and property returns. Secondly, the study examined the influence that a unit shock to each variable has on property returns over a period of time. The third aspect focused on determining the proportion of property returns variation that results from changes in the macroeconomic and financial variables. VAR modelling was thus adopted to empirically analyse these three aspects. The results reveal that house price returns are influenced by most of the macroeconomic and financial variables used in this study. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate, interest rate spread and manufacturing production positively impact on house price returns while the domestic interest rate, the dividend yield and expected inflation have a negative effect. Furthermore, manufacturing production has a lagged effect on house price returns while the real effective exchange rate and domestic interest rate have a contemporaneous effect. Real estate returns are not influenced by most of the variables except for the domestic interest rate and dividend yield which have a negative effect.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Sources of change in the money stock
- Smith, Robert Ayreton Bailey
- Authors: Smith, Robert Ayreton Bailey
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Money supply -- South Africa , Money -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1118 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017543
- Description: This research provides an historical, theoretical and practical appraisal of exogenous and endogenous money and money creation, with South Africa as the focus of the practical investigation. Monetary theory of recent decades can be categorised as belonging to one of two distinct paradigms: mainstream (neoclassical) or post Keynesian. The mainstream (orthodox) view presents a Euclidian or Cartesian, ergodic, deductive, and axiomatic theoretical interpretation of the world. This is perpetuated through the continued, and inaccurate, depiction in academia of exogenous money creation, the money multiplier concept, asset transformation by banks, imposed alterations to the money stock by central banks and long-run closed system equilibrium models (and associated homogeneity, and long term behavioural assumptions). In the real world, economic agents, structures, institutions and their interrelations are perpetually evolving. The post Keynesian paradigm provides the theoretical framework within which to understand such a world. Unfortunately the necessity for a multiplicity of methods and methodology makes it a paradigm that is currently prohibitively complex, preventing simple exposition. Money creation should, both historically, and according to the analysis conducted, be defined according to the actual source of change in the money stock, that is, credit extension. In a nonergodic world, changes in the stock of money take on a causal role with regard the initiation of productive processes, and thus influence future economic conditions. The simple, although powerful, technique of balance sheet analysis conducted herein provides a detailed method of identification of causal changes in money stock. Within the context of the institutional and structural environment, it clearly demonstrates the residual nature of money m modern economies. This research serves to emphasise the importance of monetary matters for economic management, as well as the important difference between the money creation process and the residual deposit securities. It serves also to discourage the perpetuation of fallacies of money creation, and capabilities of monetary authorities. In South Africa, as in most countries, the central bank can influence the conditions under which borrowers and banks mutually create money, but do not themselves create or distribute money beyond the facilitation of credit extension by banks
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Smith, Robert Ayreton Bailey
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Money supply -- South Africa , Money -- South Africa , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1118 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017543
- Description: This research provides an historical, theoretical and practical appraisal of exogenous and endogenous money and money creation, with South Africa as the focus of the practical investigation. Monetary theory of recent decades can be categorised as belonging to one of two distinct paradigms: mainstream (neoclassical) or post Keynesian. The mainstream (orthodox) view presents a Euclidian or Cartesian, ergodic, deductive, and axiomatic theoretical interpretation of the world. This is perpetuated through the continued, and inaccurate, depiction in academia of exogenous money creation, the money multiplier concept, asset transformation by banks, imposed alterations to the money stock by central banks and long-run closed system equilibrium models (and associated homogeneity, and long term behavioural assumptions). In the real world, economic agents, structures, institutions and their interrelations are perpetually evolving. The post Keynesian paradigm provides the theoretical framework within which to understand such a world. Unfortunately the necessity for a multiplicity of methods and methodology makes it a paradigm that is currently prohibitively complex, preventing simple exposition. Money creation should, both historically, and according to the analysis conducted, be defined according to the actual source of change in the money stock, that is, credit extension. In a nonergodic world, changes in the stock of money take on a causal role with regard the initiation of productive processes, and thus influence future economic conditions. The simple, although powerful, technique of balance sheet analysis conducted herein provides a detailed method of identification of causal changes in money stock. Within the context of the institutional and structural environment, it clearly demonstrates the residual nature of money m modern economies. This research serves to emphasise the importance of monetary matters for economic management, as well as the important difference between the money creation process and the residual deposit securities. It serves also to discourage the perpetuation of fallacies of money creation, and capabilities of monetary authorities. In South Africa, as in most countries, the central bank can influence the conditions under which borrowers and banks mutually create money, but do not themselves create or distribute money beyond the facilitation of credit extension by banks
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Farm wages and working conditions in the Albany District, 1957-2008
- Authors: Roberts, Tamaryn Jean
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Agricultural laborers -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Agricultural wages -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Agricultural laborers -- Legal status, laws, etc. -- South Africa , Agricultural laborers -- Protection -- South Africa , Agricultural laws and legislation -- South Africa , Labour laws and legislation -- South Africa , Labour economics -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:978 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002712
- Description: Agriculture is a major employer of labour in South Africa with about 8.8% of the total labour force directly involved in agricultural production (StatsSA, 2007a). Farm wages and working conditions in the Albany district were researched in 1957 by Roberts (1958) and 1977 by Antrobus (1984). Research in 2008, involving face-to-face interviews of a sample survey of 40 Albany farmers, was undertaken to update the situation facing farm labourers and allowed for comparisons with the work previously done. Farm workers were governed by common law until 1994 when the government intervened with legislation. The introduction of the Basic Conditions of Employment Act (1997) for farm workers, amended in 2002 to include minimum wage legislation, and the Extension of Security of Tenure Act (ESTA) of 1997 impacted the supply and demand of farm workers. Other impacts have been due to the Albany district experiencing an increase in the establishment of Private Game Reserves and game-tourism with a simultaneous decline in conventional farming. It was concluded from the survey conducted that minimum wage legislation decreased the demand for regular and increased the demand for casual labour, which incur lower costs including transaction costs, than their regular counterparts. The ESTA of 1997 contributed to a decreased number of farm residents, which had spin-off affects on the supply of labour. Farmers experienced a simultaneous price-cost squeeze, which furthermore decreased the demand for labour. Studying the working and living conditions showed that farm workers had limited access to educational and recreational facilities which negatively impacted the supply of labour.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
- Authors: Roberts, Tamaryn Jean
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Agricultural laborers -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Agricultural wages -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Agricultural laborers -- Legal status, laws, etc. -- South Africa , Agricultural laborers -- Protection -- South Africa , Agricultural laws and legislation -- South Africa , Labour laws and legislation -- South Africa , Labour economics -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:978 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002712
- Description: Agriculture is a major employer of labour in South Africa with about 8.8% of the total labour force directly involved in agricultural production (StatsSA, 2007a). Farm wages and working conditions in the Albany district were researched in 1957 by Roberts (1958) and 1977 by Antrobus (1984). Research in 2008, involving face-to-face interviews of a sample survey of 40 Albany farmers, was undertaken to update the situation facing farm labourers and allowed for comparisons with the work previously done. Farm workers were governed by common law until 1994 when the government intervened with legislation. The introduction of the Basic Conditions of Employment Act (1997) for farm workers, amended in 2002 to include minimum wage legislation, and the Extension of Security of Tenure Act (ESTA) of 1997 impacted the supply and demand of farm workers. Other impacts have been due to the Albany district experiencing an increase in the establishment of Private Game Reserves and game-tourism with a simultaneous decline in conventional farming. It was concluded from the survey conducted that minimum wage legislation decreased the demand for regular and increased the demand for casual labour, which incur lower costs including transaction costs, than their regular counterparts. The ESTA of 1997 contributed to a decreased number of farm residents, which had spin-off affects on the supply of labour. Farmers experienced a simultaneous price-cost squeeze, which furthermore decreased the demand for labour. Studying the working and living conditions showed that farm workers had limited access to educational and recreational facilities which negatively impacted the supply of labour.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
An analysis of the impact of financialization on commodity markets
- Authors: Ndawona, Takudzwa Maitaishe
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/7113 , vital:21218
- Description: An unprecedented increase in real commodity prices from 2002-2011 fuelled an intense debate as to the causes of the steep rise in prices and its possible implications for producers and consumers. On the one hand, the prolonged and dramatic rise in almost all commodity prices is attributed to growing demand from emerging market economies, supply shocks such as adverse weather conditions, export bans as well as other macroeconomic factors. Collectively these are known as the fundamental (demand and supply) factors. On the other hand, there is a growing body of evidence that suggests these fundamental factors alone are not sufficient enough to explain recent commodity price developments. It is noted that alongside changes in the fundamental factors, there was a major shift in trading activities on commodity derivative markets related to the increasing presence of financial investors, institutional investors and hedge funds. This had important effects, it is argued, on the microstructure of these markets and on price dynamics in a process termed “fmancialization”. Most of the empirical literature covers the period of rising commodity prices from 20022011. This study seeks to add to the existing literature by examining, in addition, the impact of financialization when commodity prices were falling from 2011-2015. Whereas the literature focuses mainly on the rise of agricultural commodity prices, the focus of this study is on metals, oil and bulk commodities (coal and iron ore). Two techniques are employed, namely the calculation of rolling correlations for futures and spot returns. Granger causality tests are then performed to examine the relationships between futures and spot prices. Rolling return correlations are calculated for i) different exchange- traded commodities and ii) exchange-traded commodities and bulk commodities not traded on exchanges. This is done to establish whether the increased correlations between different commodities found in the literature still hold now that commodity prices across all categories are falling. Granger causality tests are used in order to establish the link between the futures prices and spot prices both during the upswing period (2002-2011) and downswing period (2011-2015). It is found that rapidly growing indexed-based investment in commodity markets (financialization) during the upswing period is concurrent with increasingly correlated returns on the prices of unrelated commodities in both the futures and spot markets. These correlations decline during the period of falling commodity prices (2011-2015). This was a period in which the total amount of commodity assets under management fell sharply. This supports the a priori expectation that if the increased correlations of previously seemingly correlated and unrelated commodities during the upswing had been driven by financialization, the correlation would decline in the downturn. Granger causality results reveal statistically significant evidence of futures prices (returns) driving spot prices (returns) during the financialization period. However, post-financialization there is a shift to more bidirectional relationships. The study therefore concludes that, in addition to changing fundamental and macroeconomic factors, the financialization of commodity markets further drove the excessive and volatile price levels in commodity markets from 2002 to 2011.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Ndawona, Takudzwa Maitaishe
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/7113 , vital:21218
- Description: An unprecedented increase in real commodity prices from 2002-2011 fuelled an intense debate as to the causes of the steep rise in prices and its possible implications for producers and consumers. On the one hand, the prolonged and dramatic rise in almost all commodity prices is attributed to growing demand from emerging market economies, supply shocks such as adverse weather conditions, export bans as well as other macroeconomic factors. Collectively these are known as the fundamental (demand and supply) factors. On the other hand, there is a growing body of evidence that suggests these fundamental factors alone are not sufficient enough to explain recent commodity price developments. It is noted that alongside changes in the fundamental factors, there was a major shift in trading activities on commodity derivative markets related to the increasing presence of financial investors, institutional investors and hedge funds. This had important effects, it is argued, on the microstructure of these markets and on price dynamics in a process termed “fmancialization”. Most of the empirical literature covers the period of rising commodity prices from 20022011. This study seeks to add to the existing literature by examining, in addition, the impact of financialization when commodity prices were falling from 2011-2015. Whereas the literature focuses mainly on the rise of agricultural commodity prices, the focus of this study is on metals, oil and bulk commodities (coal and iron ore). Two techniques are employed, namely the calculation of rolling correlations for futures and spot returns. Granger causality tests are then performed to examine the relationships between futures and spot prices. Rolling return correlations are calculated for i) different exchange- traded commodities and ii) exchange-traded commodities and bulk commodities not traded on exchanges. This is done to establish whether the increased correlations between different commodities found in the literature still hold now that commodity prices across all categories are falling. Granger causality tests are used in order to establish the link between the futures prices and spot prices both during the upswing period (2002-2011) and downswing period (2011-2015). It is found that rapidly growing indexed-based investment in commodity markets (financialization) during the upswing period is concurrent with increasingly correlated returns on the prices of unrelated commodities in both the futures and spot markets. These correlations decline during the period of falling commodity prices (2011-2015). This was a period in which the total amount of commodity assets under management fell sharply. This supports the a priori expectation that if the increased correlations of previously seemingly correlated and unrelated commodities during the upswing had been driven by financialization, the correlation would decline in the downturn. Granger causality results reveal statistically significant evidence of futures prices (returns) driving spot prices (returns) during the financialization period. However, post-financialization there is a shift to more bidirectional relationships. The study therefore concludes that, in addition to changing fundamental and macroeconomic factors, the financialization of commodity markets further drove the excessive and volatile price levels in commodity markets from 2002 to 2011.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
A water footprint assessment of primary citrus production in the Lower Sundays River Valley Citrus Farms, Eastern Cape, South Africa
- Authors: Munro, Samantha Alanna
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Water efficiency -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Evaluation , Water consumption -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Citrus -- Water requirements -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:1120 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017558
- Description: With the current implementation of the South African National Water Act (NWA) underway, comprehensive tools to assist in the efficient, fair and sustainable management of water resources are needed. Water footprints (WFs) are increasingly being recognised as a meaningful way to represent human appropriation of water resources and provide a framework for assessing the sustainability of water use. The study calculated blue, green and grey WFs for the lower Sundays River Valley (LSRV) citrus sector across dry, humid and long-term average climates for a number of cultivars. The sustainability of both the LSRV and the production process of citrus were examined through the adoption of a number of environmental, social and economic indicators. The study revealed that there was no water scarcity in the area because of an inter-basin transfer and that water pollution levels attributed to citrus production required a more comprehensive indicator than the grey WF. Results showed that navels, despite being the dominant cultivar, had the highest WF and the lowest water productivity and technical efficiency. It also provided lower benefits of income and employment in terms of water use in comparison to other cultivars. Conversely, cultivars such as lemons, which required a greater amount of water and fertiliser, were the most productive cultivar with the lowest blue, green and grey WF. The study demonstrated the complexity of decisions regarding water management and the need to assess accurately the environmental, social and economic implications of strategies to increase efficiency of water. The importance of incorporating local data and verifying WFs was also illustrated. The analysis highlighted that WF assessments could be useful for the South African government and agricultural sectors to assist in future water management decisions and promote increased collaboration between stakeholders. The study found that the adoption of local benchmarks could be useful in aiding the promotion of more efficient water use and could factor in sensitive economic and social attributes. WFs in conjunction with other economic and social indicators could also be used to evaluate the sustainability of current and future allocations pertaining to the implementation of the NWA. It was however noted that this requires vast amounts of accurate data.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Munro, Samantha Alanna
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Water efficiency -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape -- Evaluation , Water consumption -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Citrus -- Water requirements -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:1120 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017558
- Description: With the current implementation of the South African National Water Act (NWA) underway, comprehensive tools to assist in the efficient, fair and sustainable management of water resources are needed. Water footprints (WFs) are increasingly being recognised as a meaningful way to represent human appropriation of water resources and provide a framework for assessing the sustainability of water use. The study calculated blue, green and grey WFs for the lower Sundays River Valley (LSRV) citrus sector across dry, humid and long-term average climates for a number of cultivars. The sustainability of both the LSRV and the production process of citrus were examined through the adoption of a number of environmental, social and economic indicators. The study revealed that there was no water scarcity in the area because of an inter-basin transfer and that water pollution levels attributed to citrus production required a more comprehensive indicator than the grey WF. Results showed that navels, despite being the dominant cultivar, had the highest WF and the lowest water productivity and technical efficiency. It also provided lower benefits of income and employment in terms of water use in comparison to other cultivars. Conversely, cultivars such as lemons, which required a greater amount of water and fertiliser, were the most productive cultivar with the lowest blue, green and grey WF. The study demonstrated the complexity of decisions regarding water management and the need to assess accurately the environmental, social and economic implications of strategies to increase efficiency of water. The importance of incorporating local data and verifying WFs was also illustrated. The analysis highlighted that WF assessments could be useful for the South African government and agricultural sectors to assist in future water management decisions and promote increased collaboration between stakeholders. The study found that the adoption of local benchmarks could be useful in aiding the promotion of more efficient water use and could factor in sensitive economic and social attributes. WFs in conjunction with other economic and social indicators could also be used to evaluate the sustainability of current and future allocations pertaining to the implementation of the NWA. It was however noted that this requires vast amounts of accurate data.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Sport consumption patterns in the Eastern Cape: cricket spectators as sporting univores or omnivores
- Authors: Brock, Kelcey
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Cricket -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Cricket -- Social aspects , Consumption (Economics) , Consumer behavior
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1115 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017534
- Description: Since its inception, consumption behaviour theory has developed to account for the important social aspect that underpins or at least to some extent can be used to explain consumption behaviour. Modern consumption behaviour theory is anthropocentric in nature, with people and societal influence at the forefront of the theory. To date, empirical studies on consumption behaviour of cultural activities (for example, music and arts), entertainment and sport have used Bourdieu’s (1984) omnivore/univore theory to suggest that consumption of leisure activities is bound up in social ties. To date, no such investigation has been conducted in the context of sport in South Africa. The aim of the study therefore is to investigate whether South African cricket spectators are sporting omnivores or univores, thus, essentially investigating whether sports consumption behaviour in South Africa is bound up in social ties. A number of positive economic and social ramifications could result from gaining a holistic understanding of sports consumption behaviour in South Africa. Given these ramifications, the secondary goal of the research is to identify motives for consumers making specific sport consumption decisions, and determining whether certain characteristics can be attributed to these consumption decisions. Recommendations based on the findings of the research could help various stakeholders understand sports consumption patterns in South Africa, which could in turn lead to the realization of positive economic and social benefits. The study made use of a questionnaire, administered at four different limited overs cricket matches in the 2012/13 cricket season, to obtain a range of responses reflecting specific types of consumption behaviour as well as motives for consumption decisions of cricket spectators in the Eastern Cape. Using individual binary probit models and post estimation F-tests, the results indicate that consumption behaviour of sport within South Africa predominantly differs on the grounds of education and race. This suggests that there are aspects of social connotations underpinning sports consumption behaviour within South Africa
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Sport consumption patterns in the Eastern Cape: cricket spectators as sporting univores or omnivores
- Authors: Brock, Kelcey
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Cricket -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Cricket -- Social aspects , Consumption (Economics) , Consumer behavior
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1115 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017534
- Description: Since its inception, consumption behaviour theory has developed to account for the important social aspect that underpins or at least to some extent can be used to explain consumption behaviour. Modern consumption behaviour theory is anthropocentric in nature, with people and societal influence at the forefront of the theory. To date, empirical studies on consumption behaviour of cultural activities (for example, music and arts), entertainment and sport have used Bourdieu’s (1984) omnivore/univore theory to suggest that consumption of leisure activities is bound up in social ties. To date, no such investigation has been conducted in the context of sport in South Africa. The aim of the study therefore is to investigate whether South African cricket spectators are sporting omnivores or univores, thus, essentially investigating whether sports consumption behaviour in South Africa is bound up in social ties. A number of positive economic and social ramifications could result from gaining a holistic understanding of sports consumption behaviour in South Africa. Given these ramifications, the secondary goal of the research is to identify motives for consumers making specific sport consumption decisions, and determining whether certain characteristics can be attributed to these consumption decisions. Recommendations based on the findings of the research could help various stakeholders understand sports consumption patterns in South Africa, which could in turn lead to the realization of positive economic and social benefits. The study made use of a questionnaire, administered at four different limited overs cricket matches in the 2012/13 cricket season, to obtain a range of responses reflecting specific types of consumption behaviour as well as motives for consumption decisions of cricket spectators in the Eastern Cape. Using individual binary probit models and post estimation F-tests, the results indicate that consumption behaviour of sport within South Africa predominantly differs on the grounds of education and race. This suggests that there are aspects of social connotations underpinning sports consumption behaviour within South Africa
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Kenya
- Authors: Mnjama, Gladys Susan
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Kenya -- Economic conditions , Kenya -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models , Foreign exchange rates -- Kenya , Stocks -- Prices -- Kenya , Banks and banking -- Kenya , Cointegration , Econometrics , Inflation (Finance) -- Kenya
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:975 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002709 , Kenya -- Economic conditions , Kenya -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models , Foreign exchange rates -- Kenya , Stocks -- Prices -- Kenya , Banks and banking -- Kenya , Cointegration , Econometrics , Inflation (Finance) -- Kenya
- Description: In 1993, Kenya liberalised its trade policy and allowed the Kenyan Shillings to freely float. This openness has left Kenya's domestic prices vulnerable to the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. One of the objectives of the Central Bank of Kenya is to maintain inflation levels at sustainable levels. Thus it has become necessary to determine the influence that exchange rate changes have on domestic prices given that one of the major determinants of inflation is exchange rate movements. For this reason, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in Kenya. In addition, it takes into account the direction and size of changes in the exchange rates to determine whether the exchange rate fluctuations are symmetric or asymmetric. The thesis uses quarterly data ranging from 1993:Ql - 2008:Q4 as it takes into account the period when the process of liberalization occurred. The empirical estimation was done in two stages. The first stage was estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) co integration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage entailed estimating the impulse response and variance decomposition functions as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. In determining the asymmetric aspect of the analysis, the study followed Pollard and Coughlin (2004) and Webber (2000) frameworks in analysing asymmetry with respect to appreciation and depreciation and large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results obtained showed that ERPT to Kenya is incomplete but relatively low at about 36 percent in the long run. In terms of asymmetry, the results showed that ERPT is found to be higher in periods of appreciation than depreciation. This is in support of market share and binding quantity constraints theory. In relation to size changes, the results show that size changes have no significant impact on ERPT in Kenya.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Mnjama, Gladys Susan
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Kenya -- Economic conditions , Kenya -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models , Foreign exchange rates -- Kenya , Stocks -- Prices -- Kenya , Banks and banking -- Kenya , Cointegration , Econometrics , Inflation (Finance) -- Kenya
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:975 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002709 , Kenya -- Economic conditions , Kenya -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models , Foreign exchange rates -- Kenya , Stocks -- Prices -- Kenya , Banks and banking -- Kenya , Cointegration , Econometrics , Inflation (Finance) -- Kenya
- Description: In 1993, Kenya liberalised its trade policy and allowed the Kenyan Shillings to freely float. This openness has left Kenya's domestic prices vulnerable to the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. One of the objectives of the Central Bank of Kenya is to maintain inflation levels at sustainable levels. Thus it has become necessary to determine the influence that exchange rate changes have on domestic prices given that one of the major determinants of inflation is exchange rate movements. For this reason, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in Kenya. In addition, it takes into account the direction and size of changes in the exchange rates to determine whether the exchange rate fluctuations are symmetric or asymmetric. The thesis uses quarterly data ranging from 1993:Ql - 2008:Q4 as it takes into account the period when the process of liberalization occurred. The empirical estimation was done in two stages. The first stage was estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) co integration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage entailed estimating the impulse response and variance decomposition functions as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. In determining the asymmetric aspect of the analysis, the study followed Pollard and Coughlin (2004) and Webber (2000) frameworks in analysing asymmetry with respect to appreciation and depreciation and large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results obtained showed that ERPT to Kenya is incomplete but relatively low at about 36 percent in the long run. In terms of asymmetry, the results showed that ERPT is found to be higher in periods of appreciation than depreciation. This is in support of market share and binding quantity constraints theory. In relation to size changes, the results show that size changes have no significant impact on ERPT in Kenya.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Institutional change, institutional isolation and biodiversity governance in South Africa: a case study of the trout industry in alien and invasive species regulatory reforms
- Authors: Marire, Juniours
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/639 , vital:19977
- Description: The world, in recent decades, has witnessed an incalculable surge in global “wicked” policy problems that have long-term, and most often irreversible, impacts, not least terrorism, climate change, biodiversity losses and desertification. Wicked problems are wicked because there is no single epistemological system that can adequately coordinate policy action for addressing them. Literature abounds with international case studies of opposition to national institutions that are designed to put into effect global and regional policies for resolving wicked problems. This raises questions about what constitutes reasonable institutions, how such institutions can be designed and why societies sometimes fail to develop such institutions despite the obvious need for them. As a point of entry into these issues, the thesis adapted and extended the Northean (2007, 2012) macro meta-theoretic framework for studying the violence-development relationship, which focuses on the role of political and economic competition in the emergence of ‘right’ institutions that promote development, while containing violence. The Northean framework conceptualises two mutually exclusive social orders – the limited access order and the open access order – which provide the socio-cultural context for the evolution of specific institutions. The macro meta-theoretic framework was transformed into a micro metatheoretic framework in such a way that the limited access order and the open access order co-existed in the evolution of specific institutions. This reconceptualisation built on Bromley’s (2004, 2006) two realms of public policy: the realm of reasons (legislative-judicial system) and the realm of rules (administrative system) as well as the feminist concept of epistemic violence, which broadened the concept of violence from being exclusively physical to including the sociocognitive. The feminist concept of epistemic oppression logically fitted into, and became a new sub-category of, Commons’ (1899, 1924, 1934) theories of sovereignty and negotiational psychology. The innovations showed that either of these realms can be a limited access order, while the other can be an open access order or both can be open access orders or both can be limited access orders. The conceptual innovations were then used as an interpretive scheme in analysing the evolution of the South African invasive alien species regulatory reforms under the National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act of 2004, using a case study of the trout sector, which was the most opposed to the reforms. There was a general perception among socioeconomic sectors that utilise invasive alien species that the regulatory reform processes for the governance of such species had institutionally isolated the sectors. Because of this perception, the regulatory reform process was contested, and implementation of the Fifth Chapter of the Act, which deals with the governance of invasive alien species, was delayed for nearly a decade. The thesis evaluated whether institutional isolation existed and how and why it came to be since it has implications for the reasonableness of emerging regulatory institutions, economic performance of sectors and efficient allocation of fiscal resources in institutional design processes. A mixed methods methodology was used, which included data analysis techniques such as semiosis, exploratory factor analysis, econometric estimation and document analysis. Policy documents, an online survey and key informant interviews comprised the data. The findings suggested six dimensions of institutional change that a theory of institutional change might have to address: the origin and continuity of pecuniary institutions; selfreinforcing mechanisms of the limited access policymaking order; succession and disbandment of the limited access policymaking order; exclusivity of negotiations in institutional design; tiers of institutional isolation; and the role of administrative discontinuities. Findings suggested that institutional isolation existed in the regulatory process, manifesting in three forms: administrative isolation, epistemological isolation and sectoral isolation. Administrative isolation was the most complex of the three in that it also involved a less obvious process of institutional isolation in the form of administrative redefinition of opportunity sets that were already legislatively redefined. The mechanisms of institutional isolation through which administrative isolation was sustained were administrative financing of research and careerism. The two mechanisms created a revolving door-type scenario through which invasion biologists supplied the administrative agency with candidates for senior (decision making) positions and the administrative agency, in turn, demanded specific types of knowledge over which the same epistemic community had a monopoly. The revolving door-type scenario was found to ideologically and physically entrench invasion biologists into the regulatory community. The consequence of the entrenchment was institutional hegemony, which manifested itself through the mechanism of epistemic violence insofar as the invasion biologists became the epistemic arbiters about what kinds of ideas and institutions really mattered in the governance of invasive alien species. Econometric estimates suggested that the extent to which an emerging institution is perceived to be reasonable by regulated sectors depends on the extent to which the institution is designed in a participatory and inclusive manner (that is, using integrative knowledge systems), the extent to which the designers used credible evidence and contextualised international evidence as well as the extent to which the emergent biodiversity governance institution was anthropocentric. However, findings suggested that the South African regulatory reform process fell short on all these four dimensions of reasonable institutions, which is characteristic of institutional design process shaped by hegemonic social imaginaries, resulting in institutional isolation. Emerging from the findings are several theoretical insights. Bush’s (1987) concept of institutional spaces under the Veblenian Dichotomy was extended, the result of which was identification of two stable institutional equilibria – one ceremonial and another instrumental. The ceremonial equilibrium was a typical limited access policymaking order and was responsible for the historical and present emergence of regressive institutions. Findings also suggested that the entrenched invasion biologists ceremonially encapsulated the knowledge fund that had been accumulated since the 1980s, which could have facilitated the consensual design of regulatory institutions for invasive alien species without protracted controversy. Findings suggested that a limited access policymaking order could only be disbanded by the intervention of an external sovereign agent (in this case the office of the state president) since the administrative agency, and the epistemic community that advised it, adopted the solutions that were empirically tested and proposed in the 1980s only after the intervention of the external sovereign agent. The instrumental equilibrium repealed the contested prisoner’s dilemma that was characteristic of the policy process and turned it into an assurance policy game by facilitating the identification of common interests. This finding logically links the study to a recent theoretical development in institutional theory – Ordonomics – which focuses on the causality between ideas and institutions. The findings imply that it is possible to design reasonable institutions as long as integrative (transdisciplinary) knowledge systems, including the non-scientific knowledge of the resource users, are incorporated. Integrative knowledge systems facilitate semantic innovations, which create social DNA, but epistemic violence destroys social DNA. They also imply that reliance on unidisciplinary knowledge systems in institutional design induces a large and inefficient transaction cost burden of public policy on the fiscus and private agents alike because of the inevitability of controversy, especially for wicked policy problems.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Marire, Juniours
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/639 , vital:19977
- Description: The world, in recent decades, has witnessed an incalculable surge in global “wicked” policy problems that have long-term, and most often irreversible, impacts, not least terrorism, climate change, biodiversity losses and desertification. Wicked problems are wicked because there is no single epistemological system that can adequately coordinate policy action for addressing them. Literature abounds with international case studies of opposition to national institutions that are designed to put into effect global and regional policies for resolving wicked problems. This raises questions about what constitutes reasonable institutions, how such institutions can be designed and why societies sometimes fail to develop such institutions despite the obvious need for them. As a point of entry into these issues, the thesis adapted and extended the Northean (2007, 2012) macro meta-theoretic framework for studying the violence-development relationship, which focuses on the role of political and economic competition in the emergence of ‘right’ institutions that promote development, while containing violence. The Northean framework conceptualises two mutually exclusive social orders – the limited access order and the open access order – which provide the socio-cultural context for the evolution of specific institutions. The macro meta-theoretic framework was transformed into a micro metatheoretic framework in such a way that the limited access order and the open access order co-existed in the evolution of specific institutions. This reconceptualisation built on Bromley’s (2004, 2006) two realms of public policy: the realm of reasons (legislative-judicial system) and the realm of rules (administrative system) as well as the feminist concept of epistemic violence, which broadened the concept of violence from being exclusively physical to including the sociocognitive. The feminist concept of epistemic oppression logically fitted into, and became a new sub-category of, Commons’ (1899, 1924, 1934) theories of sovereignty and negotiational psychology. The innovations showed that either of these realms can be a limited access order, while the other can be an open access order or both can be open access orders or both can be limited access orders. The conceptual innovations were then used as an interpretive scheme in analysing the evolution of the South African invasive alien species regulatory reforms under the National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act of 2004, using a case study of the trout sector, which was the most opposed to the reforms. There was a general perception among socioeconomic sectors that utilise invasive alien species that the regulatory reform processes for the governance of such species had institutionally isolated the sectors. Because of this perception, the regulatory reform process was contested, and implementation of the Fifth Chapter of the Act, which deals with the governance of invasive alien species, was delayed for nearly a decade. The thesis evaluated whether institutional isolation existed and how and why it came to be since it has implications for the reasonableness of emerging regulatory institutions, economic performance of sectors and efficient allocation of fiscal resources in institutional design processes. A mixed methods methodology was used, which included data analysis techniques such as semiosis, exploratory factor analysis, econometric estimation and document analysis. Policy documents, an online survey and key informant interviews comprised the data. The findings suggested six dimensions of institutional change that a theory of institutional change might have to address: the origin and continuity of pecuniary institutions; selfreinforcing mechanisms of the limited access policymaking order; succession and disbandment of the limited access policymaking order; exclusivity of negotiations in institutional design; tiers of institutional isolation; and the role of administrative discontinuities. Findings suggested that institutional isolation existed in the regulatory process, manifesting in three forms: administrative isolation, epistemological isolation and sectoral isolation. Administrative isolation was the most complex of the three in that it also involved a less obvious process of institutional isolation in the form of administrative redefinition of opportunity sets that were already legislatively redefined. The mechanisms of institutional isolation through which administrative isolation was sustained were administrative financing of research and careerism. The two mechanisms created a revolving door-type scenario through which invasion biologists supplied the administrative agency with candidates for senior (decision making) positions and the administrative agency, in turn, demanded specific types of knowledge over which the same epistemic community had a monopoly. The revolving door-type scenario was found to ideologically and physically entrench invasion biologists into the regulatory community. The consequence of the entrenchment was institutional hegemony, which manifested itself through the mechanism of epistemic violence insofar as the invasion biologists became the epistemic arbiters about what kinds of ideas and institutions really mattered in the governance of invasive alien species. Econometric estimates suggested that the extent to which an emerging institution is perceived to be reasonable by regulated sectors depends on the extent to which the institution is designed in a participatory and inclusive manner (that is, using integrative knowledge systems), the extent to which the designers used credible evidence and contextualised international evidence as well as the extent to which the emergent biodiversity governance institution was anthropocentric. However, findings suggested that the South African regulatory reform process fell short on all these four dimensions of reasonable institutions, which is characteristic of institutional design process shaped by hegemonic social imaginaries, resulting in institutional isolation. Emerging from the findings are several theoretical insights. Bush’s (1987) concept of institutional spaces under the Veblenian Dichotomy was extended, the result of which was identification of two stable institutional equilibria – one ceremonial and another instrumental. The ceremonial equilibrium was a typical limited access policymaking order and was responsible for the historical and present emergence of regressive institutions. Findings also suggested that the entrenched invasion biologists ceremonially encapsulated the knowledge fund that had been accumulated since the 1980s, which could have facilitated the consensual design of regulatory institutions for invasive alien species without protracted controversy. Findings suggested that a limited access policymaking order could only be disbanded by the intervention of an external sovereign agent (in this case the office of the state president) since the administrative agency, and the epistemic community that advised it, adopted the solutions that were empirically tested and proposed in the 1980s only after the intervention of the external sovereign agent. The instrumental equilibrium repealed the contested prisoner’s dilemma that was characteristic of the policy process and turned it into an assurance policy game by facilitating the identification of common interests. This finding logically links the study to a recent theoretical development in institutional theory – Ordonomics – which focuses on the causality between ideas and institutions. The findings imply that it is possible to design reasonable institutions as long as integrative (transdisciplinary) knowledge systems, including the non-scientific knowledge of the resource users, are incorporated. Integrative knowledge systems facilitate semantic innovations, which create social DNA, but epistemic violence destroys social DNA. They also imply that reliance on unidisciplinary knowledge systems in institutional design induces a large and inefficient transaction cost burden of public policy on the fiscus and private agents alike because of the inevitability of controversy, especially for wicked policy problems.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
An analysis of alternative objective measures of economic performance and social development.
- Authors: Hlanti, Msawenkosi Madoda
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: National income -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Economic development -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa , Social planning -- South Africa , Economic policy , South Africa -- Social conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1099 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013144
- Description: The measurement of economic performance and social development has become increasingly important as societies have evolved and become more complex. At present nations do not only seek to improve economic performance but are also compelled to improve social development through improvements in socially and environmentally sustainable initiatives. Traditional measures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is derived from United Nations’ System of National Accounts (SNA) have been criticised given the inability to adequately account for these social and environmental aspects of social development. Given these perceived deficiencies in the conventional measures, several alternative objective measures have been proposed in an attempt to address these shortcomings. Therefore the primary aim of this study is to analyse, via a literature survey, these alternative objective measures of economic performance and social development. The alternative measures that constitute the survey are the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), the Genuine Savings (GS), and the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI). Upon the completion of the literature survey, sustainable development theory is used to evaluate the extent to which the National Accounts and the alternative objective measures are consistent with Hicksian and Fisherian definitions of income and capital, which embody the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development. The evaluation reveals that the National Accounts neither conform to the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income, thus could not be viewed as a measure of sustainable income. It is found that the ISEW is consistent with the Fisherian definition of income and is also a partial indicator of sustainable development. The evaluation of the GS measure reveals that it is consistent with the Hicksian definition but not the Fisherian definition. In terms of overall sustainability, it is argued that GS is a partial measure of weak sustainability. The HDI is similar to the National Accounts, in that it is neither consistent with the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income and is also not a measure of sustainability. In summary, the study demonstrates that despite GDP's shortcomings as a measure of economic performance and social development, currently, there is no alternative approach which simultaneously addresses every flaw in GDP. However, all the alternatives yield a much better approximation of social development than GDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Hlanti, Msawenkosi Madoda
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: National income -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Economic development -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Evaluation , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Sustainable development -- South Africa , Social planning -- South Africa , Economic policy , South Africa -- Social conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1099 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013144
- Description: The measurement of economic performance and social development has become increasingly important as societies have evolved and become more complex. At present nations do not only seek to improve economic performance but are also compelled to improve social development through improvements in socially and environmentally sustainable initiatives. Traditional measures such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is derived from United Nations’ System of National Accounts (SNA) have been criticised given the inability to adequately account for these social and environmental aspects of social development. Given these perceived deficiencies in the conventional measures, several alternative objective measures have been proposed in an attempt to address these shortcomings. Therefore the primary aim of this study is to analyse, via a literature survey, these alternative objective measures of economic performance and social development. The alternative measures that constitute the survey are the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), the Genuine Savings (GS), and the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI). Upon the completion of the literature survey, sustainable development theory is used to evaluate the extent to which the National Accounts and the alternative objective measures are consistent with Hicksian and Fisherian definitions of income and capital, which embody the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development. The evaluation reveals that the National Accounts neither conform to the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income, thus could not be viewed as a measure of sustainable income. It is found that the ISEW is consistent with the Fisherian definition of income and is also a partial indicator of sustainable development. The evaluation of the GS measure reveals that it is consistent with the Hicksian definition but not the Fisherian definition. In terms of overall sustainability, it is argued that GS is a partial measure of weak sustainability. The HDI is similar to the National Accounts, in that it is neither consistent with the Hicksian nor the Fisherian definitions of income and is also not a measure of sustainability. In summary, the study demonstrates that despite GDP's shortcomings as a measure of economic performance and social development, currently, there is no alternative approach which simultaneously addresses every flaw in GDP. However, all the alternatives yield a much better approximation of social development than GDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The fourth industrial revolution and human capital development
- Authors: Goldschmidt, Kyle
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Technological innovations -- Economic aspects , Human capital , Intellectual capital , Economic development , Economic development -- Effect of education on , Fourth industrial revolution
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62483 , vital:28197
- Description: The focus of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been on its implications on Human Capital and its need to develop “21st-Century Skills" through education to ensure future labour and capital complementarity. Human Capital combined with 21st-Century Skills, it is claimed, can together generate economic growth, jobs and propel an economy into the next Industrial Revolution. However, Schwab’s (2016) concept of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, make no distinction between the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite and their relationship to each other and successful economic growth. The different nature of these skills is absent in the literature to date. A critical analysis of literature will be used to examine Schwab’s (2016) claim of a Fourth Industrial Revolution and assess how the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite relate to the Fourth Industrial Revolution and 21st-Century Skills. The evidence is provided on how both the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite are key contributors to economic growth and will be important in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Goldschmidt, Kyle
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Technological innovations -- Economic aspects , Human capital , Intellectual capital , Economic development , Economic development -- Effect of education on , Fourth industrial revolution
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62483 , vital:28197
- Description: The focus of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been on its implications on Human Capital and its need to develop “21st-Century Skills" through education to ensure future labour and capital complementarity. Human Capital combined with 21st-Century Skills, it is claimed, can together generate economic growth, jobs and propel an economy into the next Industrial Revolution. However, Schwab’s (2016) concept of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, make no distinction between the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite and their relationship to each other and successful economic growth. The different nature of these skills is absent in the literature to date. A critical analysis of literature will be used to examine Schwab’s (2016) claim of a Fourth Industrial Revolution and assess how the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite relate to the Fourth Industrial Revolution and 21st-Century Skills. The evidence is provided on how both the Average Worker and the Knowledge Elite are key contributors to economic growth and will be important in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
The development of professional short term reinsurance in South Africa : 1950-1985
- Authors: Laing, Angus Wallace
- Date: 1990
- Subjects: Reinsurance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:926 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001452
- Description: This thesis covers the history of short term reinsurance in South Africa from 1950 to 1985 and shows how it developed from a very limited market in which insurers generally relied on British and European professional reinsurers to a viable local market albeit with strong foreign support. The study demonstrates that the local reinsurance market grew in parallel with the development of the South African economy and the consequent need for extensive cover arising from the country's industrial expansion. It considers the different problems of the two waves of locally established reinsurers and the different circumstances prevailing in the two distinct eras of South African short term reinsurance. The conclusion reached is that, notwithstanding the varied results of individual reinsurers and the collapse of two local reinsurance companies, the market performed well and succeeded in meeting the needs of the South African short term insurance market
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1990
- Authors: Laing, Angus Wallace
- Date: 1990
- Subjects: Reinsurance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:926 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001452
- Description: This thesis covers the history of short term reinsurance in South Africa from 1950 to 1985 and shows how it developed from a very limited market in which insurers generally relied on British and European professional reinsurers to a viable local market albeit with strong foreign support. The study demonstrates that the local reinsurance market grew in parallel with the development of the South African economy and the consequent need for extensive cover arising from the country's industrial expansion. It considers the different problems of the two waves of locally established reinsurers and the different circumstances prevailing in the two distinct eras of South African short term reinsurance. The conclusion reached is that, notwithstanding the varied results of individual reinsurers and the collapse of two local reinsurance companies, the market performed well and succeeded in meeting the needs of the South African short term insurance market
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1990