An analysis of the long run comovements between financial system development and mining production in South Africa
- Authors: Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:955 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689 , Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Description: This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:955 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689 , Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Description: This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Development finance in small and medium enterprises in Matjhabeng Municipality
- Babalola, Oluwanifesimi Omolade
- Authors: Babalola, Oluwanifesimi Omolade
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Business enterprises -- South Africa -- Finance , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9187 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020215
- Description: It has been generally accepted within the developed and developing countries of the world that SMES contributes significantly to employment creation as the world population increases and that it also contributes to the economic growth of the areas they are situated in. Finance is the blood (life) of any business, for a business to be successful it needs steady successful access to funds and post financial support which leads to actualization of ideas, leads to investment and expansion, improves access to market amongst others. This is why the impact of development finance can never be over emphasized. The aims of the study are: To understand the extent to which small and medium businesses are supported through the availability of financial assistance in Matjabeng Municipality. To establish the survival rates of businesses that has been funded and or supported and whether they are or not sustainable. In achieving the aims and objectives of the research, the researcher looked at development funds both from the supply side and the demand side. The supply side which involved semi structured interviews with consultants of government parastatals (the FDC and DETEA) who are involved in financing Small Medium Enterprises in Matjhabeng municipality. The demand side involved administering of questionnaires to Entrepreneurs in the municipality who are registered with the Local Economic Department (LED), which led to the acceptance of the hypothesis of the research that development finance actually helps in the growth of small medium enterprises but in conjunction with post financial support such as bookkeeping, accounting, monitoring and evaluation. The researcher also discovered some findings amongst others which includes: The most effective ways entrepreneurs heard about funding in the municipality are through the media and word of mouth. Most of the entrepreneurs that received some type of funding are startups. More entrepreneurs that had access to funds also got some post financial business support. Financial assistance to entrepreneurs yielded improvements after respondents received financial assistance, the range of goods offered was improved and more jobs were created, entrepreneurs were able to obtain better business premises either by renting or buying and entrepreneurs had access to better equipment. Some of the recommendations of this study includes; The municipal government should help small and medium enterprises in the municipality by linking them to new markets. Effective monitoring and evaluation systems should be put in place by development funders and non-financial support services. Entrepreneurial skills development should be provided by the public and private agencies by organizing workshops for aspiring entrepreneurs in order to expose them to business opportunities that are sustainable and viable.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Babalola, Oluwanifesimi Omolade
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Business enterprises -- South Africa -- Finance , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9187 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020215
- Description: It has been generally accepted within the developed and developing countries of the world that SMES contributes significantly to employment creation as the world population increases and that it also contributes to the economic growth of the areas they are situated in. Finance is the blood (life) of any business, for a business to be successful it needs steady successful access to funds and post financial support which leads to actualization of ideas, leads to investment and expansion, improves access to market amongst others. This is why the impact of development finance can never be over emphasized. The aims of the study are: To understand the extent to which small and medium businesses are supported through the availability of financial assistance in Matjabeng Municipality. To establish the survival rates of businesses that has been funded and or supported and whether they are or not sustainable. In achieving the aims and objectives of the research, the researcher looked at development funds both from the supply side and the demand side. The supply side which involved semi structured interviews with consultants of government parastatals (the FDC and DETEA) who are involved in financing Small Medium Enterprises in Matjhabeng municipality. The demand side involved administering of questionnaires to Entrepreneurs in the municipality who are registered with the Local Economic Department (LED), which led to the acceptance of the hypothesis of the research that development finance actually helps in the growth of small medium enterprises but in conjunction with post financial support such as bookkeeping, accounting, monitoring and evaluation. The researcher also discovered some findings amongst others which includes: The most effective ways entrepreneurs heard about funding in the municipality are through the media and word of mouth. Most of the entrepreneurs that received some type of funding are startups. More entrepreneurs that had access to funds also got some post financial business support. Financial assistance to entrepreneurs yielded improvements after respondents received financial assistance, the range of goods offered was improved and more jobs were created, entrepreneurs were able to obtain better business premises either by renting or buying and entrepreneurs had access to better equipment. Some of the recommendations of this study includes; The municipal government should help small and medium enterprises in the municipality by linking them to new markets. Effective monitoring and evaluation systems should be put in place by development funders and non-financial support services. Entrepreneurial skills development should be provided by the public and private agencies by organizing workshops for aspiring entrepreneurs in order to expose them to business opportunities that are sustainable and viable.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The effect of real exchange rate volatility on export performance: evidence from South Africa (2000-2011)
- Authors: Chamunorwa, Wilson
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11499 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018600 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The effect of real exchange rate volatility on export performance: evidence from South Africa (2000-2011) This study sought to investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance in South Africa. The main objective of the study was to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on export performance in South Africa. This relationship was examined using GARCH methods. Exports were regressed against real effective exchange rate, trade openness and capacity utilisation. The research aimed to establish whether exchange rate volatility impacts negatively on export performance in the manner suggested by the econometric model. The result obtained showed that exchange rate volatility had a significantly negative effect on South African exports in the period 2000-2011.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Chamunorwa, Wilson
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11499 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1018600 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The effect of real exchange rate volatility on export performance: evidence from South Africa (2000-2011) This study sought to investigate the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance in South Africa. The main objective of the study was to examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on export performance in South Africa. This relationship was examined using GARCH methods. Exports were regressed against real effective exchange rate, trade openness and capacity utilisation. The research aimed to establish whether exchange rate volatility impacts negatively on export performance in the manner suggested by the econometric model. The result obtained showed that exchange rate volatility had a significantly negative effect on South African exports in the period 2000-2011.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
A proposed model for enterprise resource planning benefits for SMEs
- Authors: De Matos, Paulo
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Small business -- South Africa Enterprise resource planning -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/14971 , vital:28107
- Description: Small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs) play a significant role in global and national economies, both in developed and developing countries, contributing significantly to economic growth and job creation. Yet, SMEs face ongoing survival issues as their limited access to resources often constrains their ability to compete and realise their potential. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems are known to be a crucial component in realising benefits for any organisation and are seen as significant contributors to an organisation’s performance. However, only a portion of SMEs report that their value expectations have been met in adopting an ERP system. SMEs require a better understanding of how to extract value from ERP adoption in order to remain competitive. An on-going SME problem is a lack of low-level awareness of the benefits that an ERP system is capable of providing them. The problem is stated as “SMEs do not understand the benefits derived from the adoption of an ERP system”. The purpose of this treatise was to determine a clearer understanding of how ERP systems can be considered a technological innovation that may be exploited by an SME to deliver business value by increasing the performance of the SME and thereby increasing the SME’s competitive advantage. A literature review was conducted on ERP and SMEs which identified benefit models grounded in the theories of Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) and Resource Based View (RBV). DOI explains the benefits derived from ERP use as the technology diffuses throughout the social organisation and RBV measures the business value extracted from ERP adoption and use. A model for ERP benefits for SMEs was proposed based on the extant literature and empirical evaluation on a sample of 107 SYSPRO ERP users in South Africa. The model was statistically assessed as to the relationships between the independent variables of ease of use, collaboration, capabilities, efficiencies, analytics, industry sector and maturity against the dependent variable of ERP business value. The variables of analytics, capabilities and ease of use together explain 68.9% of the variance of ERP business value, while analytics and capabilities explain 53.8%. No significant relationship was found for efficiencies, collaboration, industry or maturity, being a measure of length of years’ experience in ERP use. The results indicate that SMEs perceive analytics to be a valuable determinant of ERP value contributing to the competitiveness of SMEs. The higher the SME focuses on analytics, the greater the organisation’s performance increases due to the enhancement of analytical-based decisions aiding in a better decision-making process. Capabilities are the degree to which an ERP system caters for the functional needs of the SME. This treatise argues that SMEs should pay particular focus on their operational requirements and whether the ERP system is capable of providing them as customisation of the ERP is costly. Organisational personnel utilising ERP must be comfortable utilising it. Perceptions as to an ERP’s complexity and usefulness define the ease-of-use. SMEs should consider the inherent aspects of a given ERP system that support the adoption rate of their personnel of an ERP system. Practically, SMEs should assess the degree of system intuitiveness both during ERP selection and during the adoption lifecycle phases. ERP providers should focus on the provisioning of aspects both in the software and during the implementation of an ERP system at an SME in ensuring the system is intuitive, useful, easy to use, functionally addresses the SME requirements simply and surfaces meaningful analytics in support of decision-making process.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: De Matos, Paulo
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Small business -- South Africa Enterprise resource planning -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/14971 , vital:28107
- Description: Small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs) play a significant role in global and national economies, both in developed and developing countries, contributing significantly to economic growth and job creation. Yet, SMEs face ongoing survival issues as their limited access to resources often constrains their ability to compete and realise their potential. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems are known to be a crucial component in realising benefits for any organisation and are seen as significant contributors to an organisation’s performance. However, only a portion of SMEs report that their value expectations have been met in adopting an ERP system. SMEs require a better understanding of how to extract value from ERP adoption in order to remain competitive. An on-going SME problem is a lack of low-level awareness of the benefits that an ERP system is capable of providing them. The problem is stated as “SMEs do not understand the benefits derived from the adoption of an ERP system”. The purpose of this treatise was to determine a clearer understanding of how ERP systems can be considered a technological innovation that may be exploited by an SME to deliver business value by increasing the performance of the SME and thereby increasing the SME’s competitive advantage. A literature review was conducted on ERP and SMEs which identified benefit models grounded in the theories of Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) and Resource Based View (RBV). DOI explains the benefits derived from ERP use as the technology diffuses throughout the social organisation and RBV measures the business value extracted from ERP adoption and use. A model for ERP benefits for SMEs was proposed based on the extant literature and empirical evaluation on a sample of 107 SYSPRO ERP users in South Africa. The model was statistically assessed as to the relationships between the independent variables of ease of use, collaboration, capabilities, efficiencies, analytics, industry sector and maturity against the dependent variable of ERP business value. The variables of analytics, capabilities and ease of use together explain 68.9% of the variance of ERP business value, while analytics and capabilities explain 53.8%. No significant relationship was found for efficiencies, collaboration, industry or maturity, being a measure of length of years’ experience in ERP use. The results indicate that SMEs perceive analytics to be a valuable determinant of ERP value contributing to the competitiveness of SMEs. The higher the SME focuses on analytics, the greater the organisation’s performance increases due to the enhancement of analytical-based decisions aiding in a better decision-making process. Capabilities are the degree to which an ERP system caters for the functional needs of the SME. This treatise argues that SMEs should pay particular focus on their operational requirements and whether the ERP system is capable of providing them as customisation of the ERP is costly. Organisational personnel utilising ERP must be comfortable utilising it. Perceptions as to an ERP’s complexity and usefulness define the ease-of-use. SMEs should consider the inherent aspects of a given ERP system that support the adoption rate of their personnel of an ERP system. Practically, SMEs should assess the degree of system intuitiveness both during ERP selection and during the adoption lifecycle phases. ERP providers should focus on the provisioning of aspects both in the software and during the implementation of an ERP system at an SME in ensuring the system is intuitive, useful, easy to use, functionally addresses the SME requirements simply and surfaces meaningful analytics in support of decision-making process.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
The effect of bond market on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Dingela, Siyasanga
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Bond market -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/7218 , vital:21306
- Description: This paper investigates the effect of bond market on economic growth in South Africa. Quarterly data for South Africa for the period 2003-2014 was used to develop a general- to- specific Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical results confirm that there is a positive relationship between Bond market and economic growth in South Africa. A co-integrated relationship between economic growth, stock market and banking sector was noticed in both the long-run and short-runs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Dingela, Siyasanga
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Bond market -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/7218 , vital:21306
- Description: This paper investigates the effect of bond market on economic growth in South Africa. Quarterly data for South Africa for the period 2003-2014 was used to develop a general- to- specific Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical results confirm that there is a positive relationship between Bond market and economic growth in South Africa. A co-integrated relationship between economic growth, stock market and banking sector was noticed in both the long-run and short-runs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
The impact of private capital flows on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Dzangare, Gillian
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007134 , Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: In this study an analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth measured as real GDP growth and private capital inflows is explored. The link between private capital inflows and economic growth is well-documented in the literature. However, a void in the literature relates to examining the cointegrating relationship between private capital inflows and economic growth particularly for South Africa. It is widely claimed that private capital inflows foster economic growth by closing the savings/investment gap. However, clarity on this point is necessary because of the seemingly unclear nature of the relationship in the literature. The exact form of this relationship as well as the nature of capital flows that could impact on real growth requires further investigation. Moreover, what exactly happens to this relationship in an economic crisis such as recently recorded in the global financial crisis is not clear. The analysis is undertaken by employing cointegration and vector error correction modeling approach using quarterly data for the period 1989q4-2009q4. This study employs the Johansen (1998) cointegration test. This technique distinguishes itself since it establishes the long run relationship between variables. Thereafter, residual diagnostic checks are performed on the variables. Our results show among others, that private capital inflows have impacted positively on the growth of the South African economy. The areas for further research that emerge from this study include the effect of some government policies on economic growth that should also receive more attention in the future since political instability slows down investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Dzangare, Gillian
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11472 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007134 , Economic development -- South Africa , Capital movements -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Development economics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Cointegration -- South Africa , South Africa -- Commercial policy
- Description: In this study an analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth measured as real GDP growth and private capital inflows is explored. The link between private capital inflows and economic growth is well-documented in the literature. However, a void in the literature relates to examining the cointegrating relationship between private capital inflows and economic growth particularly for South Africa. It is widely claimed that private capital inflows foster economic growth by closing the savings/investment gap. However, clarity on this point is necessary because of the seemingly unclear nature of the relationship in the literature. The exact form of this relationship as well as the nature of capital flows that could impact on real growth requires further investigation. Moreover, what exactly happens to this relationship in an economic crisis such as recently recorded in the global financial crisis is not clear. The analysis is undertaken by employing cointegration and vector error correction modeling approach using quarterly data for the period 1989q4-2009q4. This study employs the Johansen (1998) cointegration test. This technique distinguishes itself since it establishes the long run relationship between variables. Thereafter, residual diagnostic checks are performed on the variables. Our results show among others, that private capital inflows have impacted positively on the growth of the South African economy. The areas for further research that emerge from this study include the effect of some government policies on economic growth that should also receive more attention in the future since political instability slows down investment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Some aspects of housing economics with reference to the coloured population of South Africa
- Authors: Farabi, Sadraddin
- Date: 1981 , 2013-04-02
- Subjects: Housing -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Regional economics -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Colored people (South Africa) -- Housing , Colored people (South Africa) -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1050 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006342 , Housing -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Regional economics -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Colored people (South Africa) -- Housing , Colored people (South Africa) -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1981
- Authors: Farabi, Sadraddin
- Date: 1981 , 2013-04-02
- Subjects: Housing -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Regional economics -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Colored people (South Africa) -- Housing , Colored people (South Africa) -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1050 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006342 , Housing -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Regional economics -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Colored people (South Africa) -- Housing , Colored people (South Africa) -- South Africa -- Grahamstown
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1981
Why has South Africa been relatively unsuccessful at attracting inward foreign direct investment since 1994?
- Authors: Fulton, Mark Hugh John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Africa, Southern , Investments, Foreign -- Chile , Investments, Foreign -- Botswana , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries , Political corruption -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1097 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013056
- Description: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into South Africa have been very low for several decades, and this research examines the reason(s) why this has been the case since 1994. There is a common belief amongst economists that there is a positive relationship between the amount of FDI received and economic growth, thus the desire to attract greater FDI inflows. A literature review was conducted to establish the determinants of FDI globally and then data were collected and assessed to test which causes are most important. The performance of developing nations in attracting FDI was first compared with that of the developed nations. Thereafter, a regional breakdown of FDI flows was presented, with a particular focus on the Southern African region. FDI inflows to South Africa since 1994 were compared against the identified determinants of FDI, as well as with FDI inflows into two other major mining economies, Chile and Botswana. The friendliness of the government towards business was identified as a significant determinant of FDI inflows and the importance of this factor in explaining FDI inflows into environment in South Africa was looked at in more depth. It was found that many investors perceive the South African government as hostile towards business and as corrupt and/or inefficient. The empirical results show that this negative perception helps explain the FDI inflows attracted by South Africa since 1994. Therefore, increased friendliness to business by the government should increase future inward FDI flows into South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Fulton, Mark Hugh John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Africa, Southern , Investments, Foreign -- Chile , Investments, Foreign -- Botswana , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries , Political corruption -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1097 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013056
- Description: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into South Africa have been very low for several decades, and this research examines the reason(s) why this has been the case since 1994. There is a common belief amongst economists that there is a positive relationship between the amount of FDI received and economic growth, thus the desire to attract greater FDI inflows. A literature review was conducted to establish the determinants of FDI globally and then data were collected and assessed to test which causes are most important. The performance of developing nations in attracting FDI was first compared with that of the developed nations. Thereafter, a regional breakdown of FDI flows was presented, with a particular focus on the Southern African region. FDI inflows to South Africa since 1994 were compared against the identified determinants of FDI, as well as with FDI inflows into two other major mining economies, Chile and Botswana. The friendliness of the government towards business was identified as a significant determinant of FDI inflows and the importance of this factor in explaining FDI inflows into environment in South Africa was looked at in more depth. It was found that many investors perceive the South African government as hostile towards business and as corrupt and/or inefficient. The empirical results show that this negative perception helps explain the FDI inflows attracted by South Africa since 1994. Therefore, increased friendliness to business by the government should increase future inward FDI flows into South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Establishing perceptions of an entrepreneur using word associations
- Authors: Goliath, Jasmine Estonia
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Businesspeople -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9321 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020785
- Description: Entrepreneurship as a source of economic growth and competitiveness as well as job creation and the advancement of social interests is well documented. Despite these important contributions to the economies of countries, a shortage of entrepreneurial activity exists across borders and specifically in developing countries such as South Africa. The purpose of this study was to determine the perception and image of an entrepreneur in the eyes of various stakeholders. The reasoning behind this was that if the image of an entrepreneur could be determined, one could establish whether the image positively or negatively influences entrepreneurial intentions as well as potential future entrepreneurial activity. More specifically, the primary objective was to identify the perception and image that potential entrepreneurs (students) and existing entrepreneurs (small business owners) have of an entrepreneur. In the body of knowledge or general literature on entrepreneurship, the most commonly discussed topics are the nature and importance of entrepreneurship, the attributes (personality traits, characteristics and skills) associated with an entrepreneur, various push and pull factors, various rewards and drawbacks of such a career and the challenges entrepreneurs face. It is these aspects of entrepreneurship that stakeholders will most likely have been exposed to, and that most possibly have influenced their perception and image of an entrepreneur. The aforementioned aspects provided an overview of the theoretical body of knowledge on which the perception and image of an entrepreneur is based. The present study adopted a qualitative research paradigm with a phenomenological approach to achieve the research objectives of the study. Within this context, the study made use of a qualitative method for data collection and a quantitative method for data analysis. As such, a mixed methods approach was adopted. More specifically, a qualitative dominant mixed research method was implemented. A continuous word association test, which is a projective technique, was adopted as the qualitative means of data collection. This test involved asking participants to recall the words that come to mind when presented with the word “entrepreneur”. This method was selected because of its ability to reveal both affective and cognitive associations with the concept “entrepreneur”. A quantitative summative (manifest) content analysis was used as the quantitative research method for analysing the data. The continuous word association test was conducted among three sample groups, namely students prior to commencing, and students after completing a module in entrepreneurship, and small business owners. Student and small business owner participants were asked to write down as many words or phrases as possible that came to mind when they thought of the word “entrepreneur”, which was the stimulus word, within a ten-minute period. These responses were then collated and coded by developing a coding framework based on brand image and entrepreneurship literature. In studies on brand image, the components of image are considered to be tristructured in nature, consisting of cognitive (what the individual knows), affective (how the individual feels) and holistic (overall symbolism, combination of affective and cognitive) evaluations. The words generated by the participants in this study were broadly coded according to these categories and further subcategorised by searching for themes within the broad categories, which was facilitated and guided by an in-depth investigation of the entrepreneurship literature. The findings of this study show that the words generated by all three groups of participants were mostly of a cognitive nature, followed by words of a general or affective nature. As such, the vast majority of words generated by all three groups related to what the participants knew about an entrepreneur (cognitive) versus how they felt about one (affective), and were grounded in the management or entrepreneurship literature. When comparing the top ten words most frequently associated with the term “entrepreneur” by the three groups of participants, the attribute risk-taker was the most frequently recalled word among all three groups. Students prior to undertaking the entrepreneurship module associated an entrepreneur with being creative and a risk-taker, having a business enterprise and being involved in the selling of goods and services. Students after completing the module in entrepreneurship associated an entrepreneur with being profit-orientated, a risk-taker, innovative and original, and being opportunistic. Small business owners, on the other hand, associated an entrepreneur with being a risk-taker, innovative and original, goal- and achievement-orientated and profit-orientated. The findings show that all groups of participants associated an entrepreneur principally with certain attributes rather than with learned skills and competencies, and that all groups had a more positive than negative image of an entrepreneur. It was also found that exposure to entrepreneurship literature has an influence on the perception and image that students have of an entrepreneur. Because the words recalled by students after completing the entrepreneurship module were more in line with those recalled by small business owners, than with those recalled by students before starting the module, it can be suggested that entrepreneurship literature contributes to a more realistic image of an entrepreneur among students. This study has contributed to the field of entrepreneurship research by adopting a qualitative dominant research paradigm in conjunction with quantitative research methods to explore the complexity of the term “entrepreneur”. Furthermore, this study has been able to establish how individuals feel about entrepreneurship, in terms of being either positive or negative, by adding an affective aspect to the cognitive aspect of entrepreneurial decision-making. By conducting a continuous word association test among students prior to beginning and after completing a module in entrepreneurship, the entrepreneurial knowledge of students before being exposed to entrepreneurship literature was established, and subsequently the effectiveness of the entrepreneurship module determined. It is hoped that the findings of this study have added value to the entrepreneurship body of knowledge and can be used in future studies as a tool to address the problem of low entrepreneurial intention and activity among South Africans. Furthermore, it is hoped that by creating a positive image of an entrepreneur, entrepreneurship as a desirable career choice can be promoted and an entrepreneurial culture developed within communities and broader society.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Goliath, Jasmine Estonia
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Entrepreneurship -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Businesspeople -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9321 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020785
- Description: Entrepreneurship as a source of economic growth and competitiveness as well as job creation and the advancement of social interests is well documented. Despite these important contributions to the economies of countries, a shortage of entrepreneurial activity exists across borders and specifically in developing countries such as South Africa. The purpose of this study was to determine the perception and image of an entrepreneur in the eyes of various stakeholders. The reasoning behind this was that if the image of an entrepreneur could be determined, one could establish whether the image positively or negatively influences entrepreneurial intentions as well as potential future entrepreneurial activity. More specifically, the primary objective was to identify the perception and image that potential entrepreneurs (students) and existing entrepreneurs (small business owners) have of an entrepreneur. In the body of knowledge or general literature on entrepreneurship, the most commonly discussed topics are the nature and importance of entrepreneurship, the attributes (personality traits, characteristics and skills) associated with an entrepreneur, various push and pull factors, various rewards and drawbacks of such a career and the challenges entrepreneurs face. It is these aspects of entrepreneurship that stakeholders will most likely have been exposed to, and that most possibly have influenced their perception and image of an entrepreneur. The aforementioned aspects provided an overview of the theoretical body of knowledge on which the perception and image of an entrepreneur is based. The present study adopted a qualitative research paradigm with a phenomenological approach to achieve the research objectives of the study. Within this context, the study made use of a qualitative method for data collection and a quantitative method for data analysis. As such, a mixed methods approach was adopted. More specifically, a qualitative dominant mixed research method was implemented. A continuous word association test, which is a projective technique, was adopted as the qualitative means of data collection. This test involved asking participants to recall the words that come to mind when presented with the word “entrepreneur”. This method was selected because of its ability to reveal both affective and cognitive associations with the concept “entrepreneur”. A quantitative summative (manifest) content analysis was used as the quantitative research method for analysing the data. The continuous word association test was conducted among three sample groups, namely students prior to commencing, and students after completing a module in entrepreneurship, and small business owners. Student and small business owner participants were asked to write down as many words or phrases as possible that came to mind when they thought of the word “entrepreneur”, which was the stimulus word, within a ten-minute period. These responses were then collated and coded by developing a coding framework based on brand image and entrepreneurship literature. In studies on brand image, the components of image are considered to be tristructured in nature, consisting of cognitive (what the individual knows), affective (how the individual feels) and holistic (overall symbolism, combination of affective and cognitive) evaluations. The words generated by the participants in this study were broadly coded according to these categories and further subcategorised by searching for themes within the broad categories, which was facilitated and guided by an in-depth investigation of the entrepreneurship literature. The findings of this study show that the words generated by all three groups of participants were mostly of a cognitive nature, followed by words of a general or affective nature. As such, the vast majority of words generated by all three groups related to what the participants knew about an entrepreneur (cognitive) versus how they felt about one (affective), and were grounded in the management or entrepreneurship literature. When comparing the top ten words most frequently associated with the term “entrepreneur” by the three groups of participants, the attribute risk-taker was the most frequently recalled word among all three groups. Students prior to undertaking the entrepreneurship module associated an entrepreneur with being creative and a risk-taker, having a business enterprise and being involved in the selling of goods and services. Students after completing the module in entrepreneurship associated an entrepreneur with being profit-orientated, a risk-taker, innovative and original, and being opportunistic. Small business owners, on the other hand, associated an entrepreneur with being a risk-taker, innovative and original, goal- and achievement-orientated and profit-orientated. The findings show that all groups of participants associated an entrepreneur principally with certain attributes rather than with learned skills and competencies, and that all groups had a more positive than negative image of an entrepreneur. It was also found that exposure to entrepreneurship literature has an influence on the perception and image that students have of an entrepreneur. Because the words recalled by students after completing the entrepreneurship module were more in line with those recalled by small business owners, than with those recalled by students before starting the module, it can be suggested that entrepreneurship literature contributes to a more realistic image of an entrepreneur among students. This study has contributed to the field of entrepreneurship research by adopting a qualitative dominant research paradigm in conjunction with quantitative research methods to explore the complexity of the term “entrepreneur”. Furthermore, this study has been able to establish how individuals feel about entrepreneurship, in terms of being either positive or negative, by adding an affective aspect to the cognitive aspect of entrepreneurial decision-making. By conducting a continuous word association test among students prior to beginning and after completing a module in entrepreneurship, the entrepreneurial knowledge of students before being exposed to entrepreneurship literature was established, and subsequently the effectiveness of the entrepreneurship module determined. It is hoped that the findings of this study have added value to the entrepreneurship body of knowledge and can be used in future studies as a tool to address the problem of low entrepreneurial intention and activity among South Africans. Furthermore, it is hoped that by creating a positive image of an entrepreneur, entrepreneurship as a desirable career choice can be promoted and an entrepreneurial culture developed within communities and broader society.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
An econometric analysis of the impact of economic freedom on economic growth in the SADC
- Authors: Gorlach, Vsevolod Igorevich
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:8983 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1539 , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development
- Description: The conventional approach to increasing economic growth - increasing inputs, such as labour and capital, is not always possible. The wider, fundamental sources of economic growth need to be considered too. Foreign aid is a temporary lifeline and does not spur economic growth. Conversely, financial assistance negatively affects growth and can hamper development prospects. Economic freedom and economically freer countries have been associated with higher growth rates, higher per capita incomes, greater volumes of trade, prosperity and overall wellbeing. By improving their economic freedom, deregulating the economy and allowing economic freedom to prosper, countries can experience sustained GDP growth. Previous studies have shown that economic freedom and economic growth are exponentially related - and that by initially becoming freer, countires can increase their growth rates at higher rates. The main objective of the SADC is to achieve development and economic growth, to alleviate poverty and enhance the standard and quality of life for the peoples of Southern Africa. The SADC is attempting to achieve economic integration through macroeconomic convergence. A number of macroeconomic variables have been set to act as primary indicators. These include inflation, fiscal balance, public debt and the current account balance. By introducing the concept that economic freedom can lead to higher growth rates and being able to identify economic freedom, it makes it possible to investigate how the SADC can achieve its set goals by becoming freer. By investigating individual components that constitute the overall freedom index, it becomes possible to establish the relationship that exists between this viriable and economic growth. This will illustrate where deregulation and freedom are most effective and where policy decisions need to be highlighted. The 2008 economic crisis revealed that countries that decreased their economic freedom have fared worse than countries allowing freedom to prosper. Government fiscal stimulus has had no positive impact on growth rates; the negative effects of reducing economic freedom will onlky be fully seen in future years. However, the majority of the SADC countries showed a relatively strong fiscal stance during the recession. This study established whether that a positive relationship between economic freedom and economic growth in the SADC. Secondly, the direction of causality that economic freedom leads to economic growth. The findings reveal that economic freedom fosters economic growth in general, and for the SADC in particular. Empirical evidence has been found for the SADC; and the implications of becoming freer are more fully explained.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Gorlach, Vsevolod Igorevich
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:8983 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1539 , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development
- Description: The conventional approach to increasing economic growth - increasing inputs, such as labour and capital, is not always possible. The wider, fundamental sources of economic growth need to be considered too. Foreign aid is a temporary lifeline and does not spur economic growth. Conversely, financial assistance negatively affects growth and can hamper development prospects. Economic freedom and economically freer countries have been associated with higher growth rates, higher per capita incomes, greater volumes of trade, prosperity and overall wellbeing. By improving their economic freedom, deregulating the economy and allowing economic freedom to prosper, countries can experience sustained GDP growth. Previous studies have shown that economic freedom and economic growth are exponentially related - and that by initially becoming freer, countires can increase their growth rates at higher rates. The main objective of the SADC is to achieve development and economic growth, to alleviate poverty and enhance the standard and quality of life for the peoples of Southern Africa. The SADC is attempting to achieve economic integration through macroeconomic convergence. A number of macroeconomic variables have been set to act as primary indicators. These include inflation, fiscal balance, public debt and the current account balance. By introducing the concept that economic freedom can lead to higher growth rates and being able to identify economic freedom, it makes it possible to investigate how the SADC can achieve its set goals by becoming freer. By investigating individual components that constitute the overall freedom index, it becomes possible to establish the relationship that exists between this viriable and economic growth. This will illustrate where deregulation and freedom are most effective and where policy decisions need to be highlighted. The 2008 economic crisis revealed that countries that decreased their economic freedom have fared worse than countries allowing freedom to prosper. Government fiscal stimulus has had no positive impact on growth rates; the negative effects of reducing economic freedom will onlky be fully seen in future years. However, the majority of the SADC countries showed a relatively strong fiscal stance during the recession. This study established whether that a positive relationship between economic freedom and economic growth in the SADC. Secondly, the direction of causality that economic freedom leads to economic growth. The findings reveal that economic freedom fosters economic growth in general, and for the SADC in particular. Empirical evidence has been found for the SADC; and the implications of becoming freer are more fully explained.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
The relationship between electricity supply, power outages and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Energy consumption -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9024 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020069
- Description: The economic boom in South Africa following the 1994 democratisation led to increased welfare of the citizens and their purchasing power. This further resulted in increase in electricity consumption. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in electricity consumption leading to the 2008 shortage of electricity which nearly damaged the power generating circuit. The literature review has shown that electricity supply and consumption have a positive impact on economic growth. It further showed that employment enhances economic growth. Conversely, it showed that power outages negatively affect economic growth. The research serves to investigate the relationship between electricity supply and economic growth in South Africa and to examine the impact of power outages on economic growth. It also seeks to find the appropriate structure for electricity supply industry that will lead to increase in economic growth. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach was used to find the relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, power outages and employment using quarterly data from 2000 to 2012. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Johansen technique for the research because it uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long run relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. The ARDL technique is also suitable to use to test co-integration when a small sample data is used and does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger causality was also employed in the study to establish the causality between economic growth and electricity supply. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting, when dealing with an unconstrained model. The results from the ARDL bounds test showed that there is a long run relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, power outages and employment. Based on the causality tests, the findings showed a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply to economic growth. This implies that electricity supply affect economic growth in South Africa. The results further showed no causality flowing from economic growth to electricity supply which indicates that when economic growth is booming fewer funds are used for improvement of the electricity generation. Lastly, the results showed that power outages negatively affect economic growth in the long run. To sum up, electricity supply is an important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South Africa must put in place measures aimed at stimulating electricity supply. One of the measures aimed at increasing output of electricity is to unbundle the electricity sector. This process involves allowing entry of the Independent Power Producers (IPPs), Independent System Operator (ISO) and Regional Electricity Distributors (REDs). This will lead to increased supply of electricity and competitively lower prices of electricity. The study further recommends that renewable energy sources should be used to produce electricity instead of coal and nuclear fuels as they failed to produce enough electricity for the nation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Energy consumption -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9024 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020069
- Description: The economic boom in South Africa following the 1994 democratisation led to increased welfare of the citizens and their purchasing power. This further resulted in increase in electricity consumption. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in electricity consumption leading to the 2008 shortage of electricity which nearly damaged the power generating circuit. The literature review has shown that electricity supply and consumption have a positive impact on economic growth. It further showed that employment enhances economic growth. Conversely, it showed that power outages negatively affect economic growth. The research serves to investigate the relationship between electricity supply and economic growth in South Africa and to examine the impact of power outages on economic growth. It also seeks to find the appropriate structure for electricity supply industry that will lead to increase in economic growth. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach was used to find the relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, power outages and employment using quarterly data from 2000 to 2012. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Johansen technique for the research because it uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long run relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. The ARDL technique is also suitable to use to test co-integration when a small sample data is used and does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger causality was also employed in the study to establish the causality between economic growth and electricity supply. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting, when dealing with an unconstrained model. The results from the ARDL bounds test showed that there is a long run relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, power outages and employment. Based on the causality tests, the findings showed a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply to economic growth. This implies that electricity supply affect economic growth in South Africa. The results further showed no causality flowing from economic growth to electricity supply which indicates that when economic growth is booming fewer funds are used for improvement of the electricity generation. Lastly, the results showed that power outages negatively affect economic growth in the long run. To sum up, electricity supply is an important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South Africa must put in place measures aimed at stimulating electricity supply. One of the measures aimed at increasing output of electricity is to unbundle the electricity sector. This process involves allowing entry of the Independent Power Producers (IPPs), Independent System Operator (ISO) and Regional Electricity Distributors (REDs). This will lead to increased supply of electricity and competitively lower prices of electricity. The study further recommends that renewable energy sources should be used to produce electricity instead of coal and nuclear fuels as they failed to produce enough electricity for the nation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The yield curve as a forecasting tool : does the yield spread predict recessions in South Africa?
- Authors: Khomo, Melvin Muzi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1040 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722 , Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Khomo, Melvin Muzi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1040 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722 , Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
Learnership program's effectiveness at an FET college
- Lekhelebana, Letlatsa George
- Authors: Lekhelebana, Letlatsa George
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Vocational education , Skilled labor -- South Africa , Unemployment -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Universities and colleges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:8870 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020314
- Description: High levels of unemployment and skills shortages in key parts of the South African economy are well documented. The failure of the South African economy to absorb new entrants to the job market is also well documented. The paradox of an economy that was growing for over a decade during the late nineties and early 2000s creating a lot of vacancies and yet at the same time seeing ever growing levels of unemployment numbers also makes for interesting reading. Learnership programs are intended to address this situation by reducing the problem of skills shortages and leading in the human capital development that is aligned to industry needs. Thus is the purpose of this study to determine whether the beneficiaries of the learnership programs, the graduates, find benefit from having completed these learnership programs. It is to evaluate whether they find the program to have been effective in either equipping them sufficiently to improve prospects of finding permanent employment or successfully starting their own businesses. An extensive literature study of the history of the FET and its development, the concept of learnership and legislation and statutes applicable to the sector in South Africa was undertaken so that the skills development initiatives in the country are contextualised. The empirical part of the study involved a self-constructed questionnaire designed to illicit perspectives of the FET training and learnership within the FET graduate population that have completed their studies at an FET institution within Nelson Mandela Bay. The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find the training to be effective and confirm the literature findings that learnerships can improve the issue of skills shortage in industry. The study makes recommendations that encompass work-based strategies and training based strategies to further improve the program. The recommendations are targeted at the FET college, the work-place training providers and the MERSETA and are meant solely to assist the organisations in overcoming the identified challenges emanating from learnership implementation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Lekhelebana, Letlatsa George
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Vocational education , Skilled labor -- South Africa , Unemployment -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Universities and colleges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:8870 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020314
- Description: High levels of unemployment and skills shortages in key parts of the South African economy are well documented. The failure of the South African economy to absorb new entrants to the job market is also well documented. The paradox of an economy that was growing for over a decade during the late nineties and early 2000s creating a lot of vacancies and yet at the same time seeing ever growing levels of unemployment numbers also makes for interesting reading. Learnership programs are intended to address this situation by reducing the problem of skills shortages and leading in the human capital development that is aligned to industry needs. Thus is the purpose of this study to determine whether the beneficiaries of the learnership programs, the graduates, find benefit from having completed these learnership programs. It is to evaluate whether they find the program to have been effective in either equipping them sufficiently to improve prospects of finding permanent employment or successfully starting their own businesses. An extensive literature study of the history of the FET and its development, the concept of learnership and legislation and statutes applicable to the sector in South Africa was undertaken so that the skills development initiatives in the country are contextualised. The empirical part of the study involved a self-constructed questionnaire designed to illicit perspectives of the FET training and learnership within the FET graduate population that have completed their studies at an FET institution within Nelson Mandela Bay. The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find the training to be effective and confirm the literature findings that learnerships can improve the issue of skills shortage in industry. The study makes recommendations that encompass work-based strategies and training based strategies to further improve the program. The recommendations are targeted at the FET college, the work-place training providers and the MERSETA and are meant solely to assist the organisations in overcoming the identified challenges emanating from learnership implementation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Social movements and economic development in post apartheid South Africa: lessons from Latin America
- Authors: Makoni, Tinotenda Charity
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- , Social movements -- South Africa , Social movements -- Latin America , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76420 , vital:30561
- Description: The aim of this research is to bring the literature on political agency and economics together in an analysis of whether social movements can play an important role in economic development in post-apartheid South Africa. The entrenched discourse of sluggish growth and high inequality in post-apartheid South Africa can largely be attributed to the political decision to implement a neoliberal economic development orthodoxy. On the one hand, there is an urgent need to shift the economic development model to an alternate developmentalist model. However, no clearly articulated alternative developmental model has emerged. As a result, economically, South Africa is seemingly stuck. On the other hand, the selection of an economic development model and change in macroeconomic policies requires a political shift. Politically, formal politics has assumed the form of neoliberal democracy, characterised by a largely centralised state and the usurpation of the state and institutions by a national bourgeoisie. Social movements have emerged in response to the failure of neoliberalism to fulfil the promises of early post independent periods. They have been largely successful at highlighting the injustices and the inequalities in the country. However their ability to influence structural economic development has come into question. Firstly, social movements and their “politically destabilising distributive demands” have faced repression from the state as the state and institutions are aligned behind the interests of capital under a neoliberal democracy. Secondly, social movements in South Africa have been largely ideologically under-developed. They have been largely fragmented and tended to contest specific single issues rather than aiming to shift the deeper underlying systemic drivers behind the symptomatic immediate discomforts. The economic dimensions of such a shift are particularly unclear. This fragmentation and apparent lack of economic pragmatism make management or suppression of disruptive movements by the state relatively easy. The research uses a contrast between the Latin American social movements against a South African background in order to see what lessons South Africa can draw from social movements in Latin America. The Latin American case is cautiously more positive and provides comparably more sanguine lessons. In this way, this research seeks to construct a more comprehensive framework for the further study of social movements in South Africa and their potential impact on economic development in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Social movements and economic development in post apartheid South Africa: lessons from Latin America
- Authors: Makoni, Tinotenda Charity
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1991- , South Africa -- Politics and government -- 1994- , Social movements -- South Africa , Social movements -- Latin America , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76420 , vital:30561
- Description: The aim of this research is to bring the literature on political agency and economics together in an analysis of whether social movements can play an important role in economic development in post-apartheid South Africa. The entrenched discourse of sluggish growth and high inequality in post-apartheid South Africa can largely be attributed to the political decision to implement a neoliberal economic development orthodoxy. On the one hand, there is an urgent need to shift the economic development model to an alternate developmentalist model. However, no clearly articulated alternative developmental model has emerged. As a result, economically, South Africa is seemingly stuck. On the other hand, the selection of an economic development model and change in macroeconomic policies requires a political shift. Politically, formal politics has assumed the form of neoliberal democracy, characterised by a largely centralised state and the usurpation of the state and institutions by a national bourgeoisie. Social movements have emerged in response to the failure of neoliberalism to fulfil the promises of early post independent periods. They have been largely successful at highlighting the injustices and the inequalities in the country. However their ability to influence structural economic development has come into question. Firstly, social movements and their “politically destabilising distributive demands” have faced repression from the state as the state and institutions are aligned behind the interests of capital under a neoliberal democracy. Secondly, social movements in South Africa have been largely ideologically under-developed. They have been largely fragmented and tended to contest specific single issues rather than aiming to shift the deeper underlying systemic drivers behind the symptomatic immediate discomforts. The economic dimensions of such a shift are particularly unclear. This fragmentation and apparent lack of economic pragmatism make management or suppression of disruptive movements by the state relatively easy. The research uses a contrast between the Latin American social movements against a South African background in order to see what lessons South Africa can draw from social movements in Latin America. The Latin American case is cautiously more positive and provides comparably more sanguine lessons. In this way, this research seeks to construct a more comprehensive framework for the further study of social movements in South Africa and their potential impact on economic development in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Development finance institutions and sustainable economic development : a case of the idc South Africa
- Authors: Mare, Timothy
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48872 , vital:41166
- Description: The purpose of this research study is to assess the extent that the Industrial Development Cooperation (IDC) of South Africa a Development Finance Institution (DFI), has contributed to the sustainable economic development of South Africa. The objective is to quantify the impact that is attributed to the IDC’s activities in South Africa in terms of socio-economic development contributing to sustainable economic development. Social development is fundamentally important in contributing to the economic development of any country. The research constituted the collection and quantitative analysis of data using reports from the IDC. The social output index modelling developed by the World Bank was used to analyse the data and make conclusive arguments regarding the impact that the IDC was having on economic development. The findings indicate that the IDC significantly lends less comparatively to lower income groups thus resulting in a negative contribution in terms of social developmental goals. Further the analysis through social output index model suggests that the IDC in as far as socio-development is concerned did not contributing positively to sustainable economic development between 2014 and 2018 reporting periods. The following recommendations are suggested: Increase awareness about the real impact of each investment across the IDC group, this will ensure that all proposals for investment are assessed with a component focusing on a socio-developmental perspective; reduce the number of mandates that the IDC currently has and establish broader frameworks for DFIs regardless of which government is in power or control.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mare, Timothy
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48872 , vital:41166
- Description: The purpose of this research study is to assess the extent that the Industrial Development Cooperation (IDC) of South Africa a Development Finance Institution (DFI), has contributed to the sustainable economic development of South Africa. The objective is to quantify the impact that is attributed to the IDC’s activities in South Africa in terms of socio-economic development contributing to sustainable economic development. Social development is fundamentally important in contributing to the economic development of any country. The research constituted the collection and quantitative analysis of data using reports from the IDC. The social output index modelling developed by the World Bank was used to analyse the data and make conclusive arguments regarding the impact that the IDC was having on economic development. The findings indicate that the IDC significantly lends less comparatively to lower income groups thus resulting in a negative contribution in terms of social developmental goals. Further the analysis through social output index model suggests that the IDC in as far as socio-development is concerned did not contributing positively to sustainable economic development between 2014 and 2018 reporting periods. The following recommendations are suggested: Increase awareness about the real impact of each investment across the IDC group, this will ensure that all proposals for investment are assessed with a component focusing on a socio-developmental perspective; reduce the number of mandates that the IDC currently has and establish broader frameworks for DFIs regardless of which government is in power or control.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The impact of crime in socio-economic development of Mdantsane township
- Authors: Matyeni, Bukelwa Wendy
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Crime -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Criminal behavior , Criminal justice, Administration of -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9204 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020425
- Description: This study examined the impact of crime on socio-economic development in Mdantsane Township which is an urban area under Buffalo city Municipality. The study is concerned with the growing rate of crime, which is perceived to have affected community development. A survey was conducted for this study and questionnaires were administered for data collection. The study found that Mdantsane area is fraught with problems of high unemployment, high crime levels and lack of physical infrastructure. It was shown that the levels of crime like robbery and assault cases are the order of the day. Many crimes are committed either during the day or at night. This study made several recommendations relating to what should be done to ensure that local residents, potential developers and investors feel safe in Mdantsane. Amongst other recommendations put forward are the establishment of community relations with the police, namely community policing forums (CPFs) and development community safety centres.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Matyeni, Bukelwa Wendy
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Crime -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Criminal behavior , Criminal justice, Administration of -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9204 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020425
- Description: This study examined the impact of crime on socio-economic development in Mdantsane Township which is an urban area under Buffalo city Municipality. The study is concerned with the growing rate of crime, which is perceived to have affected community development. A survey was conducted for this study and questionnaires were administered for data collection. The study found that Mdantsane area is fraught with problems of high unemployment, high crime levels and lack of physical infrastructure. It was shown that the levels of crime like robbery and assault cases are the order of the day. Many crimes are committed either during the day or at night. This study made several recommendations relating to what should be done to ensure that local residents, potential developers and investors feel safe in Mdantsane. Amongst other recommendations put forward are the establishment of community relations with the police, namely community policing forums (CPFs) and development community safety centres.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth: evidence from South Africa
- Authors: Mazenda, Adrino
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: International Monetary Fund , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , International finance , Finance -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11462 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007027 , International Monetary Fund , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , International finance , Finance -- Developing countries
- Description: Foreign direct investment amongst other mechanisms provides capital inflow meant to stimulate economic growth. Apart from promoting economic growth, FDI can also lead to increase in employment, technology, technical knowhow and managerial skills. South Africa has implemented various policy initiatives in attempts to attract foreign investment. This study investigates on the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, with particular reference to the South African economy. The period of study is from 1980 to 2010. The study begins by reviewing literature on economic growth and foreign direct investment. South Africa’s macroeconomic background is examined to determine the trends in FDI inflows and economic growth. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of FDI on economic growth is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. Variables specified in the methodology include real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (INVE), real exchange rate (REXCH) and foreign marketable debt (DEBT). The long run results showed that FDI, REXCH and DEBT have a negative impact on growth. INVE has a positive impact on growth. Short run results indicated that there is no strong pressure on RGDP to restore long-run equilibrium whenever there is a disturbance. The short run lag of FDI was found to exert a positive impact on growth. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis complemented the long and short-run findings. Shocks on REXCH, and DEBT generated a negative response on RGDP. The shocks were not significantly different from zero and were transitory. Results from the variance decomposition analysis revealed that the fundamentals explain some, but not all, of the variations of RGDP. For the fifth year forecast error variance RGDP explains the largest component of the variation followed by INVE, REXCH, FDI and DEBT. After a period of ten years, the influence of RGDP and INVE declines, whereas REXCH, FDI and DEBT increase. Conclusions and policy recommendations were made using these results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mazenda, Adrino
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: International Monetary Fund , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , International finance , Finance -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11462 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007027 , International Monetary Fund , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , International finance , Finance -- Developing countries
- Description: Foreign direct investment amongst other mechanisms provides capital inflow meant to stimulate economic growth. Apart from promoting economic growth, FDI can also lead to increase in employment, technology, technical knowhow and managerial skills. South Africa has implemented various policy initiatives in attempts to attract foreign investment. This study investigates on the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, with particular reference to the South African economy. The period of study is from 1980 to 2010. The study begins by reviewing literature on economic growth and foreign direct investment. South Africa’s macroeconomic background is examined to determine the trends in FDI inflows and economic growth. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of FDI on economic growth is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. Variables specified in the methodology include real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (INVE), real exchange rate (REXCH) and foreign marketable debt (DEBT). The long run results showed that FDI, REXCH and DEBT have a negative impact on growth. INVE has a positive impact on growth. Short run results indicated that there is no strong pressure on RGDP to restore long-run equilibrium whenever there is a disturbance. The short run lag of FDI was found to exert a positive impact on growth. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis complemented the long and short-run findings. Shocks on REXCH, and DEBT generated a negative response on RGDP. The shocks were not significantly different from zero and were transitory. Results from the variance decomposition analysis revealed that the fundamentals explain some, but not all, of the variations of RGDP. For the fifth year forecast error variance RGDP explains the largest component of the variation followed by INVE, REXCH, FDI and DEBT. After a period of ten years, the influence of RGDP and INVE declines, whereas REXCH, FDI and DEBT increase. Conclusions and policy recommendations were made using these results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Government size, labour productivity and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Mbaleki, Chuma Innocent
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48915 , vital:41170
- Description: This study investigates short-run and long-run effects of fiscal consolidation on labour productivity in South Africa using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration. We use quarterly data collected in the period of 1994Q3 to 2017Q1. We disaggregate government expenditure as well as revenue and find a positive and significant long run relationship between revenue variables and labour productivity. This relationship is also positive and significant in the short run except for net tax variable, which seems to be growth contractive. The results further suggest a positive and significant long run relationship between government expenditure on health, public safety and order, culture and recreation as well as education and labour productivity. Government expenditure on education and health variables are also positive and significant in the short run, whilst expenditure on defense is negative and not significant both in the short run and long run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mbaleki, Chuma Innocent
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48915 , vital:41170
- Description: This study investigates short-run and long-run effects of fiscal consolidation on labour productivity in South Africa using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of cointegration. We use quarterly data collected in the period of 1994Q3 to 2017Q1. We disaggregate government expenditure as well as revenue and find a positive and significant long run relationship between revenue variables and labour productivity. This relationship is also positive and significant in the short run except for net tax variable, which seems to be growth contractive. The results further suggest a positive and significant long run relationship between government expenditure on health, public safety and order, culture and recreation as well as education and labour productivity. Government expenditure on education and health variables are also positive and significant in the short run, whilst expenditure on defense is negative and not significant both in the short run and long run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
An assessment of inland fisheries in South Africa using fisheries-dependent and fisheries-independent data sources
- Authors: McCafferty, James Ross
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Fisheries -- South Africa , Fishery management -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Food security -- South Africa , Poverty -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Fishing -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Catch effort -- South Africa , Fish stock assessment -- South Africa , Fish populations -- South Africa , Linear models (Statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5229 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005072 , Fisheries -- South Africa , Fishery management -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Food security -- South Africa , Poverty -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Fishing -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Catch effort -- South Africa , Fish stock assessment -- South Africa , Fish populations -- South Africa , Linear models (Statistics)
- Description: The role of inland fisheries as contributors to local and national economies in developing African countries is well documented. In South Africa, there is increasing interest in inland fisheries as vehicles for achieving national policy objectives including food security, livelihoods provision, poverty alleviation and economic development but there is surprisingly little literature on the history, current status, and potential of inland fishery resources. This lack of knowledge constrains the development of management strategies for ensuring the biological sustainability of these resources and the economic and social sustainability of the people that are dependent on them. In order to contribute to the knowledge base of inland fisheries in South Africa this thesis: (1) presents an exhaustive review of the available literature on inland fisheries in South Africa; (2) describes the organisation of recreational anglers (the primary users of the resource); (3) compiles recreational angling catch records and scientific gill net survey data, and assesses the applicability of these data for providing estimates of fish abundance (catch-per-unit effort [CPUE]); and finally, (4) determines the potential for models of fish abundance using morphometric, edaphic, and climatic factors. The literature review highlighted the data-poor nature of South African inland fisheries. In particular information on harvest rates was lacking. A lack of knowledge regarding different inland fishery sectors, governance systems, and potential user conflicts was also found. Recreational anglers were identified as the dominant user group and catch data from this sector were identified as potential sources of fish abundance and harvest information. Formal freshwater recreational angling in South Africa is a highly organised, multi-faceted activity which is based primarily on angling for non-native species, particularly common carp Cyprinus carpio and largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides. Bank anglers constituted the largest number of formal participants (5 309 anglers affiliated to formal angling organisations) followed by bass anglers (1 184 anglers affiliated to formal angling organisations). The highly structured nature of organised recreational angling and dominant utilisation of inland fisheries resources by this sector illustrated not only the vested interest of anglers in the management and development of inland fisheries but also the role that anglers may play in future decision-making and monitoring through the dissemination of catch data from organised angling events. Generalised linear models (GLMs) and generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to standardise CPUE estimates from bass- and bank angling catch records, which provided the most suitable data, and to determine environmental variables which most influenced capture probabilities and CPUE. Capture probabilities and CPUE for bass were influenced primarily by altitude and conductivity and multiple regression analysis revealed that predictive models incorporating altitude, conductivity, surface area and capacity explained significant (p<0.05) amounts of variability in CPUE (53%), probability of capture (49%) and probability of limit bag (74%). Bank angling CPUE was influenced by conductivity, surface area and rainfall although an insignificant (p>0.05) amount of variability (63%) was explained by a predictive model incorporating these variables as investigations were constrained by small sample sizes and aggregated catch information. Scientific survey data provided multi-species information and highlighted the high proportion of non-native fish species in Eastern Cape impoundments. Gillnet catches were influenced primarily by species composition and were less subject to fluctuations induced by environmental factors. Overall standardised gillnet CPUE was influenced by surface area, conductivity and age of impoundment. Although the model fit was not significant at the p<0.05 level, 23% of the variability in the data was explained by a predictive model incorporating these variables. The presence of species which could be effectively targeted by gillnets was hypothesised to represent the most important factor influencing catch rates. Investigation of factors influencing CPUE in impoundments dominated by Clarias gariepinus and native cyprinids indicated that warmer, younger impoundments and smaller, colder impoundments produced higher catches of C. gariepinus and native cyprinids respectively. A predictive model for C. gariepinus abundance explained a significant amount of variability (77%) in CPUE although the small sample size of impoundments suggests that predictions from this model may not be robust. CPUE of native cyprinids was influenced primarily by the presence of Labeo umbratus and constrained by small sample size of impoundments and the model did not adequately explain the variability in the data (r² = 0.31, p>0.05). These results indicate that angling catch- and scientific survey data can be useful in providing predictions of fish abundance that are biologically realistic. However, more data over a greater spatial scale would allow for more robust predictions of catch rates. This could be achieved through increased monitoring of existing resource users, the creation of a centralised database for catch records from angling competitions, and increased scientific surveys of South African impoundments conducted by a dedicated governmental function.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: McCafferty, James Ross
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Fisheries -- South Africa , Fishery management -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Food security -- South Africa , Poverty -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Fishing -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Catch effort -- South Africa , Fish stock assessment -- South Africa , Fish populations -- South Africa , Linear models (Statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5229 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005072 , Fisheries -- South Africa , Fishery management -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Food security -- South Africa , Poverty -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Fishing -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Catch effort -- South Africa , Fish stock assessment -- South Africa , Fish populations -- South Africa , Linear models (Statistics)
- Description: The role of inland fisheries as contributors to local and national economies in developing African countries is well documented. In South Africa, there is increasing interest in inland fisheries as vehicles for achieving national policy objectives including food security, livelihoods provision, poverty alleviation and economic development but there is surprisingly little literature on the history, current status, and potential of inland fishery resources. This lack of knowledge constrains the development of management strategies for ensuring the biological sustainability of these resources and the economic and social sustainability of the people that are dependent on them. In order to contribute to the knowledge base of inland fisheries in South Africa this thesis: (1) presents an exhaustive review of the available literature on inland fisheries in South Africa; (2) describes the organisation of recreational anglers (the primary users of the resource); (3) compiles recreational angling catch records and scientific gill net survey data, and assesses the applicability of these data for providing estimates of fish abundance (catch-per-unit effort [CPUE]); and finally, (4) determines the potential for models of fish abundance using morphometric, edaphic, and climatic factors. The literature review highlighted the data-poor nature of South African inland fisheries. In particular information on harvest rates was lacking. A lack of knowledge regarding different inland fishery sectors, governance systems, and potential user conflicts was also found. Recreational anglers were identified as the dominant user group and catch data from this sector were identified as potential sources of fish abundance and harvest information. Formal freshwater recreational angling in South Africa is a highly organised, multi-faceted activity which is based primarily on angling for non-native species, particularly common carp Cyprinus carpio and largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides. Bank anglers constituted the largest number of formal participants (5 309 anglers affiliated to formal angling organisations) followed by bass anglers (1 184 anglers affiliated to formal angling organisations). The highly structured nature of organised recreational angling and dominant utilisation of inland fisheries resources by this sector illustrated not only the vested interest of anglers in the management and development of inland fisheries but also the role that anglers may play in future decision-making and monitoring through the dissemination of catch data from organised angling events. Generalised linear models (GLMs) and generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to standardise CPUE estimates from bass- and bank angling catch records, which provided the most suitable data, and to determine environmental variables which most influenced capture probabilities and CPUE. Capture probabilities and CPUE for bass were influenced primarily by altitude and conductivity and multiple regression analysis revealed that predictive models incorporating altitude, conductivity, surface area and capacity explained significant (p<0.05) amounts of variability in CPUE (53%), probability of capture (49%) and probability of limit bag (74%). Bank angling CPUE was influenced by conductivity, surface area and rainfall although an insignificant (p>0.05) amount of variability (63%) was explained by a predictive model incorporating these variables as investigations were constrained by small sample sizes and aggregated catch information. Scientific survey data provided multi-species information and highlighted the high proportion of non-native fish species in Eastern Cape impoundments. Gillnet catches were influenced primarily by species composition and were less subject to fluctuations induced by environmental factors. Overall standardised gillnet CPUE was influenced by surface area, conductivity and age of impoundment. Although the model fit was not significant at the p<0.05 level, 23% of the variability in the data was explained by a predictive model incorporating these variables. The presence of species which could be effectively targeted by gillnets was hypothesised to represent the most important factor influencing catch rates. Investigation of factors influencing CPUE in impoundments dominated by Clarias gariepinus and native cyprinids indicated that warmer, younger impoundments and smaller, colder impoundments produced higher catches of C. gariepinus and native cyprinids respectively. A predictive model for C. gariepinus abundance explained a significant amount of variability (77%) in CPUE although the small sample size of impoundments suggests that predictions from this model may not be robust. CPUE of native cyprinids was influenced primarily by the presence of Labeo umbratus and constrained by small sample size of impoundments and the model did not adequately explain the variability in the data (r² = 0.31, p>0.05). These results indicate that angling catch- and scientific survey data can be useful in providing predictions of fish abundance that are biologically realistic. However, more data over a greater spatial scale would allow for more robust predictions of catch rates. This could be achieved through increased monitoring of existing resource users, the creation of a centralised database for catch records from angling competitions, and increased scientific surveys of South African impoundments conducted by a dedicated governmental function.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Financial development and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Mhango, Joseph
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41117 , vital:36358
- Description: Since the identification of financial development for economic growth by Schumpeter (1911), the importance of financial development has been emphasised. However, the nature of the relationship is unclear, whether financial development is demand-following, supply-leading, feedback relationship or no causal relationship with economic growth. The revolution of the relationship between finance and economic growth has left a void of the exact nature of the relationship and importance of financial development in literature and empirical evidence. In addition, the variation of the nexus between financial development and economic growth in developed and developing countries has left policy makers uncertain on the exact policy to employ. In awe of this, after the discovery of diamonds and gold in South Africa, policy makers have attempted to improve the access, depth and efficiency of the finance sector to spur economic growth. However, South Africa has been subject to apartheid, low economic growth, global financial crises, international sanctions, unemployment and other challenges to the finance sector. In light of this, this study aims to empirically investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The study used the recently developed financial institutions index and financial markets index by the International Monetary Fund to represent bank-based and market-based financial development. This study utilises annual data over the period 1980 to 2014. The study applied the Autoregressive Disturbed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger – Causality, Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition to uncover the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The ARDL was selected over the Johansen Cointegration because the variables can be I (1) or I(0) before carrying out the bounds testing. It is more suitable to a small sample size. It uses a reduced form equation, and it provides unbiased estimates of the long-run model. Lastly, it can be transformed into an error correction model. The VECM Granger-Causality was chosen because it represents the short-run and long-run causalities. After selection of the optimal lag, the ARDL bounds testing shows that economic growth, bank-based financial development, market-based financial development, savings and investment have a long-run relationship in South Africa. However, after estimation of the coefficients, financial development has a positive relationship with economic growth, but insignificant and only savings and investment were significant in determining long-run economic growth. The VECM granger-causality results show that financial development (bank and market), savings and investment granger cause economic growth in the long-run. While, economic growth, market-based financial development, savings and investment granger cause bank-based financial development in the long-run. Therefore, a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in the long-run. In the short-run, it was clear that bank-based financial development positively causes economic growth. The causality results show that a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in South Africa in the short-run as well. The IRF shows that a shock in economic growth negatively and positively affects bank based and market-based financial development respectively. A shock in bank-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Lastly, a shock in market-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Whilst, the variance decomposition shows that fluctuations in economic growth are increasingly explained by financial development (bank and market). While, fluctuations in bank-based financial development are increasingly explained by market-based financial development, savings and investment. The fluctuations in market-based financial development are increasingly caused by economic growth, savings and investment. It is recommended that policy makers utilise bank-based financial development for economic growth and reduced unemployment, to increase savings for long-run economic growth. Furthermore, challenges against market-based financial development should be reduced in order to create a positive relationship between investment and economic growth in the long run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mhango, Joseph
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/41117 , vital:36358
- Description: Since the identification of financial development for economic growth by Schumpeter (1911), the importance of financial development has been emphasised. However, the nature of the relationship is unclear, whether financial development is demand-following, supply-leading, feedback relationship or no causal relationship with economic growth. The revolution of the relationship between finance and economic growth has left a void of the exact nature of the relationship and importance of financial development in literature and empirical evidence. In addition, the variation of the nexus between financial development and economic growth in developed and developing countries has left policy makers uncertain on the exact policy to employ. In awe of this, after the discovery of diamonds and gold in South Africa, policy makers have attempted to improve the access, depth and efficiency of the finance sector to spur economic growth. However, South Africa has been subject to apartheid, low economic growth, global financial crises, international sanctions, unemployment and other challenges to the finance sector. In light of this, this study aims to empirically investigate the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The study used the recently developed financial institutions index and financial markets index by the International Monetary Fund to represent bank-based and market-based financial development. This study utilises annual data over the period 1980 to 2014. The study applied the Autoregressive Disturbed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger – Causality, Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition to uncover the relationship between financial development and economic growth in South Africa. The ARDL was selected over the Johansen Cointegration because the variables can be I (1) or I(0) before carrying out the bounds testing. It is more suitable to a small sample size. It uses a reduced form equation, and it provides unbiased estimates of the long-run model. Lastly, it can be transformed into an error correction model. The VECM Granger-Causality was chosen because it represents the short-run and long-run causalities. After selection of the optimal lag, the ARDL bounds testing shows that economic growth, bank-based financial development, market-based financial development, savings and investment have a long-run relationship in South Africa. However, after estimation of the coefficients, financial development has a positive relationship with economic growth, but insignificant and only savings and investment were significant in determining long-run economic growth. The VECM granger-causality results show that financial development (bank and market), savings and investment granger cause economic growth in the long-run. While, economic growth, market-based financial development, savings and investment granger cause bank-based financial development in the long-run. Therefore, a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in the long-run. In the short-run, it was clear that bank-based financial development positively causes economic growth. The causality results show that a feedback relationship exists between bank-based financial development and economic growth in South Africa in the short-run as well. The IRF shows that a shock in economic growth negatively and positively affects bank based and market-based financial development respectively. A shock in bank-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Lastly, a shock in market-based financial development causes a positive effect on economic growth. Whilst, the variance decomposition shows that fluctuations in economic growth are increasingly explained by financial development (bank and market). While, fluctuations in bank-based financial development are increasingly explained by market-based financial development, savings and investment. The fluctuations in market-based financial development are increasingly caused by economic growth, savings and investment. It is recommended that policy makers utilise bank-based financial development for economic growth and reduced unemployment, to increase savings for long-run economic growth. Furthermore, challenges against market-based financial development should be reduced in order to create a positive relationship between investment and economic growth in the long run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019