Statistical analyses of artificial waterpoints: their effect on the herbaceous and woody structure composition within the Kruger National Park
- Authors: Goodall, Victoria Lucy
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: South African National Parks , Ecology -- Statistical methods , Regression analysis , Log-linear models , Game reserves -- South Africa , Kruger National Park (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5570 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002810 , South African National Parks , Ecology -- Statistical methods , Regression analysis , Log-linear models , Game reserves -- South Africa , Kruger National Park (South Africa)
- Description: The objective of this project is to link the statistical theory used in the ecological sciences with an actual project that was developed for the South African National Parks Scientific Services. It investigates the changes that have occurred in the herbaceous and woody structure due to the closure of artificial waterpoints; including the impacts that elephants and other herbivores have on the vegetation of the Kruger National Park. This project was designed in conjunction with South African National Parks (SANP) Scientific Services and it is a registered project with this department. The results of this project will be submitted to Scientific Services in accordance with the terms and conditions of a SANP research project. A major concern within the KNP is the declining numbers of rare antelope and numerous projects have been developed to investigate possible ways of halting this decline and thus protecting the heterogeneity of the Kruger National Park. Three different datasets were investigated, covering three aspects of vegetation structure and composition within the KNP. The first investigated the changes that have occurred since the N'washitsumbe enclosure in the Far Northern KNP was fenced off from the rest of the park. The results show that over the 40 years since the enclosure was built, changes have occurred which have resulted in a significant difference in the abundance of Increaser 2 and Decreaser grass species between the inside and the outside of the enclosure. Increaser 2 and Decreaser categories are the result of a grass species classification depending on whether the species thrives or is depressed by heavy grazing. The difference in grass species composition and structure between the inside and the outside of the enclosure indicates that the grazing animals within the KNP have influenced the grass composition in a way that favours the dominant animals. This has resulted in a declining roan antelope population - one of the species that is considered as a 'rare antelope'. Many artificial waterpoints (boreholes and dams) have also been closed throughout the KNP in the hope of resulting in a change in vegetation structure and composition in favour of the roan. Veld condition assessment data for 87 boreholes throughout the Park was analyzed to determine whether the veld in the vicinity is beginning to change towards a more Decreaser dominated sward which would favour the roan. The results were analyzed for the different regions of the Park; and they indicate that changes are becoming evident; however, the results are not particularly conclusive, yet. The majority of the boreholes were closed between 1994 and 1998 which means that not a lot of data were available to be analyzed. A similar study conducted in another 10 years time might reveal more meaningful results. However the results are moving in the direction hoped for by the management of the KNP. The results show that the grass composition has a higher proportion of Decreaser grasses since the closure of the waterpoints, and the grass biomass around these areas has also improved. The results were analyzed on an individual basis; and then on a regional basis as the minimal data meant that the individual analyses did not provide any significant results. A third study was then done on the impact that the rapidly increasing elephant population on the vegetation within the Riparian zone along three rivers in the Far Northern region of the KNP. The riparian zone is an important part of the landscape, in terms of providing food for many animals as well as shade. The elephant population has increased substantially since the termination of the culling program and this means that the feeding requirements of the population has increased which could result in severe damage upon the vegetation, as elephants can be very destructive feeders. The results show surprising differences between the three years of data that were analyzed; however the results indicate that the elephants are targeting specific height ranges of trees when feeding; however they do not seem to consistently target specific tree species. This is positive for the diversity of the Riparian zone as this region is very important both ecologically and aesthetically for the tourists who visit the Park.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Goodall, Victoria Lucy
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: South African National Parks , Ecology -- Statistical methods , Regression analysis , Log-linear models , Game reserves -- South Africa , Kruger National Park (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5570 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002810 , South African National Parks , Ecology -- Statistical methods , Regression analysis , Log-linear models , Game reserves -- South Africa , Kruger National Park (South Africa)
- Description: The objective of this project is to link the statistical theory used in the ecological sciences with an actual project that was developed for the South African National Parks Scientific Services. It investigates the changes that have occurred in the herbaceous and woody structure due to the closure of artificial waterpoints; including the impacts that elephants and other herbivores have on the vegetation of the Kruger National Park. This project was designed in conjunction with South African National Parks (SANP) Scientific Services and it is a registered project with this department. The results of this project will be submitted to Scientific Services in accordance with the terms and conditions of a SANP research project. A major concern within the KNP is the declining numbers of rare antelope and numerous projects have been developed to investigate possible ways of halting this decline and thus protecting the heterogeneity of the Kruger National Park. Three different datasets were investigated, covering three aspects of vegetation structure and composition within the KNP. The first investigated the changes that have occurred since the N'washitsumbe enclosure in the Far Northern KNP was fenced off from the rest of the park. The results show that over the 40 years since the enclosure was built, changes have occurred which have resulted in a significant difference in the abundance of Increaser 2 and Decreaser grass species between the inside and the outside of the enclosure. Increaser 2 and Decreaser categories are the result of a grass species classification depending on whether the species thrives or is depressed by heavy grazing. The difference in grass species composition and structure between the inside and the outside of the enclosure indicates that the grazing animals within the KNP have influenced the grass composition in a way that favours the dominant animals. This has resulted in a declining roan antelope population - one of the species that is considered as a 'rare antelope'. Many artificial waterpoints (boreholes and dams) have also been closed throughout the KNP in the hope of resulting in a change in vegetation structure and composition in favour of the roan. Veld condition assessment data for 87 boreholes throughout the Park was analyzed to determine whether the veld in the vicinity is beginning to change towards a more Decreaser dominated sward which would favour the roan. The results were analyzed for the different regions of the Park; and they indicate that changes are becoming evident; however, the results are not particularly conclusive, yet. The majority of the boreholes were closed between 1994 and 1998 which means that not a lot of data were available to be analyzed. A similar study conducted in another 10 years time might reveal more meaningful results. However the results are moving in the direction hoped for by the management of the KNP. The results show that the grass composition has a higher proportion of Decreaser grasses since the closure of the waterpoints, and the grass biomass around these areas has also improved. The results were analyzed on an individual basis; and then on a regional basis as the minimal data meant that the individual analyses did not provide any significant results. A third study was then done on the impact that the rapidly increasing elephant population on the vegetation within the Riparian zone along three rivers in the Far Northern region of the KNP. The riparian zone is an important part of the landscape, in terms of providing food for many animals as well as shade. The elephant population has increased substantially since the termination of the culling program and this means that the feeding requirements of the population has increased which could result in severe damage upon the vegetation, as elephants can be very destructive feeders. The results show surprising differences between the three years of data that were analyzed; however the results indicate that the elephants are targeting specific height ranges of trees when feeding; however they do not seem to consistently target specific tree species. This is positive for the diversity of the Riparian zone as this region is very important both ecologically and aesthetically for the tourists who visit the Park.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
Maximization of power in randomized clinical trials using the minimization treatment allocation technique
- Authors: Marange, Chioneso Show
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Clinical trials -- Statistical methods , Statistical hypothesis testing , Regression analysis , Logistic distribution , Estimation theory
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc (Biostatistics and Epidemiology)
- Identifier: vital:11777 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/399 , Clinical trials -- Statistical methods , Statistical hypothesis testing , Regression analysis , Logistic distribution , Estimation theory
- Description: Generally the primary goal of randomized clinical trials (RCT) is to make comparisons among two or more treatments hence clinical investigators require the most appropriate treatment allocation procedure to yield reliable results regardless of whether the ultimate data suggest a clinically important difference between the treatments being studied. Although recommended by many researchers, the utilization of minimization has been seldom reported in randomized trials mainly because of the controversy surrounding the statistical efficiency in detecting treatment effect and its complexity in implementation. Methods: A SAS simulation code was designed for allocating patients into two different treatment groups. Categorical prognostic factors were used together with multi-level response variables and demonstration of how simulation of data can help to determine the power of the minimization technique was carried out using ordinal logistic regression models. Results: Several scenarios were simulated in this study. Within the selected scenarios, increasing the sample size significantly increased the power of detecting the treatment effect. This was contrary to the case when the probability of allocation was decreased. Power did not change when the probability of allocation given that the treatment groups are balanced was increased. The probability of allocation { } k P was seen to be the only one with a significant effect on treatment balance. Conclusion: Maximum power can be achieved with a sample of size 300 although a small sample of size 200 can be adequate to attain at least 80% power. In order to have maximum power, the probability of allocation should be fixed at 0.75 and set to 0.5 if the treatment groups are equally balanced.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
- Authors: Marange, Chioneso Show
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Clinical trials -- Statistical methods , Statistical hypothesis testing , Regression analysis , Logistic distribution , Estimation theory
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc (Biostatistics and Epidemiology)
- Identifier: vital:11777 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/399 , Clinical trials -- Statistical methods , Statistical hypothesis testing , Regression analysis , Logistic distribution , Estimation theory
- Description: Generally the primary goal of randomized clinical trials (RCT) is to make comparisons among two or more treatments hence clinical investigators require the most appropriate treatment allocation procedure to yield reliable results regardless of whether the ultimate data suggest a clinically important difference between the treatments being studied. Although recommended by many researchers, the utilization of minimization has been seldom reported in randomized trials mainly because of the controversy surrounding the statistical efficiency in detecting treatment effect and its complexity in implementation. Methods: A SAS simulation code was designed for allocating patients into two different treatment groups. Categorical prognostic factors were used together with multi-level response variables and demonstration of how simulation of data can help to determine the power of the minimization technique was carried out using ordinal logistic regression models. Results: Several scenarios were simulated in this study. Within the selected scenarios, increasing the sample size significantly increased the power of detecting the treatment effect. This was contrary to the case when the probability of allocation was decreased. Power did not change when the probability of allocation given that the treatment groups are balanced was increased. The probability of allocation { } k P was seen to be the only one with a significant effect on treatment balance. Conclusion: Maximum power can be achieved with a sample of size 300 although a small sample of size 200 can be adequate to attain at least 80% power. In order to have maximum power, the probability of allocation should be fixed at 0.75 and set to 0.5 if the treatment groups are equally balanced.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
Exchange rate volatility and the returns on diversified South African investment portfolios
- Authors: Mulamu, Murendeni
- Date: 2022-04-06
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates South Africa , Rate of return , Investments , GARCH model , Regression analysis , Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/284581 , vital:56076
- Description: Globalisation has made it much easier to invest in foreign countries. This creates endless options accessible to investors, including exploiting opportunities for investment in international economies. Although foreign investment portfolio diversification provides significant opportunities for financial returns, exchange rate volatility may play a prominent role when investing in foreign markets. Since the introduction of a floating exchange rate system, together with the inflation-targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa, there has been significant volatility in the exchange rate, far more than during the previous dispensations. This, however, creates a strong need to consider how the unpredictable nature of the exchange rate affects these investments. The purpose of this study is to analyse the effect of exchange rate volatility on the returns on diversified South African investment portfolios. This research examined whether there is a homogenous relationship between South African (domestic) portfolios and the internationally diversified portfolios. In addition, the study investigated the long-run relationship between the exchange rate volatility and both domestic portfolios and the internationally diversified portfolios for the period 2007-2019. To achieve these goals, a panel ARDL model was employed. This study found that exchange rate volatility does not account for a significant portion of returns on investment portfolios fluctuations. Moreover, the relationship is not homogenous because returns on domestic investment portfolios react positively to the exchange rate volatility, whereas returns international investment portfolios respond negatively/positively to the exchange rate volatility depending on whether the relationship is short or long run. This study will contribute to the existing literature, and it is important for investors intending to diversify their investment portfolios both domestically and internationally using different mutual funds in South Africa. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04-06
- Authors: Mulamu, Murendeni
- Date: 2022-04-06
- Subjects: Foreign exchange rates South Africa , Rate of return , Investments , GARCH model , Regression analysis , Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/284581 , vital:56076
- Description: Globalisation has made it much easier to invest in foreign countries. This creates endless options accessible to investors, including exploiting opportunities for investment in international economies. Although foreign investment portfolio diversification provides significant opportunities for financial returns, exchange rate volatility may play a prominent role when investing in foreign markets. Since the introduction of a floating exchange rate system, together with the inflation-targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa, there has been significant volatility in the exchange rate, far more than during the previous dispensations. This, however, creates a strong need to consider how the unpredictable nature of the exchange rate affects these investments. The purpose of this study is to analyse the effect of exchange rate volatility on the returns on diversified South African investment portfolios. This research examined whether there is a homogenous relationship between South African (domestic) portfolios and the internationally diversified portfolios. In addition, the study investigated the long-run relationship between the exchange rate volatility and both domestic portfolios and the internationally diversified portfolios for the period 2007-2019. To achieve these goals, a panel ARDL model was employed. This study found that exchange rate volatility does not account for a significant portion of returns on investment portfolios fluctuations. Moreover, the relationship is not homogenous because returns on domestic investment portfolios react positively to the exchange rate volatility, whereas returns international investment portfolios respond negatively/positively to the exchange rate volatility depending on whether the relationship is short or long run. This study will contribute to the existing literature, and it is important for investors intending to diversify their investment portfolios both domestically and internationally using different mutual funds in South Africa. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04-06
Expenditure analysis and planning in a changed economy: a case study approach of Gweru City Council, Zimbabwe
- Authors: Kuhudzai, Anesu G
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Economic development -- Zimbabwe , Poverty -- Zimbabwe , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc (Mathematical Statistics)
- Identifier: vital:11786 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1019780 , Economic development -- Zimbabwe , Poverty -- Zimbabwe , Regression analysis
- Description: The purpose of this study is to analyse Gweru City Council`s spending pattern and behaviour and to determine if this spending pattern is directed towards poverty reduction and economic development or not. Furthermore, to fit a log-differenced regression model to a historical financial dataset obtained from Gweru City Council Finance Department for the time period July 2009 to September 2012. Regression techniques were used to determine how Gweru City Council`s total income (dependent variable) is affected by its expenditure (independent variables). Econometric modeling techniques were employed for the evaluation of estimate tests, conducted to determine the reliability of the estimated model. The study concludes by providing some recommendations for possible financial plans which could be adopted by Gweru City Council and other local authorities in Zimbabwe for the well-being of Zimbabweans and economic development.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Kuhudzai, Anesu G
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Economic development -- Zimbabwe , Poverty -- Zimbabwe , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc (Mathematical Statistics)
- Identifier: vital:11786 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1019780 , Economic development -- Zimbabwe , Poverty -- Zimbabwe , Regression analysis
- Description: The purpose of this study is to analyse Gweru City Council`s spending pattern and behaviour and to determine if this spending pattern is directed towards poverty reduction and economic development or not. Furthermore, to fit a log-differenced regression model to a historical financial dataset obtained from Gweru City Council Finance Department for the time period July 2009 to September 2012. Regression techniques were used to determine how Gweru City Council`s total income (dependent variable) is affected by its expenditure (independent variables). Econometric modeling techniques were employed for the evaluation of estimate tests, conducted to determine the reliability of the estimated model. The study concludes by providing some recommendations for possible financial plans which could be adopted by Gweru City Council and other local authorities in Zimbabwe for the well-being of Zimbabweans and economic development.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Plants, people, and place: complex, mutualistic, and co-evolving global patterns through time
- Authors: Van Wijk, Yvette Ethné
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Ethnobotany -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Khoisan (African people) -- Ethnobotany , Human-plant relationships -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Plants -- Classification -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Plant remains (Archaeology) -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Ethnoscience -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76575 , vital:30609
- Description: My thesis studies and analyses the suite of distinctive plant taxa which persist in small patches of vegetation growing in close association with archaeological habitation sites in the southern Cape, South Africa. The unexpected correlation and overlap between botanical taxa collected at 75 site complexes, and ethnobotanical data collected in collaboration with modern Khoi-San communities in the same area, is explored and interrogated. Although sparse, reports of the same suite of taxa recovered from archaeological excavations in the Cape provinces provides depth of time to the study, linking the past to the present. The three-way correlation of a suite of plants closely associated with humans and habitation sites through time, allows for triangulation of the data in order to validate and cross verify the results using more than one frame of reference. Both the plants and the knowledge about their uses have persisted in spite of historical attrition, and alienation of land and language, suffered by the Khoi-San over the past 300 years. Drawing on a large body of primary and secondary data, and using an interdisciplinary, abductive and pragmatic mixed methods approach, a pattern can be traced throughout Africa and globally. Regression analysis strongly indicates that the most ubiquitous taxa were selected for a purpose and are not randomly present in association with humans. Botanical, anthropological, and archaeological studies seldom focus on the inter-connectedness of people and plants at the sites they inhabited. Very little research into modern vegetation in close association with the sites has been undertaken, and vegetation mapping has not captured the occurrence of these site-specific small vegetation patches recorded during my surveys. The topographically, geologically, and vegetatively complex and varied southern Cape, and greater Cape area, is extremely rich in archaeological sites and history. This study suggests that the value of site-specific plant taxa to humans throughout the aeons of pre-agricultural history, persists into the present. Due to tolerance of a broad range of climatic and environmental variables, there is value in the study of these ancient and neglected useful plants in the face of climate change. That this vegetation is so closely associated with archaeological sites of cultural and historic importance confers an urgency to recognising the existence and significance of the distinctive and possibly anthropogenic vegetation surrounding the sites.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Van Wijk, Yvette Ethné
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Ethnobotany -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Khoisan (African people) -- Ethnobotany , Human-plant relationships -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Plants -- Classification -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Plant remains (Archaeology) -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Ethnoscience -- South Africa -- Western Cape , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/76575 , vital:30609
- Description: My thesis studies and analyses the suite of distinctive plant taxa which persist in small patches of vegetation growing in close association with archaeological habitation sites in the southern Cape, South Africa. The unexpected correlation and overlap between botanical taxa collected at 75 site complexes, and ethnobotanical data collected in collaboration with modern Khoi-San communities in the same area, is explored and interrogated. Although sparse, reports of the same suite of taxa recovered from archaeological excavations in the Cape provinces provides depth of time to the study, linking the past to the present. The three-way correlation of a suite of plants closely associated with humans and habitation sites through time, allows for triangulation of the data in order to validate and cross verify the results using more than one frame of reference. Both the plants and the knowledge about their uses have persisted in spite of historical attrition, and alienation of land and language, suffered by the Khoi-San over the past 300 years. Drawing on a large body of primary and secondary data, and using an interdisciplinary, abductive and pragmatic mixed methods approach, a pattern can be traced throughout Africa and globally. Regression analysis strongly indicates that the most ubiquitous taxa were selected for a purpose and are not randomly present in association with humans. Botanical, anthropological, and archaeological studies seldom focus on the inter-connectedness of people and plants at the sites they inhabited. Very little research into modern vegetation in close association with the sites has been undertaken, and vegetation mapping has not captured the occurrence of these site-specific small vegetation patches recorded during my surveys. The topographically, geologically, and vegetatively complex and varied southern Cape, and greater Cape area, is extremely rich in archaeological sites and history. This study suggests that the value of site-specific plant taxa to humans throughout the aeons of pre-agricultural history, persists into the present. Due to tolerance of a broad range of climatic and environmental variables, there is value in the study of these ancient and neglected useful plants in the face of climate change. That this vegetation is so closely associated with archaeological sites of cultural and historic importance confers an urgency to recognising the existence and significance of the distinctive and possibly anthropogenic vegetation surrounding the sites.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The development of an ionospheric storm-time index for the South African region
- Authors: Tshisaphungo, Mpho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms -- South Africa , Global Positioning System , Neural networks (Computer science) , Regression analysis , Ionosondes , Auroral electrojet , Geomagnetic indexes , Magnetic storms -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178409 , vital:42937 , 10.21504/10962/178409
- Description: This thesis presents the development of a regional ionospheric storm-time model which forms the foundation of an index to provide a quick view of the ionospheric storm effects over South African mid-latitude region. The model is based on the foF2 measurements from four South African ionosonde stations. The data coverage for the model development over Grahamstown (33.3◦S, 26.5◦E), Hermanus (34.42◦S, 19.22◦E), Louisvale (28.50◦S, 21.20◦E), and Madimbo (22.39◦S, 30.88◦E) is 1996-2016, 2009-2016, 2000-2016, and 2000-2016 respectively. Data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and radio occultation (RO) technique were used during validation. As the measure of either positive or negative storm effect, the variation of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) from the monthly median values (denoted as _foF2) is modeled. The modeling of _foF2 is based on only storm time data with the criteria of Dst 6 -50 nT and Kp > 4. The modeling methods used in the study were artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression (LR) and polynomial functions. The approach taken was to first test the modeling techniques on a single station before expanding the study to cover the regional aspect. The single station modeling was developed based on ionosonde data over Grahamstown. The inputs for the model which related to seasonal variation, diurnal variation, geomagnetic activity and solar activity were considered. For the geomagnetic activity, three indices namely; the symmetric disturbance in the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field (SYM − H), the Auroral Electrojet (AE) index and local geomagnetic index A, were included as inputs. The performance of a single station model revealed that, of the three geomagnetic indices, SYM − H index has the largest contribution of 41% and 54% based on ANN and LR techniques respectively. The average correlation coefficients (R) for both ANN and LR models was 0.8, when validated during the selected storms falling within the period of model development. When validated using storms that fall outside the period of model development, the model gave R values of 0.6 and 0.5 for ANN and LR respectively. In addition, the GPS total electron content (TEC) derived measurements were used to estimate foF2 data. This is because there are more GPS receivers than ionosonde locations and the utilisation of this data increases the spatial coverage of the regional model. The estimation of foF2 from GPS TEC was done at GPS-ionosonde co-locations using polynomial functions. The average R values of 0.69 and 0.65 were obtained between actual and derived _foF2 over the co-locations and other GPS stations respectively. Validation of GPS TEC derived foF2 with RO data over regions out of ionospheric pierce points coverage with respect to ionosonde locations gave R greater than 0.9 for the selected storm period of 4-8 August 2011. The regional storm-time model was then developed based on the ANN technique using the four South African ionosonde stations. The maximum and minimum R values of 0.6 and 0.5 were obtained over ionosonde and GPS locations respectively. This model forms the basis towards the regional ionospheric storm-time index. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Physics and Electronics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Tshisaphungo, Mpho
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Ionospheric storms -- South Africa , Global Positioning System , Neural networks (Computer science) , Regression analysis , Ionosondes , Auroral electrojet , Geomagnetic indexes , Magnetic storms -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178409 , vital:42937 , 10.21504/10962/178409
- Description: This thesis presents the development of a regional ionospheric storm-time model which forms the foundation of an index to provide a quick view of the ionospheric storm effects over South African mid-latitude region. The model is based on the foF2 measurements from four South African ionosonde stations. The data coverage for the model development over Grahamstown (33.3◦S, 26.5◦E), Hermanus (34.42◦S, 19.22◦E), Louisvale (28.50◦S, 21.20◦E), and Madimbo (22.39◦S, 30.88◦E) is 1996-2016, 2009-2016, 2000-2016, and 2000-2016 respectively. Data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and radio occultation (RO) technique were used during validation. As the measure of either positive or negative storm effect, the variation of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) from the monthly median values (denoted as _foF2) is modeled. The modeling of _foF2 is based on only storm time data with the criteria of Dst 6 -50 nT and Kp > 4. The modeling methods used in the study were artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression (LR) and polynomial functions. The approach taken was to first test the modeling techniques on a single station before expanding the study to cover the regional aspect. The single station modeling was developed based on ionosonde data over Grahamstown. The inputs for the model which related to seasonal variation, diurnal variation, geomagnetic activity and solar activity were considered. For the geomagnetic activity, three indices namely; the symmetric disturbance in the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field (SYM − H), the Auroral Electrojet (AE) index and local geomagnetic index A, were included as inputs. The performance of a single station model revealed that, of the three geomagnetic indices, SYM − H index has the largest contribution of 41% and 54% based on ANN and LR techniques respectively. The average correlation coefficients (R) for both ANN and LR models was 0.8, when validated during the selected storms falling within the period of model development. When validated using storms that fall outside the period of model development, the model gave R values of 0.6 and 0.5 for ANN and LR respectively. In addition, the GPS total electron content (TEC) derived measurements were used to estimate foF2 data. This is because there are more GPS receivers than ionosonde locations and the utilisation of this data increases the spatial coverage of the regional model. The estimation of foF2 from GPS TEC was done at GPS-ionosonde co-locations using polynomial functions. The average R values of 0.69 and 0.65 were obtained between actual and derived _foF2 over the co-locations and other GPS stations respectively. Validation of GPS TEC derived foF2 with RO data over regions out of ionospheric pierce points coverage with respect to ionosonde locations gave R greater than 0.9 for the selected storm period of 4-8 August 2011. The regional storm-time model was then developed based on the ANN technique using the four South African ionosonde stations. The maximum and minimum R values of 0.6 and 0.5 were obtained over ionosonde and GPS locations respectively. This model forms the basis towards the regional ionospheric storm-time index. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Physics and Electronics, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
Evaluation of the effectiveness of small aperture network telescopes as IBR data sources
- Authors: Chindipha, Stones Dalitso
- Date: 2023-03-31
- Subjects: Computer networks Monitoring , Computer networks Security measures , Computer bootstrapping , Time-series analysis , Regression analysis , Mathematical models
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/366264 , vital:65849 , DOI https://doi.org/10.21504/10962/366264
- Description: The use of network telescopes to collect unsolicited network traffic by monitoring unallocated address space has been in existence for over two decades. Past research has shown that there is a lot of activity happening in this unallocated space that needs monitoring as it carries threat intelligence data that has proven to be very useful in the security field. Prior to the emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT), commercialisation of IP addresses and widespread of mobile devices, there was a large pool of IPv4 addresses and thus reserving IPv4 addresses to be used for monitoring unsolicited activities going in the unallocated space was not a problem. Now, preservation of such IPv4 addresses just for monitoring is increasingly difficult as there is not enough free addresses in the IPv4 address space to be used for just monitoring. This is the case because such monitoring is seen as a ’non-productive’ use of the IP addresses. This research addresses the problem brought forth by this IPv4 address space exhaustion in relation to Internet Background Radiation (IBR) monitoring. In order to address the research questions, this research developed four mathematical models: Absolute Mean Accuracy Percentage Score (AMAPS), Symmetric Absolute Mean Accuracy Percentage Score (SAMAPS), Standardised Mean Absolute Error (SMAE), and Standardised Mean Absolute Scaled Error (SMASE). These models are used to evaluate the research objectives and quantify the variations that exist between different samples. The sample sizes represent different lens sizes of the telescopes. The study has brought to light a time series plot that shows the expected proportion of unique source IP addresses collected over time. The study also imputed data using the smaller /24 IPv4 net-block subnets to regenerate the missing data points using bootstrapping to create confidence intervals (CI). The findings from the simulated data supports the findings computed from the models. The CI offers a boost to decision making. Through a series of experiments with monthly and quarterly datasets, the study proposed a 95% - 99% confidence level to be used. It was known that large network telescopes collect more threat intelligence data than small-sized network telescopes, however, no study, to the best of our knowledge, has ever quantified such a knowledge gap. With the findings from the study, small-sized network telescope users can now use their network telescopes with full knowledge of gap that exists in the data collected between different network telescopes. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Computer Science, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-03-31
- Authors: Chindipha, Stones Dalitso
- Date: 2023-03-31
- Subjects: Computer networks Monitoring , Computer networks Security measures , Computer bootstrapping , Time-series analysis , Regression analysis , Mathematical models
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/366264 , vital:65849 , DOI https://doi.org/10.21504/10962/366264
- Description: The use of network telescopes to collect unsolicited network traffic by monitoring unallocated address space has been in existence for over two decades. Past research has shown that there is a lot of activity happening in this unallocated space that needs monitoring as it carries threat intelligence data that has proven to be very useful in the security field. Prior to the emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT), commercialisation of IP addresses and widespread of mobile devices, there was a large pool of IPv4 addresses and thus reserving IPv4 addresses to be used for monitoring unsolicited activities going in the unallocated space was not a problem. Now, preservation of such IPv4 addresses just for monitoring is increasingly difficult as there is not enough free addresses in the IPv4 address space to be used for just monitoring. This is the case because such monitoring is seen as a ’non-productive’ use of the IP addresses. This research addresses the problem brought forth by this IPv4 address space exhaustion in relation to Internet Background Radiation (IBR) monitoring. In order to address the research questions, this research developed four mathematical models: Absolute Mean Accuracy Percentage Score (AMAPS), Symmetric Absolute Mean Accuracy Percentage Score (SAMAPS), Standardised Mean Absolute Error (SMAE), and Standardised Mean Absolute Scaled Error (SMASE). These models are used to evaluate the research objectives and quantify the variations that exist between different samples. The sample sizes represent different lens sizes of the telescopes. The study has brought to light a time series plot that shows the expected proportion of unique source IP addresses collected over time. The study also imputed data using the smaller /24 IPv4 net-block subnets to regenerate the missing data points using bootstrapping to create confidence intervals (CI). The findings from the simulated data supports the findings computed from the models. The CI offers a boost to decision making. Through a series of experiments with monthly and quarterly datasets, the study proposed a 95% - 99% confidence level to be used. It was known that large network telescopes collect more threat intelligence data than small-sized network telescopes, however, no study, to the best of our knowledge, has ever quantified such a knowledge gap. With the findings from the study, small-sized network telescope users can now use their network telescopes with full knowledge of gap that exists in the data collected between different network telescopes. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Computer Science, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-03-31
Women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning
- Authors: Durrheim, Meghan
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Women -- Retirement -- South Africa -- Makhanda , Retirement -- Planning , Retirement income -- Planning , Women -- Finance, Personal , Retired women -- Finance, Personal , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/60339 , vital:27771
- Description: Financial retirement planning is an important component in ensuring that individuals accumulate sufficient wealth for retirement. Previous research suggests that many individuals are unable to accumulate sufficient wealth for retirement with the problem being particularly acute for women as they tend to spend less time planning financially for retirement when compared to men. Consequently, many women are unable to accumulate sufficient wealth for retirement. Despite the growing need to investigate women’s financial retirement planning, much research tends to focus on financial retirement planning for males. Consequently, there is a growing need to investigate women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning, particularly in Grahamstown. After conducting an in-depth literature study and using the study done by Doa (2014), six independent variables were identified: values, time horizon, attitudes, working life-cycle, risk tolerance and financial literacy. These independent variables were identified as factors which could potentially influence women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning. A set of hypothesis were formulated to test the relationship between these independent variables and the dependent variable (women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning). The study comprised of 101 participants. A principle component analysis was performed to determine the key variables, with the relevant independent factors being renamed: cultural values, personal values, affective attitudes, time horizon knowledge, time horizon consideration, risk tolerance, financial literacy. An ordinal logit regression analysis was then conducted on these renamed variables to determine the influence of these key independent variables on the dependent variable. After controlling for a set of demographic variables the results of the ordinal logit regression analysis revealed that only affective attitudes, time horizon knowledge, and personal values had a significant relationship with women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning. Cronbach’s alpha revealed that the measuring instrument of the significant extracted factors was reliable, while Pearson product moment was used to determine correlations between extracted key independent variables and the dependent variable. The investigation into women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning enabled insightful information to be gathered which adds to the body of knowledge. In addition, recommendations were formulated in an attempt to assist women when making financial retirement decisions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Durrheim, Meghan
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Women -- Retirement -- South Africa -- Makhanda , Retirement -- Planning , Retirement income -- Planning , Women -- Finance, Personal , Retired women -- Finance, Personal , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/60339 , vital:27771
- Description: Financial retirement planning is an important component in ensuring that individuals accumulate sufficient wealth for retirement. Previous research suggests that many individuals are unable to accumulate sufficient wealth for retirement with the problem being particularly acute for women as they tend to spend less time planning financially for retirement when compared to men. Consequently, many women are unable to accumulate sufficient wealth for retirement. Despite the growing need to investigate women’s financial retirement planning, much research tends to focus on financial retirement planning for males. Consequently, there is a growing need to investigate women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning, particularly in Grahamstown. After conducting an in-depth literature study and using the study done by Doa (2014), six independent variables were identified: values, time horizon, attitudes, working life-cycle, risk tolerance and financial literacy. These independent variables were identified as factors which could potentially influence women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning. A set of hypothesis were formulated to test the relationship between these independent variables and the dependent variable (women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning). The study comprised of 101 participants. A principle component analysis was performed to determine the key variables, with the relevant independent factors being renamed: cultural values, personal values, affective attitudes, time horizon knowledge, time horizon consideration, risk tolerance, financial literacy. An ordinal logit regression analysis was then conducted on these renamed variables to determine the influence of these key independent variables on the dependent variable. After controlling for a set of demographic variables the results of the ordinal logit regression analysis revealed that only affective attitudes, time horizon knowledge, and personal values had a significant relationship with women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning. Cronbach’s alpha revealed that the measuring instrument of the significant extracted factors was reliable, while Pearson product moment was used to determine correlations between extracted key independent variables and the dependent variable. The investigation into women’s perceptions of successful financial retirement planning enabled insightful information to be gathered which adds to the body of knowledge. In addition, recommendations were formulated in an attempt to assist women when making financial retirement decisions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
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