Interdependence and business cycle transmission between South Africa and the USA, UK, Japan and Germany
- Authors: Mugova, Terrence Tafadzwa
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: International economic relations -- Developing countries , Business cycles -- Developing countries , Economic development -- Developing countries , Industrial policy -- Developing countries , International finance
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:946 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002680 , International economic relations -- Developing countries , Business cycles -- Developing countries , Economic development -- Developing countries , Industrial policy -- Developing countries , International finance
- Description: The process of globalisation has had a large impact on the world economy over the past three decades. Economic globalisation has manifested itself in the increasing integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. As a consequence the existence of co-movements in economic variables of different countries has become more evident. The extent to which globalisation causes a country’s economy to move together with the rest of the world concerns policy-makers. When such co-movement is significant, the influence of policy-makers on their respective domestic economies is significantly reduced. South Africa re-entered the international economy in the early 1990s when the forces of globalisation, especially for developing countries, seemed to gain momentum. Empirical research such as Kabundi and Loots (2005) found strong evidence of international co-movement between the world business cycle and the South African business cycle, particularly following South Africa’s integration into the global economy. This study examines the relationship and interdependence between South Africa and four of its major developed trading partners. More particularly, the study examines the question of whether business cycles are transmitted from Germany, Japan, US and UK to South Africa, and/or from South Africa to Germany, Japan, the US and UK. The study employs structural vector autoregressive (SVARs) models to analyse monthly data from 1980:01–2008:04 on industrial production, producer prices, short-term interest rates and real effective exchange rates. The results show that South Africa benefits from economic growth in both the UK and US. They also indicate significant price transmission from Germany and Japan to South Africa, with transmission in the opposite direction being statistically insignificant. The impulse response graphs show that a positive one standard deviation shock to both German and Japanese producer prices has a negative impact on South African output (industrial production) growth. Furthermore, South African monetary policy is relatively unresponsive to international monetary policy stances. The findings of this study indicate that South African policymakers need to take into consideration economic performance of the country’s major trading partners, with particular emphasis on the UK and US economies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Mugova, Terrence Tafadzwa
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: International economic relations -- Developing countries , Business cycles -- Developing countries , Economic development -- Developing countries , Industrial policy -- Developing countries , International finance
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:946 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002680 , International economic relations -- Developing countries , Business cycles -- Developing countries , Economic development -- Developing countries , Industrial policy -- Developing countries , International finance
- Description: The process of globalisation has had a large impact on the world economy over the past three decades. Economic globalisation has manifested itself in the increasing integration of goods and services through international trade and the integration of financial markets. As a consequence the existence of co-movements in economic variables of different countries has become more evident. The extent to which globalisation causes a country’s economy to move together with the rest of the world concerns policy-makers. When such co-movement is significant, the influence of policy-makers on their respective domestic economies is significantly reduced. South Africa re-entered the international economy in the early 1990s when the forces of globalisation, especially for developing countries, seemed to gain momentum. Empirical research such as Kabundi and Loots (2005) found strong evidence of international co-movement between the world business cycle and the South African business cycle, particularly following South Africa’s integration into the global economy. This study examines the relationship and interdependence between South Africa and four of its major developed trading partners. More particularly, the study examines the question of whether business cycles are transmitted from Germany, Japan, US and UK to South Africa, and/or from South Africa to Germany, Japan, the US and UK. The study employs structural vector autoregressive (SVARs) models to analyse monthly data from 1980:01–2008:04 on industrial production, producer prices, short-term interest rates and real effective exchange rates. The results show that South Africa benefits from economic growth in both the UK and US. They also indicate significant price transmission from Germany and Japan to South Africa, with transmission in the opposite direction being statistically insignificant. The impulse response graphs show that a positive one standard deviation shock to both German and Japanese producer prices has a negative impact on South African output (industrial production) growth. Furthermore, South African monetary policy is relatively unresponsive to international monetary policy stances. The findings of this study indicate that South African policymakers need to take into consideration economic performance of the country’s major trading partners, with particular emphasis on the UK and US economies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Interest rate behaviour in a more transparent South African monetary policy environment
- Authors: Ballim, Goolam Hoosen
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1034 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004462 , South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: South Africa introduced inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework in 2000. This marked a sizable shift in monetary policy management from the previous "eclectic" approach and the explicit focus on M3 money supply before that. The study appraises the effectiveness of monetary policy under this new dispensation. However, the analysis does not centre on inflation outcomes, which can be a measure of effectiveness because they are the overriding objective of the South African Reserve Bank in effect, it is possible to have a target-friendly inflation rate for a length of time despite monetary policy that is ambiguous and encourages unpredictability in market interest rates. However, persistent policy opaqueness can, over time, damage a favourable inflation scenario. For instance, if the public is unsure about the Reserve Bank's desired inflation target, price setting in the wage and goods markets may eventually produce an inflation outcome that is higher than the Bank may have intended. Rather, this study adjudicates the effectiveness of monetary policy within the context of policy transparency, which is an intrinsic part of the inflation targeting framework. The study looks at the extent to which monetary policy transparency has enhanced both the anticipatory nature of the market's response to policy actions and the force that policy has on all interest rates in the financial system, particularly long-term rates. These concepts are important because through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, the more deft market participants are at anticipating future Reserve Bank policy the greater the Bank's ability to steady the economy before the actual policy event. With the aid of regression models to estimate the response of market rates to policy changes, the results show that there is significant movement in market rates in anticipation of policy action, rather than on the day of the event or the day after. Indeed, the estimates for market rates movement on the day of and even the day after the policy action are generally minute. For instance, the R157 long-term government bond yield changes by a significant 41 basis points in response to a one percentage point change in the Reserve Bank's benchmark repo rate in the period between the last policy action and the day preceding the current action. In contrast, the R157 bond yield changes by an insignificant 2 basis points on the day of the current repo rate change and about 1 basis point the day after the current change. The results point to a robust relationship between policy transparency and the market's ability to foresee rate action. If this were not the case, it is likely that there would be persistent market surprise and, hence, noticeable movement in interest rates on the day of the rate action and perhaps even the day after. Another important observation is that monetary policy impacts significantly on both short- and long-term market rates. Again, certifying the robustness of monetary policy under the inflation targeting regime
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
- Authors: Ballim, Goolam Hoosen
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1034 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004462 , South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: South Africa introduced inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework in 2000. This marked a sizable shift in monetary policy management from the previous "eclectic" approach and the explicit focus on M3 money supply before that. The study appraises the effectiveness of monetary policy under this new dispensation. However, the analysis does not centre on inflation outcomes, which can be a measure of effectiveness because they are the overriding objective of the South African Reserve Bank in effect, it is possible to have a target-friendly inflation rate for a length of time despite monetary policy that is ambiguous and encourages unpredictability in market interest rates. However, persistent policy opaqueness can, over time, damage a favourable inflation scenario. For instance, if the public is unsure about the Reserve Bank's desired inflation target, price setting in the wage and goods markets may eventually produce an inflation outcome that is higher than the Bank may have intended. Rather, this study adjudicates the effectiveness of monetary policy within the context of policy transparency, which is an intrinsic part of the inflation targeting framework. The study looks at the extent to which monetary policy transparency has enhanced both the anticipatory nature of the market's response to policy actions and the force that policy has on all interest rates in the financial system, particularly long-term rates. These concepts are important because through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, the more deft market participants are at anticipating future Reserve Bank policy the greater the Bank's ability to steady the economy before the actual policy event. With the aid of regression models to estimate the response of market rates to policy changes, the results show that there is significant movement in market rates in anticipation of policy action, rather than on the day of the event or the day after. Indeed, the estimates for market rates movement on the day of and even the day after the policy action are generally minute. For instance, the R157 long-term government bond yield changes by a significant 41 basis points in response to a one percentage point change in the Reserve Bank's benchmark repo rate in the period between the last policy action and the day preceding the current action. In contrast, the R157 bond yield changes by an insignificant 2 basis points on the day of the current repo rate change and about 1 basis point the day after the current change. The results point to a robust relationship between policy transparency and the market's ability to foresee rate action. If this were not the case, it is likely that there would be persistent market surprise and, hence, noticeable movement in interest rates on the day of the rate action and perhaps even the day after. Another important observation is that monetary policy impacts significantly on both short- and long-term market rates. Again, certifying the robustness of monetary policy under the inflation targeting regime
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
Interest rate pass-through in Cameroon and Nigeria: a comparative analysis
- Authors: Tita, Anthanasius Fomum
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Econometric models Cointegration Monetary policy -- Cameroon Monetary policy -- Nigeria Banque des états de l'Afrique centrale Banks and banking -- Cameroon Banks and banking -- Nigeria
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1005 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002740
- Description: One of the most important aspects of monetary policy is an understanding of the transmission process: the mechanism through which the monetary policy actions of the Central Bank impact on aggregate demand and prices by influencing the investment and consumption decisions of households and firms. Thus, commercial banks are regarded as conveyers of monetary policy shocks and are expected to adjust retail interest rates in response to policy shocks one-to-one. In practice, commercial banks adjust their retail rates in response to changes in monetary policy with a lag of several months and this delay is often viewed as an impediment on the ability of the Central Bank to steer the economy. Several reasons, such as credit rationing and adverse selection, switching costs, risk sharing, consumer irrationality, structure of the financial system, menu costs and asymmetric information are some of the causes advanced for commercial banks retail rates being sticky. In spite of the important role of pass-through analysis in the monetary policy transmission process, it has received very little attention in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Cameroon and Nigeria, which have implemented a series of reforms. To this end, this study gives a comparative analysis of interest rate pass-through in Nigeria and Cameroon using retail rates (lending and deposit) and a discount rate (policy rate) from January 1990 to December 2010 for Nigeria and from January 1990 to June 2008 for Cameroon. The study examines the magnitude and speed of retail rate adjustments to changes in the Central Bank policy rate as well as examining the possibility of symmetric and asymmetric pass-through in both countries. In addition, the study also investigates whether there is pass-through of monetary policy from one country to the other. The empirical analysis employs four different types of co-integration techniques to test the presence of a long run co-integrating relationship between retail and the policy rates in order to ensure that the relationship detected is robust. Three sets of analyses are carried out in the study. Following Cottarelli and Kourelis (1994), the study employed a co-integration technique, firstly, to analyse pass-through for the entire sample, secondly, to analyse symmetric and asymmetric pass-through using a ten year rolling window analysis in an error correction framework. Finally, the policy rates were swapped around to investigate if there are transmissions of impulses from one country to the other. Overall, evidence from the entire sample and rolling window analysis suggests that monetary policy in Cameroon is less effective. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the Banque Des Etats De L’Afrique Centrale (BEAC) is unable to sterilise the excess liquidity of the banking sector in Cameroon. The long run pass-through of 0.72 and 0.71 for the entire sample, and the average long run pass-through for the rolling window of 0.78 and 0.76 for the lending and deposit rates, suggest that monetary policy is highly effective in Nigeria compared to Cameroon. The empirical evidence confirmed asymmetric adjustment in six rolling windows in the lending rate in Nigeria. Three rolling windows indicated that the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Scholnick’s (1996) collusive pricing arrangement between banks, and the other three suggested that the lending rate is rigid in the upward direction, corroborating Scholnick’s (1996) customer reaction hypothesis. The deposit rate in Cameroon was also found to adjust asymmetrically and the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Hannan and Berger’s (1991) customer reaction hypothesis. The investigation of impulse transmission between the two countries revealed that only the policy rate in Nigeria exerts some influence on the deposit rate in Cameroon. Policy recommendations are also discussed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Tita, Anthanasius Fomum
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Interest rates -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Cameroon Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- Nigeria Interest rates -- Econometric models Cointegration Monetary policy -- Cameroon Monetary policy -- Nigeria Banque des états de l'Afrique centrale Banks and banking -- Cameroon Banks and banking -- Nigeria
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1005 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002740
- Description: One of the most important aspects of monetary policy is an understanding of the transmission process: the mechanism through which the monetary policy actions of the Central Bank impact on aggregate demand and prices by influencing the investment and consumption decisions of households and firms. Thus, commercial banks are regarded as conveyers of monetary policy shocks and are expected to adjust retail interest rates in response to policy shocks one-to-one. In practice, commercial banks adjust their retail rates in response to changes in monetary policy with a lag of several months and this delay is often viewed as an impediment on the ability of the Central Bank to steer the economy. Several reasons, such as credit rationing and adverse selection, switching costs, risk sharing, consumer irrationality, structure of the financial system, menu costs and asymmetric information are some of the causes advanced for commercial banks retail rates being sticky. In spite of the important role of pass-through analysis in the monetary policy transmission process, it has received very little attention in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Cameroon and Nigeria, which have implemented a series of reforms. To this end, this study gives a comparative analysis of interest rate pass-through in Nigeria and Cameroon using retail rates (lending and deposit) and a discount rate (policy rate) from January 1990 to December 2010 for Nigeria and from January 1990 to June 2008 for Cameroon. The study examines the magnitude and speed of retail rate adjustments to changes in the Central Bank policy rate as well as examining the possibility of symmetric and asymmetric pass-through in both countries. In addition, the study also investigates whether there is pass-through of monetary policy from one country to the other. The empirical analysis employs four different types of co-integration techniques to test the presence of a long run co-integrating relationship between retail and the policy rates in order to ensure that the relationship detected is robust. Three sets of analyses are carried out in the study. Following Cottarelli and Kourelis (1994), the study employed a co-integration technique, firstly, to analyse pass-through for the entire sample, secondly, to analyse symmetric and asymmetric pass-through using a ten year rolling window analysis in an error correction framework. Finally, the policy rates were swapped around to investigate if there are transmissions of impulses from one country to the other. Overall, evidence from the entire sample and rolling window analysis suggests that monetary policy in Cameroon is less effective. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the Banque Des Etats De L’Afrique Centrale (BEAC) is unable to sterilise the excess liquidity of the banking sector in Cameroon. The long run pass-through of 0.72 and 0.71 for the entire sample, and the average long run pass-through for the rolling window of 0.78 and 0.76 for the lending and deposit rates, suggest that monetary policy is highly effective in Nigeria compared to Cameroon. The empirical evidence confirmed asymmetric adjustment in six rolling windows in the lending rate in Nigeria. Three rolling windows indicated that the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Scholnick’s (1996) collusive pricing arrangement between banks, and the other three suggested that the lending rate is rigid in the upward direction, corroborating Scholnick’s (1996) customer reaction hypothesis. The deposit rate in Cameroon was also found to adjust asymmetrically and the direction of rigidity is downward, supporting Hannan and Berger’s (1991) customer reaction hypothesis. The investigation of impulse transmission between the two countries revealed that only the policy rate in Nigeria exerts some influence on the deposit rate in Cameroon. Policy recommendations are also discussed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Interest rate risk management : a case study of GBS Mutual Bank
- Authors: Williamson, Gareth Alan
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:986 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002720 , GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Description: Banks play a pivotal role in the economic growth and development of countries, primarily through the diversification of risk for both themselves and other economic agents. Interest rate risk is regarded as one of the most prominent financial risks faced by a bank. A large portion of private banks’ revenue stems from net interest income that is generated from the difference between various assets and liabilities that are held on the balance sheet. Fluctuations in the interest rate can alter a bank’s interest income and value, making interest rate risk management vital to its success. The asset and liability committee of a bank is the internal committee charged with the duty of managing the bank’s interest rate risk exposure through the use of various hedging strategies and instruments. This thesis uses a case study methodology to analyse GBS Mutual Bank interest rate risk management. Its specific business circumstances, balance sheet structure and the market conditions over a specified period are used to comment on the practicality of a variety of balance sheet positioning strategies and derivative hedging instruments. The thesis also provides recommendations for the bank’s asset and liability committee in terms of its functions and organisation. It is elucidated that the most practical balance sheet hedging strategies are a volume strategy and immunisation, while the most practical derivative hedging instruments are interest rate futures and interest rate collars. It is found that the bank has a well functioning asset and liability committee whose only encumbrance to its functionality is the inadequacy of the informational technology used to measure, control and manage its interest rate risk position. This thesis concludes by summarising the practicality of the various interest rate risk hedging alternatives available to the GBS Mutual Bank. Implementing a particular strategy or instrument depends, of course, on its asset and liability committee’s decision.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Williamson, Gareth Alan
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:986 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002720 , GBS Mutual Bank , Interest rates -- Case studies , Interest rate risk -- Case studies , Risk management -- Case studies , Financial risk -- Case studies , Banks and banking -- Case studies
- Description: Banks play a pivotal role in the economic growth and development of countries, primarily through the diversification of risk for both themselves and other economic agents. Interest rate risk is regarded as one of the most prominent financial risks faced by a bank. A large portion of private banks’ revenue stems from net interest income that is generated from the difference between various assets and liabilities that are held on the balance sheet. Fluctuations in the interest rate can alter a bank’s interest income and value, making interest rate risk management vital to its success. The asset and liability committee of a bank is the internal committee charged with the duty of managing the bank’s interest rate risk exposure through the use of various hedging strategies and instruments. This thesis uses a case study methodology to analyse GBS Mutual Bank interest rate risk management. Its specific business circumstances, balance sheet structure and the market conditions over a specified period are used to comment on the practicality of a variety of balance sheet positioning strategies and derivative hedging instruments. The thesis also provides recommendations for the bank’s asset and liability committee in terms of its functions and organisation. It is elucidated that the most practical balance sheet hedging strategies are a volume strategy and immunisation, while the most practical derivative hedging instruments are interest rate futures and interest rate collars. It is found that the bank has a well functioning asset and liability committee whose only encumbrance to its functionality is the inadequacy of the informational technology used to measure, control and manage its interest rate risk position. This thesis concludes by summarising the practicality of the various interest rate risk hedging alternatives available to the GBS Mutual Bank. Implementing a particular strategy or instrument depends, of course, on its asset and liability committee’s decision.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Investigating the impact of brand reputation on brand architecture strategies : a study on a South African automotive company
- Authors: Waddington, Andrew John
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Branding (Marketing) -- Case studies Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Case studies Toyota Jidōsha Kōgyō Kabushiki Kaisha -- Case studies Automobiles -- Marketing -- Case studies Product management -- Case studies Branding (Marketing) -- Management -- Case studies Corporate image -- Management -- Case studies Brand name products -- South Africa -- Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1179 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002796
- Description: The brand architecture of an organisation has become increasingly important to global management and marketing professionals, as it deals with structures and designs of brands which are constantly influenced by a changing environment. The market realities and changes brands face continuously impact the reputation of the brand, which is critical to sustain competitive advantage. The primary purpose of the study was to investigate the impact brand reputation has on brand architecture strategies, and an automotive company was chosen as the focus of the research. This research aims to help managers, marketers and brand owners make informative decisions regarding the brand architecture of a company. A quantitative content analysis methodology was used along with a webpage keyword counting application (WebWords). The application was used based on the principles outlined by Corporate Brand and Reputation Analysis (COBRA), which uses a four step progressive filtering process in filtering traditional and consumer generated media. The results from WebWords were then aligned to the brand architecture strategies from the brand relationship spectrum (BRS) to gain insight as to which of the strategies from the BRS were most vulnerable to reputational damage. The study found that the branded house and sub-brand strategies were most vulnerable to reputational damage based on the number reputational hits received. The connection between the master brand and the sub-brands could cause both brands to be affected should any reputational issues arise.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Waddington, Andrew John
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Branding (Marketing) -- Case studies Automobile industry and trade -- South Africa -- Case studies Toyota Jidōsha Kōgyō Kabushiki Kaisha -- Case studies Automobiles -- Marketing -- Case studies Product management -- Case studies Branding (Marketing) -- Management -- Case studies Corporate image -- Management -- Case studies Brand name products -- South Africa -- Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1179 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002796
- Description: The brand architecture of an organisation has become increasingly important to global management and marketing professionals, as it deals with structures and designs of brands which are constantly influenced by a changing environment. The market realities and changes brands face continuously impact the reputation of the brand, which is critical to sustain competitive advantage. The primary purpose of the study was to investigate the impact brand reputation has on brand architecture strategies, and an automotive company was chosen as the focus of the research. This research aims to help managers, marketers and brand owners make informative decisions regarding the brand architecture of a company. A quantitative content analysis methodology was used along with a webpage keyword counting application (WebWords). The application was used based on the principles outlined by Corporate Brand and Reputation Analysis (COBRA), which uses a four step progressive filtering process in filtering traditional and consumer generated media. The results from WebWords were then aligned to the brand architecture strategies from the brand relationship spectrum (BRS) to gain insight as to which of the strategies from the BRS were most vulnerable to reputational damage. The study found that the branded house and sub-brand strategies were most vulnerable to reputational damage based on the number reputational hits received. The connection between the master brand and the sub-brands could cause both brands to be affected should any reputational issues arise.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Investigating the problems experienced by virtual team members engaged in requirements elicitation
- Authors: De Abrew, Upuli Kanchana
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Virtual work teams Virtual work teams -- South Africa System design System analysis
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1151 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007845
- Description: The constant acceleration in the rate of technological innovation, and the ever growing emphasis on the importance of information for competition has seen organisations around the world strive for the technologies that give them global customer reach. One of the most pervasive technological innovations developed is the internet, and its unique quality of being able to draw people from across the world together in one virtual space has given birth to the concept of virtual teams. Organisations have seized the advantages of such virtual teams to give them the cost and time reductions they need to stay competitive in the global marketplace. In the software industry, where product and service development is always a race against time, forward thinking software companies in the developed world have taken full advantage of the cost and time saving benefits that virtual teams have to offer. In addition, the rate of expansion of technology and software to support such teams is also growing exponentially, offering increasingly faster ways of virtual working. Despite the immense advantages offered by such teams, South African software development companies do not seem to engage in distributed work to any great degree. The importance of this research rests on the belief that South African software development companies will be unable to avoid engaging in distributed software development if they are to achieve and maintain competitiveness in the global marketplace. This research focuses on a sub-section of the software development process with a specific reference to South African software development. The requirements elicitation phase of software development is one of the initial stages of any software project. It is here that developers work with the users in order to identify requirements for the system to be built. It is acknowledged that other phases of distributed development also bring to bear their own problems, however, in the interests of scoping this research, only the requirements elicitation process is focused on. The research shows that most techniques of requirements elicitation can be adapted for use within the virtual environment, although each technique has its share of advantages and disadvantages. In addition, virtual team members experience problems during their general, day-to-day interactions, many of these arising from the dependence on technology for communication and task performance. The research identifies the problems in both categories, and develops a holistic model of virtual requirements elicitation to prevent or solve the problems experienced by virtual teams engaged in distributed requirements elicitation. The model is made up of three key frameworks, each of which prescribes actions to be taken to ensure the success of the virtual team within the requirements elicitation process. The model is verified through the testing of its critical success factors. Certain aspects of the model were adapted based on the findings of the study, but it was confirmed that the rationale behind the model is sound, indicating that it has the potential to solve the problems of virtual RE when implemented.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: De Abrew, Upuli Kanchana
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Virtual work teams Virtual work teams -- South Africa System design System analysis
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1151 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007845
- Description: The constant acceleration in the rate of technological innovation, and the ever growing emphasis on the importance of information for competition has seen organisations around the world strive for the technologies that give them global customer reach. One of the most pervasive technological innovations developed is the internet, and its unique quality of being able to draw people from across the world together in one virtual space has given birth to the concept of virtual teams. Organisations have seized the advantages of such virtual teams to give them the cost and time reductions they need to stay competitive in the global marketplace. In the software industry, where product and service development is always a race against time, forward thinking software companies in the developed world have taken full advantage of the cost and time saving benefits that virtual teams have to offer. In addition, the rate of expansion of technology and software to support such teams is also growing exponentially, offering increasingly faster ways of virtual working. Despite the immense advantages offered by such teams, South African software development companies do not seem to engage in distributed work to any great degree. The importance of this research rests on the belief that South African software development companies will be unable to avoid engaging in distributed software development if they are to achieve and maintain competitiveness in the global marketplace. This research focuses on a sub-section of the software development process with a specific reference to South African software development. The requirements elicitation phase of software development is one of the initial stages of any software project. It is here that developers work with the users in order to identify requirements for the system to be built. It is acknowledged that other phases of distributed development also bring to bear their own problems, however, in the interests of scoping this research, only the requirements elicitation process is focused on. The research shows that most techniques of requirements elicitation can be adapted for use within the virtual environment, although each technique has its share of advantages and disadvantages. In addition, virtual team members experience problems during their general, day-to-day interactions, many of these arising from the dependence on technology for communication and task performance. The research identifies the problems in both categories, and develops a holistic model of virtual requirements elicitation to prevent or solve the problems experienced by virtual teams engaged in distributed requirements elicitation. The model is made up of three key frameworks, each of which prescribes actions to be taken to ensure the success of the virtual team within the requirements elicitation process. The model is verified through the testing of its critical success factors. Certain aspects of the model were adapted based on the findings of the study, but it was confirmed that the rationale behind the model is sound, indicating that it has the potential to solve the problems of virtual RE when implemented.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
Investment-grade or “junk” status: do sovereign credit ratings really matter?
- Authors: Slabbert, Adriaan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Credit ratings , Rating agencies (Finance) , Developing countries -- Economic conditions , Developing countries -- Foreign economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/97067 , vital:31393
- Description: Credit ratings play a well-established part in modern financial markets, reducing asymmetric information between investors and borrowers. In particular, sovereign credit ratings allow the world’s lesser-known economies to access a wider pool of international capital, while simultaneously allowing international investors to access a more diverse set of investment opportunities. The importance of sovereign credit ratings in terms of the cost of government debt in developing nations was observed. The relationship between sovereign credit ratings and average bond spreads over the time period spanning 2006 – 2017 was examined in 25 emerging economies. Regression analysis in the form of fixed-effects and random-effects models was used to determine the impact of changes in sovereign credit ratings on the cost of sovereign debt, controlling for certain macroeconomic factors. It was concluded that sovereign credit ratings are relevant in helping to determine the cost of sovereign debt for developing economies, but that they are not the only factor considered by global markets. The thesis therefore recommended further research into the factors affecting the cost of sovereign debt as well as further refinements to the methodologies that ratings agencies use to assign ratings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Slabbert, Adriaan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Credit ratings , Rating agencies (Finance) , Developing countries -- Economic conditions , Developing countries -- Foreign economic relations
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/97067 , vital:31393
- Description: Credit ratings play a well-established part in modern financial markets, reducing asymmetric information between investors and borrowers. In particular, sovereign credit ratings allow the world’s lesser-known economies to access a wider pool of international capital, while simultaneously allowing international investors to access a more diverse set of investment opportunities. The importance of sovereign credit ratings in terms of the cost of government debt in developing nations was observed. The relationship between sovereign credit ratings and average bond spreads over the time period spanning 2006 – 2017 was examined in 25 emerging economies. Regression analysis in the form of fixed-effects and random-effects models was used to determine the impact of changes in sovereign credit ratings on the cost of sovereign debt, controlling for certain macroeconomic factors. It was concluded that sovereign credit ratings are relevant in helping to determine the cost of sovereign debt for developing economies, but that they are not the only factor considered by global markets. The thesis therefore recommended further research into the factors affecting the cost of sovereign debt as well as further refinements to the methodologies that ratings agencies use to assign ratings.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Is inflation targeting a viable option for a developing country?: the case of Malawi
- Hompashe, Dumisani MacDonald
- Authors: Hompashe, Dumisani MacDonald
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- Malawi -- Case studies , Banks and banking, Central -- Malawi , Monetary policy -- Malawi , Finance -- Developing countries , Debts, External -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:943 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002676 , Inflation (Finance) -- Malawi -- Case studies , Banks and banking, Central -- Malawi , Monetary policy -- Malawi , Finance -- Developing countries , Debts, External -- Developing countries
- Description: The distinctive features of inflation targeting include the publishing of the formal (official) target band or point target for the rate of inflation at one or more time horizons and the explicit confirmation that low and steady inflation is the long-run objective of monetary policy. There are four main preconditions of inflation targeting: 1) an independent central bank that is free from fiscal and political pressures; 2) a central bank that has both the ability to forecast inflation and the capability to model inflation data; 3) the presence of fully deregulated prices and an economy that is affected by changes of commodity prices, as well as exchange rates; and 4) the presence of sound banking system and well developed capital markets. In most developing countries, the use of seigniorage revenues as a source of financing government debts, the lack of commitment by monetary authorities to low inflation as a primary goal, the absence of the central bank’s functional independence, and of powerful models to make domestic inflation forecasts, prevent the satisfaction of these preconditions. This dissertation investigates the extent to which Malawi meets the preconditions for inflation targeting by comparing the situation in that country to other developing countries, which have already adopted the framework. Malawi is committed to the central bank’s functional independence as well as the pursuit of prudent fiscal policy measures for the attainment of low inflation. Despite the failure to meet all the preconditions, this study recommends that Malawi should adopt an inflation targeting framework due to the strength of commitment of the monetary authorities in satisfying these preconditions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Hompashe, Dumisani MacDonald
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Inflation (Finance) -- Malawi -- Case studies , Banks and banking, Central -- Malawi , Monetary policy -- Malawi , Finance -- Developing countries , Debts, External -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:943 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002676 , Inflation (Finance) -- Malawi -- Case studies , Banks and banking, Central -- Malawi , Monetary policy -- Malawi , Finance -- Developing countries , Debts, External -- Developing countries
- Description: The distinctive features of inflation targeting include the publishing of the formal (official) target band or point target for the rate of inflation at one or more time horizons and the explicit confirmation that low and steady inflation is the long-run objective of monetary policy. There are four main preconditions of inflation targeting: 1) an independent central bank that is free from fiscal and political pressures; 2) a central bank that has both the ability to forecast inflation and the capability to model inflation data; 3) the presence of fully deregulated prices and an economy that is affected by changes of commodity prices, as well as exchange rates; and 4) the presence of sound banking system and well developed capital markets. In most developing countries, the use of seigniorage revenues as a source of financing government debts, the lack of commitment by monetary authorities to low inflation as a primary goal, the absence of the central bank’s functional independence, and of powerful models to make domestic inflation forecasts, prevent the satisfaction of these preconditions. This dissertation investigates the extent to which Malawi meets the preconditions for inflation targeting by comparing the situation in that country to other developing countries, which have already adopted the framework. Malawi is committed to the central bank’s functional independence as well as the pursuit of prudent fiscal policy measures for the attainment of low inflation. Despite the failure to meet all the preconditions, this study recommends that Malawi should adopt an inflation targeting framework due to the strength of commitment of the monetary authorities in satisfying these preconditions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Job creation and income generation in the cultural and creative industries: a case study of the shweshwe sewing industry
- Authors: Mapuma, Aviwe Simbonge
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Textile industry -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Clothing trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Sewing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Job creation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Textile manufacturers -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Textile fabrics , Income -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/122948 , vital:35378
- Description: Worldwide, there has been a growing realisation of the importance of Cultural and Creative Industries as a driving force for employment creation, income generation and economic growth. Therefore, there is a need in South Africa to study and understand these industries setting, and business environment. Shweshwe is a unique local fabric produced by Da Gama Textiles in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. This fabric is used by many micro-enterprises as an input to make clothes and other items for traditional cultural celebrations and ceremonies. This study is about the micro-enterprises who use South Africa made textiles (i.e. shweshwe textile) as business input. More specifically, it looks at employment creation and income generation opportunities of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe textile as an input. These micro-enterprises and shweshwe production are being threatened by the rising influx of cheaper ready-made imported clothes that mimic the shweshwe designs and colours, in some cases, the logo as well. This study also plans to estimate the size and discover the attributes of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input in their businesses in South Africa, in order to estimate the impact of the counterfeit shweshwe imports on those micro-enterprises. This study adopted a mixed-methods approach-using a combination of both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods. Face-to-face interviews with questionnaires, were done with a total sample of 62 owners of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as input, in the Western Cape (Cape Town) and Eastern Cape (i.e. Makhanda and East London), South Africa. Self-administered questionnaires were emailed to 20 Jackson’s Stores managers across the country. Lastly, face-to-face interviews were done with the key stakeholder-the representative of Cowie trading (the main shweshwe distributor) and Da Gama Textiles (the factory of shweshwe), during a field visit. The Qualitative data was analysed using thematic analysis, whereas the quantitative data was analysed using inferential and descriptive statistics. The results show, that the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as input are a significant contributor in terms of employment creation and income generation in South Africa. They also reveal that there is a big number of micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input in SA. The findings showed an estimate of between 5077 and 6000 small businesses that are using shweshwe an input, which are associated with 10 900 to 12 900 jobs. It was also found out that there is a transformation in this industry, and that this sector is B-BEE compliant. There are also high levels of human capital in this industry. This is an important finding revealing that there is potential for future growth in this sector. Results also found that the majority micro-enterprise owners (80%) have no other source of income, meaning that they are highly reliant on their shweshwe sewing business income. Additionally, 85% of those business, shweshwe garments makes up half or more of their sewing business proceeds. This reveals that a decline in income caused by the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe will have a negative impact on the micro-enterprises’ ability to contribute to economic growth and job creation in this industry. To show the impact of the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe on the micro-enterprises’ ability to contribute to economic growth and job creation in this industry. In the questionnaires that were used to conduct face-to-face interviews with the micro-enterprises, respondents were asked to indicate whether they had other sources of income other than the income they generate from the shweshwe sewing business. They were further asked as follow up question to choose from a given list of possible options containing a range of percentages of their business income that comes from the work sewn with shweshwe. This question was asked in order to be able to see, if there were to be a decline in income caused by the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe what impact it would have on the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input. The theory of industrial organisation has adopted the view of that businesses operating in the formal sector are more efficient and productive than those in the informal sector (Lobato, 2010). The study found that the micro-enterprises that operate in the formal sector generate more turnover than the ones that operate in the informal sector. However, the theory was further tested by running OLS regression, the results showed that operating in the informal sector does not affect turnover when other variables are controlled for, however, that it does affect job creation. In closing, this thesis provides suggestions on how to support, and protect the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input, in order to enhance this industry’s potential also to ensure its continuous contribution in terms of employment creation and income generation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mapuma, Aviwe Simbonge
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Textile industry -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Clothing trade -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Sewing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Job creation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Textile manufacturers -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Textile fabrics , Income -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/122948 , vital:35378
- Description: Worldwide, there has been a growing realisation of the importance of Cultural and Creative Industries as a driving force for employment creation, income generation and economic growth. Therefore, there is a need in South Africa to study and understand these industries setting, and business environment. Shweshwe is a unique local fabric produced by Da Gama Textiles in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. This fabric is used by many micro-enterprises as an input to make clothes and other items for traditional cultural celebrations and ceremonies. This study is about the micro-enterprises who use South Africa made textiles (i.e. shweshwe textile) as business input. More specifically, it looks at employment creation and income generation opportunities of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe textile as an input. These micro-enterprises and shweshwe production are being threatened by the rising influx of cheaper ready-made imported clothes that mimic the shweshwe designs and colours, in some cases, the logo as well. This study also plans to estimate the size and discover the attributes of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input in their businesses in South Africa, in order to estimate the impact of the counterfeit shweshwe imports on those micro-enterprises. This study adopted a mixed-methods approach-using a combination of both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods. Face-to-face interviews with questionnaires, were done with a total sample of 62 owners of the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as input, in the Western Cape (Cape Town) and Eastern Cape (i.e. Makhanda and East London), South Africa. Self-administered questionnaires were emailed to 20 Jackson’s Stores managers across the country. Lastly, face-to-face interviews were done with the key stakeholder-the representative of Cowie trading (the main shweshwe distributor) and Da Gama Textiles (the factory of shweshwe), during a field visit. The Qualitative data was analysed using thematic analysis, whereas the quantitative data was analysed using inferential and descriptive statistics. The results show, that the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as input are a significant contributor in terms of employment creation and income generation in South Africa. They also reveal that there is a big number of micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input in SA. The findings showed an estimate of between 5077 and 6000 small businesses that are using shweshwe an input, which are associated with 10 900 to 12 900 jobs. It was also found out that there is a transformation in this industry, and that this sector is B-BEE compliant. There are also high levels of human capital in this industry. This is an important finding revealing that there is potential for future growth in this sector. Results also found that the majority micro-enterprise owners (80%) have no other source of income, meaning that they are highly reliant on their shweshwe sewing business income. Additionally, 85% of those business, shweshwe garments makes up half or more of their sewing business proceeds. This reveals that a decline in income caused by the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe will have a negative impact on the micro-enterprises’ ability to contribute to economic growth and job creation in this industry. To show the impact of the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe on the micro-enterprises’ ability to contribute to economic growth and job creation in this industry. In the questionnaires that were used to conduct face-to-face interviews with the micro-enterprises, respondents were asked to indicate whether they had other sources of income other than the income they generate from the shweshwe sewing business. They were further asked as follow up question to choose from a given list of possible options containing a range of percentages of their business income that comes from the work sewn with shweshwe. This question was asked in order to be able to see, if there were to be a decline in income caused by the import of ready-made clothes in “fake” shweshwe what impact it would have on the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input. The theory of industrial organisation has adopted the view of that businesses operating in the formal sector are more efficient and productive than those in the informal sector (Lobato, 2010). The study found that the micro-enterprises that operate in the formal sector generate more turnover than the ones that operate in the informal sector. However, the theory was further tested by running OLS regression, the results showed that operating in the informal sector does not affect turnover when other variables are controlled for, however, that it does affect job creation. In closing, this thesis provides suggestions on how to support, and protect the micro-enterprises that use shweshwe as an input, in order to enhance this industry’s potential also to ensure its continuous contribution in terms of employment creation and income generation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Labour hire: the impact of labour broking on employee job satisfaction and commitment in a number of Namibian organizations
- Shivangulula, Shirley Euginia
- Authors: Shivangulula, Shirley Euginia
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Temporary employment -- Namibia , Industrial relations -- Namibia , Employee motivation , Labor market -- Namibia , Labor policy -- Namibia
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:3054 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002563 , Temporary employment -- Namibia , Industrial relations -- Namibia , Employee motivation , Labor market -- Namibia , Labor policy -- Namibia
- Description: Over decades, job satisfaction has generated active empirical research. Similarly, organizational commitment, another attitudinal variable in the work domain, strongly related to, but distinctly different from job satisfaction, received comparatively equal research scrutiny. However, research on the impact of labour broking on employees’ job satisfaction and organizational commitment is nonexistent in Namibia. Using a quantitative approach, within a positivist paradigm, the purpose of this thesis was to examine the impact of labour broking on employees’ job satisfaction and organizational commitment as well as to determine the dynamics that mediate such experiences. These experiences were examined through a 5-dimensional, 72-item Job Descriptive Index and a 3-dimensional, 12-item Organizational Commitment Questionnaire over a sample size of 108 temporary and permanent employees, drawn through random probability sampling in a number of Namibian organizations that make use of labour hire services. These experiences were further amplified by face-to-face interviews over a sub sample of 20 employees. Data analysis was carried out using the chi-square, correlation, t-tests and multiple regression techniques of the STATISTICA software. Drawing on the principles of the multi dimensional theory of organizational commitment, the Cornell dispositional theory of job satisfaction and the temporary employee stigmatization model, results revealed that variables of employment status, tenure, inadequate income, inappropriate supervision and fear of job losses ahead of a newly proposed piece of legislat st labour hire ractices significantly influenced job satisfaction and organizational commitment of employees. Estimates indicate that for a mere change in tenure, job satisfaction levels will significantly rise by 0.26 units, whereas organizational commitment will augment by 0.03 units. However, for every N$ fall in employees’ pay, we can expect job satisfaction levels to decrease by 26%, but with significant effects. The study recommends that organizations must adopt policies that grant permanent tenure to all their employees, position them in respected and challenging jobs in which they will grow skills and ensure that all employees are remunerated with pay that signals their contribution to the organizations. In doing so, the negative effects of labour broking will disappear and employees will be satisfied with their jobs and Tommitted to their organizations.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Shivangulula, Shirley Euginia
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Temporary employment -- Namibia , Industrial relations -- Namibia , Employee motivation , Labor market -- Namibia , Labor policy -- Namibia
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:3054 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002563 , Temporary employment -- Namibia , Industrial relations -- Namibia , Employee motivation , Labor market -- Namibia , Labor policy -- Namibia
- Description: Over decades, job satisfaction has generated active empirical research. Similarly, organizational commitment, another attitudinal variable in the work domain, strongly related to, but distinctly different from job satisfaction, received comparatively equal research scrutiny. However, research on the impact of labour broking on employees’ job satisfaction and organizational commitment is nonexistent in Namibia. Using a quantitative approach, within a positivist paradigm, the purpose of this thesis was to examine the impact of labour broking on employees’ job satisfaction and organizational commitment as well as to determine the dynamics that mediate such experiences. These experiences were examined through a 5-dimensional, 72-item Job Descriptive Index and a 3-dimensional, 12-item Organizational Commitment Questionnaire over a sample size of 108 temporary and permanent employees, drawn through random probability sampling in a number of Namibian organizations that make use of labour hire services. These experiences were further amplified by face-to-face interviews over a sub sample of 20 employees. Data analysis was carried out using the chi-square, correlation, t-tests and multiple regression techniques of the STATISTICA software. Drawing on the principles of the multi dimensional theory of organizational commitment, the Cornell dispositional theory of job satisfaction and the temporary employee stigmatization model, results revealed that variables of employment status, tenure, inadequate income, inappropriate supervision and fear of job losses ahead of a newly proposed piece of legislat st labour hire ractices significantly influenced job satisfaction and organizational commitment of employees. Estimates indicate that for a mere change in tenure, job satisfaction levels will significantly rise by 0.26 units, whereas organizational commitment will augment by 0.03 units. However, for every N$ fall in employees’ pay, we can expect job satisfaction levels to decrease by 26%, but with significant effects. The study recommends that organizations must adopt policies that grant permanent tenure to all their employees, position them in respected and challenging jobs in which they will grow skills and ensure that all employees are remunerated with pay that signals their contribution to the organizations. In doing so, the negative effects of labour broking will disappear and employees will be satisfied with their jobs and Tommitted to their organizations.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Land reform in South Africa: effects on land prices and productivity
- Authors: Van Rooyen, Jonathan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Right of property -- South Africa , Land reform -- South Africa , Agriculture and state -- South Africa , Agricultural prices -- South Africa , Land tenure -- Government policy -- South Africa , Land reform -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Real property -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:987 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002721
- Description: South Africa’s land redistribution policy (1994-2008) has been widely publicised, and has come under scrutiny of late from the public, private and government spheres, highlighting a need for research in this area. The research examines progress in South Africa’s land redistribution programme in two of KwaZulu-Natal’s district municipalities, Uthungulu and iLembe. Specifically the research investigates whether the government has paid above market prices when purchasing sugarcane farmland for redistribution in these districts. Moreover, it is illustrated how productivity on redistributed farms has been affected with the changes in ownership. To investigate the research questions, reviews of theories pertaining to property rights, land reform and market structures were conducted. Moreover, two cases studies were conducted in the districts of Uthungulu and iLembe, with assistance from the Department of Land Affairs, Inkezo Land Company and the South African Cane Growers Association. The case study data indicate that above ordinary market prices have been paid (2004-2006) by the government for sugarcane farmland in the districts concerned, and further that productivity has been negatively impacted ‘during’ and ‘post‘ transfer, in the majority of cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Van Rooyen, Jonathan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Right of property -- South Africa , Land reform -- South Africa , Agriculture and state -- South Africa , Agricultural prices -- South Africa , Land tenure -- Government policy -- South Africa , Land reform -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Real property -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:987 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002721
- Description: South Africa’s land redistribution policy (1994-2008) has been widely publicised, and has come under scrutiny of late from the public, private and government spheres, highlighting a need for research in this area. The research examines progress in South Africa’s land redistribution programme in two of KwaZulu-Natal’s district municipalities, Uthungulu and iLembe. Specifically the research investigates whether the government has paid above market prices when purchasing sugarcane farmland for redistribution in these districts. Moreover, it is illustrated how productivity on redistributed farms has been affected with the changes in ownership. To investigate the research questions, reviews of theories pertaining to property rights, land reform and market structures were conducted. Moreover, two cases studies were conducted in the districts of Uthungulu and iLembe, with assistance from the Department of Land Affairs, Inkezo Land Company and the South African Cane Growers Association. The case study data indicate that above ordinary market prices have been paid (2004-2006) by the government for sugarcane farmland in the districts concerned, and further that productivity has been negatively impacted ‘during’ and ‘post‘ transfer, in the majority of cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Livelihoods and climate change in Hamburg: issues for food security
- Authors: Martens, Brendon
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Climatic changes -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape. , Climatic changes -- Risk management -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Climatic changes -- Effect of human beings on , Climatic changes -- Agriculture
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1116 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017538
- Description: Climate change continues to present a major challenge to food security around the world. The potential impact of climate change of rural livelihoods is especially significant as rural communities often rely heavily on natural resources to sustain their livelihoods and, hence, food security. This is applicable to the rural town of Hamburg, on the Eastern Cape coast of South Africa. The Sustainable Rural Livelihoods framework analyses livelihoods in terms of the context, available capitals and institutional framework that determines the livelihood strategies and outcomes for rural households. In terms of livelihood outcomes for Hamburg, it was found that the households have a heavy reliance on state grants in their livelihood portfolios. Natural resources, in the form of agriculture and harvesting of marine organisms, played only a supplementary role in livelihood strategies. Thus, given that climate change would impact negatively on the estuarine resources and the impact on agriculture is unknown as the climate becomes wetter and hotter, the impact on livelihoods and food security would not be significant. However, the sustainability of current livelihood strategies is questionable as grants, by their very nature, or unsustainable and therefore can result in vulnerability and food insecurity in the long-run for households. It is recommended that grants should be issued within the community, instead of in the distant town of Peddie, to help develop the local economy and reduce leakages. This would allow for diversification of livelihood strategies in Hamburg. In addition, government support through extension officers should be extended to Hamburg to assist in developing the local agriculture sector
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Martens, Brendon
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Climatic changes -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape. , Climatic changes -- Risk management -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Climatic changes -- Effect of human beings on , Climatic changes -- Agriculture
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1116 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017538
- Description: Climate change continues to present a major challenge to food security around the world. The potential impact of climate change of rural livelihoods is especially significant as rural communities often rely heavily on natural resources to sustain their livelihoods and, hence, food security. This is applicable to the rural town of Hamburg, on the Eastern Cape coast of South Africa. The Sustainable Rural Livelihoods framework analyses livelihoods in terms of the context, available capitals and institutional framework that determines the livelihood strategies and outcomes for rural households. In terms of livelihood outcomes for Hamburg, it was found that the households have a heavy reliance on state grants in their livelihood portfolios. Natural resources, in the form of agriculture and harvesting of marine organisms, played only a supplementary role in livelihood strategies. Thus, given that climate change would impact negatively on the estuarine resources and the impact on agriculture is unknown as the climate becomes wetter and hotter, the impact on livelihoods and food security would not be significant. However, the sustainability of current livelihood strategies is questionable as grants, by their very nature, or unsustainable and therefore can result in vulnerability and food insecurity in the long-run for households. It is recommended that grants should be issued within the community, instead of in the distant town of Peddie, to help develop the local economy and reduce leakages. This would allow for diversification of livelihood strategies in Hamburg. In addition, government support through extension officers should be extended to Hamburg to assist in developing the local agriculture sector
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Macro-locational determinants and motive of Chinese foreign direct investment in Cameroon
- Authors: Andangnui, Quintabella
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- Cameroon , Investments, Chinese -- Cameroon , Corporations, Foreign -- Cameroon , Industrial location -- Cameroon
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/163157 , vital:41014
- Description: This research falls under the general themes of macro-locational determinants and motives of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the challenges faced by FDIs. Specifically, the research focuses on macro-locational determinants of FDI and the motives of Chinese FDI in Cameroon, and the challenges faced by Chinese FDI in Cameroon. This research is motivated by China’s interest in African countries as well as the reciprocal interest in Chinese FDI by African countries, especially Cameroon. While various FDI theories and previous empirical studies indicate that macro-locational determinants of FDI constitute a country’s principal comparative advantage to attract FDI, there is still no universally acceptable set of macro-locational determinants of FDI. Furthermore, some empirical studies assert that Chinese FDI does not follow conventional FDI theories or western approaches to FDI, especially when investing in African countries. It is suggested that some widely accepted macro-locational determinants of FDI are frequently ignored by Chinese FDI. While FDI theories identify four motives for FDI (resource-, market-, efficiency-, and strategic asset-seeking) as the main motives for investing in a foreign country, the motives for Chinese FDI, especially in Africa, have been questioned by some scholars, the media and politicians, due to the significant but seemingly counterintuitive investments made by Chinese state-owned FDI in politically unstable resource-rich African countries. Furthermore, differences in the motives of Chinese privately owned and state-owned firms identified in previous empirical studies have raised concerns, particularly regarding the motives of state-owned Chinese firms in Africa which suggest a stance of neo-colonialism by Chinese state-owned FDI. The research aims to identify the significant macro-locational determinants of Chinese FDI in Cameroon, to provide clarity on the motives of Chinese FDI and to identify the challenges faced by Chinese FDI in Cameroon. To achieve the aim of this research, hypothetical relationships based on FDI theory and previous empirical research were formulated between Chinese FDI and the proposed macro-locational determinants of FDI and the four identified motives of FDI. In this research, a positivist research paradigm using quantitative methods was followed. Accordingly, the research design and methodology was underpinned by the positivist paradigm. A descriptive and analytical survey methodology was utilised, using both primary and secondary data sources. Secondary data was collected from reliable and credible databases for the period 2004 to 2018 to generate a time series to test the hypothetical relationships pertaining to the macro-locational determinants of Chinese FDI in Cameroon. To test the hypothetical relationships pertaining to the motives of Chinese FDI and to identify the challenges of Chinese FDI in Cameroon, primary data was collected by means of a questionnaire using convenience and snowball sampling techniques. The validity of the findings on the macro-locational determinants of FDI was confirmed through unit root and cointegration tests. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Cronbach’s alpha coefficients were used to ensure the validity and reliability of the findings on the motives of FDI. To assess the hypothetical relationships on the motives for Chinese FDI, the hypothetical relationship on the macro-locational determinants of FDI was determined using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, t-tests, one-way ANOVA, descriptive statistics and logistic regression. In addition, descriptive statistics were used to analyse the data on the challenges of Chinese FDI. The findings indicated that the main macro-locational determinants of Chinese FDI in Cameroon included market size, political risk, limited trade openness, real effective exchange rate, interest rate and human capital. The findings also indicated that market-seeking constitutes the main motive of privately owned Chinese FDI in Cameroon. The findings also indicated that the top four challenges faced by Chinese FDI in Cameroon include corruption, the ambiguity of the legal system of Cameroon, the difficulty to negotiate with government and privatisation officials and high levels of taxes. The findings of this research serve as a test of theory, given that they determine whether the macro-locational determinants identified from FDI theories are also significant macro-locational determinants of Chinese FDI. Furthermore, the findings have the potential to assist in policy formulation aimed at encouraging Chinese FDI into Cameroon. The findings could also assist the Cameroonian government to allocate national resources efficiently by prioritising identified macro-locational determinants. The findings provide clarity on the motives of Chinese FDI in Cameroon and could assist the government to negotiate better deals that may enable Cameroon to benefit optimally from Chinese FDI.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Andangnui, Quintabella
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- Cameroon , Investments, Chinese -- Cameroon , Corporations, Foreign -- Cameroon , Industrial location -- Cameroon
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/163157 , vital:41014
- Description: This research falls under the general themes of macro-locational determinants and motives of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the challenges faced by FDIs. Specifically, the research focuses on macro-locational determinants of FDI and the motives of Chinese FDI in Cameroon, and the challenges faced by Chinese FDI in Cameroon. This research is motivated by China’s interest in African countries as well as the reciprocal interest in Chinese FDI by African countries, especially Cameroon. While various FDI theories and previous empirical studies indicate that macro-locational determinants of FDI constitute a country’s principal comparative advantage to attract FDI, there is still no universally acceptable set of macro-locational determinants of FDI. Furthermore, some empirical studies assert that Chinese FDI does not follow conventional FDI theories or western approaches to FDI, especially when investing in African countries. It is suggested that some widely accepted macro-locational determinants of FDI are frequently ignored by Chinese FDI. While FDI theories identify four motives for FDI (resource-, market-, efficiency-, and strategic asset-seeking) as the main motives for investing in a foreign country, the motives for Chinese FDI, especially in Africa, have been questioned by some scholars, the media and politicians, due to the significant but seemingly counterintuitive investments made by Chinese state-owned FDI in politically unstable resource-rich African countries. Furthermore, differences in the motives of Chinese privately owned and state-owned firms identified in previous empirical studies have raised concerns, particularly regarding the motives of state-owned Chinese firms in Africa which suggest a stance of neo-colonialism by Chinese state-owned FDI. The research aims to identify the significant macro-locational determinants of Chinese FDI in Cameroon, to provide clarity on the motives of Chinese FDI and to identify the challenges faced by Chinese FDI in Cameroon. To achieve the aim of this research, hypothetical relationships based on FDI theory and previous empirical research were formulated between Chinese FDI and the proposed macro-locational determinants of FDI and the four identified motives of FDI. In this research, a positivist research paradigm using quantitative methods was followed. Accordingly, the research design and methodology was underpinned by the positivist paradigm. A descriptive and analytical survey methodology was utilised, using both primary and secondary data sources. Secondary data was collected from reliable and credible databases for the period 2004 to 2018 to generate a time series to test the hypothetical relationships pertaining to the macro-locational determinants of Chinese FDI in Cameroon. To test the hypothetical relationships pertaining to the motives of Chinese FDI and to identify the challenges of Chinese FDI in Cameroon, primary data was collected by means of a questionnaire using convenience and snowball sampling techniques. The validity of the findings on the macro-locational determinants of FDI was confirmed through unit root and cointegration tests. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Cronbach’s alpha coefficients were used to ensure the validity and reliability of the findings on the motives of FDI. To assess the hypothetical relationships on the motives for Chinese FDI, the hypothetical relationship on the macro-locational determinants of FDI was determined using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, t-tests, one-way ANOVA, descriptive statistics and logistic regression. In addition, descriptive statistics were used to analyse the data on the challenges of Chinese FDI. The findings indicated that the main macro-locational determinants of Chinese FDI in Cameroon included market size, political risk, limited trade openness, real effective exchange rate, interest rate and human capital. The findings also indicated that market-seeking constitutes the main motive of privately owned Chinese FDI in Cameroon. The findings also indicated that the top four challenges faced by Chinese FDI in Cameroon include corruption, the ambiguity of the legal system of Cameroon, the difficulty to negotiate with government and privatisation officials and high levels of taxes. The findings of this research serve as a test of theory, given that they determine whether the macro-locational determinants identified from FDI theories are also significant macro-locational determinants of Chinese FDI. Furthermore, the findings have the potential to assist in policy formulation aimed at encouraging Chinese FDI into Cameroon. The findings could also assist the Cameroonian government to allocate national resources efficiently by prioritising identified macro-locational determinants. The findings provide clarity on the motives of Chinese FDI in Cameroon and could assist the government to negotiate better deals that may enable Cameroon to benefit optimally from Chinese FDI.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Macroeconomic convergence within SADC : implications for the formation of a regional monetary union
- Authors: Johns, Michael Ryan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1023 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002758 , Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Description: Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Johns, Michael Ryan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1023 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002758 , Southern African Development Community , Economic and Monetary Union , Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Economic policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- Africa, Southern , Monetary unions , Macroeconomics
- Description: Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Macroeconomic determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Junkin, Kyle
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Macroeconomics Risk management -- South Africa Stock exchanges -- South Africa Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1016 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002751
- Description: This study investigates whether stock prices in South Africa are influenced by macroeconomic variables, and furthermore, the effects of financial crises on stock prices. The relationship between stock prices and the macroeconomy is a particularly important issue for investors, since a thorough understanding of such a relationship is likely to yield profitable or risk mitigating opportunities. Using monthly data for the period 1995 to 2010 the study focused at a macro level using the FTSE/JSE All Share Index, and at a micro level using sector indices. These included the construction and materials, financial, food producers’, general retailers, industrial, mining and pharmaceuticals indices. The Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach was employed, along with impulse response and variance decomposition tests to address the issue. The results showed that macroeconomic variables do have a significant influence on stock prices in South Africa. Also, the influences of these variables were found to have an inconsistent effect across the sectors under investigation. For example, inflation was found to negatively influence the All Share Index, but impacted the industrial index positively. These inconsistent influences on the various sectors were seen to have important diversification implications for investors. The impact of past financial crises proved to be significant on certain indices, however, indices such as that of the pharmaceuticals sector was found to be largely unaffected by such crises. The findings of the study were discussed through an investor’s perspective, and recommendations on investment decisions were given. The limitations of the study were such that certain results may have been influenced by a mis-specification of variables, particularly the Treasury bill rate.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Junkin, Kyle
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Macroeconomics Risk management -- South Africa Stock exchanges -- South Africa Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1016 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002751
- Description: This study investigates whether stock prices in South Africa are influenced by macroeconomic variables, and furthermore, the effects of financial crises on stock prices. The relationship between stock prices and the macroeconomy is a particularly important issue for investors, since a thorough understanding of such a relationship is likely to yield profitable or risk mitigating opportunities. Using monthly data for the period 1995 to 2010 the study focused at a macro level using the FTSE/JSE All Share Index, and at a micro level using sector indices. These included the construction and materials, financial, food producers’, general retailers, industrial, mining and pharmaceuticals indices. The Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach was employed, along with impulse response and variance decomposition tests to address the issue. The results showed that macroeconomic variables do have a significant influence on stock prices in South Africa. Also, the influences of these variables were found to have an inconsistent effect across the sectors under investigation. For example, inflation was found to negatively influence the All Share Index, but impacted the industrial index positively. These inconsistent influences on the various sectors were seen to have important diversification implications for investors. The impact of past financial crises proved to be significant on certain indices, however, indices such as that of the pharmaceuticals sector was found to be largely unaffected by such crises. The findings of the study were discussed through an investor’s perspective, and recommendations on investment decisions were given. The limitations of the study were such that certain results may have been influenced by a mis-specification of variables, particularly the Treasury bill rate.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Malawi’s trilemma: monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration
- Authors: Kamamkhudza, Charity
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Malawi -- Economic conditions , Economic policy -- Malawi , Monetary policy -- Malawi , Foreign exchange rates -- Malawi
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/41634 , vital:25112
- Description: Malawi has, in the last few decades, undergone several reforms relating to monetary, exchange rate and financial integration policies in a bid to achieve sustainable economic growth. Despite these reforms, however, the country has barely attained desirable macroeconomic performance. This study sets out to establish if the need for these policy reforms is due to the fact that the country is constrained from the simultaneous achievement of optimal levels of monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration, as postulated by the ‘trilemma’. The trilemma is evaluated using an approach introduced by Aizenman et al. (2008), in which the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is applied to a model in which a constant is regressed on indices constructed for the policy intermediate goals; the results indicate that the trilemma is a binding constraint in Malawi and that the largest trade-off is between exchange rate stability and financial integration. Given these constraints, the study also considers the combination of the trilemma intermediate policy goals that has been dominant in the country in the last three decades, using predicted values from the model and a graphical analysis to explore this objective. The analysis reveals that Malawi has, on average, prioritised exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence at the expense of financial integration. The study also assesses how the trilemma intermediate policy goals affect macroeconomic performance, specifically regarding output growth rate and inflation. The results reveal that exchange rate stability is associated with faster output growth, financial integration is associated with higher inflation, and that monetary policy independence is not a significant factor. The results emphasise the importance of consistent stability of the exchange rate if Malawi is to achieve faster and sustainable economic growth. Given this, policy makers must be cautious, as the current floating exchange rate regime, combined with financial integration, could lead to slow growth and high inflation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Kamamkhudza, Charity
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Malawi -- Economic conditions , Economic policy -- Malawi , Monetary policy -- Malawi , Foreign exchange rates -- Malawi
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/41634 , vital:25112
- Description: Malawi has, in the last few decades, undergone several reforms relating to monetary, exchange rate and financial integration policies in a bid to achieve sustainable economic growth. Despite these reforms, however, the country has barely attained desirable macroeconomic performance. This study sets out to establish if the need for these policy reforms is due to the fact that the country is constrained from the simultaneous achievement of optimal levels of monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration, as postulated by the ‘trilemma’. The trilemma is evaluated using an approach introduced by Aizenman et al. (2008), in which the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is applied to a model in which a constant is regressed on indices constructed for the policy intermediate goals; the results indicate that the trilemma is a binding constraint in Malawi and that the largest trade-off is between exchange rate stability and financial integration. Given these constraints, the study also considers the combination of the trilemma intermediate policy goals that has been dominant in the country in the last three decades, using predicted values from the model and a graphical analysis to explore this objective. The analysis reveals that Malawi has, on average, prioritised exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence at the expense of financial integration. The study also assesses how the trilemma intermediate policy goals affect macroeconomic performance, specifically regarding output growth rate and inflation. The results reveal that exchange rate stability is associated with faster output growth, financial integration is associated with higher inflation, and that monetary policy independence is not a significant factor. The results emphasise the importance of consistent stability of the exchange rate if Malawi is to achieve faster and sustainable economic growth. Given this, policy makers must be cautious, as the current floating exchange rate regime, combined with financial integration, could lead to slow growth and high inflation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
Market timing and portfolio returns: an empirical analysis of the potential profitability of buy-sell strategies, based on South African equities 2009-2018
- Authors: Mulweli, Ramulongo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Charts, diagrams, etc. , Investment analysis -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144487 , vital:38350
- Description: South Africa’s financial markets have become larger and more complex over recent decades. The number of market participants who are using technical analysis techniques to predict the market’s movement has been growing rapidly. This research aims to investigate if historical share prices can be used when forecasting the market’s direction and to examine the profitability of the Japanese candlestick patterns. The study is based on ten companies selected from the JSE top 40 2019 composition. These are Aspen Pharmacy Holding, Capitec Bank Holding LTD, Discovery LTD, Kumba Iron Ore LTD, Mondi PLC, Mr. Price Group LTD, MTN Group LTD, Naspers LTD, SASOL LTD, and Shoprite Holdings LTD. These were selected from the JSE top 40 based on market capitalization and sector. This research analyzes eight candlestick reversal patterns; four are bullish patterns namely: doji star, hammer, bullish engulfing and the piercing lines and the other four are bearish patterns namely: shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the dark cloud cover. The ARCH and GARCH models are used to test for correlation between past share prices and future share prices and the binomial test and the mean return calculations were used to test the profitability of candlestick patterns. The sample is from Thomson DataStream 2019 and IRESS SA 2019 and covers ten years with 2496 observations starting from 02 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The findings from the ARCH and GARCH tests revealed that there is a serial correlation between the returns from the previous day and the returns for the current day. The results from the mean returns and the binomial tests show strong evidence that the shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the bulling engulfing are statistically significant in predicting the share price movements. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the dark cloud cover, piercing lines, and the bullish doji can predict share price movements. Additionally, further studies on this topic could be improved by adding different candlestick patterns and the total number of companies analyzed. The results could also be improved by analyzing the candlestick reversal patterns when they are used with other trading rules such as support resistance levels and oscillators.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mulweli, Ramulongo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Charts, diagrams, etc. , Investment analysis -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa , Stocks -- South Africa -- Cast studies
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/144487 , vital:38350
- Description: South Africa’s financial markets have become larger and more complex over recent decades. The number of market participants who are using technical analysis techniques to predict the market’s movement has been growing rapidly. This research aims to investigate if historical share prices can be used when forecasting the market’s direction and to examine the profitability of the Japanese candlestick patterns. The study is based on ten companies selected from the JSE top 40 2019 composition. These are Aspen Pharmacy Holding, Capitec Bank Holding LTD, Discovery LTD, Kumba Iron Ore LTD, Mondi PLC, Mr. Price Group LTD, MTN Group LTD, Naspers LTD, SASOL LTD, and Shoprite Holdings LTD. These were selected from the JSE top 40 based on market capitalization and sector. This research analyzes eight candlestick reversal patterns; four are bullish patterns namely: doji star, hammer, bullish engulfing and the piercing lines and the other four are bearish patterns namely: shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the dark cloud cover. The ARCH and GARCH models are used to test for correlation between past share prices and future share prices and the binomial test and the mean return calculations were used to test the profitability of candlestick patterns. The sample is from Thomson DataStream 2019 and IRESS SA 2019 and covers ten years with 2496 observations starting from 02 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. The findings from the ARCH and GARCH tests revealed that there is a serial correlation between the returns from the previous day and the returns for the current day. The results from the mean returns and the binomial tests show strong evidence that the shooting star, hanging man, bearish engulfing and the bulling engulfing are statistically significant in predicting the share price movements. On the other hand, there was no evidence that the dark cloud cover, piercing lines, and the bullish doji can predict share price movements. Additionally, further studies on this topic could be improved by adding different candlestick patterns and the total number of companies analyzed. The results could also be improved by analyzing the candlestick reversal patterns when they are used with other trading rules such as support resistance levels and oscillators.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Measures and determinants of productivity growth in the South African manufacturing sector
- Authors: Wright, Anthony John
- Date: 1994
- Subjects: Industrial productivity -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1019 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002754 , Industrial productivity -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical "sources-of-growth" approach is applied to derive total factor productivity (TFP) growth measures for manufacturing industries in South Africa. Although South Africa's recorded industrial TFP growth measures have been persistently low in absolute terms, this performance is not significantly worse than the industrial TFP growth performance of other developing countries. In some periods there is evidence of a significant variability in TFP performance across industries. The measures also indicate that TFP growth has worsened in the 1980s, particularly in the intermediate-capital intensive and labour intensive industries. However, there are various problems with interpreting neoclassical TFP growth measures as indicators of production efficiency. In fact, as TFP growth is derived as a residual, it may measure many factors besides production efficiency. Alternative growth theories are used to assess the fundamental determinants of productivity growth. These provide a more plausible conceptualisation of the process by which productivity growth is generated than the neoclassical growth theory does. However, this analysis also provides little empirical evidence of which underlying factors have had the most influence on productivity growth in South African manufacturing. Hence, the relative importance of possible candidates can only really be assessed qualitatively and on the basis of micro evidence. However, these assessments, and the assumptions underlying the postulated causal connections (between the identified factors and productivity growth), have a major impact on policy design. In this respect, on the basis of the framework provided by the evolutionary and other recent growth theories, various policy implications are drawn, and these are contrasted with the policy proposals of other South African analysts. This thesis concludes that policies need to be designed with the central objective of enhancing the technological capabilities of South African firms. Trade policies will not be sufficient for achieving this objective. Education and training policies, technology, competition and labour market policies are also crucial. However, since the fundamental causes of productivity growth remain somewhat of a mystery, there is a need to be sceptical of simple policy prescriptions. In this respect, this thesis is highly critical of the World Bank's position that productivity gains will be reaped from the exposure of firms to international competition that trade liberalisation policies entail.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1994
- Authors: Wright, Anthony John
- Date: 1994
- Subjects: Industrial productivity -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1019 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002754 , Industrial productivity -- South Africa
- Description: The neoclassical "sources-of-growth" approach is applied to derive total factor productivity (TFP) growth measures for manufacturing industries in South Africa. Although South Africa's recorded industrial TFP growth measures have been persistently low in absolute terms, this performance is not significantly worse than the industrial TFP growth performance of other developing countries. In some periods there is evidence of a significant variability in TFP performance across industries. The measures also indicate that TFP growth has worsened in the 1980s, particularly in the intermediate-capital intensive and labour intensive industries. However, there are various problems with interpreting neoclassical TFP growth measures as indicators of production efficiency. In fact, as TFP growth is derived as a residual, it may measure many factors besides production efficiency. Alternative growth theories are used to assess the fundamental determinants of productivity growth. These provide a more plausible conceptualisation of the process by which productivity growth is generated than the neoclassical growth theory does. However, this analysis also provides little empirical evidence of which underlying factors have had the most influence on productivity growth in South African manufacturing. Hence, the relative importance of possible candidates can only really be assessed qualitatively and on the basis of micro evidence. However, these assessments, and the assumptions underlying the postulated causal connections (between the identified factors and productivity growth), have a major impact on policy design. In this respect, on the basis of the framework provided by the evolutionary and other recent growth theories, various policy implications are drawn, and these are contrasted with the policy proposals of other South African analysts. This thesis concludes that policies need to be designed with the central objective of enhancing the technological capabilities of South African firms. Trade policies will not be sufficient for achieving this objective. Education and training policies, technology, competition and labour market policies are also crucial. However, since the fundamental causes of productivity growth remain somewhat of a mystery, there is a need to be sceptical of simple policy prescriptions. In this respect, this thesis is highly critical of the World Bank's position that productivity gains will be reaped from the exposure of firms to international competition that trade liberalisation policies entail.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1994
Measuring the elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: implications for future demand and supply
- Authors: Kosiorek, Sebastian
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa , Electric utilities -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Renewable energy sources -- South Africa , Energy policy -- South Africa , Integrated Resource Plan
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62472 , vital:28196
- Description: A key economic issue for government is the ability to effectively match electricity supply to electricity demand, because of the substantial economic losses in the case of where there is too little supply, or the waste of scarce resources where there is too much supply. In the case of South Africa, this issue, the importance of which was highlighted by the power shortages and associated “rolling blackouts” experience in 2008, has led to the creation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a means to decide how energy policy will be developed. Recently, however, the IRP 2010 and its subsequent 2013 and 2016 (draft) updates have been criticised as being too optimistic in regards to their projections of economic growth and electricity demand, making the recommendations in these documents to be flawed. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2017, together with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing for cointegration, this paper measures changes in the elasticity of electricity demand as a result of the massive price hikes over the past decade. Thereafter, the implications of changed electricity as well as possibly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the future for forecasts of possible future demand for electricity are examined. From these revised forecasts, it is possible to make appropriate recommendations in regards to electricity supply policy for South Africa including what possible energy mix is needed as well as the requirements for creating new supply to meet possible future demand. It is concluded that future electricity demand is likely to be much lower than forecast in the IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 documents. The degree of uncertainty in electricity demand growth suggests that large-scale increases in supply capacity taking years to construct, such as coal or nuclear, should be avoided. Small, incremental increases in supply that are able to come on stream swiftly, such as gas, solar and wind power, are likely to be more appropriate for meeting South Africa’s future needs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Kosiorek, Sebastian
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Electric power consumption -- South Africa , Electric power distribution -- South Africa , Electric power production -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa , Electric utilities -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Renewable energy sources -- South Africa , Energy policy -- South Africa , Integrated Resource Plan
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62472 , vital:28196
- Description: A key economic issue for government is the ability to effectively match electricity supply to electricity demand, because of the substantial economic losses in the case of where there is too little supply, or the waste of scarce resources where there is too much supply. In the case of South Africa, this issue, the importance of which was highlighted by the power shortages and associated “rolling blackouts” experience in 2008, has led to the creation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a means to decide how energy policy will be developed. Recently, however, the IRP 2010 and its subsequent 2013 and 2016 (draft) updates have been criticised as being too optimistic in regards to their projections of economic growth and electricity demand, making the recommendations in these documents to be flawed. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2017, together with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing for cointegration, this paper measures changes in the elasticity of electricity demand as a result of the massive price hikes over the past decade. Thereafter, the implications of changed electricity as well as possibly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the future for forecasts of possible future demand for electricity are examined. From these revised forecasts, it is possible to make appropriate recommendations in regards to electricity supply policy for South Africa including what possible energy mix is needed as well as the requirements for creating new supply to meet possible future demand. It is concluded that future electricity demand is likely to be much lower than forecast in the IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 documents. The degree of uncertainty in electricity demand growth suggests that large-scale increases in supply capacity taking years to construct, such as coal or nuclear, should be avoided. Small, incremental increases in supply that are able to come on stream swiftly, such as gas, solar and wind power, are likely to be more appropriate for meeting South Africa’s future needs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Methods and policies of the distribution of footwear in South Africa
- Authors: Lipschitz, Gustav
- Date: 1947
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:21160 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/6639
- Description: This thesis is mainly based on information obtained by discussion with footwear manufacturers, wholesale merchants, retailers and many other business men who were thoroughly acquainted with merchandising methods and policies. Many thanks to all those who assisted. Government Blue Books, other published and unpublished Reports and Economic and Trade journals were consulted wherever possible.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1947
- Authors: Lipschitz, Gustav
- Date: 1947
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:21160 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/6639
- Description: This thesis is mainly based on information obtained by discussion with footwear manufacturers, wholesale merchants, retailers and many other business men who were thoroughly acquainted with merchandising methods and policies. Many thanks to all those who assisted. Government Blue Books, other published and unpublished Reports and Economic and Trade journals were consulted wherever possible.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1947