Elasticity of the South African economy towards portfolio investments in BRICS countries
- Authors: Taonezvi, Lovemore
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44537 , vital:38141
- Description: The emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have been experiencing high growth rates since the turn of the millennium, whereas economic growth has been elusive in South Africa. As the newest member of BRICS, South Africa is expected to economically benefit through, amongst others, increases in capital flows, foreign investments by local firms, and increases in trade. Such benefits are anticipated to propel the country’s economic growth, thereby helping it to tackle its chronic problems of high unemployment, poverty, and economic inequality. The inclusion of South Africa in BRICS has, however, been viewed by critics as erroneous, since the country has, inter alia, poor economic growth; a small economy and population; and political instability. While foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows to South Africa have surged in recent years, economic growth has remained lacklustre. These flows have also faced sudden reversals, especially during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. With the potential to leverage its growth from intra-BRICS FPI inflows, it becomes of paramount significance for policymakers to have knowledge of the South African economy’s responsiveness to such inflows. With a theoretical framework based on the endogenous growth model, an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function was extended in this thesis in order to study the relationship between BRICS growth and intra-BRICS FPI in a dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) context. Similarly, the South African economy’s elasticity towards intraBRICS FPI was estimated. Vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis was used to evaluate the responsiveness of South Africa’s economy to an innovative shock to intra-BRICS FPI. Annual and quarterly data for the period 2000-2016 were used in panel data and VAR analysis, respectively. It was found that intra-BRICS FPI flows have a positive and statistically significant relationship with BRICS growth, while the elasticity of the South African economy to these flows is estimated at 0.007. Additionally, the efficiency and accessibility dimensions of financial market development do not assist FPI in promoting growth in BRICS, while financial market depth does. South Africa’s BRICS membership has a positive effect on its own growth, while for other BRICS nations, this membership is negative and insignificant. Credit rating downgrades have a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth, while the negative impact for inflation, government expenditure, and total labour employment is significant. Conversely, gross capital formation and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with BRICS growth. The study also determined that a unit shock on intra-BRICS FPI resulted in negative fluctuations of South Africa’s economy within the first eight quarters before being positive and mostly constant thereafter. By supplementing domestic savings and facilitating the international integration of domestic financial markets, FPI promotes growth in BRICS. The short-term, ease of reversibility, and speculative nature of FPI are amongst some of the reasons for its destabilising effect on South Africa’s economy. Furthermore, inflation is a key determinant of FPI inflows to South Africa. Additional BRIC cooperation in FPI and trade; increased investments in domestic capital; reductions of inflation and corruption; investments in education and skills development; and stock market reforms are some of the recommendations for BRIC, and South Africa in particular. South Africa can consider prudential use of a mix of capital account controls, as well as fiscal and monetary policies to cushion its economy from FPI shocks in the short- to medium-term.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Taonezvi, Lovemore
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/44537 , vital:38141
- Description: The emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have been experiencing high growth rates since the turn of the millennium, whereas economic growth has been elusive in South Africa. As the newest member of BRICS, South Africa is expected to economically benefit through, amongst others, increases in capital flows, foreign investments by local firms, and increases in trade. Such benefits are anticipated to propel the country’s economic growth, thereby helping it to tackle its chronic problems of high unemployment, poverty, and economic inequality. The inclusion of South Africa in BRICS has, however, been viewed by critics as erroneous, since the country has, inter alia, poor economic growth; a small economy and population; and political instability. While foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows to South Africa have surged in recent years, economic growth has remained lacklustre. These flows have also faced sudden reversals, especially during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. With the potential to leverage its growth from intra-BRICS FPI inflows, it becomes of paramount significance for policymakers to have knowledge of the South African economy’s responsiveness to such inflows. With a theoretical framework based on the endogenous growth model, an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function was extended in this thesis in order to study the relationship between BRICS growth and intra-BRICS FPI in a dynamic panel data generalised method of moments (GMM) context. Similarly, the South African economy’s elasticity towards intraBRICS FPI was estimated. Vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis was used to evaluate the responsiveness of South Africa’s economy to an innovative shock to intra-BRICS FPI. Annual and quarterly data for the period 2000-2016 were used in panel data and VAR analysis, respectively. It was found that intra-BRICS FPI flows have a positive and statistically significant relationship with BRICS growth, while the elasticity of the South African economy to these flows is estimated at 0.007. Additionally, the efficiency and accessibility dimensions of financial market development do not assist FPI in promoting growth in BRICS, while financial market depth does. South Africa’s BRICS membership has a positive effect on its own growth, while for other BRICS nations, this membership is negative and insignificant. Credit rating downgrades have a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth, while the negative impact for inflation, government expenditure, and total labour employment is significant. Conversely, gross capital formation and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with BRICS growth. The study also determined that a unit shock on intra-BRICS FPI resulted in negative fluctuations of South Africa’s economy within the first eight quarters before being positive and mostly constant thereafter. By supplementing domestic savings and facilitating the international integration of domestic financial markets, FPI promotes growth in BRICS. The short-term, ease of reversibility, and speculative nature of FPI are amongst some of the reasons for its destabilising effect on South Africa’s economy. Furthermore, inflation is a key determinant of FPI inflows to South Africa. Additional BRIC cooperation in FPI and trade; increased investments in domestic capital; reductions of inflation and corruption; investments in education and skills development; and stock market reforms are some of the recommendations for BRIC, and South Africa in particular. South Africa can consider prudential use of a mix of capital account controls, as well as fiscal and monetary policies to cushion its economy from FPI shocks in the short- to medium-term.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The impact of foreign debt on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Shayanewako, V B
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Debts, External -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Government spending policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11477 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1015140 , Debts, External -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Government spending policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Description: This study analyses the economic impact between foreign debt and economic growth in South Africa. By fitting a production function model to annual data for the period 1980-2011, the study examines the dynamic effect of debt service, capital stock and labour force on the economic growth of the country. By following Cunningham (1993), it has identified the long-run and short-run causal relationships among the included variables. The results indicate that the debt servicing burden has a negative effect on the productivity of labour and capital, and thereby affect economic growth adversely. The results also illustrate that the debt service ratio tends to negatively affect GDP and the rate of economic growth in the long-run, which, in turn, reduces the ability of the country to service its debt. Similarly, the estimated error correction term shows the existence of a significant long-run causal relationship among the specified variables. Overall, the results suggest the existence of short-run and long-run causal relationships running from debt service to GDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Shayanewako, V B
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Debts, External -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Government spending policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11477 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1015140 , Debts, External -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Government spending policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Description: This study analyses the economic impact between foreign debt and economic growth in South Africa. By fitting a production function model to annual data for the period 1980-2011, the study examines the dynamic effect of debt service, capital stock and labour force on the economic growth of the country. By following Cunningham (1993), it has identified the long-run and short-run causal relationships among the included variables. The results indicate that the debt servicing burden has a negative effect on the productivity of labour and capital, and thereby affect economic growth adversely. The results also illustrate that the debt service ratio tends to negatively affect GDP and the rate of economic growth in the long-run, which, in turn, reduces the ability of the country to service its debt. Similarly, the estimated error correction term shows the existence of a significant long-run causal relationship among the specified variables. Overall, the results suggest the existence of short-run and long-run causal relationships running from debt service to GDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The effectiveness of business incubators in enhancing growth, survival and performance of small, medium and micro enterprises in the Eastern Cape province, South Africa
- Authors: Sarakunze, Annie.
- Date: 2014-11
- Subjects: Entrepreneurship , Economic development -- South Africa , Small business
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/26786 , vital:66005
- Description: In both developed and developing countries, the growth of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprise sector is considered an important factor in boosting the economic well-being of a country. The governments of many countries play a basic role in creating policies and programmes which support the growth of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises. One of the initiatives used by the governments to nurture small businesses is business incubation.This study investigated the effectiveness of business incubators in enhancing growth, survival and performance of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) in selected areas of the Eastern Cape Province. The objectives of this study were to assess the impact of business incubation on the performance of SMMEs, determine the impact of business incubation on the growth of the SMME, to assess the impact of business incubation on the survival of the SMMEs and to investigate whether SMMEs are satisfied with the role of business incubators in their areas.This study employed a stratified simple random sampling technique. The population was first divided into six homogeneous strata and then simple random sampling was then employed. The self-administered questionnaires were then distributed into each and every stratum randomly. Simple random sampling was used because it enabled each and every member in the strata to have an equal chance of being selected. Owners, managers and employees were used as respondents in this study and a total sample of 200 SMMEs answered the questionnaire. The study followed a quantitative research design as it involved variables such as growth, firm performance and survival which have measures that involves the use of figures such as sales, number of employees and total value of assets. The data was analysed by Anova, Pearson Chi-Square and T-test statistical methods in order to arrive at findings and conclusions. Based on the findings from this survey it was found that business incubators are effective in enhancing growth, survival and performance of SMMEs. Although other researchers found that there are no significant variations in growth, survival and performance of incubated and non-incubated businesses, this study however recognizes the importance of business incubation to SMMEs. This study concurs with most findings by many researchers of business incubation and thus recommends vigorous business incubation awareness to the SMMEs and networking. , Thesis (MBm) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce , 2014
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014-11
- Authors: Sarakunze, Annie.
- Date: 2014-11
- Subjects: Entrepreneurship , Economic development -- South Africa , Small business
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/26786 , vital:66005
- Description: In both developed and developing countries, the growth of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprise sector is considered an important factor in boosting the economic well-being of a country. The governments of many countries play a basic role in creating policies and programmes which support the growth of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises. One of the initiatives used by the governments to nurture small businesses is business incubation.This study investigated the effectiveness of business incubators in enhancing growth, survival and performance of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) in selected areas of the Eastern Cape Province. The objectives of this study were to assess the impact of business incubation on the performance of SMMEs, determine the impact of business incubation on the growth of the SMME, to assess the impact of business incubation on the survival of the SMMEs and to investigate whether SMMEs are satisfied with the role of business incubators in their areas.This study employed a stratified simple random sampling technique. The population was first divided into six homogeneous strata and then simple random sampling was then employed. The self-administered questionnaires were then distributed into each and every stratum randomly. Simple random sampling was used because it enabled each and every member in the strata to have an equal chance of being selected. Owners, managers and employees were used as respondents in this study and a total sample of 200 SMMEs answered the questionnaire. The study followed a quantitative research design as it involved variables such as growth, firm performance and survival which have measures that involves the use of figures such as sales, number of employees and total value of assets. The data was analysed by Anova, Pearson Chi-Square and T-test statistical methods in order to arrive at findings and conclusions. Based on the findings from this survey it was found that business incubators are effective in enhancing growth, survival and performance of SMMEs. Although other researchers found that there are no significant variations in growth, survival and performance of incubated and non-incubated businesses, this study however recognizes the importance of business incubation to SMMEs. This study concurs with most findings by many researchers of business incubation and thus recommends vigorous business incubation awareness to the SMMEs and networking. , Thesis (MBm) -- Faculty of Management and Commerce , 2014
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014-11
The impact of Taxation and corruption on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Rabinda, Aluwani Malvin
- Date: 2022-12
- Subjects: Taxation , Corrupt practices , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , Thesis
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/59832 , vital:62444
- Description: Developing countries, such as South Africa, have been on a mission to reduce corruption, particularly in the public sector, and to collect as much revenue as possible through taxation to fund the government expenditures. Low levels of corruption, preferable zero and higher tax collections, can boost a country's economic growth and development by creating jobs and increasing economic activity, which leads to economic growth. South Africa is one of the economies that are characterised by high levels of corruption. For South Africa to attract more foreign investors in the country, it should ensure that resources are used efficiently and that any act of corruption is punished. This study looked at the effects of taxation and corruption on economic growth from 1975 to 2019. An econometric analysis technique was used in the study to test the impact of taxation and corruption on economic growth. The augmented Dickey–Fuller method was used to test for unit root. According to the results of the tests, unit root l(1) is rejected in favour of the stationarity alternative. The empirical analysis used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration advocated by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) to examine for the longrun equilibrium among taxation and corruption on economic growth. The Wald causality test was also used to investigate the causal relationship between taxation, corruption, and economic growth. According to the Bounds test results, there is long-run co-integrating positive relationship between trade openness and GDP, gross capital formation, Corruption, and income taxation. Furthermore, when dependent variable was tested for longrun impact, the results confirmed that taxation and corruption have insignificant impact on economic growth. Trade openness, as a percentage of GDP, has insignificant positive relationship with economic growth in South Africa. Gross Capital Formation, as a percentage of GDP, is positively related to economic growth. Furthermore, short-run findings suggest a positive significant relationship between trade openness as a percentage of Gross domestic product. Corruption and income taxation have negative and insignificant effect on GDP in the short term. Furthermore, GDP and gross capital formation have negative relationship. V Government should also encourage the culture of transparency and accountability as far as corruption is concerned to stimulate economic growth. This will also create a culture where government officials are called upon to explain their government expenditure patterns and be held accountable for any misuse of any funds flowing into the country. , Thesis (MCom)-- Faculty of Business and Economic Science, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-12
- Authors: Rabinda, Aluwani Malvin
- Date: 2022-12
- Subjects: Taxation , Corrupt practices , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , Thesis
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/59832 , vital:62444
- Description: Developing countries, such as South Africa, have been on a mission to reduce corruption, particularly in the public sector, and to collect as much revenue as possible through taxation to fund the government expenditures. Low levels of corruption, preferable zero and higher tax collections, can boost a country's economic growth and development by creating jobs and increasing economic activity, which leads to economic growth. South Africa is one of the economies that are characterised by high levels of corruption. For South Africa to attract more foreign investors in the country, it should ensure that resources are used efficiently and that any act of corruption is punished. This study looked at the effects of taxation and corruption on economic growth from 1975 to 2019. An econometric analysis technique was used in the study to test the impact of taxation and corruption on economic growth. The augmented Dickey–Fuller method was used to test for unit root. According to the results of the tests, unit root l(1) is rejected in favour of the stationarity alternative. The empirical analysis used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration advocated by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) to examine for the longrun equilibrium among taxation and corruption on economic growth. The Wald causality test was also used to investigate the causal relationship between taxation, corruption, and economic growth. According to the Bounds test results, there is long-run co-integrating positive relationship between trade openness and GDP, gross capital formation, Corruption, and income taxation. Furthermore, when dependent variable was tested for longrun impact, the results confirmed that taxation and corruption have insignificant impact on economic growth. Trade openness, as a percentage of GDP, has insignificant positive relationship with economic growth in South Africa. Gross Capital Formation, as a percentage of GDP, is positively related to economic growth. Furthermore, short-run findings suggest a positive significant relationship between trade openness as a percentage of Gross domestic product. Corruption and income taxation have negative and insignificant effect on GDP in the short term. Furthermore, GDP and gross capital formation have negative relationship. V Government should also encourage the culture of transparency and accountability as far as corruption is concerned to stimulate economic growth. This will also create a culture where government officials are called upon to explain their government expenditure patterns and be held accountable for any misuse of any funds flowing into the country. , Thesis (MCom)-- Faculty of Business and Economic Science, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-12
Impact of the global financial crisis on economic growth: implications for South Africa and other developing economies
- Authors: Savy, Neil Edward
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , Gross domestic product -- Developing countries , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- Developing countries , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1117 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017542
- Description: This paper examines the impact of the recent global financial crisis on economic growth in developing economies and South Africa in particular. It explores whether the events experienced by developing countries conform to what would be anticipated from economic theory. This is done by firstly comparing country growth forecasts for 2012 captured in 2008 at the beginning of the crisis to actual 2012 GDP growth data. Secondly, panel data analysis is used to investigate three important transmission channels, namely those of Trade, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates for 25 developing economies. The results suggest that economic forecasters in 2008 on average overestimated GDP growth for 2012 by -21.6 percent (excluding Venezuela). The only important transmission channel identified using Trend analysis to explain this negative impact on growth was capital flows. However when using Panel regression analysis all three channels were found to explain the economic impact of the crisis on GDP growth for developing countries, conforming to economic theory. It was discovered that, contrary to what was initially expected, portfolio inflows actually increased for most developing countries during the crisis. This possibly can be explained by the impact of quantitative easing in the USA. South Africa was found to have been negatively impacted by the global financial crisis, but to a lesser extent when compared to most other developing countries. The findings are important for global investors looking for new investment opportunities. The extent to which individual economies are “decoupled” from developed economies’ performance provides possible opportunities for diversifying risk through a geographic spread of investor portfolios.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Savy, Neil Edward
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , Gross domestic product -- Developing countries , Gross domestic product -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- South Africa , Economic forecasting -- Developing countries , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1117 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017542
- Description: This paper examines the impact of the recent global financial crisis on economic growth in developing economies and South Africa in particular. It explores whether the events experienced by developing countries conform to what would be anticipated from economic theory. This is done by firstly comparing country growth forecasts for 2012 captured in 2008 at the beginning of the crisis to actual 2012 GDP growth data. Secondly, panel data analysis is used to investigate three important transmission channels, namely those of Trade, Capital Flows and Exchange Rates for 25 developing economies. The results suggest that economic forecasters in 2008 on average overestimated GDP growth for 2012 by -21.6 percent (excluding Venezuela). The only important transmission channel identified using Trend analysis to explain this negative impact on growth was capital flows. However when using Panel regression analysis all three channels were found to explain the economic impact of the crisis on GDP growth for developing countries, conforming to economic theory. It was discovered that, contrary to what was initially expected, portfolio inflows actually increased for most developing countries during the crisis. This possibly can be explained by the impact of quantitative easing in the USA. South Africa was found to have been negatively impacted by the global financial crisis, but to a lesser extent when compared to most other developing countries. The findings are important for global investors looking for new investment opportunities. The extent to which individual economies are “decoupled” from developed economies’ performance provides possible opportunities for diversifying risk through a geographic spread of investor portfolios.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Market participation and welfare of smallholder farmers in the Eastern Cape Province South Africa
- Lesala, Mahali Elizabeth https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9921-2190
- Authors: Lesala, Mahali Elizabeth https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9921-2190
- Date: 2021-06
- Subjects: Farms, Small , Economic development -- South Africa , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/20916 , vital:46745
- Description: The low market participation of smallholder farmers in markets has received enormous attention from scholars, both in the country and the Eastern Cape Province. However, it is not clear how low their market participation is including its implications on farmer’s welfare. The purpose of the study was to determine the extent to which smallholder farmers in the homelands of the Eastern Cape participate in output markets and assess how their participation in markets has affected wellbeing of their households. This information will have important practical implications for policy regarding appropriate pathways for poverty alleviation and livelihoods improvements in the rural areas of the Eastern Cape Province. Three irrigation schemes; Qamata, Zanyokwe and Tyefu irrigation schemes were selected for this study. A sample of 210 smallholder irrigators were interviewed by means of a close-ended questionnaire. The data were analysed by means of descriptive statistical tools, the multiple-level choice models and the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique. SPSS and STATA computer programmes were used to carry out all the estimations. The analysis established that, although agriculture is the primary activity for rural livelihoods, it is not the main contributor to family income. Rather, remittances and social grants were the dominant sources of household income in the Qamata, Zanyokwe and Tyefu areas. From the standpoint of market, maize and potatoes are the most popular crops, but potatoes dominate the market. This result confirms that maize is the staple crop and therefore mostly grown for home consumption while production of potatoes is market-oriented. The Market Participation Index (MPI) revealed that farmers sell at least 55 percent of their farm produce, implying that farmers have made some transition from subsistence to semi-commercial farming. However, farmers’ priority still remains food self-sufficiency and market participation only takes place after satisfying their home food needs. The results revealed that the significant factors influencing the farmers’ decisions and their extent of participation in output markets were the age, gender, marital status of the household head, primary occupation of household head, size of farm cultivated, government financial support, access to extension services and farmer’s membership of cooperatives. Concerning the impact of output market participation on welfare of smallholders, the Average Treatment on the Treated (ATT) as the measure of change revealed that participation in output markets has a positive impact on welfare of the smallholder farmers through increased incomes. Farmers who participated in output market were at least R838.44 better off than those who did not participate in markets although social grants and remittances made significantly higher contribution to household welfare. The study suggests that despite some improvements in income of market participants, the standards of living of the rural households are still far from what would be considered optimal. Crop farming evidently contributes less than desired, hence the persistence of the widespread poverty. It is urgent to focus interventions on improving agricultural productivity while widening strategies for improving rural livelihoods beyond agriculture to diversify the choices open to rural dwellers. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-06
- Authors: Lesala, Mahali Elizabeth https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9921-2190
- Date: 2021-06
- Subjects: Farms, Small , Economic development -- South Africa , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/20916 , vital:46745
- Description: The low market participation of smallholder farmers in markets has received enormous attention from scholars, both in the country and the Eastern Cape Province. However, it is not clear how low their market participation is including its implications on farmer’s welfare. The purpose of the study was to determine the extent to which smallholder farmers in the homelands of the Eastern Cape participate in output markets and assess how their participation in markets has affected wellbeing of their households. This information will have important practical implications for policy regarding appropriate pathways for poverty alleviation and livelihoods improvements in the rural areas of the Eastern Cape Province. Three irrigation schemes; Qamata, Zanyokwe and Tyefu irrigation schemes were selected for this study. A sample of 210 smallholder irrigators were interviewed by means of a close-ended questionnaire. The data were analysed by means of descriptive statistical tools, the multiple-level choice models and the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique. SPSS and STATA computer programmes were used to carry out all the estimations. The analysis established that, although agriculture is the primary activity for rural livelihoods, it is not the main contributor to family income. Rather, remittances and social grants were the dominant sources of household income in the Qamata, Zanyokwe and Tyefu areas. From the standpoint of market, maize and potatoes are the most popular crops, but potatoes dominate the market. This result confirms that maize is the staple crop and therefore mostly grown for home consumption while production of potatoes is market-oriented. The Market Participation Index (MPI) revealed that farmers sell at least 55 percent of their farm produce, implying that farmers have made some transition from subsistence to semi-commercial farming. However, farmers’ priority still remains food self-sufficiency and market participation only takes place after satisfying their home food needs. The results revealed that the significant factors influencing the farmers’ decisions and their extent of participation in output markets were the age, gender, marital status of the household head, primary occupation of household head, size of farm cultivated, government financial support, access to extension services and farmer’s membership of cooperatives. Concerning the impact of output market participation on welfare of smallholders, the Average Treatment on the Treated (ATT) as the measure of change revealed that participation in output markets has a positive impact on welfare of the smallholder farmers through increased incomes. Farmers who participated in output market were at least R838.44 better off than those who did not participate in markets although social grants and remittances made significantly higher contribution to household welfare. The study suggests that despite some improvements in income of market participants, the standards of living of the rural households are still far from what would be considered optimal. Crop farming evidently contributes less than desired, hence the persistence of the widespread poverty. It is urgent to focus interventions on improving agricultural productivity while widening strategies for improving rural livelihoods beyond agriculture to diversify the choices open to rural dwellers. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-06
The effects of household agricultural income on the adoption of electrical appliances and energy security among rural households in Mnquma Local Municipality
- Ntonjane, P https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9432-9031
- Authors: Ntonjane, P https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9432-9031
- Date: 2021-09
- Subjects: Energy security , Sustainable development -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/22655 , vital:52617
- Description: Energy security is critical to global economic development and agricultural activities. Electricity is one of the most beneficial types of energy for rural household livelihoods and smallholder producers in South Africa. This study aims to examine the effects of household agricultural income on the adoption of electrical appliances and energy security among agricultural households in Mnquma Local Municipality. The study employed primary data obtained from 224 households using simple random sampling technique across three electrification stages. Descriptive statistics, and binary logistic regression was used to determine the relationship between socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the household and the household agricultural income on the adoption of new electrical appliances and energy security across the three electrification stages. Descriptive statistics results indicated that non-electrified (67.1percent) and recently electrified (54.3percent) villages are dominated by female-headed households, while in electrified households there are more male head households (58.3percent). The results also show that among the households that have the highest total monthly income (greater than R15000), 34.5percent were electrified, 17.1 percent were recently electrified, and 4.3percent were non-electrified. The Binary logistic regression model's findings for the second objective revealed that household head factors such as age, monthly total household income, household size, and household agricultural income have significant effects on energy security. The study's findings revealed that household agricultural income has a significant impact at a 5 percent significant level on the adoption of electrical appliances. Binary logistic regression findings for the third objective revealed that on new electrical appliance adoption there was a significant effect of gender (at 5percent level), household size, energy security, and household agricultural income at a 1percent significance level. Binary logistic regression revealed that the coefficient of household size variable is positive and significant at a 1percent significant level on energy security and electrical appliance adoption. In this study, household agricultural income on the adoption of electrical appliances has been found to be the most critical factor influencing the energy security status of households among the selected rural households in Mnquma Local Municipality. As a result, policies must be put in place to facilitate access to electrical appliances through electrification programs, invention of affordable electric appliances, encourage participation in agricultural production and agricultural market access, that will provide households with social benefits. To improve energy security, electrical appliances should be simple to use and aid in the transition from biomass to electricity. , Thesis (MAgric) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-09
- Authors: Ntonjane, P https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9432-9031
- Date: 2021-09
- Subjects: Energy security , Sustainable development -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10353/22655 , vital:52617
- Description: Energy security is critical to global economic development and agricultural activities. Electricity is one of the most beneficial types of energy for rural household livelihoods and smallholder producers in South Africa. This study aims to examine the effects of household agricultural income on the adoption of electrical appliances and energy security among agricultural households in Mnquma Local Municipality. The study employed primary data obtained from 224 households using simple random sampling technique across three electrification stages. Descriptive statistics, and binary logistic regression was used to determine the relationship between socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the household and the household agricultural income on the adoption of new electrical appliances and energy security across the three electrification stages. Descriptive statistics results indicated that non-electrified (67.1percent) and recently electrified (54.3percent) villages are dominated by female-headed households, while in electrified households there are more male head households (58.3percent). The results also show that among the households that have the highest total monthly income (greater than R15000), 34.5percent were electrified, 17.1 percent were recently electrified, and 4.3percent were non-electrified. The Binary logistic regression model's findings for the second objective revealed that household head factors such as age, monthly total household income, household size, and household agricultural income have significant effects on energy security. The study's findings revealed that household agricultural income has a significant impact at a 5 percent significant level on the adoption of electrical appliances. Binary logistic regression findings for the third objective revealed that on new electrical appliance adoption there was a significant effect of gender (at 5percent level), household size, energy security, and household agricultural income at a 1percent significance level. Binary logistic regression revealed that the coefficient of household size variable is positive and significant at a 1percent significant level on energy security and electrical appliance adoption. In this study, household agricultural income on the adoption of electrical appliances has been found to be the most critical factor influencing the energy security status of households among the selected rural households in Mnquma Local Municipality. As a result, policies must be put in place to facilitate access to electrical appliances through electrification programs, invention of affordable electric appliances, encourage participation in agricultural production and agricultural market access, that will provide households with social benefits. To improve energy security, electrical appliances should be simple to use and aid in the transition from biomass to electricity. , Thesis (MAgric) -- Faculty of Science and Agriculture, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-09
A public-private partnership model for the improvemnet of local economic development in South African metropolitan government
- Binza, Mzikayise Shakespeare
- Authors: Binza, Mzikayise Shakespeare
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Public-private sector cooperation -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: vital:8159 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/923 , Economic development -- South Africa , Public-private sector cooperation -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: The post-apartheid developmental state of South Africa had a challenge of turning around an economy that was on deficit which it inherited in 1994, to a positive growth that will be sustainable and shared. The process followed in creating a sustainable economic development was first establishing a constitutional democratic government which was constituted in terms of the provisions of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996, as three equal spheres of government, viz: the national, provincial and local spheres of government. Initiatives on innovative economic development become a reconstruction programme not only of the national and provincial spheres of government, but also of the local sphere of government which is closest to the people it governs and deliver municipal goods and services to. For an example, section 152 (1) (c) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996, provides that the local sphere of government which is constituted by 283 wall-to-wall municipalities must “improve social and economic development” of the people. Out of the 283 municipalities, 6 are metropolitan municipalities, and are the: City of Cape Town, City of Johannesburg, City of Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Ethekwini, and Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality. This research project is limited to the City of Cape Town (CCT) and the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipalities (NMBM). In the second process, a number of legislations and policies providing for external mechanisms to be used to improve local economic development (LED) in an inclusive, shared and equitable manner were introduced. Policies that were introduced by the democratic government and serve as policy directive for economic development are: the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) of 1994; the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) of 1996; and the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa (ASGISA) of 2006. The relevant legislations to the local sphere of government which were introduced and provided for the appropriate mechanism for enabling sustainable growth of local economies by developmental local government in partnerships with other stakeholders such as private sector and civil society movements are: the Local Government: Municipal Systems Act, 2000 (Act 32 of 2000); Municipal Service Policy of 2000; Guidelines on Municipal Service Partnerships of 2006-2010; and the National Framework for Local Economic Development in South Africa (NFLED) of 2006-2010. The above xviii legislations provide the following external mechanisms to improve local economic development in municipal areas, viz: public-private partnerships; public-public partnerships, and public-community partnerships. This research project is about the first external mechanism which is the public-private partnerships (PPPs) to enable municipalities to improve local economies that provide for job creations and employment for the local inhabitants. According to the National Treasury Regulation 16 (2004:1), PPP means a “commercial transaction between an institution, for example a metropolitan government, and a private party in terms of which: 1. The private party either performs an institutional function on behalf of the institution [in this regard a metropolitan government] for a specified or indefinite period or acquires the use of a state property for its own commercial purposes for a specified or indefinite period. 2. The private party receives a benefit for performing the function or by utilising state property, either by way of compensation from a revenue fund, or by charges or fees collected by the private party from users or customers of a service provided for them; or a combination of such compensation and such fees”. The first goal of this research project is to develop the most appropriate public-private partnership model for South African metropolitan government with special reference to the City of Cape Town (CCT) and the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (NMBM) in enabling and guiding them to improve and sustain local economic development (LED) in their respective areas of jurisdiction. The application of public-private partnerships (PPPs) as a policy strategy to achieve local economic development (LED) in CCT and NMBM was investigated, in order to determine whether these activities can be improved. Followed is the development of a conceptual framework for optimal PPP implementation in order to improve local economic development in the CCT and NMBM and other metropolitan and municipal areas in South Africa. A more appropriate PPP model called the Participatory Development Systems Model (PDSM) has been constructed for this purpose from a number of sources and proven good practices both locally in South Africa and internationally. The PDSM model uses the strategic prioritisation and management by a municipality of the integrated development of physical, economic, human and social capital in its region in a more participatory way, as a point of departure for PPPs. The PDSM model for PPPs also emphasises consistent systematic assessment of these strategies against the strategic LED goals of the municipality concerned in order to ensure that lessons are learnt from these experiences and used to refine or revise future LED and PPP strategies accordingly. This thesis makes an original contribution to the existing body of knowledge about the promotion of LED through PPPs in metropolitan municipalities in South Africa and elsewhere, by conceptualising PPPs in a clear and coherent way as an integrated dimension of strategic management processes in municipalities that need to be implemented in a more participatory way in order to achieve the overall strategic goal of sustainable LED.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Binza, Mzikayise Shakespeare
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Public-private sector cooperation -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: vital:8159 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/923 , Economic development -- South Africa , Public-private sector cooperation -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: The post-apartheid developmental state of South Africa had a challenge of turning around an economy that was on deficit which it inherited in 1994, to a positive growth that will be sustainable and shared. The process followed in creating a sustainable economic development was first establishing a constitutional democratic government which was constituted in terms of the provisions of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996, as three equal spheres of government, viz: the national, provincial and local spheres of government. Initiatives on innovative economic development become a reconstruction programme not only of the national and provincial spheres of government, but also of the local sphere of government which is closest to the people it governs and deliver municipal goods and services to. For an example, section 152 (1) (c) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996, provides that the local sphere of government which is constituted by 283 wall-to-wall municipalities must “improve social and economic development” of the people. Out of the 283 municipalities, 6 are metropolitan municipalities, and are the: City of Cape Town, City of Johannesburg, City of Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Ethekwini, and Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality. This research project is limited to the City of Cape Town (CCT) and the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipalities (NMBM). In the second process, a number of legislations and policies providing for external mechanisms to be used to improve local economic development (LED) in an inclusive, shared and equitable manner were introduced. Policies that were introduced by the democratic government and serve as policy directive for economic development are: the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) of 1994; the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) of 1996; and the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa (ASGISA) of 2006. The relevant legislations to the local sphere of government which were introduced and provided for the appropriate mechanism for enabling sustainable growth of local economies by developmental local government in partnerships with other stakeholders such as private sector and civil society movements are: the Local Government: Municipal Systems Act, 2000 (Act 32 of 2000); Municipal Service Policy of 2000; Guidelines on Municipal Service Partnerships of 2006-2010; and the National Framework for Local Economic Development in South Africa (NFLED) of 2006-2010. The above xviii legislations provide the following external mechanisms to improve local economic development in municipal areas, viz: public-private partnerships; public-public partnerships, and public-community partnerships. This research project is about the first external mechanism which is the public-private partnerships (PPPs) to enable municipalities to improve local economies that provide for job creations and employment for the local inhabitants. According to the National Treasury Regulation 16 (2004:1), PPP means a “commercial transaction between an institution, for example a metropolitan government, and a private party in terms of which: 1. The private party either performs an institutional function on behalf of the institution [in this regard a metropolitan government] for a specified or indefinite period or acquires the use of a state property for its own commercial purposes for a specified or indefinite period. 2. The private party receives a benefit for performing the function or by utilising state property, either by way of compensation from a revenue fund, or by charges or fees collected by the private party from users or customers of a service provided for them; or a combination of such compensation and such fees”. The first goal of this research project is to develop the most appropriate public-private partnership model for South African metropolitan government with special reference to the City of Cape Town (CCT) and the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (NMBM) in enabling and guiding them to improve and sustain local economic development (LED) in their respective areas of jurisdiction. The application of public-private partnerships (PPPs) as a policy strategy to achieve local economic development (LED) in CCT and NMBM was investigated, in order to determine whether these activities can be improved. Followed is the development of a conceptual framework for optimal PPP implementation in order to improve local economic development in the CCT and NMBM and other metropolitan and municipal areas in South Africa. A more appropriate PPP model called the Participatory Development Systems Model (PDSM) has been constructed for this purpose from a number of sources and proven good practices both locally in South Africa and internationally. The PDSM model uses the strategic prioritisation and management by a municipality of the integrated development of physical, economic, human and social capital in its region in a more participatory way, as a point of departure for PPPs. The PDSM model for PPPs also emphasises consistent systematic assessment of these strategies against the strategic LED goals of the municipality concerned in order to ensure that lessons are learnt from these experiences and used to refine or revise future LED and PPP strategies accordingly. This thesis makes an original contribution to the existing body of knowledge about the promotion of LED through PPPs in metropolitan municipalities in South Africa and elsewhere, by conceptualising PPPs in a clear and coherent way as an integrated dimension of strategic management processes in municipalities that need to be implemented in a more participatory way in order to achieve the overall strategic goal of sustainable LED.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Learnership program's effectiveness at an FET college
- Lekhelebana, Letlatsa George
- Authors: Lekhelebana, Letlatsa George
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Vocational education , Skilled labor -- South Africa , Unemployment -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Universities and colleges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:8870 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020314
- Description: High levels of unemployment and skills shortages in key parts of the South African economy are well documented. The failure of the South African economy to absorb new entrants to the job market is also well documented. The paradox of an economy that was growing for over a decade during the late nineties and early 2000s creating a lot of vacancies and yet at the same time seeing ever growing levels of unemployment numbers also makes for interesting reading. Learnership programs are intended to address this situation by reducing the problem of skills shortages and leading in the human capital development that is aligned to industry needs. Thus is the purpose of this study to determine whether the beneficiaries of the learnership programs, the graduates, find benefit from having completed these learnership programs. It is to evaluate whether they find the program to have been effective in either equipping them sufficiently to improve prospects of finding permanent employment or successfully starting their own businesses. An extensive literature study of the history of the FET and its development, the concept of learnership and legislation and statutes applicable to the sector in South Africa was undertaken so that the skills development initiatives in the country are contextualised. The empirical part of the study involved a self-constructed questionnaire designed to illicit perspectives of the FET training and learnership within the FET graduate population that have completed their studies at an FET institution within Nelson Mandela Bay. The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find the training to be effective and confirm the literature findings that learnerships can improve the issue of skills shortage in industry. The study makes recommendations that encompass work-based strategies and training based strategies to further improve the program. The recommendations are targeted at the FET college, the work-place training providers and the MERSETA and are meant solely to assist the organisations in overcoming the identified challenges emanating from learnership implementation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Lekhelebana, Letlatsa George
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Vocational education , Skilled labor -- South Africa , Unemployment -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Universities and colleges -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:8870 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1020314
- Description: High levels of unemployment and skills shortages in key parts of the South African economy are well documented. The failure of the South African economy to absorb new entrants to the job market is also well documented. The paradox of an economy that was growing for over a decade during the late nineties and early 2000s creating a lot of vacancies and yet at the same time seeing ever growing levels of unemployment numbers also makes for interesting reading. Learnership programs are intended to address this situation by reducing the problem of skills shortages and leading in the human capital development that is aligned to industry needs. Thus is the purpose of this study to determine whether the beneficiaries of the learnership programs, the graduates, find benefit from having completed these learnership programs. It is to evaluate whether they find the program to have been effective in either equipping them sufficiently to improve prospects of finding permanent employment or successfully starting their own businesses. An extensive literature study of the history of the FET and its development, the concept of learnership and legislation and statutes applicable to the sector in South Africa was undertaken so that the skills development initiatives in the country are contextualised. The empirical part of the study involved a self-constructed questionnaire designed to illicit perspectives of the FET training and learnership within the FET graduate population that have completed their studies at an FET institution within Nelson Mandela Bay. The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find The data collected indicate that a substantial majority of the sample find the training to be effective and confirm the literature findings that learnerships can improve the issue of skills shortage in industry. The study makes recommendations that encompass work-based strategies and training based strategies to further improve the program. The recommendations are targeted at the FET college, the work-place training providers and the MERSETA and are meant solely to assist the organisations in overcoming the identified challenges emanating from learnership implementation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The impact of real exchange rates on economic growth: a case study of South Africa
- Authors: Sibanda, Kin
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11469 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007129 , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study examined the impact of real exchange rates on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period of 1994 to 2010. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model was used to determine the impact of real exchange on economic growth in South Africa. The explanatory variables in this study were real exchange rates, real interest rates, money supply, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation. Results from this study revealed that real exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation and real interest rates have a positive long run impact on economic growth, while money supply and trade openness have a negative long run impact on economic growth in South Africa. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency significantly hampers growth in the long run, whilst it significantly enhances economic growth in the short run. As such, the policy of depreciating the exchange rates to achieve higher growth rates is only effective in the short run and is not sustainable in the long run. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that misalignment (overvaluation and undervaluation) of the currency should be avoided at all costs. In addition, the results of the study showed that interest rates also have a significant impact on growth and since interest rates have a bearing on the exchange rate, it was recommended that the current monetary policy in South Africa should be maintained.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Sibanda, Kin
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , M Com
- Identifier: vital:11469 , http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007129 , Economic development -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Free trade -- South Africa , Saving and investment -- South Africa , Devaluation of currency -- South Africa , Currency question -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: This study examined the impact of real exchange rates on economic growth in South Africa. The study used quarterly time series data for the period of 1994 to 2010. The Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model was used to determine the impact of real exchange on economic growth in South Africa. The explanatory variables in this study were real exchange rates, real interest rates, money supply, trade openness and gross fixed capital formation. Results from this study revealed that real exchange rates, gross fixed capital formation and real interest rates have a positive long run impact on economic growth, while money supply and trade openness have a negative long run impact on economic growth in South Africa. From the regression results, it was noted that undervaluation of the currency significantly hampers growth in the long run, whilst it significantly enhances economic growth in the short run. As such, the policy of depreciating the exchange rates to achieve higher growth rates is only effective in the short run and is not sustainable in the long run. Based on the findings of this study, the researcher recommended that misalignment (overvaluation and undervaluation) of the currency should be avoided at all costs. In addition, the results of the study showed that interest rates also have a significant impact on growth and since interest rates have a bearing on the exchange rate, it was recommended that the current monetary policy in South Africa should be maintained.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Assessing BEE policy's viability in advancing establishment and survival of SMMes in South Africa
- Authors: Waithaka, Stephen Kiumi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Small business -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/4376 , vital:20591
- Description: Black Economic Empowerment is an ideology and policy that was effected so as to streamline the inequalities that were and have been left to stand after the apartheid era in South Africa. Despite the mixed reactions that would surface as a result of the underpinnings of the policy, the main focus of the policy was and still is to provide for equality and build better business among the economic minority who in this case are the “black” people of South Africa. This report focuses on the policy and the different guidelines that have been set in place to counter the inequalities in businesses and economy with focus being on SMMEs and looking at ways in which various sections, especially the score card, with regard to exemptions to small businesses, how this aids them in achieving BEE compliance. The research accomplished this by looking at the requirements of the score card, focusing mainly on the stipulations placed on SMMEs and by the use of literary reports gathered information that would show whether the exemptions give the said enterprises added competitive advantage. The research produced a couple of findings; that although theoretically the necessity of boosting economic growth and business of one of the most productive enterprise sectors in an economy and the fact that the score card has focused infinitely on the need for SMMEs not to be fully focused on a specific cluster of criterion in the score card but more on which criterion would work best for them and which ones are easy to maneuver around to ensure maximum growth and contribution, there is the loop hole that is experienced of how this criterion is met and passed with disregard to actualization of the need to adhere to the strictness of the rules of how compliance is attained. There was also the main issue of fronting which is the falsification of ownership of a company by providing misleading information about the directors and owners of the business. The main conclusions drawn from this research are that it is important not to lose the foresight that the policy is meant to enhance and grow the economic ability of a sector and build business through which the policy makes very heavy recommendations but there are shortfalls experienced with regard to how compliance is approached putting into consideration that SMMEs have been given exemptions in the number of pillars of the score card they can apply to their business. It is also important to note that the influence and bulldozing that is expected when it comes to dealing with policies of this nature is not to be sidelined. This research aims to look at the discrepancies that are set out within the structures that hold the policy together so as to attain maximum results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Waithaka, Stephen Kiumi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Small business -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/4376 , vital:20591
- Description: Black Economic Empowerment is an ideology and policy that was effected so as to streamline the inequalities that were and have been left to stand after the apartheid era in South Africa. Despite the mixed reactions that would surface as a result of the underpinnings of the policy, the main focus of the policy was and still is to provide for equality and build better business among the economic minority who in this case are the “black” people of South Africa. This report focuses on the policy and the different guidelines that have been set in place to counter the inequalities in businesses and economy with focus being on SMMEs and looking at ways in which various sections, especially the score card, with regard to exemptions to small businesses, how this aids them in achieving BEE compliance. The research accomplished this by looking at the requirements of the score card, focusing mainly on the stipulations placed on SMMEs and by the use of literary reports gathered information that would show whether the exemptions give the said enterprises added competitive advantage. The research produced a couple of findings; that although theoretically the necessity of boosting economic growth and business of one of the most productive enterprise sectors in an economy and the fact that the score card has focused infinitely on the need for SMMEs not to be fully focused on a specific cluster of criterion in the score card but more on which criterion would work best for them and which ones are easy to maneuver around to ensure maximum growth and contribution, there is the loop hole that is experienced of how this criterion is met and passed with disregard to actualization of the need to adhere to the strictness of the rules of how compliance is attained. There was also the main issue of fronting which is the falsification of ownership of a company by providing misleading information about the directors and owners of the business. The main conclusions drawn from this research are that it is important not to lose the foresight that the policy is meant to enhance and grow the economic ability of a sector and build business through which the policy makes very heavy recommendations but there are shortfalls experienced with regard to how compliance is approached putting into consideration that SMMEs have been given exemptions in the number of pillars of the score card they can apply to their business. It is also important to note that the influence and bulldozing that is expected when it comes to dealing with policies of this nature is not to be sidelined. This research aims to look at the discrepancies that are set out within the structures that hold the policy together so as to attain maximum results.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
An assessment of inland fisheries in South Africa using fisheries-dependent and fisheries-independent data sources
- Authors: McCafferty, James Ross
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Fisheries -- South Africa , Fishery management -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Food security -- South Africa , Poverty -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Fishing -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Catch effort -- South Africa , Fish stock assessment -- South Africa , Fish populations -- South Africa , Linear models (Statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5229 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005072 , Fisheries -- South Africa , Fishery management -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Food security -- South Africa , Poverty -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Fishing -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Catch effort -- South Africa , Fish stock assessment -- South Africa , Fish populations -- South Africa , Linear models (Statistics)
- Description: The role of inland fisheries as contributors to local and national economies in developing African countries is well documented. In South Africa, there is increasing interest in inland fisheries as vehicles for achieving national policy objectives including food security, livelihoods provision, poverty alleviation and economic development but there is surprisingly little literature on the history, current status, and potential of inland fishery resources. This lack of knowledge constrains the development of management strategies for ensuring the biological sustainability of these resources and the economic and social sustainability of the people that are dependent on them. In order to contribute to the knowledge base of inland fisheries in South Africa this thesis: (1) presents an exhaustive review of the available literature on inland fisheries in South Africa; (2) describes the organisation of recreational anglers (the primary users of the resource); (3) compiles recreational angling catch records and scientific gill net survey data, and assesses the applicability of these data for providing estimates of fish abundance (catch-per-unit effort [CPUE]); and finally, (4) determines the potential for models of fish abundance using morphometric, edaphic, and climatic factors. The literature review highlighted the data-poor nature of South African inland fisheries. In particular information on harvest rates was lacking. A lack of knowledge regarding different inland fishery sectors, governance systems, and potential user conflicts was also found. Recreational anglers were identified as the dominant user group and catch data from this sector were identified as potential sources of fish abundance and harvest information. Formal freshwater recreational angling in South Africa is a highly organised, multi-faceted activity which is based primarily on angling for non-native species, particularly common carp Cyprinus carpio and largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides. Bank anglers constituted the largest number of formal participants (5 309 anglers affiliated to formal angling organisations) followed by bass anglers (1 184 anglers affiliated to formal angling organisations). The highly structured nature of organised recreational angling and dominant utilisation of inland fisheries resources by this sector illustrated not only the vested interest of anglers in the management and development of inland fisheries but also the role that anglers may play in future decision-making and monitoring through the dissemination of catch data from organised angling events. Generalised linear models (GLMs) and generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to standardise CPUE estimates from bass- and bank angling catch records, which provided the most suitable data, and to determine environmental variables which most influenced capture probabilities and CPUE. Capture probabilities and CPUE for bass were influenced primarily by altitude and conductivity and multiple regression analysis revealed that predictive models incorporating altitude, conductivity, surface area and capacity explained significant (p<0.05) amounts of variability in CPUE (53%), probability of capture (49%) and probability of limit bag (74%). Bank angling CPUE was influenced by conductivity, surface area and rainfall although an insignificant (p>0.05) amount of variability (63%) was explained by a predictive model incorporating these variables as investigations were constrained by small sample sizes and aggregated catch information. Scientific survey data provided multi-species information and highlighted the high proportion of non-native fish species in Eastern Cape impoundments. Gillnet catches were influenced primarily by species composition and were less subject to fluctuations induced by environmental factors. Overall standardised gillnet CPUE was influenced by surface area, conductivity and age of impoundment. Although the model fit was not significant at the p<0.05 level, 23% of the variability in the data was explained by a predictive model incorporating these variables. The presence of species which could be effectively targeted by gillnets was hypothesised to represent the most important factor influencing catch rates. Investigation of factors influencing CPUE in impoundments dominated by Clarias gariepinus and native cyprinids indicated that warmer, younger impoundments and smaller, colder impoundments produced higher catches of C. gariepinus and native cyprinids respectively. A predictive model for C. gariepinus abundance explained a significant amount of variability (77%) in CPUE although the small sample size of impoundments suggests that predictions from this model may not be robust. CPUE of native cyprinids was influenced primarily by the presence of Labeo umbratus and constrained by small sample size of impoundments and the model did not adequately explain the variability in the data (r² = 0.31, p>0.05). These results indicate that angling catch- and scientific survey data can be useful in providing predictions of fish abundance that are biologically realistic. However, more data over a greater spatial scale would allow for more robust predictions of catch rates. This could be achieved through increased monitoring of existing resource users, the creation of a centralised database for catch records from angling competitions, and increased scientific surveys of South African impoundments conducted by a dedicated governmental function.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: McCafferty, James Ross
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Fisheries -- South Africa , Fishery management -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Food security -- South Africa , Poverty -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Fishing -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Catch effort -- South Africa , Fish stock assessment -- South Africa , Fish populations -- South Africa , Linear models (Statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:5229 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005072 , Fisheries -- South Africa , Fishery management -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Food security -- South Africa , Poverty -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Fishing -- South Africa , Fisheries -- Catch effort -- South Africa , Fish stock assessment -- South Africa , Fish populations -- South Africa , Linear models (Statistics)
- Description: The role of inland fisheries as contributors to local and national economies in developing African countries is well documented. In South Africa, there is increasing interest in inland fisheries as vehicles for achieving national policy objectives including food security, livelihoods provision, poverty alleviation and economic development but there is surprisingly little literature on the history, current status, and potential of inland fishery resources. This lack of knowledge constrains the development of management strategies for ensuring the biological sustainability of these resources and the economic and social sustainability of the people that are dependent on them. In order to contribute to the knowledge base of inland fisheries in South Africa this thesis: (1) presents an exhaustive review of the available literature on inland fisheries in South Africa; (2) describes the organisation of recreational anglers (the primary users of the resource); (3) compiles recreational angling catch records and scientific gill net survey data, and assesses the applicability of these data for providing estimates of fish abundance (catch-per-unit effort [CPUE]); and finally, (4) determines the potential for models of fish abundance using morphometric, edaphic, and climatic factors. The literature review highlighted the data-poor nature of South African inland fisheries. In particular information on harvest rates was lacking. A lack of knowledge regarding different inland fishery sectors, governance systems, and potential user conflicts was also found. Recreational anglers were identified as the dominant user group and catch data from this sector were identified as potential sources of fish abundance and harvest information. Formal freshwater recreational angling in South Africa is a highly organised, multi-faceted activity which is based primarily on angling for non-native species, particularly common carp Cyprinus carpio and largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides. Bank anglers constituted the largest number of formal participants (5 309 anglers affiliated to formal angling organisations) followed by bass anglers (1 184 anglers affiliated to formal angling organisations). The highly structured nature of organised recreational angling and dominant utilisation of inland fisheries resources by this sector illustrated not only the vested interest of anglers in the management and development of inland fisheries but also the role that anglers may play in future decision-making and monitoring through the dissemination of catch data from organised angling events. Generalised linear models (GLMs) and generalised additive models (GAMs) were used to standardise CPUE estimates from bass- and bank angling catch records, which provided the most suitable data, and to determine environmental variables which most influenced capture probabilities and CPUE. Capture probabilities and CPUE for bass were influenced primarily by altitude and conductivity and multiple regression analysis revealed that predictive models incorporating altitude, conductivity, surface area and capacity explained significant (p<0.05) amounts of variability in CPUE (53%), probability of capture (49%) and probability of limit bag (74%). Bank angling CPUE was influenced by conductivity, surface area and rainfall although an insignificant (p>0.05) amount of variability (63%) was explained by a predictive model incorporating these variables as investigations were constrained by small sample sizes and aggregated catch information. Scientific survey data provided multi-species information and highlighted the high proportion of non-native fish species in Eastern Cape impoundments. Gillnet catches were influenced primarily by species composition and were less subject to fluctuations induced by environmental factors. Overall standardised gillnet CPUE was influenced by surface area, conductivity and age of impoundment. Although the model fit was not significant at the p<0.05 level, 23% of the variability in the data was explained by a predictive model incorporating these variables. The presence of species which could be effectively targeted by gillnets was hypothesised to represent the most important factor influencing catch rates. Investigation of factors influencing CPUE in impoundments dominated by Clarias gariepinus and native cyprinids indicated that warmer, younger impoundments and smaller, colder impoundments produced higher catches of C. gariepinus and native cyprinids respectively. A predictive model for C. gariepinus abundance explained a significant amount of variability (77%) in CPUE although the small sample size of impoundments suggests that predictions from this model may not be robust. CPUE of native cyprinids was influenced primarily by the presence of Labeo umbratus and constrained by small sample size of impoundments and the model did not adequately explain the variability in the data (r² = 0.31, p>0.05). These results indicate that angling catch- and scientific survey data can be useful in providing predictions of fish abundance that are biologically realistic. However, more data over a greater spatial scale would allow for more robust predictions of catch rates. This could be achieved through increased monitoring of existing resource users, the creation of a centralised database for catch records from angling competitions, and increased scientific surveys of South African impoundments conducted by a dedicated governmental function.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The yield curve as a forecasting tool : does the yield spread predict recessions in South Africa?
- Authors: Khomo, Melvin Muzi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1040 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722 , Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Khomo, Melvin Muzi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1040 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722 , Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
An investigation of the internal challenges that hinder sustainability of the Furntech Nyanga incubates
- Authors: Sakuba, Siyasanga
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Business incubators -- South Africa -- Cape Town , Business incubators -- Training of -- South Africa -- Cape Town , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa – Cape Town , Unemployment -- South Africa , Rate of return -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Training needs -- South Africa -- Cape Town , Furntech (Nyanga)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/142830 , vital:38121
- Description: The South African unemployment rate is currently at 27.6 per cent (Statistics South Africa, 2019). In an effort to combat unemployment, the South African government has implemented various mechanisms to provide opportunities to the people and combat unemployment. One of these mechanisms is to invest in the establishment of entrepreneurship incubators while the Furntech incubator is one of the incubators established for this purpose. It is imperative that the government spending on these mechanisms is justified by a return on investment which, in this case, should be to reduce unemployment and increase the overall entrepreneurial activity. In view of Furntech, with specific reference to the Nyanga incubation centre, there is a high failure rate with very little output of sustainable enterprises from the two-year incubation period. This study seeks to investigate the internal challenges that hinder the sustainability of these entrepreneurs to either drop out before the end of the two-year incubation period or to furnish the two years without becoming sustainable entrepreneurs. This study seeks to investigate this matter by using a semi -structured interview schedule that was geared towards investigating the research problem from the view of the incubates. The findings of the study showed that Furntech can be commended in respect of the transfer of technical skills. Furntech, however, failed to support the entrepreneurs with the other business support services that are part of their services, namely the business advisory, financial support and business skills. These findings provide a guideline of where Furntech needs to improve its service offering to gain a higher output of sustainable entrepreneurs. It is important to note that even though Furntech has representation in three provinces with two incubators in the Western Cape (Cape Town and Nyanga), however, this study was limited to the Furntech Nyanga incubates.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Sakuba, Siyasanga
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Business incubators -- South Africa -- Cape Town , Business incubators -- Training of -- South Africa -- Cape Town , Entrepreneurship -- South Africa – Cape Town , Unemployment -- South Africa , Rate of return -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Training needs -- South Africa -- Cape Town , Furntech (Nyanga)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/142830 , vital:38121
- Description: The South African unemployment rate is currently at 27.6 per cent (Statistics South Africa, 2019). In an effort to combat unemployment, the South African government has implemented various mechanisms to provide opportunities to the people and combat unemployment. One of these mechanisms is to invest in the establishment of entrepreneurship incubators while the Furntech incubator is one of the incubators established for this purpose. It is imperative that the government spending on these mechanisms is justified by a return on investment which, in this case, should be to reduce unemployment and increase the overall entrepreneurial activity. In view of Furntech, with specific reference to the Nyanga incubation centre, there is a high failure rate with very little output of sustainable enterprises from the two-year incubation period. This study seeks to investigate the internal challenges that hinder the sustainability of these entrepreneurs to either drop out before the end of the two-year incubation period or to furnish the two years without becoming sustainable entrepreneurs. This study seeks to investigate this matter by using a semi -structured interview schedule that was geared towards investigating the research problem from the view of the incubates. The findings of the study showed that Furntech can be commended in respect of the transfer of technical skills. Furntech, however, failed to support the entrepreneurs with the other business support services that are part of their services, namely the business advisory, financial support and business skills. These findings provide a guideline of where Furntech needs to improve its service offering to gain a higher output of sustainable entrepreneurs. It is important to note that even though Furntech has representation in three provinces with two incubators in the Western Cape (Cape Town and Nyanga), however, this study was limited to the Furntech Nyanga incubates.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
National debt and sovereign credit ratings
- Authors: Orsmond, Daniel
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Credit ratings -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic history , Macroeconomics , Moody's Investors Service , Standard and Poor's Ratings Services , Fitch Ratings (Firm)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115160 , vital:34083
- Description: In recent years South Africa’s foreign and local denominated debt has been downgraded by the three major global credit agencies, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. The foreign debt has been downgraded to speculative grade or ‘junk’ status by all three agencies. Local debt has been downgraded to ‘junk’ by S& P and Fitch, but Moody’s currently maintains local debt at the lowest level of investment grade. Many economists believe that South Africa’s rapidly rising debt levels are the major contributor to the decisions to downgrade South Africa’s debt. Yet many countries with higher levels of debt continue to be rated investment grade. Clearly, factors other than the actual level of debt are important in determining the credit rating agencies’ rating decisions. The literature suggests several variables are important in determining a country’s sovereign credit rating. These variables include not just the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, but also a country’s real growth rate, inflation, gross domestic product per capita, external balance to gross domestic product, default history and the level of economic development. In examining the proposition that it is not a country’s debt level per se that matters, but rather the dynamics surrounding that debt, this research also includes three additional variables that are not usually mentioned in the literature. These, based on van der Merwe (1993), are the real GDP growth rate less the real interest rate, the ratio of the fiscal balance to GDP, and the ratio of government interest payments to government expenditure. The purpose of this addition is to examine whether rather than a country’s debt level (debt to GDP variable), it is the sustainability of a country’s ability to service debt, as indicated by the three additional ‘debt dynamic’ variables, that is most important when determining sovereign credit ratings. Panel data analysis for a sample of 12 countries over the period 1996Q1 to 2017Q4 indicates that of the broad macroeconomic variables mentioned in the literature, government debt to GDP, the real growth rate, inflation (cpi), and default history are all statistically significant, with the coefficients having the correct signs in all specification of the model, with the exception of the real growth rate in Models 2 and 3. With regards to the debt dynamic variables, the real growth rate less the real interest rate, as well as the interest payments to government expenditure variables are found to be significant determinants of sovereign credit ratings. Thus, the findings of the research suggest that the level of debt alone is an inadequate determinant of sovereign credit ratings. The dynamics of debt along with other macroeconomic variables are also important determinants of a country’s credit rating. Concerning policy recommendations, it is evident that debt sustainability is important for sovereign credit ratings. Evidence of the direct importance of economic growth in determining credit ratings is mixed, but growth is a key driver of debt dynamics variables and therefore of ratings. This suggests that policy should focus on stimulating growth to reduce the gap between real growth and real interest rates as well as increasing the denominator of the debt to GDP ratio and increase the size of the tax base, which would improve government’s ability to service the interest payments on its debt.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Orsmond, Daniel
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Debts, Public -- South Africa , Credit ratings -- South Africa , Gross domestic product -- Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic history , Macroeconomics , Moody's Investors Service , Standard and Poor's Ratings Services , Fitch Ratings (Firm)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/115160 , vital:34083
- Description: In recent years South Africa’s foreign and local denominated debt has been downgraded by the three major global credit agencies, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Fitch. The foreign debt has been downgraded to speculative grade or ‘junk’ status by all three agencies. Local debt has been downgraded to ‘junk’ by S& P and Fitch, but Moody’s currently maintains local debt at the lowest level of investment grade. Many economists believe that South Africa’s rapidly rising debt levels are the major contributor to the decisions to downgrade South Africa’s debt. Yet many countries with higher levels of debt continue to be rated investment grade. Clearly, factors other than the actual level of debt are important in determining the credit rating agencies’ rating decisions. The literature suggests several variables are important in determining a country’s sovereign credit rating. These variables include not just the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, but also a country’s real growth rate, inflation, gross domestic product per capita, external balance to gross domestic product, default history and the level of economic development. In examining the proposition that it is not a country’s debt level per se that matters, but rather the dynamics surrounding that debt, this research also includes three additional variables that are not usually mentioned in the literature. These, based on van der Merwe (1993), are the real GDP growth rate less the real interest rate, the ratio of the fiscal balance to GDP, and the ratio of government interest payments to government expenditure. The purpose of this addition is to examine whether rather than a country’s debt level (debt to GDP variable), it is the sustainability of a country’s ability to service debt, as indicated by the three additional ‘debt dynamic’ variables, that is most important when determining sovereign credit ratings. Panel data analysis for a sample of 12 countries over the period 1996Q1 to 2017Q4 indicates that of the broad macroeconomic variables mentioned in the literature, government debt to GDP, the real growth rate, inflation (cpi), and default history are all statistically significant, with the coefficients having the correct signs in all specification of the model, with the exception of the real growth rate in Models 2 and 3. With regards to the debt dynamic variables, the real growth rate less the real interest rate, as well as the interest payments to government expenditure variables are found to be significant determinants of sovereign credit ratings. Thus, the findings of the research suggest that the level of debt alone is an inadequate determinant of sovereign credit ratings. The dynamics of debt along with other macroeconomic variables are also important determinants of a country’s credit rating. Concerning policy recommendations, it is evident that debt sustainability is important for sovereign credit ratings. Evidence of the direct importance of economic growth in determining credit ratings is mixed, but growth is a key driver of debt dynamics variables and therefore of ratings. This suggests that policy should focus on stimulating growth to reduce the gap between real growth and real interest rates as well as increasing the denominator of the debt to GDP ratio and increase the size of the tax base, which would improve government’s ability to service the interest payments on its debt.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The relationship between electricity supply and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/9251 , vital:26483
- Description: Since democratisation of South Africa in 1994, the economy of South Africa underwent significant structural changes. Among these structural changes was electrification for the poor rural areas. During the apartheid era, about two-thirds of the nation lacked access to electricity and hence, provision for electricity to everyone was considered a crucial part of the economic development, post 1994. Since then economic growth and the demand for electricity in South Africa have been increasing at an unprecedented rate. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in the consumption of electricity. In responding to the high increase in the demand for electricity, the electricity utility planned to build new power stations and put back in use the ones which were mothballed. But unfortunately the plan for investment in these power stations was late and in 2008, the existing power stations could not manage to supply enough electricity. The demand for electricity was such that it nearly damaged the power generating circuit and the electricity supply utility had to resort to load shedding. The imbalance between electricity supply and demand led to industrial sectors losing on production and as a result led to a downturn in economic growth. It also led to an increase in electricity prices which had a negative effect on individual and private sectors’ purchasing power. It is against this background that this study is designed to investigate the long term relationship between economic growth and electricity supply. The additional variables such as electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment were included as intermittent variables to form a multivariate framework. This study also assesses the Granger causality between these variables to determine which variable supersedes the other. Two models were applied in this study: The Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger-causality. The ARDL bounds technique was used to detect the long term relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment using annual data from 1985 to 2014. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1988) for the research for the following reasons: Firstly, the ARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long term relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. Secondly, it is suitable to use for testing co-integration when a small sample data is used. Thirdly, it does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order e.g. integrated of order zero I(0), integrated of order one I(1) or fractionally integrated, for it to be applicable. Lastly, it does not rely on the properties of unit root datasets and this makes it possible for the Granger-causality to be applied in testing the long term relationships between the variables. The VECM Granger-causality is used to examine the Granger-causality between the chosen variables. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting when dealing with an unconstrained model. The unit root results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shit (KPSS). The ARDL bound approach outcomes revealed that economic growth, electricity supply, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital move together in the long term. There were three co-integrated equations under the export and trade models while under the import model there was one co-integrated equation. The results are such that electricity prices have a negative impact on economic growth. The results further evidenced that; electricity supply, trade openness, employment and capital have a positive impact on economic growth in the long term. The VECM Granger causality findings suggested a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply, trade, exports, electricity prices, employment and capital to economic growth in the long term. There was another unidirectional causality established flowing from economic growth, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital to electricity supply. A one-way causality flowing from economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, employment and capital to export was evidenced. Overall, the study’s results of bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity supply and economic growth have a number of implications for forecasters and policy makers. This feedback hypothesis implies that the high level of economic growth leads to a high level of electricity supply, which would stimulate economic growth. Hence, South Africa demonstrates a kind of electricity dependence in a manner that a sufficiently large supply of electricity seems to ensure high economic growth. Electricity supply is a vitally important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South African policy makers formulate investor friendly policies that will encourage, promote and attract capital inflows to stimulate electricity supply. The South African government needs to primarily deregulate the electricity supply industry which is owned by Eskom (a monopoly), and allow more investors into this industry. The government should promote a change to other forms of energy sources such as renewable energy sources which will play an important role in restoring the balance between electricity supply and consumption. Moreover, it is recommended that the electricity regulator should take steps to curb the severe electricity price increases and to ensure prices affordable to the poor communities. The policy makers need to implement some investor friendly policies that will encourage and promote capital formation. Furthermore, the government should invest towards more job creating sectors such as (Small and Medium Enterprises) SMEs. Finally, the government should take into consideration the importance of trade openness to attract international investments into the economy. It is hoped that the findings of this study would prove beneficial to policy makers in South Africa and elsewhere in the world where power outages are experienced, and assist them in combating the problem.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Khobai, Hlalefang
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Electric power failures -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/9251 , vital:26483
- Description: Since democratisation of South Africa in 1994, the economy of South Africa underwent significant structural changes. Among these structural changes was electrification for the poor rural areas. During the apartheid era, about two-thirds of the nation lacked access to electricity and hence, provision for electricity to everyone was considered a crucial part of the economic development, post 1994. Since then economic growth and the demand for electricity in South Africa have been increasing at an unprecedented rate. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in the consumption of electricity. In responding to the high increase in the demand for electricity, the electricity utility planned to build new power stations and put back in use the ones which were mothballed. But unfortunately the plan for investment in these power stations was late and in 2008, the existing power stations could not manage to supply enough electricity. The demand for electricity was such that it nearly damaged the power generating circuit and the electricity supply utility had to resort to load shedding. The imbalance between electricity supply and demand led to industrial sectors losing on production and as a result led to a downturn in economic growth. It also led to an increase in electricity prices which had a negative effect on individual and private sectors’ purchasing power. It is against this background that this study is designed to investigate the long term relationship between economic growth and electricity supply. The additional variables such as electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment were included as intermittent variables to form a multivariate framework. This study also assesses the Granger causality between these variables to determine which variable supersedes the other. Two models were applied in this study: The Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger-causality. The ARDL bounds technique was used to detect the long term relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment using annual data from 1985 to 2014. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1988) for the research for the following reasons: Firstly, the ARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long term relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. Secondly, it is suitable to use for testing co-integration when a small sample data is used. Thirdly, it does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order e.g. integrated of order zero I(0), integrated of order one I(1) or fractionally integrated, for it to be applicable. Lastly, it does not rely on the properties of unit root datasets and this makes it possible for the Granger-causality to be applied in testing the long term relationships between the variables. The VECM Granger-causality is used to examine the Granger-causality between the chosen variables. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting when dealing with an unconstrained model. The unit root results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shit (KPSS). The ARDL bound approach outcomes revealed that economic growth, electricity supply, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital move together in the long term. There were three co-integrated equations under the export and trade models while under the import model there was one co-integrated equation. The results are such that electricity prices have a negative impact on economic growth. The results further evidenced that; electricity supply, trade openness, employment and capital have a positive impact on economic growth in the long term. The VECM Granger causality findings suggested a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply, trade, exports, electricity prices, employment and capital to economic growth in the long term. There was another unidirectional causality established flowing from economic growth, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital to electricity supply. A one-way causality flowing from economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, employment and capital to export was evidenced. Overall, the study’s results of bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity supply and economic growth have a number of implications for forecasters and policy makers. This feedback hypothesis implies that the high level of economic growth leads to a high level of electricity supply, which would stimulate economic growth. Hence, South Africa demonstrates a kind of electricity dependence in a manner that a sufficiently large supply of electricity seems to ensure high economic growth. Electricity supply is a vitally important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South African policy makers formulate investor friendly policies that will encourage, promote and attract capital inflows to stimulate electricity supply. The South African government needs to primarily deregulate the electricity supply industry which is owned by Eskom (a monopoly), and allow more investors into this industry. The government should promote a change to other forms of energy sources such as renewable energy sources which will play an important role in restoring the balance between electricity supply and consumption. Moreover, it is recommended that the electricity regulator should take steps to curb the severe electricity price increases and to ensure prices affordable to the poor communities. The policy makers need to implement some investor friendly policies that will encourage and promote capital formation. Furthermore, the government should invest towards more job creating sectors such as (Small and Medium Enterprises) SMEs. Finally, the government should take into consideration the importance of trade openness to attract international investments into the economy. It is hoped that the findings of this study would prove beneficial to policy makers in South Africa and elsewhere in the world where power outages are experienced, and assist them in combating the problem.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
The impact of crime on the South African economic growth
- Authors: Mtati, Nokuzola Julia
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Crime -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Crime -- Sociological aspects , Economic development -- South Africa , Criminal behavior
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9131 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018644
- Description: Crime in South Africa has been escalating over the past few years. Crime affects all societies in South Africa. It occurs amongst the rich and the poor, in the suburbs as well as in the townships. Serious and violent crimes are reported in most of the national newspapers almost on daily basis. There is no single satisfactory answer as to the causes of crimes and its impact on the economy of South Africa. The aim of this research report is to assess the impact of crime in the South African economy. In order to formulate a conceptual and theoretical framework of the study, growth theories, namely neoclassical growth theory, Harrod-Domar growth model classical growth theory and endogenous growth theory were presented. Although all these growth theories relate to this study as crime cuts-across all sectors of the economy the endogenous growth theory was chosen as a theoretical framework on which to base this study. Endogenous growth theory deals with domestic absorption. Crime interferes with this absorption as it constitutes a cost to the economy. Firms lose profits whilst the opportunity cost of running prisons using a tax payers’ money continues to grow. This study is based on a quantitative research technique, using a vector error correction model (VECM) on a quarterly time series data over a period 2003 to 2011. The variables used to explain variations in economic growth over this period are crime, real interest rates, real exchange rates, unemployment and poverty. The findings of this study suggest that crime exerts a negative impact on economic growth in a long run in South Africa. However, this relationship is not statistically significant both in a short run and a long run. . However, no evidence of short run adjustments between crime and economic growth were found. There is a long run negative relationship between real interest rates and economic growth. This relationship is also statistically significant in a long run but not in a short run. However, the relationship between real interest rates and economic growth is positive in a short run. This can be explained by the fact that high interest rates attract foreign investments causing a rise in economic growth but in a long run high interest rates dampen domestic investments thereby aggravating the unemployment problem. Rising unemployment is likely to lead to increase levels of crime in South Africa. The results also show that unemployment has a negative relationship with economic growth both in the short run and a long run. However this relationship is not statistically significant in a short run but in a long run. Poverty has a negative relationship with economic growth in a short run but a positive relationship in a long run. However, in both instances the relationship between poverty and economic growth is not statistically significant. Real exchange rate has a positive relationship with economic growth in a long run but a negative relationship in a short run. This relationship is statistically significant in a long run but not in a short run. This means that the benefits of a weak currency in South Africa are realised in a long run. The implications of this study with regard to the variable of interest namely crime, is that crime constitutes a cost to the economy of South Africa. The econometric modelling used in this study suggests a negative relationship between crime and economic growth. This means that the problem of crime in South Africa goes beyond just simple counts on a number of offenses. Based on the findings of this study it is recommended that crime prevention is better than cure. Crime prevention should use a wide range of ideas and abilities found throughout the society. Community planning, neighbourhood action, juvenile advocacy, security planning, education and training are some of the ways in which crime actions can be mitigated in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mtati, Nokuzola Julia
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Crime -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Crime -- Sociological aspects , Economic development -- South Africa , Criminal behavior
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:9131 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1018644
- Description: Crime in South Africa has been escalating over the past few years. Crime affects all societies in South Africa. It occurs amongst the rich and the poor, in the suburbs as well as in the townships. Serious and violent crimes are reported in most of the national newspapers almost on daily basis. There is no single satisfactory answer as to the causes of crimes and its impact on the economy of South Africa. The aim of this research report is to assess the impact of crime in the South African economy. In order to formulate a conceptual and theoretical framework of the study, growth theories, namely neoclassical growth theory, Harrod-Domar growth model classical growth theory and endogenous growth theory were presented. Although all these growth theories relate to this study as crime cuts-across all sectors of the economy the endogenous growth theory was chosen as a theoretical framework on which to base this study. Endogenous growth theory deals with domestic absorption. Crime interferes with this absorption as it constitutes a cost to the economy. Firms lose profits whilst the opportunity cost of running prisons using a tax payers’ money continues to grow. This study is based on a quantitative research technique, using a vector error correction model (VECM) on a quarterly time series data over a period 2003 to 2011. The variables used to explain variations in economic growth over this period are crime, real interest rates, real exchange rates, unemployment and poverty. The findings of this study suggest that crime exerts a negative impact on economic growth in a long run in South Africa. However, this relationship is not statistically significant both in a short run and a long run. . However, no evidence of short run adjustments between crime and economic growth were found. There is a long run negative relationship between real interest rates and economic growth. This relationship is also statistically significant in a long run but not in a short run. However, the relationship between real interest rates and economic growth is positive in a short run. This can be explained by the fact that high interest rates attract foreign investments causing a rise in economic growth but in a long run high interest rates dampen domestic investments thereby aggravating the unemployment problem. Rising unemployment is likely to lead to increase levels of crime in South Africa. The results also show that unemployment has a negative relationship with economic growth both in the short run and a long run. However this relationship is not statistically significant in a short run but in a long run. Poverty has a negative relationship with economic growth in a short run but a positive relationship in a long run. However, in both instances the relationship between poverty and economic growth is not statistically significant. Real exchange rate has a positive relationship with economic growth in a long run but a negative relationship in a short run. This relationship is statistically significant in a long run but not in a short run. This means that the benefits of a weak currency in South Africa are realised in a long run. The implications of this study with regard to the variable of interest namely crime, is that crime constitutes a cost to the economy of South Africa. The econometric modelling used in this study suggests a negative relationship between crime and economic growth. This means that the problem of crime in South Africa goes beyond just simple counts on a number of offenses. Based on the findings of this study it is recommended that crime prevention is better than cure. Crime prevention should use a wide range of ideas and abilities found throughout the society. Community planning, neighbourhood action, juvenile advocacy, security planning, education and training are some of the ways in which crime actions can be mitigated in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The development of a strategic management model for industrial development zones to attract Greenfield Foreign Direct Investments
- Authors: Rich, Guy Martin
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Investments, foreign -- South Africa , Industrialization -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:10937 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/220 , Investments, foreign -- South Africa , Industrialization -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Description: In order to become globally competitive, South Africa has embarked on an industrial development zone (IDZ) programme to boost investment, increase the socio-economic climate, attract world-class manufacturers and generate local and foreign direct investment (FDI) while creating employment, encouraging skills and technology transfer, and increasing foreign exchange earnings. Twelve strategic areas within South Africa have been identified and are in the process of, or have been, declared IDZs. East London and Coega are the first two IDZs to come online in South Africa and have generated much publicity in the past number of years. One of the aims of the IDZs, as world-class production areas, is to generate FDI. Drivers of international FDI include globalisation, political, economic and legal environments and competitive advantage. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2002: 25), FDI accounts for 16 percent of worldwide gross fixed capital formation – and a growing proportion of this is going to developing nations. According to the World Economic Processing Zones Association (WEPZA), IDZs have been the star performer in attracting investment and technology to developing countries during the past 50 years (2002: www.wepza.org). If the Eastern Cape IDZ programme is to be a success, the development corporations that have been established as the management arms of the IDZs will need to facilitate strategic economic advantage, look towards strategic investments that are sustainable, take advantage of and grow existing industrial capacity and create economic and social benefits for the region. There are a number of dynamics and reasons behind global FDI decisions. In order to be successful at attracting FDI the development corporations need to understand these dynamics and reasons in order to achieve a strategic fit between potential investor and the IDZ. This can be done by adopting a strategic management model for greenfield FDI from international investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Rich, Guy Martin
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Investments, foreign -- South Africa , Industrialization -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MBA
- Identifier: vital:10937 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/220 , Investments, foreign -- South Africa , Industrialization -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa
- Description: In order to become globally competitive, South Africa has embarked on an industrial development zone (IDZ) programme to boost investment, increase the socio-economic climate, attract world-class manufacturers and generate local and foreign direct investment (FDI) while creating employment, encouraging skills and technology transfer, and increasing foreign exchange earnings. Twelve strategic areas within South Africa have been identified and are in the process of, or have been, declared IDZs. East London and Coega are the first two IDZs to come online in South Africa and have generated much publicity in the past number of years. One of the aims of the IDZs, as world-class production areas, is to generate FDI. Drivers of international FDI include globalisation, political, economic and legal environments and competitive advantage. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2002: 25), FDI accounts for 16 percent of worldwide gross fixed capital formation – and a growing proportion of this is going to developing nations. According to the World Economic Processing Zones Association (WEPZA), IDZs have been the star performer in attracting investment and technology to developing countries during the past 50 years (2002: www.wepza.org). If the Eastern Cape IDZ programme is to be a success, the development corporations that have been established as the management arms of the IDZs will need to facilitate strategic economic advantage, look towards strategic investments that are sustainable, take advantage of and grow existing industrial capacity and create economic and social benefits for the region. There are a number of dynamics and reasons behind global FDI decisions. In order to be successful at attracting FDI the development corporations need to understand these dynamics and reasons in order to achieve a strategic fit between potential investor and the IDZ. This can be done by adopting a strategic management model for greenfield FDI from international investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
The future of banking in South Africa towards 2055: disruptive innovation scenarios
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
- Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Koekemoer, Jonathan
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/40577 , vital:36184
- Description: The research effort developed four possible scenarios for the future of banking in South Africa towards 2055. The scenarios sought to stimulate thought on the possible, probable, plausible and preferred effects of disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African banking sector. The scenarios were developed in strict accordance with the 5 stages, and 9 steps, of the scenario-based planning process of futures studies. A conceptual futures studies model for banking in South Africa was developed to guide and clarify the way in which the research on South African banking can be integrated into the body of existing futures studies theory. The research study began with a comprehensive environmental scan, where various megatrends and driving forces are identified. A PESTEL analysis provided a deeper understanding of the driving forces. A Real-Time Delphi study was conducted in order to validate and prioritise the megatrends and driving forces that emerged. As a result, the research study was able to present four plausible scenarios that provide a better understanding of the future of banking in South Africa over the decades to come. The research presents banking as a complex, multi-faceted sector that is heavily influenced by advances in technology. The Real-Time Delphi research allowed the aggregation of expert knowledge. This is used as a guide to assist decision-makers and industry leaders in the adoption of appropriate business models and strategies towards a preferred future state. The research defined the Integrated Vision as the preferred future state for the South African banking sector towards 2055. The study closes a research gap where current strategies deviate from proposed strategies that drive the achievement of the Integrated Vision by 2055. Finally, contextually aligned practical recommendations are provided to assist decision-makers, industry leaders and change agents to work towards a preferable future state. The proposed recommendations are placed into broad categories of innovation, financial inclusion and collaborative regulatory relationships. The research makes a meaningful contribution to the South African banking sector by introducing a forward-looking, systems-thinking approach to disruptive innovation and regulation in the South African context.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019