An analysis of the influence of domestic macroeconomic variables on the performance of the South African stock market sectoral indices
- Authors: Hancocks, Ryan Lee
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:954
- Description: An econometric study was undertaken to determine the extent to which selected macroeconomic variables influenced stock market prices on the All-Share, Financial, Mining and Retail Indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa from 1996:7 to 2008:12. The Johansen cointegration method was used to determine whether cointegrating relationships existed between the macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices. A Vector Error Correction model was estimated and found significant results that money supply, inflation, long and short- run interest rates, and the exchange rate all had an influence on stock market prices. Further, the VECM results for each sector indicated that certain macroeconomic variables had differing influences on each sector of the stock market. Impulse Response tests indicated that the selected macroeconomic variables caused shock to the sectoral indices in the short-run but that the effect was lagged. The Variance Decomposition tests conducted supported earlier evidence that the macroeconomic variables had a strong level of sectoral index determinacy in the long run. The results found that the All-Share and Financial Indices were negatively influenced by inflation and short term interest rates in the long run, while the Financial Index also had a negative relationship with long-run interest rates. Money supply was found to have a positive effect on all the indices. A weakening of the exchange rate was found to have a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices, while it negatively affected the All-Share and Financial Indices. The long-run interest rate had a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices. Overall the study finds that macroeconomic variables are important determinants of stock market prices in South Africa and that it is important to examine each sector of the stock market separately to capture what are different effects. The limitations of the study are that a different measure for exchange rates from the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate used here may yield more decisive results and provide insight into the link between exchange rate behaviour and performance of especially the retail sector.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Hancocks, Ryan Lee
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:954
- Description: An econometric study was undertaken to determine the extent to which selected macroeconomic variables influenced stock market prices on the All-Share, Financial, Mining and Retail Indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa from 1996:7 to 2008:12. The Johansen cointegration method was used to determine whether cointegrating relationships existed between the macroeconomic variables and the stock market indices. A Vector Error Correction model was estimated and found significant results that money supply, inflation, long and short- run interest rates, and the exchange rate all had an influence on stock market prices. Further, the VECM results for each sector indicated that certain macroeconomic variables had differing influences on each sector of the stock market. Impulse Response tests indicated that the selected macroeconomic variables caused shock to the sectoral indices in the short-run but that the effect was lagged. The Variance Decomposition tests conducted supported earlier evidence that the macroeconomic variables had a strong level of sectoral index determinacy in the long run. The results found that the All-Share and Financial Indices were negatively influenced by inflation and short term interest rates in the long run, while the Financial Index also had a negative relationship with long-run interest rates. Money supply was found to have a positive effect on all the indices. A weakening of the exchange rate was found to have a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices, while it negatively affected the All-Share and Financial Indices. The long-run interest rate had a positive influence on both the Retail and Mining Indices. Overall the study finds that macroeconomic variables are important determinants of stock market prices in South Africa and that it is important to examine each sector of the stock market separately to capture what are different effects. The limitations of the study are that a different measure for exchange rates from the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate used here may yield more decisive results and provide insight into the link between exchange rate behaviour and performance of especially the retail sector.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
An analysis of the long run comovements between financial system development and mining production in South Africa
- Authors: Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:955 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689 , Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Description: This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:955 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689 , Economic development -- South Africa , Econometric models , Mineral industries -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Principal components analysis , Cointegration , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates
- Description: This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
An analysis of the money market linkages between South Africa and selected major world economies
- Authors: Barnor, Joel A
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , International economic relations , Interest rates -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:956 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002690 , South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , International economic relations , Interest rates -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa
- Description: Globalisation and financial liberalisation has increased the linkages across countries in recent times. The existence of money market links has important implications for both domestic monetary policy and for investment decisions. This study examines the linkages between South Africa’s money market and selected major international money markets. The objectives of the study are firstly to examine the links between the repo rate of South Africa and the central bank rates of the EU, Japan, UK and US. Secondly, is to compare the influence of domestic and foreign monetary policy decisions on South Africa’s money market. The third objective is to examine the long run relationship between the South African money market and the money markets of its major trading partners. Three estimation techniques are used to examine the different links. Principal components analysis, four tests of cointegration, and stationarity tests of the spreads/risk premium between South Africa’s interest rates and the interest rates of the other countries. All three techniques show that there is no long-run link between South Africa’s central bank rates and the central bank rates of the other countries. This shows that the repo rate does not depend on movements in other central bank rates. Domestic money market interest rates respond strongly to changes in the repo rate whilst showing no dependence on central bank rates of the other countries. This confirms the autonomy of the South African Reserve Bank in carrying out policy objectives. When the risk premium is accounted for under the third technique, evidence of integration is found. This indicates that the risk premium plays a crucial part in the level of integration between South Africa and the countries included in the study.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Barnor, Joel A
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , International economic relations , Interest rates -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:956 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002690 , South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , International economic relations , Interest rates -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa
- Description: Globalisation and financial liberalisation has increased the linkages across countries in recent times. The existence of money market links has important implications for both domestic monetary policy and for investment decisions. This study examines the linkages between South Africa’s money market and selected major international money markets. The objectives of the study are firstly to examine the links between the repo rate of South Africa and the central bank rates of the EU, Japan, UK and US. Secondly, is to compare the influence of domestic and foreign monetary policy decisions on South Africa’s money market. The third objective is to examine the long run relationship between the South African money market and the money markets of its major trading partners. Three estimation techniques are used to examine the different links. Principal components analysis, four tests of cointegration, and stationarity tests of the spreads/risk premium between South Africa’s interest rates and the interest rates of the other countries. All three techniques show that there is no long-run link between South Africa’s central bank rates and the central bank rates of the other countries. This shows that the repo rate does not depend on movements in other central bank rates. Domestic money market interest rates respond strongly to changes in the repo rate whilst showing no dependence on central bank rates of the other countries. This confirms the autonomy of the South African Reserve Bank in carrying out policy objectives. When the risk premium is accounted for under the third technique, evidence of integration is found. This indicates that the risk premium plays a crucial part in the level of integration between South Africa and the countries included in the study.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
An analysis of the possible success of a tax on sugarsweetened beverages in South Africa
- Authors: Mabaso, Bandla Sazi
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Nutrition -- Government policy -- South Africa , Value-added tax -- South Africa , Obesity -- South Africa -- Prevention , Excise tax -- South Africa , Taxations of articles of consumption -- South Africa , Tobacco -- Taxation -- South Africa , Alcohol -- Taxation -- South Africa , Carbonated beverages -- Taxation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/68333 , vital:29240
- Description: The increase in obesity is a global crisis that is prevalent in both the developed and developing economies, including South Africa. It endangers the health and threatens the life of many people. Sugar-sweetened beverages have become the key target in the fight against obesity, in preference to other foodstuffs that contain added sugar, because of the poor nutritional value they contain and harm they cause if consumed excessively. The Minister of Finance announced in the 2016 Budget Speech, that a proposed tax on sugar-sweetened beverages would be introduced in South Africa and would be implemented in April 2017, but the anticipated date is now 1 April 2018. The thesis examined the possible success of this proposed tax in South Africa, using as a benchmark the process followed prior to implementing the tax and the experience of selected foreign countries that have implemented the tax, one country subsequently abolishing it, and another country considering implementing it. Additionally, the research analysed the success of the existing excise taxes levied on tobacco and alcohol in South Africa, in attempting to predict the possible success of the proposed tax. The success of the proposed tax is, however, threatened by the emergence of illegal markets that offer the targeted products inexpensively, particularly if similar restrictions and laws do not exist in bordering countries. The research was carried out by means of the analysis of journal articles, information from the selected countries’ revenue authorities’ websites, National Treasury publications, commentaries by experts and publications by professional organisations and firms. Overall, the proposed tax has been successful in curbing obesity and high sugar intake in other countries. Similarly, the excise taxes on tobacco and alcohol have been successful in reducing the consumption of targeted products in South Africa. These successes have been realized through a collaborated effort and employing a multi-faceted approach, including advertising restrictions. Nevertheless, the proposed tax is popularly criticised for its regressive nature and the potential job losses that are associated with it.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mabaso, Bandla Sazi
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Nutrition -- Government policy -- South Africa , Value-added tax -- South Africa , Obesity -- South Africa -- Prevention , Excise tax -- South Africa , Taxations of articles of consumption -- South Africa , Tobacco -- Taxation -- South Africa , Alcohol -- Taxation -- South Africa , Carbonated beverages -- Taxation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/68333 , vital:29240
- Description: The increase in obesity is a global crisis that is prevalent in both the developed and developing economies, including South Africa. It endangers the health and threatens the life of many people. Sugar-sweetened beverages have become the key target in the fight against obesity, in preference to other foodstuffs that contain added sugar, because of the poor nutritional value they contain and harm they cause if consumed excessively. The Minister of Finance announced in the 2016 Budget Speech, that a proposed tax on sugar-sweetened beverages would be introduced in South Africa and would be implemented in April 2017, but the anticipated date is now 1 April 2018. The thesis examined the possible success of this proposed tax in South Africa, using as a benchmark the process followed prior to implementing the tax and the experience of selected foreign countries that have implemented the tax, one country subsequently abolishing it, and another country considering implementing it. Additionally, the research analysed the success of the existing excise taxes levied on tobacco and alcohol in South Africa, in attempting to predict the possible success of the proposed tax. The success of the proposed tax is, however, threatened by the emergence of illegal markets that offer the targeted products inexpensively, particularly if similar restrictions and laws do not exist in bordering countries. The research was carried out by means of the analysis of journal articles, information from the selected countries’ revenue authorities’ websites, National Treasury publications, commentaries by experts and publications by professional organisations and firms. Overall, the proposed tax has been successful in curbing obesity and high sugar intake in other countries. Similarly, the excise taxes on tobacco and alcohol have been successful in reducing the consumption of targeted products in South Africa. These successes have been realized through a collaborated effort and employing a multi-faceted approach, including advertising restrictions. Nevertheless, the proposed tax is popularly criticised for its regressive nature and the potential job losses that are associated with it.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
An analysis of the relationship between the sources of conflict and the stages in the conflict process within the marketing channel comprising retail pharmacy managers and medical doctors
- Authors: Futter, William Thomas
- Date: 1988
- Subjects: Medicine -- Formulae, receipts, prescriptions -- Marketing , Marketing channels , Marketing research , Drugs -- Marketing
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1161 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001628
- Description: Marketing channels have traditionally been examined as commercial conduits the sale objective of which was to facilitate the flow of goods from producer to consumer. This approach emphasized functional and structural aspects of the channel and was primarily concerned with the efficiency of the distribution system. During the last two decades, marketing channels have increasingly been viewed as social systems affected by the behavioural dimensions of power, conflict, roles and communication. The rapid growth of vertical marketing systems with greater authority and interdependence between channel members, have stimulated interest in this field. Nevertheless, research has been limited and characterized by methodological problems and conceptual differences about the definitions of behavioural variables and their relationships. Some attempts have been made to develop an integrated framework within which to conduct research into channel relationships, but the validity and relaibility of these models has not been tested. This research project examined the relationship between the sources of conflict and stages in the conflict process. The sources of conflict were subdivided into attitudinal and structural categories, the latter being concerned with goal differences, the desire for autonomy in the face of interdependence and competition for scarce resources. The conflict process model adopted by the author assumes the existence of stages of latency, feeling, perception, manifestation and aftermath in each conflict episode. The first four were treated as separate behavioural states for which different levels of conflict intensity were measured. In order to provide greater explanatory power to the results of the analysis, the perceptions of two respondent groups were identified, namely the leader group, consisting of channel members responsible for the overall strategic interests of the channel, and the affected group, consisting of channel members who had been adversly affected by the activities of their partners in the channel dyad. In addition, respondents were asked to identify separately, their perceptions of the macro and micro levels of conflict in the four conflict states. The marketing channel for prescription medicines was selected for the study. The focal dyad consisted of retail pharmacy managers and doctors with single respondent perceptual measures being obtained from the retail pharmacy managers. A mail survey of all the retail pharmacy managers in South Africa, South West Africa/Namibia, and the independent homelands conducted in July 1987 resulted in a 40% response rate (1031 returns). Tests indicated statistically significant differences between the perceptual measures representing the sources and stages of conflict, the macro and micro levels of the stages of conflict and between the leader and the non-leader groups and the affected and non-affected groups. A sequential hierarchy in the level of conflict measured in the behavioural states was indicated, with decreasing levels of conflict being identified in states of latency, perception, feeling and manifestations, respectively. An analysis of the results revealed that attitudinal sources of conflict were more important that structural sources in measures of perceptions, feelings and manifestations of conflict behaviour. In the latent conflict state, structural sources assumed greater importance than attitudinal sources. In most of the measures, the sources of conflict were more correlated with perceptions of conflict at the macro level than the micro level. The exception was manifest conflict for which micro conflict levels were more important. The major sources of conflict were differences in perceptions, differences in goals and the lack of autonomy. The leader group indicated a particular concern for attitudinal factors, particularly communication difficulties. The affected group, whilst identifying attitudinal factors as being the most important, was especially concerned with their lack of autonomy from the doctor, rather than the competition for scarce resources which could have been expected. An overall assessment of the level of conflict between retail pharmacy managers and doctors indicated that the channel dyad was relatively free from conflict. Relationships were characterized by a degree of satisfaction, some degree of harmony and little evidence of conflict behaviour.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1988
- Authors: Futter, William Thomas
- Date: 1988
- Subjects: Medicine -- Formulae, receipts, prescriptions -- Marketing , Marketing channels , Marketing research , Drugs -- Marketing
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1161 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001628
- Description: Marketing channels have traditionally been examined as commercial conduits the sale objective of which was to facilitate the flow of goods from producer to consumer. This approach emphasized functional and structural aspects of the channel and was primarily concerned with the efficiency of the distribution system. During the last two decades, marketing channels have increasingly been viewed as social systems affected by the behavioural dimensions of power, conflict, roles and communication. The rapid growth of vertical marketing systems with greater authority and interdependence between channel members, have stimulated interest in this field. Nevertheless, research has been limited and characterized by methodological problems and conceptual differences about the definitions of behavioural variables and their relationships. Some attempts have been made to develop an integrated framework within which to conduct research into channel relationships, but the validity and relaibility of these models has not been tested. This research project examined the relationship between the sources of conflict and stages in the conflict process. The sources of conflict were subdivided into attitudinal and structural categories, the latter being concerned with goal differences, the desire for autonomy in the face of interdependence and competition for scarce resources. The conflict process model adopted by the author assumes the existence of stages of latency, feeling, perception, manifestation and aftermath in each conflict episode. The first four were treated as separate behavioural states for which different levels of conflict intensity were measured. In order to provide greater explanatory power to the results of the analysis, the perceptions of two respondent groups were identified, namely the leader group, consisting of channel members responsible for the overall strategic interests of the channel, and the affected group, consisting of channel members who had been adversly affected by the activities of their partners in the channel dyad. In addition, respondents were asked to identify separately, their perceptions of the macro and micro levels of conflict in the four conflict states. The marketing channel for prescription medicines was selected for the study. The focal dyad consisted of retail pharmacy managers and doctors with single respondent perceptual measures being obtained from the retail pharmacy managers. A mail survey of all the retail pharmacy managers in South Africa, South West Africa/Namibia, and the independent homelands conducted in July 1987 resulted in a 40% response rate (1031 returns). Tests indicated statistically significant differences between the perceptual measures representing the sources and stages of conflict, the macro and micro levels of the stages of conflict and between the leader and the non-leader groups and the affected and non-affected groups. A sequential hierarchy in the level of conflict measured in the behavioural states was indicated, with decreasing levels of conflict being identified in states of latency, perception, feeling and manifestations, respectively. An analysis of the results revealed that attitudinal sources of conflict were more important that structural sources in measures of perceptions, feelings and manifestations of conflict behaviour. In the latent conflict state, structural sources assumed greater importance than attitudinal sources. In most of the measures, the sources of conflict were more correlated with perceptions of conflict at the macro level than the micro level. The exception was manifest conflict for which micro conflict levels were more important. The major sources of conflict were differences in perceptions, differences in goals and the lack of autonomy. The leader group indicated a particular concern for attitudinal factors, particularly communication difficulties. The affected group, whilst identifying attitudinal factors as being the most important, was especially concerned with their lack of autonomy from the doctor, rather than the competition for scarce resources which could have been expected. An overall assessment of the level of conflict between retail pharmacy managers and doctors indicated that the channel dyad was relatively free from conflict. Relationships were characterized by a degree of satisfaction, some degree of harmony and little evidence of conflict behaviour.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1988
An analysis of the risk adjusted returns of active versus passive South African general equity unit trusts during varying economic periods: an individual investor's perspective
- Authors: Ferreira, James Stuart
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Mutual funds , Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , Risk assessment , Financial crises -- South Africa , Portfolio management , Financial planners
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1207 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1019753
- Description: This thesis used the events of the 2007 financial crisis as a means of being able to add to the research already done on South African unit trusts. The objective was to study the risk-adjusted performance of South African general equity unit trusts against the market during the period between 2005 and 2014. This period took into account the bull market preceding the financial crisis, the market crash of 2007 and the subsequent market recovery that followed. Data was obtained online through the I-Net BFA data base and included 161 general equity unit trusts that contained a full data set. In addition to the general equity unit trusts, the Satrix40 was studied to compare a passive unit trust against those that are actively managed. The 10 year Government bond was also used as a risk-free rate to add to the comparisons of performance results. The Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen measures were applied to the data with the results adding more support to the opinions that markets are fairly efficient and active investment strategies are being challenged by consistently well performing passive investments. Throughout the duration of the study, taking into account the varying economic cycles, the Satrix40 passive investment showed the best average overall return on simple return calculations as well as during the risk-adjusted measurements. In support of active investment management, unit trusts showed their best relative performance figures during the period of the financial crisis. This suggested that active financial managers were able to make the active calls necessary to weather the storm of the financial crisis. While the study did have its limitations, the results it produced are intended to offer investors further knowledge in enabling them to make more educated investment decisions in the future.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Ferreira, James Stuart
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Mutual funds , Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , Risk assessment , Financial crises -- South Africa , Portfolio management , Financial planners
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1207 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1019753
- Description: This thesis used the events of the 2007 financial crisis as a means of being able to add to the research already done on South African unit trusts. The objective was to study the risk-adjusted performance of South African general equity unit trusts against the market during the period between 2005 and 2014. This period took into account the bull market preceding the financial crisis, the market crash of 2007 and the subsequent market recovery that followed. Data was obtained online through the I-Net BFA data base and included 161 general equity unit trusts that contained a full data set. In addition to the general equity unit trusts, the Satrix40 was studied to compare a passive unit trust against those that are actively managed. The 10 year Government bond was also used as a risk-free rate to add to the comparisons of performance results. The Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen measures were applied to the data with the results adding more support to the opinions that markets are fairly efficient and active investment strategies are being challenged by consistently well performing passive investments. Throughout the duration of the study, taking into account the varying economic cycles, the Satrix40 passive investment showed the best average overall return on simple return calculations as well as during the risk-adjusted measurements. In support of active investment management, unit trusts showed their best relative performance figures during the period of the financial crisis. This suggested that active financial managers were able to make the active calls necessary to weather the storm of the financial crisis. While the study did have its limitations, the results it produced are intended to offer investors further knowledge in enabling them to make more educated investment decisions in the future.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
An analysis of the tax consequences of the double tax agreement between South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo
- Authors: Mkabile, Nwabisa
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Double taxation -- South Africa , Double taxation -- Congo (Democratic Republic) , Income tax -- South Africa -- Foreign income , Income tax -- Congo (Democratic Republic) -- Foreign income
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:916 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017539
- Description: As a result of the different tax systems adopted by countries, foreign-sourced income earned by taxpayers may be subject to double taxation. This may therefore impede cross-border trade and investment. Double taxation relief is provided unilaterally, in terms of a country’s domestic laws or bilaterally in terms of Double Taxation Agreements. South African residents earning income from the Democratic Republic of Congo may be subject to tax in both countries. To eliminate such double taxation the South African Income Tax Act, No 58 of 1962, provides for unilateral relief from double taxation in the form of exemptions, rebates and deductions. The double tax agreement between South Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo came into effect recently and double taxation relief for South African residents is now also available in terms of tax treaty law. The objective of the research was to determine whether the combination of the unilateral measures and the double tax agreement provide relief in respect of all types of income earned by South African residents in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It was concluded that the double tax agreement, together with the unilateral relief provided for in the Income Tax Act will grant relief for all types of income earned by South African residents in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Mkabile, Nwabisa
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Double taxation -- South Africa , Double taxation -- Congo (Democratic Republic) , Income tax -- South Africa -- Foreign income , Income tax -- Congo (Democratic Republic) -- Foreign income
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:916 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017539
- Description: As a result of the different tax systems adopted by countries, foreign-sourced income earned by taxpayers may be subject to double taxation. This may therefore impede cross-border trade and investment. Double taxation relief is provided unilaterally, in terms of a country’s domestic laws or bilaterally in terms of Double Taxation Agreements. South African residents earning income from the Democratic Republic of Congo may be subject to tax in both countries. To eliminate such double taxation the South African Income Tax Act, No 58 of 1962, provides for unilateral relief from double taxation in the form of exemptions, rebates and deductions. The double tax agreement between South Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo came into effect recently and double taxation relief for South African residents is now also available in terms of tax treaty law. The objective of the research was to determine whether the combination of the unilateral measures and the double tax agreement provide relief in respect of all types of income earned by South African residents in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It was concluded that the double tax agreement, together with the unilateral relief provided for in the Income Tax Act will grant relief for all types of income earned by South African residents in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
An analysis of the transport infrastructure of the Cape Midlands and Karroo regions
- Authors: Staude, G E
- Date: 1973
- Subjects: Transportation -- South Africa -- Cape of Good Hope , Railroads -- South Africa -- Cape of Good Hope -- History , Railroads -- Construction and development -- South Africa -- Cape of Good Hope -- History , Transportation, Automotive -- South Africa -- Cape of Good Hope , Roads -- Construction and development -- South Africa -- Cape of Good Hope
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1068 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007697
- Description: From Preface: In 1966, the Karroo Development Association approached Rhodes University to undertake a socio-economic survey of their region. This survey was to form the basis for development planning in view of the expected benefit to the region of the Orange River Project. Similar requests were also received from the Midlands Planning Association and the South Eastern Areas Development Association. When Rhodes University consulted the Department of Planning, which strongly supported the principle of a regional survey, it was decided that, although Port Elizabeth and its hinterland comprised a logical economic unit, the area should be sub-divided. The University of Port Elizabeth was entrusted with the responsibility for an analysis of the metropolitan area, while the Institute of Social and Economic Research of Rhodes University was commissioned to undertake a socio-economic survey of the inland areas. This thesis on the transport infrastructure of the Cape Midlands and Karroo Regions represents one aspect of the survey.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1973
- Authors: Staude, G E
- Date: 1973
- Subjects: Transportation -- South Africa -- Cape of Good Hope , Railroads -- South Africa -- Cape of Good Hope -- History , Railroads -- Construction and development -- South Africa -- Cape of Good Hope -- History , Transportation, Automotive -- South Africa -- Cape of Good Hope , Roads -- Construction and development -- South Africa -- Cape of Good Hope
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1068 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007697
- Description: From Preface: In 1966, the Karroo Development Association approached Rhodes University to undertake a socio-economic survey of their region. This survey was to form the basis for development planning in view of the expected benefit to the region of the Orange River Project. Similar requests were also received from the Midlands Planning Association and the South Eastern Areas Development Association. When Rhodes University consulted the Department of Planning, which strongly supported the principle of a regional survey, it was decided that, although Port Elizabeth and its hinterland comprised a logical economic unit, the area should be sub-divided. The University of Port Elizabeth was entrusted with the responsibility for an analysis of the metropolitan area, while the Institute of Social and Economic Research of Rhodes University was commissioned to undertake a socio-economic survey of the inland areas. This thesis on the transport infrastructure of the Cape Midlands and Karroo Regions represents one aspect of the survey.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1973
An analysis of the turn-of-the-year effect in South African equity returns
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An analysis of ways in which the South African tax system could be simplified
- Authors: Young, Gail Jeni
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , South African Revenue Service , Tax administration and procedure -- South Africa , Tax accounting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178235 , vital:42923
- Description: It has been said that the fundamental paradox of tax simplification is that, despite consensus, almost every year tax rules become more complex. This thesis considers tax simplification measures which have been implemented internationally, in order to provide a basis for an analysis of ways in which the South African tax system could be simplified. A doctrinal methodology is applied, and an analysis is carried out of possible tax simplification measures, based on the commentary of experts in the field of tax law. Simplification measures adopted in the United Kingdom, Australia, the United States of America, Egypt, and certain European countries are discussed, together with their possible adoption in South Africa. Tax simplification has a broad scope. This research identifies four areas in which the South African tax system could simplified: the simplification of tax legislation, addressing the role of accounting in the simplification process, reducing the number of taxes currently levied, and finally addressing the complexities evident in the SARS e-filing system. This thesis illustrates several measures which could be used to address the current areas of complexity. Re-writing tax legislation to assist the understanding of taxpayers is suggested. An increase in the inclusion rate for individuals of capital gains in taxable income from 40% to 60% is suggested, to compensate for the loss of revenue due to the recommended repeal of donations tax and estate duty. Aligning tax legislation with accounting standards is identified as a possible area for simplification, as there are many similarities between the two systems. To address the usability of SARS’ e-filing platform, suggestions are made regarding the further pre-population of returns, introducing e-invoicing and providing a “sandbox” function that taxpayers could use to familiarise themselves with how e-filing works. This research highlights tax simplification as a process that needs to be prioritized in order to achieve the associated benefits. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Accounting, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
- Authors: Young, Gail Jeni
- Date: 2021-04
- Subjects: Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Income tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , South African Revenue Service , Tax administration and procedure -- South Africa , Tax accounting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/178235 , vital:42923
- Description: It has been said that the fundamental paradox of tax simplification is that, despite consensus, almost every year tax rules become more complex. This thesis considers tax simplification measures which have been implemented internationally, in order to provide a basis for an analysis of ways in which the South African tax system could be simplified. A doctrinal methodology is applied, and an analysis is carried out of possible tax simplification measures, based on the commentary of experts in the field of tax law. Simplification measures adopted in the United Kingdom, Australia, the United States of America, Egypt, and certain European countries are discussed, together with their possible adoption in South Africa. Tax simplification has a broad scope. This research identifies four areas in which the South African tax system could simplified: the simplification of tax legislation, addressing the role of accounting in the simplification process, reducing the number of taxes currently levied, and finally addressing the complexities evident in the SARS e-filing system. This thesis illustrates several measures which could be used to address the current areas of complexity. Re-writing tax legislation to assist the understanding of taxpayers is suggested. An increase in the inclusion rate for individuals of capital gains in taxable income from 40% to 60% is suggested, to compensate for the loss of revenue due to the recommended repeal of donations tax and estate duty. Aligning tax legislation with accounting standards is identified as a possible area for simplification, as there are many similarities between the two systems. To address the usability of SARS’ e-filing platform, suggestions are made regarding the further pre-population of returns, introducing e-invoicing and providing a “sandbox” function that taxpayers could use to familiarise themselves with how e-filing works. This research highlights tax simplification as a process that needs to be prioritized in order to achieve the associated benefits. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Accounting, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-04
An analysis on role of judges in interpreting tax legislation
- Authors: Chanhuwa, Mildred Kudzanai
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Law -- South Africa , Judicial discretion -- South Africa , Judicial opinion -- South Africa , Judges -- Attitudes -- South Africa , South Africa. Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4289 , vital:20644
- Description: This thesis focusses on the role of judges as interpreters of tax legislation. It examines the role of judges by analysing how the perceptions of judges can impact on how they interpret legislation. It also analyses various other factors that play a role when judges interpret legislation, in an effort to answer the question to what extent do philosophical theories and interpretative approaches explain the role of judges as interpreters? Jurisprudential theories such as the natural law theory, positivist theories, and American realist theories are used to analyse how judges interpret and how theorists think judges should play their interpretational role. It is noted that in pre-constitutional South Africa the courts followed a positivist paradigm; as a result, the judges used a strict literal approach to interpretation. The new Constitution brought a change in the jurisprudential paradigm accepted in South Africa and has transformed how judges perceive and carry out their role as interpreters of legislation. Judges have now adopted the purposive value-laden approach as authoritative. As custodians of the Constitution, judges should interpret provisions against the values imposed by it. The purposive value-laden interpretational approach allows judges to take into account more considerations and to weigh a provision against the constitutional values. Other issues discussed pertain to how institutional guidelines such as the doctrine of precedent and separation of powers, to a lesser extent, play a role in how judges interpret the law. It is demonstrated that the doctrine of precedent does not limit the role of judges but rather contributes to maintaining certainty, predictability and coherence in the legal system. It is also noted that judicial discretion is the mechanism by which judges use extra-legal factors such as public policy and moral considerations to assist in interpreting legislation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Chanhuwa, Mildred Kudzanai
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Law -- South Africa , Judicial discretion -- South Africa , Judicial opinion -- South Africa , Judges -- Attitudes -- South Africa , South Africa. Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4289 , vital:20644
- Description: This thesis focusses on the role of judges as interpreters of tax legislation. It examines the role of judges by analysing how the perceptions of judges can impact on how they interpret legislation. It also analyses various other factors that play a role when judges interpret legislation, in an effort to answer the question to what extent do philosophical theories and interpretative approaches explain the role of judges as interpreters? Jurisprudential theories such as the natural law theory, positivist theories, and American realist theories are used to analyse how judges interpret and how theorists think judges should play their interpretational role. It is noted that in pre-constitutional South Africa the courts followed a positivist paradigm; as a result, the judges used a strict literal approach to interpretation. The new Constitution brought a change in the jurisprudential paradigm accepted in South Africa and has transformed how judges perceive and carry out their role as interpreters of legislation. Judges have now adopted the purposive value-laden approach as authoritative. As custodians of the Constitution, judges should interpret provisions against the values imposed by it. The purposive value-laden interpretational approach allows judges to take into account more considerations and to weigh a provision against the constitutional values. Other issues discussed pertain to how institutional guidelines such as the doctrine of precedent and separation of powers, to a lesser extent, play a role in how judges interpret the law. It is demonstrated that the doctrine of precedent does not limit the role of judges but rather contributes to maintaining certainty, predictability and coherence in the legal system. It is also noted that judicial discretion is the mechanism by which judges use extra-legal factors such as public policy and moral considerations to assist in interpreting legislation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
An analysis, from a South African case law perspective, of the deductibility of losses due to embezzlement, fraud, theft, damages and compensation
- Authors: Jachi, Adelaide Gamuchirai
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: South Africa. Income Tax Act, 1962 , Tax deductions -- South Africa , Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Tax courts -- South Africa , Tax administration and procedure -- South Africa , Tax accounting -- South Africa , Income tax deductions for losses -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/60855 , vital:27846
- Description: When calculating the income tax payable for a year of assessment, a taxpayer deducts from his or her or its income, allowable deductions in terms of the preamble to section 11 and section 11(a) as read with section 23(g) of the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962. Amongst the expenditure and losses incurred by a taxpayer during a year of assessment, a claim may be sought for the deduction of losses incurred due to embezzlement, fraud and theft as well as damages and compensation. The requirements of the preamble and section 11(a) include the requirement that expenditure and losses must be incurred “in the production of the income”. Losses incurred due to defalcations, as well as expenditure on damages and compensation must satisfy this requirement to be allowed as deductions. The objective of the research was to analyse the judicial decisions dealing with “in the production of the income” in granting a deduction for income tax purposes in cases dealing with embezzlement, fraud and theft, and damages and compensation, to establish why the courts grant or disallow the deduction of expenditure and losses. A doctrinal research methodology was applied to the research. The provisions of the Income Tax Act, relevant case law relating to embezzlement, fraud and theft, and damages and compensation, and the contributions of the revenue authority and tax experts in articles of accredited journals, textbooks and other writings were analysed. The major conclusions drawn from the research were that losses due to defalcations are regarded as having been incurred “in the production of the income” if the taxpayer discharges the onus of proof that the risk of the act leading to misappropriation is an incidental risk of the business. Expenditure on damages and compensation is deductible provided the expense is attached to the performance of a business operation bona fide performed for the purpose of earning income and the expense is so closely connected with the business operation as to be regarded as part of the cost of performing it. Where negligence is attached to an expense or loss, the South African courts have held that negligence does not increase the likelihood of disallowing an expense or loss as not having been incurred “in the production of the income”.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Jachi, Adelaide Gamuchirai
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: South Africa. Income Tax Act, 1962 , Tax deductions -- South Africa , Taxation -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Tax courts -- South Africa , Tax administration and procedure -- South Africa , Tax accounting -- South Africa , Income tax deductions for losses -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/60855 , vital:27846
- Description: When calculating the income tax payable for a year of assessment, a taxpayer deducts from his or her or its income, allowable deductions in terms of the preamble to section 11 and section 11(a) as read with section 23(g) of the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962. Amongst the expenditure and losses incurred by a taxpayer during a year of assessment, a claim may be sought for the deduction of losses incurred due to embezzlement, fraud and theft as well as damages and compensation. The requirements of the preamble and section 11(a) include the requirement that expenditure and losses must be incurred “in the production of the income”. Losses incurred due to defalcations, as well as expenditure on damages and compensation must satisfy this requirement to be allowed as deductions. The objective of the research was to analyse the judicial decisions dealing with “in the production of the income” in granting a deduction for income tax purposes in cases dealing with embezzlement, fraud and theft, and damages and compensation, to establish why the courts grant or disallow the deduction of expenditure and losses. A doctrinal research methodology was applied to the research. The provisions of the Income Tax Act, relevant case law relating to embezzlement, fraud and theft, and damages and compensation, and the contributions of the revenue authority and tax experts in articles of accredited journals, textbooks and other writings were analysed. The major conclusions drawn from the research were that losses due to defalcations are regarded as having been incurred “in the production of the income” if the taxpayer discharges the onus of proof that the risk of the act leading to misappropriation is an incidental risk of the business. Expenditure on damages and compensation is deductible provided the expense is attached to the performance of a business operation bona fide performed for the purpose of earning income and the expense is so closely connected with the business operation as to be regarded as part of the cost of performing it. Where negligence is attached to an expense or loss, the South African courts have held that negligence does not increase the likelihood of disallowing an expense or loss as not having been incurred “in the production of the income”.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
An appraisal of basic infrastructural service delivery and community participation at the local level a case study of three municipalities in the Eastern Cape
- Authors: Mamba, Bonginkosi
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:958 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002692 , Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Description: Housing provision plays a vital role in meeting basic needs. Dwellings provide the security required for basic functioning and are thus essential for both human development and the alleviation of poverty. This study examines the levels and quality of basic infrastructural service delivery (electricity, water and sanitation) at local government level, focusing on housing. The local government areas studied include Grahamstown Fort Beaufort and Duncan Village. This was done for the purposes of analyzing the effectiveness of the existing housing policy with regard to the adequacy of scale, its developmental logic, implementation and coordination. Justification for basic infrastructural service delivery is based on the Basic Needs Approach [BNA] which forms the cornerstone of the World Bank’s delivery framework. The paper makes use of two methods: firstly, secondary sources are used to provide an impression of the broad policy framework focusing around basic service delivery with housing as the centrepiece. Specific attention is thus given to Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) as this is the level of policy-making responsible for the delivery of these services to communities. Secondly, previously un-analysed data drawn from a household social exclusion survey (2005-2006) conducted in three Eastern Cape municipalities (Buffalo City, Makana and Nkonkobe – representing respectively urban, small town, and rural areas) are evaluated. The data are analysed two ways – graphically and through a regression analysis – to test four hypotheses regarding basic service delivery. Graphical analysis demonstrates that services differ according to housing type and location. It was found that brick houses seem more likely to have better basic services than either shacks or mud dwellings. The results also show that there are inequalities in the provision of certain basic services such as water and sanitation between Duncan Village and Grahamstown. Overall, the results of this study show that government is still faced with major challenges in addressing housing backlogs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Mamba, Bonginkosi
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:958 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002692 , Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Description: Housing provision plays a vital role in meeting basic needs. Dwellings provide the security required for basic functioning and are thus essential for both human development and the alleviation of poverty. This study examines the levels and quality of basic infrastructural service delivery (electricity, water and sanitation) at local government level, focusing on housing. The local government areas studied include Grahamstown Fort Beaufort and Duncan Village. This was done for the purposes of analyzing the effectiveness of the existing housing policy with regard to the adequacy of scale, its developmental logic, implementation and coordination. Justification for basic infrastructural service delivery is based on the Basic Needs Approach [BNA] which forms the cornerstone of the World Bank’s delivery framework. The paper makes use of two methods: firstly, secondary sources are used to provide an impression of the broad policy framework focusing around basic service delivery with housing as the centrepiece. Specific attention is thus given to Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) as this is the level of policy-making responsible for the delivery of these services to communities. Secondly, previously un-analysed data drawn from a household social exclusion survey (2005-2006) conducted in three Eastern Cape municipalities (Buffalo City, Makana and Nkonkobe – representing respectively urban, small town, and rural areas) are evaluated. The data are analysed two ways – graphically and through a regression analysis – to test four hypotheses regarding basic service delivery. Graphical analysis demonstrates that services differ according to housing type and location. It was found that brick houses seem more likely to have better basic services than either shacks or mud dwellings. The results also show that there are inequalities in the provision of certain basic services such as water and sanitation between Duncan Village and Grahamstown. Overall, the results of this study show that government is still faced with major challenges in addressing housing backlogs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An assessment of e-tolling as a method of financing Gauteng roads
- Authors: Ponter, Lloyd Anthony
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Toll roads -- Taxation -- South Africa -- Gauteng , Electronic Road Pricing System -- South Africa -- Gauteng , Toll roads -- South Africa -- Gauteng -- Cost effectiveness
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:912 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017185
- Description: E-tolling was recently implemented on roads in Gauteng, South Africa. This gave rise to a great deal of protest by road users and a court battle between the South African National Roads Agency (SANRAL) and the Opposition to Urban Tolling Alliance, a body representing road users. The e-tolling system was criticised at various levels and on numerous grounds, some financial and others appearing to be emotional. This thesis attempted to analyse the various grounds for objection against the system, the main goal of the research being to analyse e-tolling in Gauteng to ascertain whether or not the introduction of e-tolling was justified or whether an alternative method of taxation to pay for the upgrading of Gauteng roads would have been more cost-effective. Secondary data in the form of documents from multiple sources was used in the analysis, including an Economic Impact Assessment that was one of the key inputs into the decision to introduce e-tolling. It was found that there are multiple problems plaguing the e-toll system and e-tolling is not the most cost-effective taxation method of paying for Gauteng roads. Using a fuel levy or general tax revenue available to the National Treasury were both found to be more cost-effective methods as they would have achieved the same result (repairing and upgrading specific Gauteng roads), at a cost of R20,0913 billion less than e-tolling. It was suggested that the best taxation method/s to pay for the roads would have been using a fuel levy and general tax revenue as the primary funding methods, with vehicle licensing fees and long distance toll roads as secondary methods to aid the primary methods.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Ponter, Lloyd Anthony
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Toll roads -- Taxation -- South Africa -- Gauteng , Electronic Road Pricing System -- South Africa -- Gauteng , Toll roads -- South Africa -- Gauteng -- Cost effectiveness
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:912 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017185
- Description: E-tolling was recently implemented on roads in Gauteng, South Africa. This gave rise to a great deal of protest by road users and a court battle between the South African National Roads Agency (SANRAL) and the Opposition to Urban Tolling Alliance, a body representing road users. The e-tolling system was criticised at various levels and on numerous grounds, some financial and others appearing to be emotional. This thesis attempted to analyse the various grounds for objection against the system, the main goal of the research being to analyse e-tolling in Gauteng to ascertain whether or not the introduction of e-tolling was justified or whether an alternative method of taxation to pay for the upgrading of Gauteng roads would have been more cost-effective. Secondary data in the form of documents from multiple sources was used in the analysis, including an Economic Impact Assessment that was one of the key inputs into the decision to introduce e-tolling. It was found that there are multiple problems plaguing the e-toll system and e-tolling is not the most cost-effective taxation method of paying for Gauteng roads. Using a fuel levy or general tax revenue available to the National Treasury were both found to be more cost-effective methods as they would have achieved the same result (repairing and upgrading specific Gauteng roads), at a cost of R20,0913 billion less than e-tolling. It was suggested that the best taxation method/s to pay for the roads would have been using a fuel levy and general tax revenue as the primary funding methods, with vehicle licensing fees and long distance toll roads as secondary methods to aid the primary methods.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
An economic analysis of eradicating alien vegetation as an alternative to conventional water supply schemes: a case study of the Krom and Kouga
- Authors: Carpenter, Robert Charles
- Date: 1999
- Subjects: Alien plants -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa , Kouga River (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1000 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002735 , Alien plants -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa , Kouga River (South Africa)
- Description: South Africa is classified as an arid to semi-arid region and water scarcity in South Africa has been identified as a key factor limiting socioeconomic development in the next century. In the Algoa region, the total urban plus agricultural water demand is expected to exceed the supply by the year 2005. The Kouga Working for Water Project aims to increase the base flow to the existing dams which supply the Port Elizabeth metropolitan area through the eradication of invasive alien trees in the riparian areas of the Krom and Kouga catchments. This thesis analyses the economic efficiency of optimal catchment management as a water supply scheme. A cost-benefit analysis is conducted for the Kouga eradication programme, and its desirability is evaluated in terms of the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) criteria. In order to compare the cost-e~i.ciency of the eradication programme to alternative water supply augmentation schemes the Unit Reference Value (URV) is calculated for the project. The NPV for the project is calculated using a discount rate of 7% and amounts to nearly R24 million. This positive NPV indicates that the project is economically desirable in that it results in the improvement of human welfare. The IRR decision rule supports this finding. The URV of the eradication scheme is found to be competitive to that generated by more conventional schemes. Considered in the evaluation of the project are a host of environmental benefits that accompany the eradication of alien vegetation. This is in contrast to alternative schemes which result in several detrimental impacts to the environment. The economic analysis concludes that the eradication of alien vegetation is an efficient and desirable alternative water supply augmentation scheme. The conclusions drawn from the analysis of the eradication programme in this catchment area can be extended to other catchment areas, with the aim of promoting the most efficient supply of water.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1999
- Authors: Carpenter, Robert Charles
- Date: 1999
- Subjects: Alien plants -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa , Kouga River (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1000 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002735 , Alien plants -- South Africa , Water-supply -- South Africa , Kouga River (South Africa)
- Description: South Africa is classified as an arid to semi-arid region and water scarcity in South Africa has been identified as a key factor limiting socioeconomic development in the next century. In the Algoa region, the total urban plus agricultural water demand is expected to exceed the supply by the year 2005. The Kouga Working for Water Project aims to increase the base flow to the existing dams which supply the Port Elizabeth metropolitan area through the eradication of invasive alien trees in the riparian areas of the Krom and Kouga catchments. This thesis analyses the economic efficiency of optimal catchment management as a water supply scheme. A cost-benefit analysis is conducted for the Kouga eradication programme, and its desirability is evaluated in terms of the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) criteria. In order to compare the cost-e~i.ciency of the eradication programme to alternative water supply augmentation schemes the Unit Reference Value (URV) is calculated for the project. The NPV for the project is calculated using a discount rate of 7% and amounts to nearly R24 million. This positive NPV indicates that the project is economically desirable in that it results in the improvement of human welfare. The IRR decision rule supports this finding. The URV of the eradication scheme is found to be competitive to that generated by more conventional schemes. Considered in the evaluation of the project are a host of environmental benefits that accompany the eradication of alien vegetation. This is in contrast to alternative schemes which result in several detrimental impacts to the environment. The economic analysis concludes that the eradication of alien vegetation is an efficient and desirable alternative water supply augmentation scheme. The conclusions drawn from the analysis of the eradication programme in this catchment area can be extended to other catchment areas, with the aim of promoting the most efficient supply of water.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1999
An emancipatory approach for innovative access to education in farm schools of the Eastern Cape, South Africa
- Authors: Robinson, Craig Grant
- Date: 2019
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/72462 , vital:30055
- Description: Expected release date-April 2020
- Full Text: false
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Robinson, Craig Grant
- Date: 2019
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/72462 , vital:30055
- Description: Expected release date-April 2020
- Full Text: false
- Date Issued: 2019
An empirical analysis of financial stress within South Africa and its apparent co-movement with financial stress emanating from advanced and emerging economies
- Authors: Graham, Brydone
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Financial crises -- South Africa Financial crises -- Developing countries Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa International economic relations South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1053 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006795
- Description: The identification of financial stress, and an understanding of financial contagion on a global scale, is of critical importance to a South African economy that is becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy. The last decade has been characterised by periods of high economic growth, but also periods of significant financial instability culminating in global economic crises. This study examines the extent to which the South African financial system is exposed to distress abroad by identifying and measuring the co-movement of financial stress originating from within and outside South Africa. The study can be separated into two sections: the identification of financial stress and the measurement of financial contagion. Using monthly data for the period 2000 to 2012, three indices were constructed for the emerging markets, advanced economies and South Africa using varianceequal weighting. The indices were tested for contagion using the Johansen and Jesulius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach supplemented with basic OLS architecture and Impulse Response analysis. The results indicate the three constructed indices were highly accurate at identifying the intensity and timing of financial stress over the three regions respectively. It was found that the South African financial sector is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from advanced economies. The results obtained for financial stress emanating from emerging markets were not as conclusive and found to be insignificant. Overall, it is clear that the methods employed to identify financial stress are highly accurate and that South Africa is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from abroad. It is clear that advanced economies have a greater ability to affect financial stress in South Africa via contagion. It must be noted that this does not conclude that South Africa is not affected by emerging market crises, but that these crises tend to affect South Africa through advanced economy channels as defined within this thesis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Graham, Brydone
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Financial crises -- South Africa Financial crises -- Developing countries Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa International economic relations South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1053 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006795
- Description: The identification of financial stress, and an understanding of financial contagion on a global scale, is of critical importance to a South African economy that is becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy. The last decade has been characterised by periods of high economic growth, but also periods of significant financial instability culminating in global economic crises. This study examines the extent to which the South African financial system is exposed to distress abroad by identifying and measuring the co-movement of financial stress originating from within and outside South Africa. The study can be separated into two sections: the identification of financial stress and the measurement of financial contagion. Using monthly data for the period 2000 to 2012, three indices were constructed for the emerging markets, advanced economies and South Africa using varianceequal weighting. The indices were tested for contagion using the Johansen and Jesulius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach supplemented with basic OLS architecture and Impulse Response analysis. The results indicate the three constructed indices were highly accurate at identifying the intensity and timing of financial stress over the three regions respectively. It was found that the South African financial sector is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from advanced economies. The results obtained for financial stress emanating from emerging markets were not as conclusive and found to be insignificant. Overall, it is clear that the methods employed to identify financial stress are highly accurate and that South Africa is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from abroad. It is clear that advanced economies have a greater ability to affect financial stress in South Africa via contagion. It must be noted that this does not conclude that South Africa is not affected by emerging market crises, but that these crises tend to affect South Africa through advanced economy channels as defined within this thesis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
An empirical analysis of the long-run comovement, dynamic returns linkages and volatility transmission between the world major and the South African stock markets
- Authors: Chinzara, Zivanemoyo
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:970 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002704 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Description: The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Chinzara, Zivanemoyo
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:970 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002704 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Description: The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An empirical investigation into the determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An entrepreneurial framework for deciding on the implementation of large format digital printing internationally
- Adendorff, Christian Michael
- Authors: Adendorff, Christian Michael
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Entrepreneurship , Success in business , Business -- Technological innovations , Digital printing
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1169 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002785 , Entrepreneurship , Success in business , Business -- Technological innovations , Digital printing
- Description: This study focuses on entrepreneurs within the SME sector using large format digital printing (LFDP) because of the changes in technology that influences the decisionmaking processes of the entrepreneur in the purchasing of a new LFDP. These fast changes are likely to continue and can cause technologies to become obsolete overnight. The entrepreneurs within the LFDP industry find themselves in the midst of these fast changes and are faced with a dilemma. On the one hand, they need to make sure that the technology used produces consistent and quality products. On the other hand, the entrepreneur needs to ensure an optimal return on investments. From the literature and the findings of the study, the researcher recommends a change to an existing model on a consultant involvement purchase of high technology products, which is then adapted to integrate resource-forecasting areas together with timing and type of information required as well as external environment scanning. The existing model’s focus is on the individual’s ability to make decisions based on their own knowledge. However, by integrating technology forecasting components, and scanning the business environment and resource forecasting needed the decision-maker will be better equipped to make decisions that also takes into account the external environment. This will also allow them to plan and manage growth in a systematic way. Therefore the proposed model takes into account individual capabilities and technology forecasting components that can facilitate the decision-making process. The adapted model on decision-making clearly delineates that the combination of entrepreneurial qualities and technology forecasting techniques in the LFDP industry will ultimately assist the entrepreneur on various levels in deciding on a new LFDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Adendorff, Christian Michael
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Entrepreneurship , Success in business , Business -- Technological innovations , Digital printing
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1169 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002785 , Entrepreneurship , Success in business , Business -- Technological innovations , Digital printing
- Description: This study focuses on entrepreneurs within the SME sector using large format digital printing (LFDP) because of the changes in technology that influences the decisionmaking processes of the entrepreneur in the purchasing of a new LFDP. These fast changes are likely to continue and can cause technologies to become obsolete overnight. The entrepreneurs within the LFDP industry find themselves in the midst of these fast changes and are faced with a dilemma. On the one hand, they need to make sure that the technology used produces consistent and quality products. On the other hand, the entrepreneur needs to ensure an optimal return on investments. From the literature and the findings of the study, the researcher recommends a change to an existing model on a consultant involvement purchase of high technology products, which is then adapted to integrate resource-forecasting areas together with timing and type of information required as well as external environment scanning. The existing model’s focus is on the individual’s ability to make decisions based on their own knowledge. However, by integrating technology forecasting components, and scanning the business environment and resource forecasting needed the decision-maker will be better equipped to make decisions that also takes into account the external environment. This will also allow them to plan and manage growth in a systematic way. Therefore the proposed model takes into account individual capabilities and technology forecasting components that can facilitate the decision-making process. The adapted model on decision-making clearly delineates that the combination of entrepreneurial qualities and technology forecasting techniques in the LFDP industry will ultimately assist the entrepreneur on various levels in deciding on a new LFDP.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003